CFP semifinal first look: Previewing the penultimate round

Tenth-seeded Miami became the first double-digit seed in the 12-team era to crash the semifinals, muscling its way through the field by beating defending national champion Ohio State 24-14 on New Year’s Eve. Miami will face Ole Miss in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 8 (7:30 ET, ESPN). Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal, in his first playoff appearance, faces off against new Rebels coach Pete Golding, who piloted Ole Miss through choppy waters after the soap-opera departure of Lane Kiffin.

Fifth-seeded Oregon’s stifling defense shut down No. 4 Texas Tech, with freshman cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. picking off two passes and recovering a fumble to help the Ducks reach the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 9 (7:30 ET, ESPN). They’ll face No. 1 Indiana, which continued its storybook season by dispatching another of the sport’s blue bloods, No. 9 Alabama, in its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1968.

Here’s a closer look at the semifinal matchups.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami

When: Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN

What we learned in the quarterfinal: Lane Kiffin was more of a garnish than the main course at Ole Miss. Kiffin’s prowess as a playcaller is unquestioned, and so it wasn’t unreasonable to wonder how the Rebels would hold up without him — not just because of the controversy of his departure or the split allegiances of the offensive staff still spending half its time with Ole Miss, but simply because Kiffin always had an exceptional game plan. It turns out: no Kiffin, no problem. The Rebels racked up 473 yards against Georgia’s stout defense, boasting strong performances through the air (362 yards for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss) and on the ground (98 yards and a pair of touchdowns for running back Kewan Lacy). A fumble that led to a scoop-and-score and a botched fire-drill field goal try late in the first half actually kept the game closer than Ole Miss’s offense might’ve otherwise made it.

X factor: Destiny. It’d be easy enough to dissect the X’s and O’s, but here’s the more obvious storyline: Ole Miss is a team of destiny. After all, who could argue with a team whose lightning rod coach departs for a big payday with a conference foe before the playoff, only to see the makeshift staff and determined players run the table the rest of the way? It’d be the ultimate feel-good story with Lane Kiffin cast in the role of villain and Pete Golding as conquering hero. That Ole Miss is plenty good enough to turn the fairy tale into reality is unquestionably true, and yet it still would seem entirely magical. And college football always has a way of delivering a little magic.

They can reach the title game if …: They can slow Miami’s pass rush. The secret sauce for the Hurricanes’ first two playoff wins was the defensive front. But will that be as big an issue for the Rebels? Through the first three quarters of the Sugar Bowl, Georgia had just four pressures — and no sacks — despite 15 blitzed dropbacks. When the Dawgs finally did break through early in the fourth quarter, Chambliss shrugged off the pressure to deliver a trio of nifty throws, including a 44-yard completion that set up a touchdown. And Ole Miss did all this despite Lacy nursing a shoulder injury that had him at less than 100%. Still, Miami’s pass rush is better than what Georgia could muster, making the matchup between the Canes’ dynamic defensive front and Chambliss one that could decide which team advances to the title game. — David Hale

What we learned in the quarterfinal: Miami is elite in the trenches. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, who combined for three sacks, terrorized the Ohio State offense off the edge as Miami shut out the Buckeyes in the first half. Ohio State had only one first down in the first quarter and didn’t have a positive rushing total until its fourth possession. Offensively, the Hurricanes’ line leaned on Ohio State’s athletic defensive front and controlled the time of possession. Miami ultimately outrushed the Buckeyes, 153-45, and salted away the clock on the final drive to put the game away. The Hurricanes are for real up front.

X factor: Quarterback Carson Beck didn’t put up big numbers. He passed for just 138 yards. But Beck continually delivered in key situations, especially on third down. On Miami’s game-clinching touchdown drive, he converted two third downs with a pair of completions. He was also effective picking up first downs running the ball when nothing was open downfield. Most importantly, Beck didn’t turn the ball over. If he continues operating with this type of poise, the Hurricanes are going to be a tough out.

They can reach the title game if …: The offensive and defensive lines keep dominating. With Bain and Mesidor leading the way defensively, and All-American center James Brockermeyer and right tackle Francis Mauigoa setting the tone on offense, the Hurricanes have the talent and experience to control the game up front, as Texas A&M and Ohio State both found out. The Hurricanes might not be built to win shootouts. But they have the physicality to impose their will. That could very well be the recipe that propels them to their first national title since 2001. — Jake Trotter

When: Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN

What we learned in the quarterfinal: Any remaining doubts about Indiana’s ability to contend for — and win — its first national title vanished into the rarefied air surrounding the Rose Bowl. The Hoosiers clobbered Alabama in every facet, employing a balanced offense and stifling defense to overwhelm the Tide at the line of scrimmage. Indiana’s 10th-ranked run game didn’t get enough attention, but running back Roman Hemby propelled a ground game that kept the offense out of difficult situations. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, was excellent from the second quarter on, leading several long touchdown drives. Devan Boykin and others led a defense that proved again it’s among the nation’s best and most consistent units.

X factor: Wide receiver Charlie Becker. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are Indiana’s headliners at wideout, but Becker has come on strong late in the regular season and especially in his two postseason opportunities. Becker, who had his first two 100-yard receiving performances in consecutive games against Penn State and Wisconsin, led Indiana with 126 receiving yards against then-No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game victory. He had a leaping 21-yard catch for Indiana’s first touchdown against Alabama, and added a 30-yard catch.

They can reach the title game if …: The Hoosiers continue to control the line of scrimmage, achieve run-pass balance and limit big plays from Dante Moore and Oregon’s numerous playmakers. Consider that Indiana beat Oregon by 10 points at Autzen Stadium despite Mendoza throwing a pick-six early in the fourth quarter. The game really wasn’t that close, as Oregon didn’t score an offensive touchdown for the final 50:15. Indiana must apply pressure to Moore, who threw two interceptions in the first game but is capable of making any throw on the field. Indiana likely can’t afford another major mistake like Mendoza’s pick-six, so playing clean and avoiding difficult down-and-distances will be critical. — Adam Rittenberg

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What we learned in the quarterfinal: Oregon can play some nasty defense, too. Coach Dan Lanning challenged that group after saying it fell short of its standard in a 51-34 win over James Madison in the first round last week, when the Ducks gave up 500 yards of offense. It was a completely different story in the quarterfinals against one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Oregon forced four turnovers and had four sacks and seven tackles for loss, and the Ducks recorded their first bowl shutout since World War I. Brandon Finney Jr. had two interceptions and a fumble recovery in the win, while Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti formed a fearsome rushing duo from the edge.

X factor: We will stick with defense here to note how well Tuioti has played in the second half of the season for the Oregon defense. Tuioti, the Ducks’ third-leading tackler, has seven sacks in the past six games and especially made his presence felt against the Red Raiders. He noted that during the practice leading up to the game against Texas Tech, the coaches emphasized creating turnovers to keep the Red Raiders off the field. Oregon had only 17 takeaways in 13 games before Thursday.

They can reach the title game if …: Oregon can find its rhythm on offense. There is no question the Oregon offense did not play its best game, but some of that is because the Texas Tech defense created problems for the Ducks — completely shutting down the run game and forcing them out of their trademark rhythm. Dan Lanning also went for it eight times on fourth down, converting just four chances. It is one thing to be aggressive when you believe you are in control of the game, another if the game seems like it can swing on a fourth-down call. If Oregon can get into an offensive groove — and stay out of some of those fourth-down situations — and the defense can stay aggressive, they have a great chance to reach the title game. — Andrea Adelson