\n<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s election next week may change its leader, but not its strategy: Iran will remain its chief adversary, military force will continue to be its preferred tool and Palestinian statehood \u200ba distant prospect, regional policymakers and analysts say.<\/strong><\/p>\n That is because the strategic assumptions underpinning Israeli policy were hardened by the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israeli communities by \u200cPalestinian militant group Hamas and by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.<\/p>\n If anything, Israel could toughen its security policy, the analysts said, as victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of far-right coalition partners could embolden him to step up the war with Iran, tighten Israel\u2019s grip on the occupied West Bank and push diplomacy further to the margins.Israel\u2019s security doctrine now rests on three pillars: breaking Iran, holding buffer zones beyond its borders and using force to deter enemies.<\/p>\n The real \u200bdivide is one of degree rather than direction \u2014 how aggressively Israel fights its wars, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether any leader opts for diplomacy, the \u200banalysts said.<\/p>\n From Tehran to Riyadh, Tuesday\u2019s election is not seen as a potential turning point but as a test of whether the Middle East is settling into \u2060a long confrontation, where wars ebb and flow while the underlying conflicts are unresolved.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Netanyahu is elected, he\u2019ll do whatever he thinks he wants to do,\u201d said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu. \u201cExpansion of \u200bthe settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue.\u201d\u201dWhat you see now is what you\u2019ll see after the election, maybe even more aggressively,\u201d he said. \u201cAs long as Iran is in such \u200ba situation, it\u2019s a waste of time talking about Palestine.\u201d<\/p>\n Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritise \u201cprevention and offence over containment and defence\u201d, including pre-emptive strikes to thwart emerging threats, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximising its independence in armaments.<\/p>\n WHY THE COURSE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE<\/p>\n The election pits Netanyahu\u2019s right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot\u2019s Yashar party.Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib sees no prospect of a fundamental shift in \u200bpolicy towards the Palestinians, with Israeli political parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion moves further to the right.\u201cThe substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and \u200byes to further settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n A government led by Netanyahu\u2019s opponents might seek to repair Israel\u2019s international standing by curbing some settler violence or pursuing settlement expansion with less fanfare. But \u200csuch changes \u2060would be a shift in style rather than substance, al-Khatib said.<\/p>\n Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel\u2019s security establishment and much of its political class share a common strategic outlook, centred on confronting Iran, maintaining \u201cforward defence\u201d and preserving military deterrence, reducing the scope for big policy shifts.Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has conducted research in the West Bank, said growing settler violence, mounting Palestinian frustration and the absence of a \u201cpolitical horizon\u201d had created combustible conditions, where even a minor trigger could spark a wider uprising.<\/p>\n \u2018VENOMOUS OCTOPUS\u2019<\/p>\n Some regional policymakers ask whether Israel\u2019s confrontation with Iran has become the organising principle of Middle East \u200bsecurity, regardless of who wins the election.<\/p>\n US President Donald \u200bTrump\u2019s praise of Netanyahu as a \u201cgreat warrior prime \u2060minister\u201d has reinforced expectations that the Israeli leader will try to finish the campaign against Tehran if he retains power.<\/p>\n Netanyahu has made clear his ambitions extend beyond containing Iran to toppling its clerical rulers.<\/p>\n \u201cCompleting the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus,\u201d he said in a \u200bspeech this week.<\/p>\n But military and political analysts question whether anything short of a US-Israeli ground invasion would force Tehran to abandon what it views \u200bas its core security interests in \u2060what it sees as an existential fight.After surviving months of war, Iran may be betting it can outlast its opponents while continuing to exert pressure through regional allies.\u201dThis is a quagmire,\u201d Young said. \u201cThe Iranians can outlast Trump.\u201dHezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been weakened, but the broader network of Iran-aligned groups has survived and the conflict could strengthen Tehran\u2019s determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent, the analysts said.For all the alarm Netanyahu \u2060causes in the \u200bArab world, some Gulf leaders still see him as the Israeli politician most likely to keep Iran under pressure.<\/p>\n This creates a \u200bdilemma for them. They oppose what they view as his expansionist policies but want Iranian influence curbed.<\/p>\n \u201cNetanyahu\u2019s policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon are damaging,\u201d said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center. \u201cAs for Iran, a settlement is needed \u200bbefore the conflict escalates further. If Iran\u2019s role is not curbed, the region could be heading toward 50 years of Iranian hegemony.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n