Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ cracking in the geopolitical wind

Vietnam has reportedly signed its largest-ever arms deal with Russia, a US$8 billion move that by any assessment marks a clear steer away from Washington’s orbit.

According to a recent New York Times investigation, “Vietnam and Russia have reinvigorated their military and political relationship.”

The report reveals Hanoi’s secret purchases of Russian weapons and the use of third-party intermediaries to process payments, all while quoting Vietnamese officials who say they still trust Moscow more than Washington.

That trust, the Times report suggests, stems from Donald Trump’s reversal of postwar reconciliation efforts dating back to the 1990s. The shift began with foreign aid cuts, followed by a proposed 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods in April.

Even after that figute was lowered to 20%, Vietnamese officials complained that American negotiators “promise one thing and do another,” offering vague plans only to hit Hanoi with new surprises, the latest involving tariffs on Vietnam’s growing furniture exports.

Moreover, Vietnam still faces a potential 40% duty on goods the US deems as being transshipped from third countries, a potent threat considering Vietnam’s intricate integration with Chinese supply chains for various products.

Vietnam enjoyed a $125.3 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024, one of the highest such figures among US trade partners, and shipments were up 28% in the first nine months of this year. But even after Trump met Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, relations are still clearly tense and uncertain.

Sources behind the Times leak are widely believed to come from factions opposed to Vietnam’s military bloc within the ruling Communist Party. US intelligence would have known these developments long ago, but journalistic rigor and multiple-source verification would have delayed publication until now.

And the timing is striking. The story lands just as To Lam prepares for his visit to London. Days earlier, the Associated Press reported on a Vietnam–Russia oil venture allegedly bypassing Western sanctions. Then the Times followed with the arms deal revelation. Coincidence? Unlikely.

Washington, meanwhile, remains silent: no threatened sanctions or scolding statements. This suggests the issue is playing out behind closed doors, as part of the ongoing negotiation over tariff terms. What Vietnam eventually secures in trade relief may well depend on how this geopolitical gamble unfolds.

Yet the more these leaks surface, the weaker Hanoi’s hand becomes at the bargaining table. In today’s post-Ukraine world, Vietnam is trying to convince itself it can maintain “strategic balance” among the great powers.

In reality, this proclaimed diversification looks more like a survival reflex rooted in Hanoi’s inability to detach from both American capital and Russian defense hardware.

While Hanoi publicly champions “bamboo diplomacy,” famously swaying with the geopolitical winds, foreign investors increasingly see a country trapped in strategic hesitation, too cautious to pick a side and therefore trusted by none.

This no-enemies neutrality may have once served as a shield, but it’s now arguably a source of mistrust, leaving Vietnam outside of the high-tech supply chains forming between the US, Japan and other trusted regional partners.

Buying Russian weapons isn’t new for Vietnam, whose forces still rely heavily on Soviet-era systems. But secretive delivery and payment amid sweeping and now intensifying US sanctions on Moscow are another story.

For To Lam, the big-ticket arms deal may serve a purpose far beyond the military. In Vietnam’s ongoing power realignment and pre-14^th National Party Congress factional jockeying, controlling the “military card” could help him consolidate influence just as rival political groups reposition.

A multi-billion-dollar contract with Moscow, even if economically risky, signals that Hanoi still claims “strategic independence” while in reality deepening its reliance on the same old network of interests.

If the deal stalls or is blocked by sanctions, To Lam can easily blame “external sabotage.” Meanwhile, Vietnam’s tariff framework with the US, its top export market, is in precarious limbo.

Only a few products, such as seafood and raw coffee beans, may qualify for exemptions from the 20% rate. The bigger negotiation issue, the 40% tariff on “transshipped” goods, will come down to how Washington decides to define the term.

To Lam is betting that Vietnam can bend with the geopolitical winds, gaining maximum benefits from all powers without committing to one. But when the wind blows more strongly from every direction and pressure to choose sides rises, how long can even bamboo keep from breaking?

Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, known as Mother Mushroom, is a Vietnamese writer and human rights commentator based in Texas, United States. She is the founder of WEHEAR, an independent initiative focusing on Southeast Asian politics, human rights and economic transparency.