A historic Indiana or the restored U — who has the edge in the CFP title game?

The 2025 college football season was odd from the start.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning began the season as the least statistically proven Heisman favorite of all time and never came particularly close to (unreasonable) expectations. The sport’s most proven entities in a year of change were Clemson (preseason No. 4) and Penn State (No. 2); the Tigers began the season 1-3 and only ever rebounded so much, while the Nittany Lions lost six straight midseason games and fired head coach James Franklin.

Sure, defending national champion Ohio State spent most of the season ranked No. 1, but there was a steady undercurrent of uniqueness. Indiana — which began the season as the losingest major program in the history of college football — was the only team to get to 13-0. Texas Tech hadn’t won more than eight games in a season since 2009 but rode a brilliant transfer class to 12 wins and its first Big 12 title. Vanderbilt won 10 games for the first time.

(Even the smaller-school ranks dealt with usurpers and choppy waters. A seemingly untouchable North Dakota State team lost in the FCS round of 16, and the Bison’s conqueror, Illinois State, which had just a 0.3% chance of reaching the title game based on pregame projections, came within inches of the national title. In Division III, Wisconsin-River Falls, which suffered a losing season every year from 2001 to 2019, upset powerhouse North Central to win the crown.)

Now comes the payoff. In the last college football game of the season Monday night, preseason No. 10 Miami, which lost two of three in October to seemingly fall out of contention for a College Football Playoff bid, will face preseason No. 20 Indiana for the national title. The former began the season with national title betting odds of +3,000 (equivalent to 0.3%), while the latter was at +10,000 (0.1%).

This is a turning point for college football. The ruling class is discombobulated, and either a 1980s and early-2000s power (Miami) or a never-power (Indiana) will win the national title. The Hoosiers have been the most dominant team of the season and might have issued the two best performances in the history of the program — if such a thing is measurable — in their past two games. The Hurricanes were dead and buried but found a late rhythm and rode three full games of clutch moments to their best finish in 23 years. Now we get to find out who finishes with the ring. Hell yeah.

Here’s everything you need to know about the most unexpected national title game the sport has seen.

The U is (nearly) back

No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (13-2)

Miami’s postseason path: def. No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3 in the CFP first round; def. No. 2 Ohio State 24-14 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic quarterfinal; def. No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl semifinal

Two years ago, the world was leaving Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes behind. With coordination from particularly rich boosters, the school had pushed out Manny Diaz in favor of Cristobal, the former Hurricanes offensive lineman who was a member of Miami’s 1989 and 1991 national championship teams and was featured in “The U” documentary.

But while Diaz was fired after going 15-8 in his last two seasons, Cristobal was just 12-13 in his first two with an average SP+ ranking of 49.5. The defense was decent, but the offense was all over the place, and close-game miscues — because of occasional ultraconservatism and, in one instance, simple clock mismanagement — were rampant. There was no momentum whatsoever. Even in 2024, the offense added future No. 1 NFL draft pick Cam Ward and ignited, but the defense collapsed. After a 9-0 start the Canes crumbled, losing three of their last four.

You know how coaches always say, “Keep chopping wood”? It’s a well-worn saying that basically means that if you remain dedicated and keep doing your job, something good might happen. That tree might just fall. Miami is the embodiment of that saying in 2025. This time the defense ignited behind new coordinator Corey Hetherman, pass rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, and a transfer-heavy secondary. The offense, however, stuttered in key moments: New quarterback Carson Beck threw a combined six interceptions in upset losses to Louisville and SMU, and it again looked like a late-season collapse was coming.

Only it didn’t.

The Hurricanes won their last four regular-season games by an average of 38-10 and just barely eked out a playoff bid. They had to take to the road from the start but beat Texas A&M in absurdly windy conditions in College Station, then beat defending national champ Ohio State with relentless defense and some beautifully physical play on offense. And in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, Beck guided them on a last-minute touchdown drive to survive a wild battle with Ole Miss.

At ninth in SP+, the Hurricanes are about the same as last season on paper. But while they collapsed after stumbling in 2024, they got an extra mulligan this season and made the absolute most of it. They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by 10.4 points per game since their second loss. And somehow, after decades of disappointment since their last title in 2001, they’re 60 minutes away. We might have to make “The U Part 3.”

---

The most awe-inspiring run the sport has seen

No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (15-0)

Indiana’s postseason path: def. No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten championship game; def. Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential quarterfinal; def. Oregon 56-22 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl semifinal

Two years ago, Indiana was starting over yet again. After a semi-intriguing rise — including a 6-1 burst in the 2020 season during the COVID-19 pandemic that nearly resulted in a Big Ten championship game appearance — Tom Allen’s tenure ended like most do in Bloomington. Bill Lynch went 12-24 in his last three seasons on the job (2008-10), Gerry DiNardo went 9-27 (2002-04), Cam Cameron went 12-21 (1999-2001) and Bill Mallory went 11-22 (1994-96). Allen went 9-27 from 2021 to ’23 and left town.

I loved that the Hoosiers hired Curt Cignetti. He had won lots of games at different levels, turned an FCS underdog program (Elon) into an immediate playoff team and ushered in immediate FBS success at James Madison. He’s a unique guy with a unique amount of self-confidence — even in an alpha-heavy profession such as college football coaching — and I thought he was good enough that he might even be able to get the Hoosiers back to a bowl within a couple of years.

Cignetti, however, aimed just a little bit higher than that.

Indiana had enjoyed two AP Top 10 finishes in its history before Cignetti arrived; the Hoosiers are 2-for-2 since. The Hoosiers had won three bowl games in their history; they’ve won two this season. I’ve constantly made giant exclamations about how incredible and unprecedented this rise has been, and I still don’t think I’ve done it justice. We’ve never seen anything like it in this sport. We had unexpected national title runs, especially in the pre-BCS era (when, if you simply beat everyone on your schedule, you could probably get away with a title claim, even if you hadn’t actually played anyone great). And we’ve had plenty of rags-to-riches tales, most famously that of Bill Snyder and Kansas State. But while Indiana wasn’t nearly as destitute as Kansas State when Snyder took over, it also took Snyder a decade to build a title-worthy team. Cignetti did it almost instantaneously.

Using the evolving rules of the day — and awakening the sleeper cell that is Indiana’s alumni base, which is both well monied and enormous (and quite interested in adding to players’ pocketbooks, now that it’s both legal and tax deductible) — Cignetti needed fewer than two years, and almost no blue-chip recruits, to build the best team in college football and one of the best in recent history. The Hoosiers’ SP+ percentile rating is equal to that of dominant recent teams such as 2022 Georgia and 2023 Michigan, and if they beat Miami on Monday night, they’ll be the first 16-0 college football team since 1894 Yale. And let me tell you something: 1894 Yale ain’t played nobody. The Volunteer Athletic Association? Come on. The Crescent Athletic Club, founded by Yale alums? Talk about padding your schedule!

After an 11-win season and surprise playoff run in 2024, Cignetti brought in his second big wave of transfers — one that included soon-to-be Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza — and crafted something nearly perfect. The Hoosiers boast massive experience at every position, and nothing beats them twice. I have friends declaring “This can’t possibly be legal! They’re cheating somehow!” But there is of course no evidence of wrongdoing, only dominance. The Hoosiers are smart, talented and improving: Already No. 1 in SP+, they’ve still overachieved against SP+ projections by 18.9 points per game over their past four contests. They won’t even have to overachieve to win the title game: They’re projected favorites by 11.1 points.

---

Key injuries and absences

It’s pretty incredible considering the wear and tear that a playoff run now invites, but both of these teams should be mostly healthy Monday night. Indiana lost star defensive end Stephen Daley in the Big Ten championship game win over Ohio State, but defensive ends Mikail Kamara and Daniel Ndukwe have raised their game in his absence, and while Kamara left the semifinal win over Oregon injured on multiple occasions, he’s expected to be good to go.

Miami has dealt with quite a few more injury issues of late, but it’s looking pretty good, too. Cornerback Xavier Lucas will miss the first half after drawing a fourth-quarter targeting penalty in the second half against Oregon, but fellow corners OJ Frederique Jr. and Damari Brown are trending toward playing after recent injuries, and while defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. went down early with an ankle issue against Ole Miss, he’s expected back. The status of tight end Elija Lofton is in question, and Brown’s return isn’t guaranteed, but the Hurricanes are mostly fine.

---

Tale of the tape

Let’s start our title game deep dive by laying out the matchups. Pitting head coach vs. head coach, quarterbacks vs. defensive coordinators, running backs vs. linebackers, receiving corps vs. secondaries and offensive lines vs. defensive lines, let’s tell the tale of the tape.

Curt Cignetti vs. Mario Cristobal

Cristobal deserves the utmost credit for the way he brought his team together and kept it unified when things began to unravel in October. The Hurricanes have rallied around a very specific, physical identity, and they’ve won three playoff games primarily by knowing themselves really well. That’s a massive plus. But in Cignetti, Cristobal is going up against a coach on an all-time heater. It’s impossible to render a verdict that isn’t in the Hoosiers’ favor here.

Advantage: Indiana.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan) vs. Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman

Over the final nine games of 2024, Miami allowed at least 28 points seven times and at least 42 points three times. One of the biggest early warning signs came when the Hurricanes went to Berkeley and allowed 38 points and 7.6 yards per play to a Cal offense piloted by a guy named Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza completed only 11 of 22 passes, but among them were shots of 51, 56, 57 and 66 yards. He finished the season with 3,004 passing yards, 16 TDs, 6 interceptions and a Total QBR that ranked 55th nationally. With Kurtis Rourke graduating after one season leading Indiana’s offense — and with Mendoza’s younger brother Alberto having just redshirted in Bloomington — Cignetti brought Mendoza to town to lead the show in 2025. It was easy to be intrigued by the addition, but it was almost impossible to see what was coming next.

After a decent first couple of games, Mendoza has produced at least an 89.6 Total QBR in 10 of his past 13 games. He’s the nation’s leader with a 90.2 Total QBR for the season. He initially found fifth gear starting with a 73-0 win over Indiana State in Week 3. Sure, it was ISU, but he was 19-for-20 with five touchdowns, and that momentum carried over in a 21-for-23, five-TD performance against a much better Illinois defense the next week. (The Hoosiers beat the Illini, a top-10 team at the time, by 53.) The Heisman hype then kicked into major gear with Indiana’s comeback win over Penn State, a tough day for the IU offense that ended with a miraculous touchdown drive.

Mendoza was evidently saving his most ridiculous stats for the postseason: In his first two CFP games, he threw more touchdown passes (eight) than incompletions (five). He’s 31-for-36 for an almost perfectly controlled 369 yards and no interceptions, and not including sacks he has rushed 10 times for 86 yards. He hasn’t had to do a ton — his teams were winning by so much, so quickly — but he times every pass almost perfectly and trusts his receivers to make tough catches, and when he’s slightly late on a ball, he simply puts extra juice on it and gets it there anyway.

With this timing, however, almost comes an opportunity for Miami: Mendoza has become so comfortable in his reads that he has also failed to read pressure quite as well of late. In the past three games, he has thrown well, but he has also taken seven sacks with a sack rate of 10.6% (national average in 2025: 5.8%) and a 31.8% sacks-to-pressures ratio (national average: 17.8%).

If you can get to Mendoza, you can get him down. And almost no one brings quarterbacks to the ground as well as Miami. The Hurricanes are fifth in pressure rate (41.7%) and 10th in sack rate (8.1%), and like Mendoza they have raised their game in this regard: Even after recording only one sack of Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss in the semis, their sack rate is 9.8% in the CFP. Hetherman hasn’t had to blitz much to generate that pressure either, thanks to the absurd work of Bain and Mesidor.

Under Hetherman, Miami has leaped from 52nd to sixth in defensive SP+. Defensive play was huge for the Hurricanes as they were stabilizing down the stretch, and it has come through repeatedly in the playoff. I have to give the edge in this category to the Heisman winner — and, in Shanahan, the offensive coordinator who has developed such an absurd connection with Mendoza. But while Indiana stays on schedule as well as just about anyone, if Hetherman can dial up pressure in key moments, this game turns in an interesting direction.

Advantage: Indiana.

Indiana offensive line vs. Miami defensive line

Hot damn, this is an incredible matchup — maybe the best of the entire game.

Indiana’s offensive line — from left to right: tackle Carter Smith, guard Drew Evans, center Pat Coogan, guard Bray Lynch and tackle Kahlil Benson — has combined for 171 career starts, about 34 per man. Only Evans started fewer than 28. The Hoosiers’ offensive linemen commit few penalties, and for the season they’ve allowed just a 26.6% pressure rate (11th nationally) and a 13.9% run stuff rate (ninth). Even acknowledging Mendoza’s recent sack-prone ways, IU almost never moves backward; the Hoosiers have seen only 18.3% of their snaps gain zero or fewer yards in the CFP, easily the fewest overall, and their ability to create third-and-manageable has been their greatest superpower in 2025.

Miami’s defensive front, however, creates loads of negative plays. Bain and Mesidor have combined for 32 tackles for loss, 19 run stops, 19 sacks from 123 pressures, 5 forced fumbles and even an interception and 2 breakups. And in tackle Justin Scott (nine TFLs, 12 run stops), the Canes also have a disruptive presence in the middle. This is a stars-versus-stars matchup.

Advantage: Push

Indiana RBs vs. Miami LBs

In Mohamed Toure and Wesley Bissainthe, Miami has a strong combination of linebackers. Toure, a Rutgers transfer, is the sideline-to-sideline guy who makes tackles on a team-leading 14.2% of his snaps; Bissainthe, meanwhile, is a bit more dangerous in coverage, and about once per game he seems to show up in the backfield and hit someone really, really hard.

Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black can generally hit back. Indiana’s senior running back duo has combined for 25.3 carries per game with a dynamite 50.0% success rate*. The Hoosiers are 10th nationally in rushing success rate, and they’re first in standard downs** success rate.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down and 100% on third or fourth.)

(** Standard downs: First downs, second-and-7 or less and third- or fourth-and-4 or less.)

While the offensive line obviously has a lot to do with that, both the 210-pound Hemby and the 211-pound Black average 3.3 yards per carry after contact. They are huge reasons the Hoosiers are never off schedule.

Advantage: Indiana

Indiana receiving corps vs. Miami secondary

Injuries and shuffling have required Hetherman to start seven different defensive backs in three CFP games, and none of them are Damari Brown, who had moved into the starting lineup at corner down the stretch as the Miami defense was catching fire. It was a skeleton crew by the end of the Ole Miss game, but as mentioned above, Frederique should be back. Even with Brown still uncertain and Lucas out for the first half, Miami should have a strong lineup with steady safeties Zech Poyser and Jakobe Thomas, corners Frederique and Ethan O’Connor (who has allowed just 5-for-14 passing in coverage with three breakups in the CFP) and the stick of dynamite known as Keionte Scott at nickel. Scott has three tackles for loss, two sacks and a forced fumble in the CFP; he also snagged the 72-yard pick-six that changed the Ohio State game. He is Miami’s third-best defender after Bain and Mesidor.

Injuries can hurt in the short term but help in the long term. Miami has learned that with the recent emergence of O’Connor, but Indiana’s receiving corps has become nearly the best in the country in part because of the same phenomenon. As both Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. were battling injuries down the stretch, 6-foot-4 sophomore Charlie Becker was asked to raise his game. Wow, did he do so. After catching only six balls in the first eight games of the season, he has caught 24 of them, for 509 yards and three touchdowns, in the past seven. He had 100-yard games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, and he showed off major downfield prowess against both Alabama and Oregon.

With Sarratt and Cooper healthy again, Becker and tight end Riley Nowakowski have given Indiana too many playmakers to account for.

Indiana receivers in two CFP games
Sarratt: 11-for-12 for 115 yards and three TDs
Cooper: 6-for-8 for 62 yards and two TDs
Nowakowski: 5-for-6 for 54 yards
Becker: 4-for-5 for 99 yards and two TDs

Miami’s secondary is strong, but I’m not sure I’d pick against Indiana’s receiving corps in any matchup.

Advantage: Indiana.

In four matchups here between the Indiana offense and Miami defense, I’m giving Indiana the edge in three, with one push. It’s vital that Miami’s dynamite defensive front plays its best game of the season for the Hurricanes to hold up.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck (and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson) vs. Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines

We can probably surmise that “Big, burly manball with an Air Raid route tree” was the vision when Cristobal hired former Dana Holgorsen protege Shannon Dawson as offensive coordinator. We saw a particularly incredible version of that vision in 2024, as physical running back Damien Martinez rushed for 1,000 yards while Cam Ward was winging the ball all over the field and making himself a top draft pick.

The 2025 edition hasn’t been as smooth to watch, resorting to lowest-common-denominator ball that focuses primarily on avoiding negative plays even if it means almost never creating big plays.

The Hurricanes run on standard downs and pass on passing downs, and Beck’s main job has simply been to keep the chains moving and the defense off the field. Miami has topped 40 points only twice in its past 12 games and has averaged just 19.3 offensive points per game in the CFP, but the Hurricanes’ average time of possession (33:42) is fifth nationally, and they’ve averaged an impressive 37:21 in the past two games. Consequently, the Miami defense hasn’t been on the field much and has allowed 14.7 points per game in the CFP.

There’s not much margin for error in this style of ball, but while Beck’s numbers pale in comparison to Ward’s, he’s doing his job. And in the first genuine must-score drive of the postseason, Beck took his team 75 yards in 15 plays and scored the winning points with his legs.

The Hoosiers do a beautiful job of containing opposing offenses, positioning themselves in a way that drives specific decisions from quarterbacks and pouncing on any mistakes. They also are almost disturbingly well prepared: In their past 11 games, they’ve picked off a pass on the first drive five times. That, of course, includes D’Angelo Ponds‘ game-opening pick-six against Oregon in the semifinals.

Occasionally a team can break contain — Oregon got a couple of big gainers after the game was out of reach — but the Hoosiers never seem to let the same thing beat them twice. Beck punished a couple of busted coverages against Ole Miss, and Miami actually produced a couple of rare long touchdown passes, but for the most part the Hurricanes will be forced to nibble with short passes and hope to move the chains on third down. Still, if Beck can simply avoid an early pick, he’ll be doing better than a lot of his cohorts have against Indiana.

Advantage: Indiana

Miami offensive line vs. Indiana defensive line

As with the trench play when Indiana has the ball, this is a matchup that (A) both teams tend to win and (B) Miami absolutely has to win. That’s easier said than done. Indiana ranks second in stuff rate (29.1% of opponents’ rushes gain zero or fewer yards, and that doesn’t even include sacks), and they’re seventh in sack rate (8.6%) despite sending more than four pass rushers only 20.3% of the time (110th). Tackles Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino have combined for 10.5 sacks and 19 run stuffs — uniquely disruptive totals for interior linemen — and while star Daley was lost to injury before the CFP, fellow ends Kamara and Ndukwe have bumped up their production, with 5.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 run stops, 11 pressures and a forced fumble in two CFP games. Ndukwe and Landino absolutely dominated against Oregon.

Still, Miami has a devastating (and enormous) pair of tackles in Markel Bell (6-foot-9, 345 pounds) on the left and All-American Francis Mauigoa (6-foot-6, 335) on the right, and the interior line is experienced and sturdy. Miami hasn’t moved the ball with extreme efficiency in the CFP, but the Canes have gained zero or fewer yards just 26.0% of the time; only Indiana’s percentage is lower. And running behind Bell has generated major playoff success.

One of the main problems for Miami in this game is that everything the Hurricanes need to do well to win is something Indiana also does really well, if not better. But if the Miami line holds up enough to avoid negative plays and create manageable third downs, that’s a huge hurdle cleared.

Advantage: Push

Miami RBs vs. Indiana LBs

Like the rest of the Hoosiers’ lineup, Indiana inside linebackers Rolijah Hardy, Aiden Fisher and Isaiah Jones have been fantastic in 2025. They’ve combined for 35.5 tackles for loss, 18.5 sacks, 36 run stops, 3 interceptions, 9 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and a defensive touchdown. They pounce on the mistakes the defensive front creates, they clean up most messes they’re left with, and Hardy is one of the surest tacklers in the country — he misses tackles only 5.7% of the time.

Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown, however, have been the best running back duo in the CFP. I use “duo” loosely here, as Fletcher has done most of the work. He has generated by far the most yards from scrimmage of anyone in the 2025 CFP.

Injuries have held Fletcher back in the past, but he has rushed for 395 yards in three games, and he caught two balls for 25 against Ohio State as well. The junior averaged just 4.9 yards per carry in the regular season, but he has ramped that up to 6.8 in the CFP thanks in part to runs of 56 and 24 yards (plus 13 others of double digits). A lot of his work has come after contact, too: He has gone from a good 3.2 yards per carry after contact in the regular season to an outstanding 4.2 in the CFP.

The 220-pound Brown, meanwhile, has proved incredibly useful with his ability to generate tough yards, especially in short-yardage situations. He didn’t play in the first seven playoff quarters, but in the past five he has carried 19 times for 80 yards, scoring two touchdowns and rushing for 11 first downs.

Obviously, they can succeed only if their line gives them opportunities, but I would likely pick Fletcher and Brown against any linebacking corps.

Advantage: Miami

Miami receiving corps vs. Indiana secondary

Beck has basically leaned on four receivers in the CFP: Keelan Marion, Malachi Toney, CJ Daniels and Everyone Else.

Miami receiving in the CFP
Marion: 15-for-22 for 183 yards and 1 TD (2.3 yards per route)
Toney: 15-for-21 for 119 yards and 2 TDs (1.1 yards per route)
Daniels: 11-for-16 for 104 yards (1.2 yards per route)
Others: 15-for-23 for 103 yards and 1 TD (0.6 yards per route)

The go-to guy has changed from game to game. No one really did much in the ridiculous wind of College Station (Beck threw for only 103 yards against A&M), but Daniels caught five of six passes for 49 yards and four first downs — three on vital third downs — against Ohio State, and Marion was huge against Ole Miss (7-for-10 for 114 yards). Toney has been hit and miss: The freshman suffered three fumbles in the first two CFP games, and his 1.1 yards per route pales in comparison to his 2.6 in the regular season, but he has forced seven missed tackles on his 15 catches, and against Ole Miss he had both a huge, tackle-breaking third-down conversion that set up a touchdown in the first half, and he weaved his way for a 36-yard touchdown off a screen in the fourth quarter.

Matchups definitely determine who Beck leans on, but Indiana makes favorable matchups awfully hard to find. Ponds is one of the most celebrated corners in college football, and for the season, Jamari Sharpe has allowed fewer long completions and a lower QBR than Ponds. Nickel back Devan Boykin has been even stingier than Sharpe, and ball-hawking safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell have combined for 10 interceptions and nine breakups.

Beck could feasibly end up with a pretty high completion rate, as short passes are a big part of Miami’s game, and Ponds and Sharpe have allowed a 64% completion rate on passes 10 or fewer yards downfield. None of those completions have broken for big gains, however — in fact, none have gained more than 15 yards. It’s really hard to nibble your way to success against the Hoosiers, and if Miami doesn’t take some risks to hit a big play or two, it’s going to be hard to score enough points.

Advantage: Indiana

In four categories pitting Miami’s offense against Indiana’s defense, the Hoosiers have two advantages, and the Hurricanes have one with one super important push up front. Once again, Miami absolutely must win in the trenches.

Indiana special teams vs. Miami special teams

This matchup could go either way: Indiana ranks 29th in my special teams SP+ ratings, while Miami ranks 31st. Both teams are dangerous if given opportunities in the return game, with Indiana’s Jonathan Brady averaging 16.5 yards per punt return and Miami shining with both Marion (25.3 yards on kick returns) and Toney (14.4 on punts). Miami’s kickoff unit is elite, and both teams are good but perhaps less than elite in the punting and place-kicking departments. Indiana’s Nico Radicic has missed only one kick all season but hasn’t attempted much from long range (just four field goals over 40 yards), and Miami’s Carter Davis is automatic on shorter stuff but is just 7-for-12 from 40-plus.

Advantage: Push

That means the score for these 10 categories is Indiana 6, Miami 1, push 3. That pretty clearly tells you the favorite and where Miami must absolutely thrive to close the gap.

---

The checklist for a Miami win

I’m getting pretty used to writing title game previews with the theme of clear favorite versus underdog that needs just the right breaks. For the third time in four seasons, the spread in the title game is at least 8.5 points, and we haven’t had a national title upset since Clemson’s drubbing of Alabama (-5.5) in 2017. (Hell, we haven’t had a title game decided by one score since second-and-26 eight years ago.) Six straight favorites have both won and covered, usually by comfortable margins.

2019: No. 1 LSU (-4.5) 42, No. 3 Clemson 25
2020: No. 1 Alabama (-9.5) 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24
2021: No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
2022: No. 1 Georgia (-13.5) 65, No. 3 TCU 7
2023: No. 1 Michigan (-4.5) 34, No. 2 Washington 13
2024: No. 8 Ohio State (-8.5) 34, No. 7 Notre Dame 23

Maybe this means we’re due a fantastic game and an upset bid. The advantages skew pretty heavily toward Indiana, but there’s always a script for underdog success, and Miami’s isn’t too hard to sketch out.

1. Miami breaks Indiana’s third-down monopoly. I wrote in the semifinals preview that Indiana had lost the overall third-down battle only once all season, and it was in Penn State’s near-upset in early November. Oregon needed to break even here to have a chance and actually won the first three third downs of the Peach Bowl. The Ducks lost 16 of the next 24, however, and the game got away from them quickly.

Miami is built to play the third-and-manageable game well, and the Hurricanes’ third-down prowess was massive in each of their past two victories: They won 58% of all third downs against Ohio State (they were 7-for-14, while OSU was 3-for-10), and they won 66% of them against Ole Miss (they were 11-for-19, and the Rebels were 2-for-10). Third-down conversions allow you to tilt the field and dominate the clock even if you aren’t scoring a ton, and Miami desperately needs success here.

2. Miami’s pass rush returns. For all of their third-down success, the Hurricanes let Ole Miss back into the game in part because the Rebels were able to fend off Bain and Mesidor (who was less than 100% for a while) and give Chambliss a chance to make something happen. Ole Miss gained nearly 400 yards in less than 19 minutes, and while third-down wins allowed Miami to limit the damage to mostly field goal attempts, the Hurricanes certainly got a reminder of how important the pass rush is to their success.

Ole Miss operates at a particularly fast tempo, and that could have played a role in neutralizing Bain and Mesidor. That won’t be an issue against Indiana, as the Hoosiers play just as slowly as Miami. And if Miami can slow the Hoosiers’ run game down enough to leverage Indiana into longer third downs than normal, that could give the Canes’ ace pass rushers a chance to shine again. Bain was on an almost Ndamukong Suh-like plane of existence for parts of the A&M and Ohio State wins, and if he reaches that level again, Miami’s odds increase significantly.

3. Indiana receivers aren’t catching contested passes. Mendoza throws a wonderfully accurate ball, but part of Indiana’s incredible success has come from Mendoza trusting his receivers to catch tough, well-covered passes. According to Sports Info Solutions, 25% of IU’s passes this season have been “contested,” which ranks 62nd in the nation; on average, teams complete about 31% of these contested passes, but Indiana has completed an incredible 44%, first nationally.

In three postseason games (including the Big Ten championship), Mendoza is 8-for-14 on contested passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns. That is ridiculous. Both Sarratt and Becker caught a pair of contested passes against Oregon; two came against blitzes, and one went for a touchdown. Miami’s cornerback corps has been banged up and rotated frequently of late, but if the Hurricanes can prevent the Hoosiers from having too much success on well-covered balls, that alone might force a couple of extra punts.

4. The Hurricanes find a couple of chunk plays. In the CFP, Indiana has gained 20-plus yards on 9.5% of its snaps, and Miami has done so only 2.5% of the time. Even in a game likely to feature a slow tempo and low possession count, those percentages could mean an extra four or five big chunk plays for Indiana. That’s too big an edge. Whether it’s via a big Fletcher run, a trick play, a perfectly blocked tunnel screen or a good, old-fashioned deep ball into coverage, Miami simply must create a few big plays and easy scoring opportunities. It’s not a Hurricane strength, but it has to happen.

5. Indiana’s turnovers luck runs out. As you would probably expect, the god of turnovers has smiled on both of these teams this season. Based on national averages for fumble recovery rates (which tend to gravitate toward 50% over time) and the typical ratio for interceptions to pass breakups (about 1-to-4), Indiana’s expected turnover margin is plus-8.8 and Miami’s is plus-6.5. Their actual turnover margins: Indiana plus-21, Miami plus-11. Indiana has recovered 79% of fumbles in its games this season — somehow the Hoosiers have lost only one of the eight fumbles they’ve committed — and Miami has recovered 61%. In last week’s Peach Bowl, both Indiana and Oregon fumbled twice, but Indiana recovered all four loose balls. The Hoosiers would have almost certainly won regardless, but the fumbling luck assured that the game was over quickly.

Turnovers have driven thousands of upsets through the years, and if Miami falls on loose balls, holds on to a possible interception or two (after dropping quite a few against Ole Miss) and gets a clean, mostly mistake-free game from Beck, look out.

---

Projections

DraftKings: Indiana 28.0, Miami 19.5 (IU -8.5, over/under 47.5 points)

SP+: Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3

Forty-two years ago, at the end of the 1983 season, fifth-ranked Miami was an 11-point Orange Bowl underdog against a Nebraska team that was garnering a solid amount of “best team ever?” hype. But in one of the sport’s most famous games, the Hurricanes bolted to an early 17-0 lead, led by 14 heading into the fourth quarter and held on for dear life late, breaking up a last-minute 2-point conversion try to win 31-30 and claim their first national title. The game would redefine the sport’s balance of power over the rest of the 1980s.

The Canes are only 8.5-point underdogs this time, but there are plenty of parallels. By simply reaching 16-0, Indiana would have solid bona fides in any future GOAT arguments, but like Tom Osborne’s Nebraska team, Cignetti’s Hoosiers will have to beat Miami in its own backyard — Hard Rock Stadium — to get the job done.

I hadn’t yet mentioned that this game is being played on Miami’s home turf because I can’t decide what impact that might have. The ticket allotment should prevent any major home-field advantage for the Canes, and considering Indiana fans scooped up about 80% to 90% of the tickets for the Peach Bowl, it wouldn’t surprise me if the fan distribution was 50-50 at worst for the Hoosiers. I therefore didn’t apply any sort of home-field adjustment in the SP+ projections. Who knows, maybe a home bump is still warranted.

As with most of this year’s (non-Ole Miss) playoff games, this game will feature a slow tempo and low possession count. Both of these teams average more than 30 seconds per play, and both have averaged 11 or fewer possessions per game in the CFP. With fewer possessions, individual mistakes end up mattering far more — as do third-down conversions, an Indiana superpower in 2025.

To the extent that SP+ disagrees with the DraftKings line, it’s erring on the side of Indiana’s offense. The possession count could make scoring 30 points (as projected) difficult, and Miami could give itself a decent chance by simply remaining beholden to the plodding, physical identity it has created. But in the end, it will probably be hard for the Canes to keep up for 60 minutes. They don’t have a natural big-play offense, and Indiana is very comfortable with plodding, physical play. The Hoosiers play in the Big Ten after all.

With the way players such as Fletcher, Bain, Mesidor, Scott and Beck have repeatedly come through in recent weeks, you can catch a “team of destiny” vibe here if you want. (And hey, if the Hurricanes jump out to an early 17-0 lead and keep those 1984 Orange Bowl parallels going, the odds will shift quickly.) But Indiana has been the story of this wild and unpredictable 2025 season, and it would almost seem like an error of fate if someone besides Cignetti, Mendoza and the Hoosiers lifted the national title trophy.