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BRUSSELS: The El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean could be one of the strongest on record, with the potential to cause floods, droughts, extreme heat and crop losses across the world.<\/span><\/p>\n The phenomenon, which the World Meteorological Organization expects to reach peak intensity by early 2027, could result \u200bin 451,000 excess deaths by February, the University of Chicago\u2019s Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday.<\/span><\/p>\n Here\u2019s what you need to know.<\/span><\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation cycle, a climate pattern that influences weather around the world.<\/span><\/p>\n It tends to cause higher global temperatures and disrupt rainfall pattens across large regions \u2013 meaning drought in some areas and heavy rains in others.<\/span><\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o typically occurs every two to seven years, when weakening trade winds result in warmer waters in the eastern \u200bPacific.<\/span><\/p>\n Elevated Pacific Ocean temperatures are the telltale sign that El Ni\u00f1o is forming.<\/span><\/p>\n This month equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures hit \u200b3.05 degrees Celsius (5.49 Fahrenheit) above normal levels \u2013 the highest temperature anomaly for any El Ni\u00f1o since records began, and far above \u2060the 0.5\u00b0C threshold for defining the phenomenon, data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, showed.<\/span><\/p>\n The government agency formally declared El Ni\u00f1o conditions had \u200bbegun in June.<\/span><\/p>\n Equatorial Pacific temperatures of 0.5\u00b0C above the norm constitute a weak El Ni\u00f1o, versus 1.0\u00b0C for a moderate one, 1.5\u00b0C for a strong one, and 2.0\u00b0C \u200bfor a very strong one, according to NOAA.<\/span><\/p>\n The WMO does not officially use the term super, but forecast this month that the developing El Ni\u00f1o will intensify into \u201ca very strong event\u201d with significant impacts on rainfall and temperatures.<\/span><\/p>\n The last strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2023 to 2024, combined with climate change, pushed 2024 to become the planet\u2019s hottest year on record. That year, Bolivia and Venezuela suffered \u200bdisastrous fires, torrential floods hit Nepal, Sudan and Spain, and heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia killed thousands.<\/span><\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is a \u200bnatural climate pattern and is not caused by climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n However, global warming can make El Ni\u00f1os more intense. Greenhouse gas emissions have increased the planet\u2019s average temperature by around 1.4C since pre-industrial times.<\/span><\/p>\n That \u200chigher baseline \u2060supercharges the effects of El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 enabling higher temperature spikes, more intense droughts, rains and the resulting disasters, including bushfires, floods and crop failures.<\/span><\/p>\n Some scientists have said the destruction likely from this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o could provide a foretaste of extremes that will become the norm in the coming decades even without an El Ni\u00f1o, as a result of human-caused global warming.<\/span><\/p>\n The combination of climate change and El Ni\u00f1o has led the WMO to warn that 2027 could be the \u200bhottest year since records began.<\/span><\/p>\n Of the 451,000 \u200bexcess heat-related deaths that the coming El \u2060Ni\u00f1o could cause, Nigeria is expected to suffer 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600, the Climate Impact Lab said.<\/span><\/p>\n Emergency response efforts, including early warning systems and protection for outdoor workers, could save tens of thousands of these lives, \u200bthe researchers said.<\/span><\/p>\n Typically, regions such as southern South America and parts of Central Asia get more rain in an El \u200bNi\u00f1o, which can trigger \u2060disastrous flooding. In 2024, floods in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil killed more than 180 people and displaced 600,000.<\/span><\/p>\n Southern Africa, Central America and Australia tend to dry out, with potentially severe consequences for crop yields and energy production from hydropower. Rice exporters expect the harvest in India, the world\u2019s top producer, to decline this year by the most since \u20602009 to \u200b2010, when an El Ni\u00f1o-induced drought curtailed production.<\/span><\/p>\n Nearly 50 million people are at risk of acute hunger by \u200bthe end of 2027 as a result of the developing El Nino, with southern Africa and South America among the worst-hit regions, according to U.N. World Food Programme forecasts.<\/span><\/p>\nWHAT IS EL \u200cNINO?<\/span><\/h2>\n
WHAT MAKES AN EL NINO SUPER?<\/span><\/h2>\n
IS EL NINO LINKED TO CLIMATE CHANGE?<\/span><\/h2>\n
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS EL NINO?<\/span><\/h2>\n