Man United stun rivals City; Senegal win AFCON amid controversy; Barcelona lose; more

This weekend in soccer gave us plenty to break down across Europe’s top leagues and in some cup competitions, like the Africa Cup of Nations. Where should we begin?

How about the Manchester derby, which saw Manchester United shock rivals Manchester City with a 2-0 win that is a major blow to Pep Guardiola’s aspirations for yet another Premier League crown. (Arsenal extended their league lead by a point after their 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest, but more on them later.)

The AFCON final ended with Senegal crowned champions over hosts Morocco, but not before some drama, a walk-off and a major interruption in play that threatens to overshadow what was a brilliant tournament. Thomas Frank’s Tottenham tenure looks increasingly tenuous following yet another home defeat (this time to fellow strugglers West Ham), and in LaLiga, Real Sociedad pulled off a stunning 2-1 win over league leaders Barcelona that has added fresh juice to a tense title race.

Elsewhere, we have plenty to unpack in Serie A (with talking points galore around AC Milan and Inter Milan’s matches in particular), and with Liverpool (who were reunited with variance vs. Burnley), Bayern Munich (who appear set to smash every Bundesliga record), Crystal Palace (whose turmoil continues), Real Madrid (who won, but appear to be drifting) and much more.

It’s Monday morning, so what better time for some musings? Let’s get into it.

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– Ogden, Dawson: Making sense of Man United’s big derby win
– Lindop: Liverpool’s margin for error is disappearing in top-four race
– Dove: Chaotic AFCON final was an embarrassment

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New Man United (sort of), same old Man City (sort of)

Such was the desire — or rather, the need — of Manchester United fans for a lift that it wasn’t going to take a lot to get them out of their seats, but their 2-0 beatdown of Manchester City surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. They held Manchester City to a single shot on target while having seven of their own, more than any other side that faced Pep Guardiola’s men in the league this season. They limited Erling Haaland to 14 touches, of which just three were in the penalty area. They scored twice, hit the woodwork twice, had two more disallowed for very tight offside calls and forced Gigio Donnarumma to make at least one exceptional save.

Would it have been a different story if Diogo Dalot had been sent off — as he probably should have been — for that foul on Jérémy Doku after just 11 minutes? In terms of result, probably. In terms of performance, assuming the United players had shown the same intensity and resilience they showed at 11 vs. 11? Probably not. The lift was evident, and while some of it can be ascribed to the “new manager” effect — wanting to impress, guys who were sidelined before coming back hyper-motivated, a change in the tactics — that boost actually already came with Darren Fletcher at the helm. The side Michael Carrick put out in his first outing just felt different on the Old Trafford grass.

Nobody should get carried away with this one result, and my guess is most United fans won’t. They’ve had enough false dawns since Sir Alex Ferguson said goodbye, and I imagine they recognize just how far this team has to go. And they also recognize, given the previous Ole Gunnar Solskjaer experience, how they’ll need to agonize over whether Carrick is the right guy to get them there. But Saturday showed what United can be, and that matters too. As does the fact that, in this bizarre (Arsenal aside) season, United are fifth in the table, one point behind the current champions. It’s as if another mini-season began Saturday, and they’re enjoying every minute.

As for City, Guardiola might have put it best when he said that United “had something we did not have.” He’s right, but the question is whether it was due the “new manager bounce” or his own team’s deficiencies.

We can talk about coaching decisions and substitutions (Rayan Cherki on the bench) and lack of energy, but the reality is that City have now won two of their past six games: against Newcastle in the League Cup (when it could have gone the other way) and against League 1’s Exeter City in the FA Cup third round.

I suspect a big part of this run is the uncertainty over the back line, which lost Josko Gvardiol and Rúben Dias to injury. A solid base and guys who can defend one-on-one has a knock-on effect when it comes to what happens higher up the pitch. Marc Guéhi‘s impending arrival — unless there are last-minute snafus, because we’ve been here before with Guehi — will help, though it’s worth remembering he’ll need to settle into a system and a culture that is very different from what he had at City. Still, that’s not the only fix that’s needed.

Even as they try to grind out results and chase Arsenal, City haven’t looked like the side of several years ago. There’s a cohesion that needs to be built, and it’s still a work in progress. Guardiola will need to sort it out on the training pitch amid major fixture congestion.

There’s enough talent to walk to second place in the league, and of course, anything can happen in the Champions League. But this group is far from its potential right now.

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AFCON final will be remembered for the wrong reasons

Ideally, we’d recall the good, with Pape Gueye scoring a stunning goal in injury time to give Senegal the 1-0 win and an Africa Cup of Nations crown over hosts (and heavy favorites) Morocco. Except there’s a lot more to it than that.

Let’s begin with the backstory. Morocco have invested heavily in football. They have a tight relationship with FIFA and president Gianni Infantino. They were awarded the 2030 World Cup as co-hosts. And both Cameroon and Nigeria, whom they beat in the quarterfinals and semifinals (the latter on penalties), complained about the officiating when they faced them.

Because it’s football, inevitably, the conspiracy theorists were out in force suggesting that Morocco were being favored. That came to a head late in the game, when Ismaïla Sarr‘s goal was disallowed after referee Jean-Jacques Ngambo Ndala called Abdoulaye Seck for a foul on Achraf Hakimi in the immediate buildup.

It was, quite obviously, the wrong call: Any contact was slight, and Hakimi was already falling backwards. But because the referee blew his whistle straight away, the VAR could not intervene. It was a basic case of terrible refereeing, though disgruntled observers might say it was preemptive officiating. There’s no reason to blow your whistle so quickly: Let things play out, and let the VAR sort it.

Deep in injury time, a penalty was awarded when Senegal’s El Hadji Malick Diouf bundled Brahim Díaz to the ground and all hell broke loose. Was it soft? To me, such incidents should be punished as fouls every single time. But if you haven’t been calling them all game, you can’t start doing so in the eighth minute of injury time. Senegal protested, as coach Pape Thiaw took all his players (except for Sadio Mané) off the pitch and into the dressing room for what felt like an eternity.

Ndala looked confused; meanwhile, the crowd was furious. By the letter of the law, if you abandon the field of play without the referee’s permission, you get booked. If you don’t return, you forfeit the game. Eventually they came back and the penalty was taken: A generous term in this case, given how ill-advised and badly executed Diaz’s Panenka was, only for it to land softly in Édouard Mendy‘s arms. Pape Gueye scored early in extra time, and given what we saw in the game (walk-off excluded), Senegal were worthy winners, with Yassine Bounou having to make a number of difficult saves.

This isn’t over, of course, because there will be fallout as the CAF tries to unpack this. Walking off the pitch like this should, at a minimum, bring a heavy fine and sporting sanctions. Some have even suggested that Senegal’s World Cup participation would have been at stake had they not returned. The ill will will linger, because it’s international football and that’s how it works, everywhere in the world. You just hope people will be grown-up enough to not generalize as they so often do, but rather hold those responsible to account.

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Tottenham’s tailspin shows no signs of abating

With Saturday’s 2-1 home defeat to West Ham — which gave them nine of a possible 33 points at home this season — it’s now two wins in 13 league games for Tottenham, who have slid down to 14th in the table.

When you have your own fans singing “sacked in the morning,” and when stories leak to the media that the club are looking for alternatives, the writing is usually on the wall for a manager. The “good” — or “least bad” — news for the embattled Thomas Frank is that they face Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday in the Champions League. A win keeps their top-eight hopes alive, while a draw should be enough to secure a place in the playoff round. (A defeat and more bile from the crowd? Well …)

The other indications that Frank will get some more time are that Johnny Heitinga was appointed as his assistant just last week. You would assume — unless the folks running Spurs are the clown show from hell — that Heitinga arrived with Frank’s blessing and that if Frank goes, he’d go too. (Nobody can be that much of a Judas, can they?) The alternative — that they basically told Frank to hire Heitinga so he could train his replacement — is something you’d see faceless, sadistic corporations do, and you’d assume Spurs are better than that.

Frank said on Saturday that he felt he had the confidence and backing of the club’s higher-ups. It’s hard to tell whether his nose got any longer when he said that, but again, would you invest €40 million in Conor Gallagher — who, let’s face it, has a pretty specific skill set — if you were ready to ax your manager?

At some point, coaches who don’t get results and who get hammered by the fans enter a toxic death spiral. For all of Frank’s mistakes and misjudgments, I don’t think we’re there yet. Then again, I didn’t think that was case for Enzo Maresca at Chelsea or Xabi Alonso at Real Madrid, and we know how those situations ended.

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Matarazzo, Real Sociedad stop Barcelona on cursed night at Anoeta

Man, this is a weird sport. Even as Real Madrid endure one of the worst weeks in their history (see below), they somehow make up three points on Barcelona, who lost 2-1 to Real Sociedad in a game they utterly dominated, hitting the woodwork five times, seeing a number of goals disallowed and recording an xG of 3.68.

Credit Rino Matarazzo for picking up a Sociedad side two points from the relegation zone less than a month ago and lifting them to eighth, taking points off Atletico Madrid and Barca along the way. But make no mistake: This win took a yeoman’s defensive effort (Álex Remiro standing on his head, to put it in hockey terms), a sprinkling of good fortune and the usual defensive snafus that plague Hansi Flick’s team.

Had Barcelona won this game 4-2, Flick could talk about his philosophy and how it’s all about outscoring the opposition. Fair enough. But the defensive foibles that led to the two conceded goals — Mikel Oyarzabal making himself invisible to Jules Koundé for the first, nobody coming anywhere near Gonçalo Guedes in the middle of the penalty area for the second — have nothing to do with high lines, attacking mindset or any of the other stuff for which Flick gets criticised when Barca drop points. It’s just poor defending and not being aware of danger. You don’t need to compromise your philosophy to fix that.

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Quick hits

10. Bayern Munich comeback terrifies (again): At halftime, RB Leipzig vs. Bayern looked like the likeliest situation for Vincent Kompany to suffer his first defeat of the season. They were on the road against a quality opponent who were a goal up and had wasted two or three crystal-clear opportunities en route to a 2.03 xG in 45 minutes. Harry Kane and Serge Gnabry were MIA, as was this season’s starlet, Lennart Karl, and Leipzig winger Yan Diomande was monstering them on the flank. Then came the second half, which saw Bayern score five times off 10 shots on target and post an XG of 3.99 for a 5-1 win. To make matters worse, Jamal Musiala made his return off the bench and Alphonso Davies‘ return is near. What are you going to do?

Bayern are on track to score 134 league goals this season. The record is 101, set by — who else? — Bayern in 1971-72. They are also on track to notch 94 points; the high-water mark is 91, set by Pep Guardiola’s Bayern. We’ve seen them dominate before, but this season feels different. The fact that they can half-ass the first 45 minutes and then switch on and road-grade the opposition feels different, too.

9. Arsenal may want to remember that the tortoise beat the hare: Instead of, say, fretting that they didn’t win away to Nottingham Forest to pull nine points clear of Manchester City. Or insisting that they were robbed because the Ola Aina incident should have been a penalty. Or slamming Mikel Arteta for managing Bukayo Saka‘s playing time, leaving him on the bench until the hour mark. (If you want to have a go at the manager, maybe opting for Gabriel Jesus over Kai Havertz when it came to replacing the star-crossed Viktor Gyökeres is more apropos.)

Sure, they took the pitch knowing Manchester City had been hammered in the derby and that this was a golden opportunity. But it’s not as if they played badly or Arteta parked the bus. Nottingham Forest are a tough nut to crack, and maybe if Martinelli (who had a poor game, but scored a hat trick a week ago) had been more composed, they would have broken through earlier. As it happens, when the xG reads 2.10 to 0.34 in your favor, you really can’t ask for much more, particularly when your attacking output didn’t come at the expense of the defensive solidity. (Forest didn’t have a single shot on target.) Slow but steady can — not will, but can — win Arsenal the league. It’s their best possible approach right now.

8. Niclas Fullkrug foolproof for Milan, who stay second in Serie A: Sorry, I couldn’t resist. The big man came on 20 minutes from time and headed home the winner five minutes later in a 1-0 win over Lecce that had become purely one-way traffic. He’ll get the headlines — rightly so, though Alexis Saelemaekers did put his cross on a plate for him — but look beyond the result, and Max Allegri can be proud of a decidedly un-Allegri-like performance in the second half, after a cautious first 45 minutes.

Milan dominated (the xG of 3.02 to 0.17 tells its own story) and Allegri needed two playmakers (Ardon Jashari and Samuele Ricci) with Luka Modric out, but it was nevertheless a comprehensive win. (Or, maybe, it was a comprehensive win precisely because not everything had to go through Modric.) Only Allegri knows whether Milan would have played the way they did after the break had their goal come in the first half, or if they had reverted to the usual safety-first approach once taking the lead. But what we saw after the break shows that they can beat you in different ways and can create chances even when the opposition park the bus, as Lecce did.

7. Variance rears its head for Liverpool, and we knew this day would come: Liverpool won a string of games early in the season with a series of improbable late goals: Federico Chiesa against Bournemouth (88 minutes), Rio Ngumoha (90+10) at Newcastle, Dominik Szoboszlai against Arsenal (83), and Mo Salah at Burnley (90+5). They did this without playing particularly well, which is why most expected some sort of regression to the mean later in the campaign. And that’s what we got on Saturday in a 1-1 draw with Burnley at Anfield.

Dominik Szoboszlai missed a first-half penalty, they had 73% possession and 11 shots on target, and yet aside from Florian Wirtz‘s impressive strike, the ball wouldn’t go in. Meanwhile, Marcus Edwards, who hadn’t scored in 11 months, uncorked a peach of a finish that beat Alisson in the second half. Unlucky? Sure. But at the risk of beating a dead horse, let’s not get lulled into a sense of security here. This setup, with Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez as your fullbacks, is not something you’re likely to want to replicate too many times. And the gaping holes in the squad that were there before are still there and unaddressed, two-thirds of the way into the January transfer window.

Presumably, they realize this: The guy they tried to sign on Deadline Day in August, Marc Guehi, is going to end up signing for a direct competitor, Manchester City. If there was a need then, there is even more of a need now.

6. Inter keep rolling with win at Udinese, with just one nit-pick: Such is the imbalance among the haves and have-nots that too many clubs (not just in Serie A, but around Europe) seem to approach games against top sides by simply raising the barricades and hoping for the best. Udinese appeared to do just that for Inter’s visit (they had 27% possession in the first half and took a single shot in the first 58 minutes) and the tactic worked until Lautaro Martínez (who else?) broke the ice, capping off a stunning goal in a 1-0 win.

That was the pretty version of Inter. They didn’t score again — nor did they reach those heights — but then, they didn’t need to. They still dominated the rest of the way despite Cristian Chivu opting to rest the likes of Marcus Thuram and Alessandro Bastoni ahead of the Champions League clash with Arsenal in midweek. If you want to nit-pick, here goes. This is a low-scoring sport, mistakes can happen at any time. You’d feel a lot better about Inter if they could put games they dominate away early.

5. Late VAR penalty to the rescue for Borussia Dortmund: This time, it wasn’t the incident — an obvious (and unnecessary) foul from Ricky-Jade Jones — but the location. Was it in the box or outside the box? I genuinely couldn’t tell, but then I’m not a trained VAR operator. Suffice to say it was awarded, Emre Can converted and Borussia Dortmund won 3-2 at home to St. Pauli to stay second in the Bundesliga, “just” 11 points behind Bayern Munich.

That may have been the biggest talking point, but it’s certainly not the only teachable moment for Niko Kovac‘s crew. With Fábio Silva preferred to Serhou Guirassy (again) up front, they were 2-0 up and cruising. With 30 minutes to go they had limited the opposition to 0.24 xG and it all looked easy-peasy. But leads need to be defended, ideally by not conceding silly set pieces and keeping the ball in the opposition half, which is exactly what they didn’t do.

Shades of the old Dortmund? It felt like it. But at least it’s three points.

4. Three points (but not much else) in Liam Rosenior’s first real test for Chelsea: I say first real test because, with the greatest of respect, Charlton away in the FA Cup with a shadow squad and Arsenal at home in the League Cup without Cole Palmer, Reece James or Moisés Caicedo needs to be graded on a curve. All three were back against Brentford, and Chelsea recorded a 2-0 win, but the performance suggests we’re nowhere near where Rosenior wants (and needs) them to be, despite his postgame cheer.

Chelsea were outshot 15-6 at home (5-2 in shots on target) and they shaded the xG (1.59 to 1.52) only because Caoimhín Kelleher gifted them a penalty late on, which Palmer converted. The other goal, from João Pedro, was another present, this time from Michael Kayode. Those were their only shots on target. Meanwhile, Kevin Schade‘s unselfishness cost Brentford a near-certain goal, a superb Robert Sánchez save denied him on another occasion and Mathias Jensen hit the woodwork. You assume Rosenior is aware of all this.

3. Never mind the result … Juventus are on the right track; and no, they don’t need Jean-Philippe Mateta: It was another one of those games away to Cagliari. The home side had one shot on target and a cumulative xG of 0.11 while parking the bus and conceding possession (82% after the break) as Juventus huffed and puffed, but couldn’t find a way through. Cue pulling of hair and gnashing of teeth.

Frankly, it’s rather absurd because Juve played well and did more than enough to win a game they ended up losing 1-0. I’m not a Luciano Spalletti guy, but he’s getting the most out of them, and the logical thing to do now is to persevere and tweak, especially with regard to Jonathan David up front.

But no, the talk is all about Juve trying to prize Jean-Philippe Mateta from Crystal Palace. He’s a good player, but leaving aside the obvious point that you’ve invested in Loïs Openda and David for a reason, he’s 29 this summer and you already have a big target man on the books in Dusan Vlahovic. Sure, Vlahovic is injured and out of contract in the summer, but he’s back in March and will be hugely motivated. And that’s assuming you need him. Would it not make more sense to get David and Openda to where you want them to be?

2. Can Crystal Palace and Oliver Glasner both be right? On an emotional level, sure. Glasner won the FA Cup and got Palace into Europe for the first time in their history, and his reward was losing Eberechi Eze to Arsenal in the summer and, likely, Marc Guehi (to Man City) and Mateta (to Juventus) this January. Hey, you’d feel abandoned too and maybe you’d rant about the owners postgame, just as he has. At the same time, Palace’s owners could point out that maybe, just maybe, if he’d extended his contract rather than letting it run down and leaving at the end of the season, they might have found the money to strengthen the squad rather than cashing in on their star players. After all, why blow your cash now for a guy who won’t be here come June 1? Who’s abandoning who here?

On a practical level, they’re both wrong and both are hurting themselves. Very few coaches can get away with calling out their owners in public the way Glasner did. We’ve seen Jose Mourinho do it and we’ve seen Antonio Conte do it, but with the greatest of respect to Glasner, he’s not on their level (not yet, anyway). Stuff like this makes him less employable.

Equally, it’s embarrassing for Palace to be in this situation, and you wonder how we got here. Only they know what the dialogue between the parties was and whether promises were made. But from the outside, it looks like they are badly mishandling and misreading an employee, who happens to be one of the better coaches in the game. The early indications are that he’s sticking around through the end of the season, possibly because sacking him means spending even more money. Whatever the case, you feel for Palace fans, especially if it ends up derailing their UEFA Europa Conference League campaign.

1. Alvaro Arbeloa gets his first win, but the Bernabeu is burning: With anger, that is. There were boos, there were white handkerchiefs being waved (the infamous “pañolada”), and there were calls for Florentino Perez to resign.

It began pregame and it continued after a first half that saw Real Madrid muster just one shot on target for a total xG of 0.39 against Levante, a side second-bottom with just one win in their past 10 league games. Goals from Kylian Mbappé (from the spot) and Raúl Asencio ultimately gave them a 2-0 win, but old-timers say such venom, especially towards Florentino, hadn’t been seen at the Bernabeu in 20 years — when he ended up resigning his post, in fact.

That won’t happen, but it’s obvious fans weren’t just angry about the performance or the cup defeat to Albacete on Wednesday. Madridismo is so huge and universal that reasons vary — and some may have no reason at all other than just venting — but my sense is that what frustrates many is the sense of drift.

Few have any doubts that, had Real Madrid beaten Barcelona in the Super Cup final, Xabi Alonso would still be in a job. And that makes no sense. If you don’t think he’s right for the Bernabeu, one result shouldn’t change your mind.

The choice of Arbeloa, who has half a season at Castilla under his belt and looked about as “managerial” as the guy delivering your Just Eat order, also felt improvised. Maybe Xabi was the wrong plan, but at least it was a plan. Now it feels like there isn’t one.