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Some coffee industry experts have been drawing comparisons between the \u200bcoffee and cocoa markets, projecting that coffee prices will sink in coming months, just as cocoa prices crashed after the chocolate-making \u200cingredient hit an all-time high in 2024.<\/strong><\/p>\n Whether coffee will replicate cocoa\u2019s downward price curve was a focus of discussions at last week\u2019s annual convention of the National Coffee Association in Tampa, Florida.<\/p>\n \u201cI would be shocked if it did not happen,\u201d said Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, \u200ba division of Zaner. \u201cI do think coffee is the new cocoa,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Cocoa prices in New York hit a \u200brecord high in December 2024 at over $12,000 per ton as poor weather in producing countries squeezed supplies. But \u2060just over a year later, cocoa plummeted more than 70% as consumers cut back on high-end chocolate and chocolate makers reduced packaging size, \u200bor reformulated candy bars with cheaper alternatives to cocoa.<\/p>\n Like cocoa, arabica coffee also rose as negative weather in the tropics hampered \u200bproduction. It hit a record high in February 2025 and stayed pricey as U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs distorted coffee trade. The expectation of a sharp recovery in production in top grower Brazil, however, led prices downward this year.<\/p>\n \u201cI think coffee prices will be at $2 (per pound) by the end of the year,\u201d \u200bGarner said. She thinks high prices are hurting demand.<\/p>\n Avere Commodities\u2019 coffee analyst Digby Beatson-Hird believes New York coffee will drop \u200beven further, to $1.80 per pound this year. The market closed at nearly $2.93 per pound on Tuesday.<\/p>\n CUTTING COSTS<\/strong><\/p>\n An NCA poll of 1,500 people in the U.S. \u200cin \u2060January found that 61% of respondents took actions to cut spending on coffee. Some reduced visits to coffee shops and drank more at home, while others switched to cheaper brands. The number of coffee drinkers, however, did not fall, NCA said.<\/p>\n The industry also responded, said David Behrends, managing partner and head of trading at Sucafina SA, one of the world\u2019s largest coffee merchants.<\/p>\n More expensive \u200bmild arabicas, such as Colombian and \u200bCentral American coffees, have \u2060lost market share, he said, while cheaper robusta beans gained.<\/p>\n Coffee demand stalled in 2025, said Carlos Mera, chief coffee analyst for Dutch bank Rabobank, which saw no growth last year compared to \u200ba historical demand increase of 2.3% per year before the pandemic.<\/p>\n Mera said coffee\u2019s recent price \u200bfall will eventually \u2060reach consumers and boost demand again. He expects a 2% increase in 2026.<\/p>\n Demand numbers show a sharp difference between coffee and cocoa, and might explain why some doubt coffee prices will decline like cocoa did.<\/p>\n An expected record Brazil coffee crop may not bring much price relief to \u2060the market, \u200banalysts said.<\/p>\n Farmers are well capitalized and will sell gradually, likely keeping some \u200bvolumes to replenish their stocks, said Cleber Castro, a sales representative for dozens of farms in Brazil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n