Opinion | Trump’s nuclear turn risks upsetting fragile global strategic balance
US President Donald Trump’s recent call for the military to immediately restart nuclear weapons testing, apparently ending a 33-year moratorium that began under president George H.W. Bush in 1992, has sent shock waves across the globe. The announcement was made via social media moments before the much-anticipated meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping…
US President Donald Trump’s recent call for the military to immediately restart nuclear weapons testing, apparently ending a 33-year moratorium that began under president George H.W. Bush in 1992, has sent shock waves across the globe.
The announcement was made via social media moments before the much-anticipated meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries since Trump returned to the Oval Office in January.
Trump justified the nuclear testing call as a response to “other countries testing programmes”, emphasising that the United States must maintain parity with China and Russia while anticipating that their nuclear arsenals might match America’s within the next five years. Although US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has since clarified that there will be no nuclear explosions, the exact nature of the nuclear tests remains unclear.
The US already has one of the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear warheads, at 3,748 as of September 2023, according to the US State Department. The timing and tone of Trump’s post suggest a calculated act of geopolitical signalling, possibly as a response to Russia’s recent nuclear-capable weapon tests, including of a Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo and Burevestnik cruise missile, although Moscow insists no nuclear detonations occurred.
Moreover, Trump’s announcement was made less than 100 days before the expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last major arms control pact between the US and Russia, on February 4.
Meanwhile, Beijing – which is estimated to have doubled its stockpile of nuclear warheads to 600 in the last five years and recently displayed its advanced nuclear-capable weapon systems during the parade in September marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II – is modernising its strategic arsenal. The Pentagon has warned that China could possess more than 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.
