Pasni port deal would pivot Pakistan from China to US

Pakistan’s reported proposal to grant the United States a development and management role at Pasni port, as reported by the Financial Times, marks one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent years.

Situated along the Arabian Sea – just 113 kilometers from China-operated Gwadar port, 161 km from Iran and approximately 286.5 km from India’s Chabahar port – Pasni’s geostrategic position places it at the intersection of major regional rivalries involving China, India, Iran, the United States and other key actors such as Saudi Arabia and Gulf investors.

The port’s location also carries implications for Afghanistan, Central Asia and broader maritime security in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.

This development follows the September 25 meeting between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Army Chief General Asim Munir and US President Donald Trump, signaling a potential new phase in US-Pakistan geostrategic engagement.

The proposal, which had already been floated and discussed with US officials before the meeting, is part of Islamabad’s broader attempt to diversify its foreign partnerships, reduce reliance on Beijing and attract US, Iranian, and Saudi investments amid deepening economic challenges.

While significant, the plan remains exploratory, with no formal agreement yet confirmed by either Pakistan or the US. However, if realized, it would mark a geopolitical earthquake, reshaping regional power dynamics with implications far beyond.

New Strategic Pivot

The blueprint envisions transforming Pasni — currently a modest fishing town — into a strategic logistics and mineral export hub. The project aims to link the port to Balochistan’s vast mineral reserves, including the Reko Diq copper and gold mines, through a new railway network. Estimated at US$1.2 billion, the project is expected to be financed through a combination of Pakistani federal funds and US-backed development finance.

The US interest in Pasni is both economic and strategic. According to the Financial Times report, the port would serve as a gateway for exporting critical minerals such as copper, antimony and neodymium — key inputs for battery technology, missile production and advanced electronics.

On September 8, 2025, Pakistan exported a small trial shipment of these minerals to Missouri-based US Strategic Metals (USSM), following the signing of a $500 million memorandum of understanding with Pakistan’s Military Engineering Corps.

The partnership, aimed at developing and refining Balochistan’s critical mineral resources, marks a major step in expanding US–Pakistan economic engagement. USSM’s commercial director, Mike Hollomon, described the collaboration as an effort to “rekindle a dormant friendship” between Washington and Islamabad.

Strategic blow to China’s CPEC vision

For China, the Pasni development represents a strategic setback. The port’s proximity to Gwadar — the flagship of Beijing’s China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — directly undermines China’s long-term strategic objectives in the Arabian Sea. A US presence in Pasni would not only counterbalance Gwadar but could also reduce Beijing’s leverage over Pakistan’s critical infrastructure and mineral supply chains.

Over the years, China has invested over $60 billion in the CPEC, deploying personnel, technology and capital to secure a reliable trade and energy corridor to the Arabian Sea. Many Chinese workers have been killed in Balochistan in terrorist attacks while working on these projects. Pakistan’s move to invite American strategic and commercial involvement so close to Gwadar amounts to a significant betrayal of Beijing’s trust.

Earlier, the US and Pakistan signed a mineral deal in Balochistan — a region where China already has substantial investments and stakes, including the Saindak Copper-Gold Mine and the Reko Diq copper and gold project.

This demonstrates Islamabad’s willingness to prioritize immediate financial incentives from Washington over long-term commitments to Beijing, especially after China indicated it could not fund certain sections of CPEC, after which Pakistan turned to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for funding. Beijing and Islamabad have wrestled over CPEC debt terms, with Pakistan asking for forbearance on payments and Beijing declining.

The reality is stark: the United States and China remain geostrategic rivals in the region, and it is inherently unnatural for two competing powers to coexist in the same strategic space.

By aligning with the US in Pasni, Pakistan would not only undermine Chinese interests in Balochistan and the Arabian Sea but also signal a transactional approach to its alliances, leveraging dollars from Washington when Beijing cannot meet Islamabad’s immediate needs.

For China, this should be a moment of strategic reckoning and a reminder that Islamabad’s loyalty is conditional, driven more by short-term economic gain than by enduring partnership.

Regional implications

The implications of the Pasni deal extend far beyond Pakistan and China.

For India, this development could complicate strategic connectivity projects such like Chabahar port in Iran, located just across the border from Pasni. Notably, the US recently revoked sanctions waivers for Chabahar, signaling waning American support for India’s westward connectivity efforts and its broader strategic interests in the region.

At the same time, a US presence at Pasni advances American interests in the Arabian Sea and indirectly strengthens Pakistan by providing Islamabad with enhanced strategic confidence and leverage. While India and the US are strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific, strategic cooperation between the US and Pakistan carries fundamentally different implications.

A US foothold at Pasni may allow Washington to reassert its influence in the region, but it could also institutionalize US-Pakistan defense engagement and boost Pakistan’s geopolitical confidence, strengthening its position vis-à-vis India.

Moreover, an American presence at such a strategic location at the mouth of the Arabian Sea — where India has vital maritime and energy interests — carries significant implications for regional power dynamics, simultaneously undermining India’s connectivity initiatives while advancing US and Pakistani interests.

For Iran, the move is alarming. Pasni offers Washington a potential maritime platform to monitor or pressure Tehran’s coastal infrastructure and shipping lanes. The port’s location would also enhance US operational flexibility in the event of a regional conflict involving Iran.

For Afghanistan, the development may herald a new era of US re-engagement. Reports that Washington is considering re-establishing access to Bagram Air Base suggest a broader military recalibration. A US logistical node at Pasni would significantly improve its ability to project power across Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, using Pakistan’s geography as a strategic launchpad.

Islamabad has framed its Pasni initiative as an exercise in “strategic diversification.” However, it appears more as a calculated geopolitical gamble. Historically, Pakistan has aligned with whichever power offers the greatest financial or military benefits — from being a US Cold War ally to joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative and now seemingly swinging back toward Washington.

While such balancing may bring short-term rewards, it often results in long-term instability. China has consistently supported Pakistan — diplomatically, economically, and militarily — even during Islamabad’s periods of isolation.

Beijing provided critical aid, defended Pakistan at multilateral forums and backed its security interests vis-à-vis India. Yet, despite this “iron brotherhood,” Pakistan’s recent moves show that geopolitical loyalty in Islamabad is negotiable.

America’s entry into Pasni would mark a decisive moment in Asia’s geopolitics. It would represent not just an economic collaboration but a strategic realignment with the potential to reshape power dynamics across the Arabian Sea, Central Asia, the Gulf and beyond.

For the US, Pasni offers a dual advantage — access to critical minerals and a strategic maritime presence near Iran, the Gulf and Chinese infrastructure. For Pakistan, it provides short-term relief and renewed American attention. For China, however, it is a strategic nightmare — a symbol of betrayal that undermines years of investment and trust.

In the final analysis, the Pasni plan underscores a fundamental truth of geopolitics: in an age of great-power rivalry, alliances built on interest rather than trust seldom endure.

Imran Khurshid (PhD) is an associate research fellow at the International Centre for Peace Studies (ICPS), adjunct fellow at the Peninsula Foundation and visiting faculty at Nalanda University, Rajgir, Bihar. His work has been published in Asia Times, The Diplomat Firstpost and peer-reviewed journals focused on India-US relations and Indo-Pacific security.
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