Deal breaker? Record Taiwan arms deal complicates Trump’s 2026 Beijing visit

Deal breaker? Record Taiwan arms deal complicates Trumps 2026 Beijing visit

As 2025 draws to a close amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing over new arms sales to Taiwan, analysts warn that the worsening atmosphere could weigh on the substance – if not the scheduling – of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China next year to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Washington’s announcement…

As 2025 draws to a close amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing over new arms sales to Taiwan, analysts warn that the worsening atmosphere could weigh on the substance – if not the scheduling – of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China next year to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Washington’s announcement last week of a US$11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest to date, has sharpened frictions at a sensitive moment, making it less likely that Beijing will be inclined to offer concessions or deliverables that Trump is seeking from the high-stakes sit-down.

In a statement to the South China Morning Post on Friday, a US State Department spokesperson pushed back against Beijing’s retaliation, saying the US “strongly objects to Beijing’s efforts to retaliate against US companies for their support of US arms sales that support Taiwan’s self-defence capabilities.”

Defending the move as consistent with the policy followed by nine different US administrations for “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”, the spokesperson urged Beijing to “cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure” and instead engage in “meaningful dialogue” with the self-governed island.

While China’s official response has so far been confined to “stern representations” and targeted sanctions on US defence firms, analysts say the scale and symbolism of the package complicate the political space ahead of any high-level engagement. Rather than scrapping the summit outright, Beijing may choose to limit its ambitions, signalling displeasure through a more restrained agenda or harder bargaining positions.

Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the US arms sales could negatively affect a potential Trump visit to China or limit the outcomes he seeks, but the situation “is still evolving”.

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