Win projections for all 30 MLB teams — and how the offseason changed expectations
Bradford DoolittleFeb 13, 2026, 07:00 AM ET Close MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013 Multiple Authors Never mind what that groundhog in Pennsylvania had to say — for baseball fans, spring has sprung early. With the World Baseball Classic fast approaching, teams bumped…
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Bradford Doolittle
Multiple Authors
Never mind what that groundhog in Pennsylvania had to say — for baseball fans, spring has sprung early. With the World Baseball Classic fast approaching, teams bumped up their initial report dates this season, and so the fields in Florida and Arizona have already come alive.
Perhaps in part due to the urgency the sped-up calendar required, along with the lingering status of a number of key free agents, there has been a good amount of movement during the month since our last Stock Watch. Although the polar ends of the Watch remain seemingly fixed — Dodgers on one end, Rockies at the other — there has been more than a little jostling in the space between.
As we check in on where each team stands entering spring training, we’ll try to channel the anxieties of the discerning fan by looking at one outstanding offseason question each franchise seemingly left unanswered. Why did this need go unaddressed? How big of a deal will it prove to be? Or is there an answer to the question hiding in plain sight?
Teams are still working on their rosters, a process that never really ends. For now, though, we’ll set some expectations for the spring as teams use this time to find answers to questions some fans wish they might have addressed well before pitchers and catchers arrived.
Win average: 102.4 (Last Stock Watch: 99.0, 1st)
In the playoffs: 97.8% (Last: 95.3%)
Champions: 29.0% (Last: 22.2%)
Why the heck didn’t the Dodgers get the Holy Grail?
No, I’m not talking about some kind of baseball holy grail. I’m talking about the actual Holy Grail. It’s about the only thing the Dodgers have yet to acquire. Surely they can do it.
In the end, I guess no team, even the Dodgers, can have it all. But they come pretty close.
Win average: 91.2 (Last: 92.5, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 77.5% (Last: 82.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Why the heck didn’t the Braves get a star shortstop?
Such talents aren’t easy to find and acquire, first and foremost. The Braves have been in an awkward spot at shortstop ever since Dansby Swanson departed, and for all the roster juggling GM Alex Anthopoulos has done, the picture here remains murky. That description might be a product of comparing the Braves’ forecast at shortstop (27th) with their outlook at basically every other position on the field, which ranges from good to excellent. Still, it’s not a great hole to have for a contending team and championship aspirant.
The plan was to go with Ha-Seong Kim, who auditioned for the job late last season. Behind him would be former Astros utility player Mauricio Dubon, acquired for all-glove, no-hit shortstop Nick Allen. Kim is down with a hand injury, pushing Dubon into an awkward fit as an every-day shortstop. Kim will likely return in late May or early June, so the arrangement is temporary. That doesn’t change the fact that the Braves really need to make a splash at this spot, especially as their highest-ranked shortstop prospects are a long way from helping in Atlanta.
As the in-season trade market takes shape, this is a situation to keep an eye on.
Win average: 91.2 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 77.9% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 7.1% (Last: 5.6%)
Why the heck didn’t the Mets get Edwin Diaz?
The Dodgers gave him a better offer. It comes down to that. That miss on the Mets’ part was part of an offseason that got off to a slow, heavily scrutinized start but eventually caught momentum and turned out pretty well.
There are always concerns. You worry about the middle infield being old, an issue at the forefront of the mind now because of Francisco Lindor‘s early hamate injury. You worry that the remaining upside in Luis Robert Jr.’s game that many, including me, have touted is simply a phantom, residue from long-faded prospect hype. And you worry that Carson Benge isn’t ready to fill the role the Mets seem to want him to fill.
Every team has worries, though. Even the Dodgers. But as the Mets have kept their projection in the range where they could emerge as L.A.’s primary challenger, a scenario that would be a nightmare for Mets fans looms as possible. That is where the teams clash in the National League Championship Series, the series goes long, and it is decided because the Dodgers have Edwin Diaz and the Mets do not.
Happy baseball, Mets fans!
Win average: 90.1 (Last: 90.1, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 73.7% (Last: 72.7%)
Champions: 8.0% (Last: 8.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the Mariners get another lefty bullpen option?
I mentioned this as a need in the last Stock Watch, citing the presence of Gabe Speier but failing to mention the acquisition of Jose Ferrer from Washington for the considerable cost of losing young catcher Harry Ford. I heard about this from a number of very close Mariners observers. It wasn’t an oversight; I just didn’t mention Ferrer. Even if I had, my two takeaways would stand.
One is that, yes, the Mariners need another lefty reliever. Two of them is not enough, at least for this team. Because of the righty-heavy nature of the rest of the staff and the platoon tendencies of Seattle’s fine starting rotation, the Mariners faced more lefty hitting last season than any team in baseball. They figure to do the same in 2026. Having only two solid lefties in the bullpen works fine in October, but you need them to be sharp, and my concern is that leaning on them for 162 games in so many mid- to-high leverage spots could undermine that. The season is a slog.
But the second and more important takeaway is simply this: If you’re looking at the roster of a World Series contender and your main critique is that it could use a third bullpen lefty, that roster is in pretty good condition. That said: I’ve been warned that an off-the-radar pickup over the winter — ex-Dodgers lefty relief prospect Robinson Ortiz — bears watching. In other words, maybe there is nothing to nitpick about this Seattle roster after all.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 89.6, 5th)
In the playoffs: 71.9% (Last: 70.6%)
Champions: 4.8% (Last: 5.9%)
Why the heck didn’t the Phillies get more new players?
This is a dumb way to phrase the question, but that’s what it comes down to. The Phillies have been intact in more or less the same form for a few seasons now, and the roster is getting old. But they’re still winning, so you can’t be too hard on GM Dave Dombrowski. That’s especially true as it looks increasingly likely the Phillies will have Zack Wheeler in the rotation for most of the season.
Say what you will about roster stagnation, the Phillies’ run differential has improved in each of the past four seasons, the first of which was the 2022 season in which the club won the NL pennant. Can that continue? Is there anything to think that the Phillies have closed the gap with the Dodgers, or set themselves apart from the Mets and Braves? The de facto swap of Adolis Garcia for Nick Castellanos does not qualify.
Thus, a whole lot of onus falls on the two most likely jolts of youthful production in the system: Andrew Painter to the pitching staff, and Justin Crawford to the hitting group. If there is anything that will be different about this group of Phillies, it’s them.
Win average: 89.4 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 69.8% (Last: 69.9%)
Champions: 7.3% (Last: 7.6%)
Why the heck didn’t the Yankees get a new roster?
They’re running it back! Hey, it worked for all those Casey Stengel teams, so why not for Aaron Boone? In truth, the Yankees have very good reason to think they have a roster with some positive regression behind it. Some of that would be in the form of better health (Gerrit Cole, et al.), but better health for the Yankees seems to be an annual regression candidate — one that never shows up.
If there is a nitpick, it’s that the way the team is constructed, it’s hard to see where Jasson Dominguez and/or Spencer Jones have much of a runway to establish themselves in the Bronx. One way running it back can work is if your in-house talents force their way upward and raise your collective ceiling. But they need some kind of an opening to do so. Perhaps that will come when that “better health” notion flops once again. In the end, disgruntled Yankees fans should remember that rosters are not just juggled during the wintertime. You can’t stop plate tectonics, and you can’t stop Yankees roster evolution, even if it doesn’t conform to the hot stove calendar.
Win average: 88.2 (Last: 87.4, 8th)
In the playoffs: 66.6% (Last: 62.2%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 3.9%)
Why the heck didn’t the Cubs get Andrew McCutchen?
OK, no one said the Cubs were *supposed* to get Andrew McCutchen, and even if they had, it would have been well down the list of Chicago’s to-do items for this winter. So, this is more of a helpful suggestion than a question, one that springs to mind when looking at how Chicago’s roster has taken shape over the winter. The Cubs are pretty loaded, but one need is one more quality righty bench bat to serve as a low-usage platoon option to go with Moises Ballesteros in the DH slot.
McCutchen, now that it appears he isn’t headed back to Pittsburgh, seems like an ideal fit for such a role, on and off the field — if he’s willing to finish his career outside of Pittsburgh. World Series contenders have often had aging former stars filling out their benches, and McCutchen is just sitting there waiting to be that savvy vet for somebody. The durability of Pete Crow-Armstrong means the Cubs don’t have to be worried about a reserve outfielder spending much time in center field, so the positional concerns are minimal. This is far from a glaring need. Consider it more of a finishing stroke for a mostly complete roster.
Win average: 88.2 (Last: 89.9, 4th)
In the playoffs: 64.5% (Last: 71.9%)
Champions: 5.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Why the heck didn’t the Blue Jays get Bo Bichette back?
The question isn’t fair, but when you look at the Blue Jays as spring training begins, it’s hard not to look at the position group as being ostensibly the same, save for Kazuma Okamoto filling the spot of Bichette. That might be a good thing, but given the ongoing injury woes of Anthony Santander, the difference in production between Bichette, now in New York, and Okamoto in Toronto is going to account for most of what sets this Blue Jays offense apart from last year’s juggernaut. It’s also a group that could see a lot of statistical regression.
There’s a lot of need for Okamoto to hit the ground running and become an AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Sure, Bichette missed some time in 2025, but he was still a key driver of Toronto’s offensive surge and adjustment in collective approach. Failing that, a Toronto offseason that began so successfully with the signings of Dylan Cease, Okamoto and Cody Ponce might be more remembered for another round of Blue Jays pursuits that came up short in the weeks that followed.
Win average: 87.6 (Last: 86.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 65.0% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 5.0% (Last: 3.6%)
Why the heck didn’t the Tigers get one more impact hitter?
The Tigers are extremely well positioned. They have a fully stocked rotation, if healthy, and a new closer in future Hall of Famer Kenley Jansen. They have a feel-good reunion on tap with Justin Verlander‘s return. They have outstanding young hitters still getting better, led by Riley Greene. It’s all good stuff, but it just feels like they are one piece away from a complete puzzle
The Tigers have good reason to expect additional sizzle from in-house prospect graduations in the form of Kevin McGonigle (very soon) and Max Clark (later). But a team looking to complete its championship résumé needs a veteran leader/producer in the mix. Verlander and Jansen offer that to the pitching staff, but what about the hitters? Alex Bregman would have been perfect, and Eugenio Suarez would have fit as well. Alas.
The Tigers are going to be a key part of the AL Central race anyway, but looking ahead to another October run, look for this to be an area of focus as the in-season trade markets take shape. In a tightly packed top tier in the AL, the Tigers can’t take a passive approach to the opportunity right in front of them.
Win average: 87.1 (Last: 86.9, 9th)
In the playoffs: 59.6% (Last: 56.6%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 4.3%)
Why the heck didn’t the Red Sox get an Alex Bregman replacement?
It’s not for a lack of trying. To be fair, the only Bregman-level third baseman on the free agent market was … Bregman. When the Red Sox missed on him, it was a tough pivot. Trade pickup Caleb Durbin is an odd choice, and not just because he probably slots in better at second base. Sure, Marcelo Mayer has upside if he takes over the hot corner, but if Durbin holds down second base, what does that say about Kristian Campbell‘s progress? How does Isiah Kiner-Falefa fit in?
To me, just signing Eugenio Suarez to a one-year deal might have been the easier road and less costly in terms of the pitchers Boston sent to Milwaukee for Durbin. Of course, all of this will make a lot more sense if any and all of Campbell, Durbin and Mayer break out. If not, this becomes a glaring need at the trade deadline.
Win average: 86.3 (Last: 85.6, 13th)
In the playoffs: 54.4% (Last: 50.4%)
Champions: 3.7% (Last: 3.2%)
Why the heck didn’t the Orioles get Jackson Holliday a supply of Axe bats?
I’m not qualified to stump for any particular model of bat, though the makers of the Axe version claim the angled knob helps alleviate pressure on the hamate bone. This seems relevant as, when spring training opened, we saw a sudden spate of players with hamate injuries, including Holliday, who will miss the start of the season after having surgery. In all seriousness, a look at the Orioles’ roster without Holliday, who should be back early in the season, makes you realize what a bang-up job Baltimore did over the winter in patching up the depth chart after last season’s collapse.
No, the Orioles didn’t spring for the Cy Young-level starting pitcher we’re always telling them to sign. They even traded a pitcher with that kind of upside when they sent Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels. But the lineup has more power (Pete Alonso), depth and balance. The rotation is deep and has a high floor, especially after this week’s signing of Chris Bassitt. The bullpen has the focus of a stable closer with Ryan Helsley now on board. Even with Holliday’s temporary absence, the Orioles appear to be in good shape thanks to the recent trade for ex-Diamondback Blaze Alexander.
This exercise is by definition meant to be nitpicky. Sorry, folks, I really like what the Orioles have done. So, about those bats …
Win average: 84.9 (Last: 86.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 48.4% (Last: 54.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.5%)
Why the heck didn’t the Astros get more starting pitching?
How much starting pitching did you want the Astros to acquire? More? Good answer. The problem isn’t that Houston didn’t address its rotation. Since last season ended, the Astros traded for ex-Pirate Mike Burrows and signed overseas hurlers Ryan Weiss and Tatsuya Imai. The problem is that FanGraphs has Houston’s rotation forecast for the 23rd-best FIP in the majors. It’s a glaring weakness on a roster that otherwise looks pretty good, though I’d like to see a more dynamic situation in center field.
So, did the Astros mess up? We’ll see, but it’s entirely possible that the forecasts are simply wrong about everyone except for acknowledged ace Hunter Brown. Weiss’ and Imai’s numbers are subject to imprecise translation statistics, and Burrows is someone whom the Astros saw as a good fit for their highly successful pitching program.
If the Astros are right in their assessment of the fit between their acquired pitchers and their organizational processes, the projections don’t really matter, do they? For now though, the on-paper rotation stands out as a considerable Achilles’ heel in the Astros’ quest to get back to the postseason.
Win average: 83.3 (Last: 85.2, 14th)
In the playoffs: 40.9% (Last: 48.9%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last: 2.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the Padres get a front-line starter?
Maybe the Padres just couldn’t spend what it would take to land an ace to replace Dylan Cease on the roster. And maybe the always active AJ Preller will continue to probe the trade possibilities. Either way, the Padres have lost ground to the Dodgers since last season ended while moving closer to the Giants and Diamondbacks. And that’s just in their own division.
Health can be a part of the answer here. Full seasons from Joe Musgrove and Michael King would give the Padres a reliable rotation big three, with those two joining Nick Pivetta. The next layer of starter options is fine if not dynamic — JP Sears, Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart. Overall, the Padres rank 26th in both projected rotation fWAR and FIP. That puts an awful lot on the bullpen, which on paper again figures to be elite. But bullpens, as ever, are fickle from season to season. As it is, the Padres’ roster looks incomplete as spring training begins.
Win average: 83.3 (Last: 85.2, 14th)
In the playoffs: 40.9% (Last: 48.9%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last: 2.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the Brewers get a third baseman?
Well, they did. It’s David Hamilton, unless it’s Joey Ortiz or even Jett Williams. Or, eventually, Jesus Made. So often, Brewers moves that initially register as head-scratchers make perfect sense a few months after the fact. This is an organization that has more than earned the benefit of the doubt.
The concern here is one of general approach, the constant attrition of making moves to keep the talent pool young and deep, and the payroll within the guardrails. As with Cleveland, the Brewers’ approach has worked up to a certain level. It has not paid off in terms of the first World Series win in franchise history, or the first NL pennant.
The obstacle to the latter milestone is the Dodgers, as it is for all NL clubs. Will an ever-churning roster of exciting young players overcome the veteran Dodgers anytime soon? Sure, it could happen. But keeping Freddy Peralta would have been a more sure course. So, too, would signing someone like Eugenio Suarez, if Milwaukee wasn’t sold on Caleb Durbin as a long-term fit as a regular. As it is, it just feels like a team that I’ve often called the best-run organization in baseball is — at times — a little too willing to kick the can down the road.
Win average: 82.8 (Last: 85.0, 15th)
In the playoffs: 40.4% (Last: 49.9%)
Champions: 1.7% (Last: 2.4%)
Why the heck didn’t the Royals get an impact hitter?
I’m of two minds about the Royals as spring training begins. On one hand, they look like a clear playoff contender. I love the run prevention across the board, though the depth behind the pitchers likely to be on the Opening Day roster means some health luck will be needed. The other mind is that I’m just not sold on the idea that Kansas City’s offseason moves made it any better.
I liked the additions of Matt Strahm and Alex Lange to what looks like a fully stocked bullpen. But I’m not sold on the offense being markedly different with Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas on board and Jonathan India coming back.
This puts a lot of pressure on Jac Caglianone to make significant improvement, which he is certainly capable of doing. Having Carter Jensen around for a full season will also help. Neither of those situations is related to offseason transactions. Ultimately, I fear that too much has been pinned on the effects of moving in the fences at the K. It will help hitters and hurt pitchers — that’s just physics. But the key is whether those effects shake out in the Royals’ favor. Of that, I will believe it when I see it, so Royals fans have to hope that the math behind this bold decision proves to be spot-on.
Win average: 82.3 (Last: 82.7, 16th)
In the playoffs: 35.9% (Last: 36.4%)
Champions: 1.4% (Last: 1.5%)
Why the heck didn’t the Rangers get a Marcus Semien replacement?
Before Thursday, I might have leaned toward a lesser need, such as the lack of enough off-the-bench righty hitters to pair with three lefty swingers (Josh Smith, Joc Pederson, Evan Carter) who lack utility against lefty pitchers. Now, though, the second-base picture is further blurred by the news that top prospect Sebastian Walcott will have elbow surgery. His season might be over before it began.
Even before this unfortunate turn of events, the Rangers were probably looking at Smith as the keystone regular, spelled by some combination of Ezequiel Duran and Cody Freeman. Smith has been a key utility player for Texas the past two seasons, but his platoon disparities and defensive profile make him an ill-fitting regular. As a stopgap until Walcott is ready, it’s fine. Now, though, the position looks a lot less dynamic for the coming season, as in a last-place projection.
So it goes. Teams spend the winter reshaping the roster, and plans go out the window before the full squads have reported. At 19, Walcott might not have been ready anyway, but at the very least, he’s losing a key developmental season. And the Rangers’ makeover looks a little more incomplete, at least for the short term. Still, you get the feeling Texas’ roster will remain in flux well into the season.
Win average: 82.0 (Last: 80.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 33.5% (Last: 27.5%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.6%)
Why the heck didn’t the Giants get a Max Scherzer?
Generally I’m trying to stay away from specific players in these questions. With the Giants, though, pinpointing Scherzer allows me to make a few points. Another possibility would be adding a cleanup hitter, except the answer there would just be Bryce Eldridge. Not to put too much of an onus on the kid, but he does look like a lefty-hitting version of the young Mark McGwire, and if he were to have a McGwire-like rookie season, it would go a long way toward curing any lingering Giants offensive ills.
As for Scherzer, he seemed like a perfect fit to play out his career under longtime friend Tony Vitello, about whom he spoke glowingly again and again before and after his surprising hire. On top of that, with Justin Verlander‘s departure, the Giants have an opening for an over-40, future Hall of Fame righty.
Maybe it’ll still happen, but Buster Posey’s additions to the rotation so far included less glossy veterans Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle. Those two slot in behind standouts Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, along with Landen Roupp. Beyond that, Posey likely has his eye on a number of near-ready prospects slotted for the high minors, pitchers like Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Carson Seymour, Hayden Birdsong and Trevor McDonald who could supplant any of those behind Webb and Ray.
Therein lies the likely explanation for not signing Scherzer. If the youngsters force their way upward, he’d be awfully hard to displace. But, first, that has to happen.
Win average: 80.6 (Last: 81.5, 17th)
In the playoffs: 28.4% (Last: 31.5%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last: 0.8%)
Why the heck didn’t the Diamondbacks get a legit center fielder?
Although the Diamondbacks’ projection is dragged down by an iffy pitching project, you can at least see where the Snakes are going with that group. They have some high-floor veterans in the rotation and a gaggle of ranked prospects in the high minors pushing up behind them, providing a semblance of ceiling.
I’m more curious about the position players. In the aggregate, it’s a strength, as Arizona projects as an above-average offense while looking elite in both the baserunning and defense categories. At the same time, it’s an unbalanced group, with clear standouts (Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo) alongside some trouble spots.
As a premium, up-the-middle position, center field in particular stands out. Alek Thomas figures to do the heavy lifting against righties, and at this point, he just is what he is: a player with a career OPS+ of 76. The hope for a breakout at this spot appears to lie in the possibility of perennial prospect Jordan Lawlar making a near full-time shift to the grass and seizing the position. First and foremost, Lawlar has to stay healthy. If he can, he has the speed to play anywhere in the outfield. Can it work? Sure. Will it? We might find out.
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.2, 20th)
In the playoffs: 26.9% (Last: 22.9%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 0.5%)
Why the heck didn’t the Reds get a new right fielder?
The question for the Reds narrowed in scope when Cincinnati inked veteran masher Eugenio Suarez to fill the team’s crucial void in the middle of the lineup. He’ll be the Reds’ primary DH but will also be part of a group of corner types moving about that also includes Spencer Steer, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday and Ke’Bryan Hayes. That group will cover first, third, left field and most of the time at DH.
Right field, which figures to be the domain of Noelvi Marte, currently has a dead-last projection. With most of the rest of the roster in decent shape, especially a potentially dynamic starting rotation, this puts lot of pressure on Marte to move toward his ceiling.
Marte has the tools, with upper-echelon Statcast figures in sprint speed, arm strength and maximum exit velocity. But those readings are different from actual, consistent production, and that’s where the Reds need Marte to put it together. With nearly 200 big league games under his belt at this point, Marte has an 86 OPS+, .294 OBP and negative defensive metrics, adding up to an unplayable 0.4 bWAR per 162 games. Marte made progress in 2025, and if he can take a big step in 2026, the Reds’ roster will look that much more complete — as in playoff caliber.
Win average: 79.9 (Last: 77.7, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 25.5% (Last: 18.3%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
Why the heck didn’t the Pirates get a better team defense?
It’s great to cite such a specific need for a Pirates team that in an exercise like this typically requires a big-picture query. The Pirates have added enough legit big league offensive talent in Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, Jhostynxon Garcia and Marcell Ozuna that you can worry about such micro needs.
The starting rotation should rank in the top 10, a great building block for any rising team, and could crack elite status if Bubba Chandler takes a leap to become Robin to Paul Skenes‘ Batman. The staff should strike out a lot of batters, which helps. Still, playoff teams tend to turn balls in play into outs, and the Pirates’ positional alignment seems to put too many regulars in tension with their ideal slot on the defensive spectrum.
At the same time, projecting team defensive rankings is an inexact science, to say the least, so maybe skipper Don Kelly can make it work. A quick ascension by Konnor Griffin at shortstop would surely help.
Win average: 79.6 (Last: 80.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 25.5% (Last: 28.0%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Why the heck didn’t the Twins get a Carlos Correa replacement?
It’s a loaded question, but it’s the kind that this Stock Watch concept is all about. The answer is both simple and symptomatic of an organization at something of a crossroads.
The easy answer is that the Twins have an in-house answer at shortstop in Brooks Lee. Lee, the eighth pick of the 2022 draft, logged the playing time of a regular in 2025, albeit in a utility role until Correa was traded to Houston. Lee, who turns 25 on Valentine’s Day, is at minus-1.0 fWAR for his fledgling career. Thus, the Twins’ team projection at shortstop ranks as the worst in the majors. The club obviously hopes that Lee, a top-50 prospect, is ready to come into his own. The backstop to that plan is veteran Orlando Arcia, a non-roster invite.
Maybe Lee will make a leap, but it’s still a skinflint approach to a team not far removed from contention in a mediocre division. Cot’s Contracts projects the Twins with the 23rd-ranked CBT payroll, where they finished last season after a few years of being more in the middle of the pack. Then, on the cusp of spring training, the club parted ways with its highly successful baseball chief, Derek Falvey. Nothing against replacement Jeremy Zoll, except to point out that he’s unproven. But the overall picture looks more unstable than it has been for Minnesota in some time, even as the organization still has a good deal of top-to-bottom talent.
Win average: 78.5 (Last: 77.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 19.9% (Last: 15.6%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)
Why the heck didn’t the Rays get a first-division outfield?
One trait among teams with reputations for rehabilitating the value of second-chance players is that they tend to overperform against expectation. The Rays were the avatar for this organizational strength for years. And perhaps they remain so, but recent trends have bent back in the other direction.
During a six-season span ending in 2023, the Rays’ win totals exceeded their consensus preseason over/under figure five times. The average miss was 10.9 wins, in favor of the Rays, ranking in the top four in each of those seasons. Over the past two campaigns, however, the Rays have fallen short by more than four wins against the over/unders. Tampa Bay finished under .500 in fourth place both times.
The Rays had a decidedly positive run differential in 2025, but the current landscape of the AL East doesn’t reward middling play. Roster holes are magnified in a division with four strong playoff contenders, and thus the Rays’ outfield — which as a group forecasts 27th in the majors — is a problem. The primary moves to address the outfield were to bring in veterans Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley, both of whom are coming off below-average seasons. The Rays of 2018 to 2023 could have been expected to “fix” such players. After the past two seasons, can the Rays of 2026 do the same?
Win average: 78.2 (Last: 76.8, 24th)
In the playoffs: 19.3% (Last: 14.6%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)
Why the heck didn’t the Athletics get more pitching?
Don’t look now, but with just a little more spending and perhaps some payroll slashing by other clubs, the Athletics might escape the bottom 10 in the salary standings. That little bit of investment has coincided with an uptick in on-field play, as the Athletics’ three-year power rating in my system has leaped by nearly 10 wins over the past couple of years. Yet the forecasts for this season are only slightly higher than last season’s, even though the A’s have an offense that looks like a top-10 unit. The reason: run prevention.
The pitching outlook is what we’re zeroing in on, but it really is an overall question about run prevention. The questions are across the board. The defense, rotation and bullpen all project to land in the bottom 10, and on top of all that, the Athletics’ temporary home in West Sacramento appears to present some issues in terms of an extreme offensive environment. Yet the A’s played it cool during the winter, adding veterans Aaron Civale, Mark Leiter Jr. and Scott Barlow on one-year contracts.
With playoff odds in the neighborhood of 20%, there is an opportunity for the exciting offense to lead a run into contention. Outscoring teams early in the season will be key and hopefully put some pressure on the front office to add to the staff. Until then, it’s paramount that younger hurlers such as Luis Morales, Jacob Lopez and Gunnar Hoglund make their presence felt sooner than later.
Win average: 78.2 (Last: 78.1, 21st)
In the playoffs: 20.4% (Last: 19.4%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 0.5%)
Why the heck didn’t the Guardians get more offense?
It feels like I complain a lot about the Guardians’ lack of payroll aggression given their consistent success on the field. What Cleveland has done has worked, as the franchise has made seven playoff appearances over the past decade while landing in the bottom 10 by Opening Day payroll seven times during that span. Well, it has worked to a point, as Cleveland’s championship drought remains baseball’s longest. And that’s the thing. It’s great that the Guardians have won the past two AL Central titles with young, cheap rosters. But shouldn’t that make this the precise time to show some aggression in free agency to complete the puzzle? Can’t afford it? Please.
After another dreadfully dull transaction period for the Guardians, we’ve returned to the same place the club was a season ago. A young roster coming off a division title. Reigning AL Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt in the dugout. Jose Ramirez as ever displaying an undying loyalty to the franchise. A payroll forecast even worse than usual, as Cot’s Contracts has the Guardians projected to rank 29th in Opening Day salary. And, again, the betting markets are skeptical, mostly due to an offense that projects as one of the bottom seven or so in the majors.
Yet the Guardians have habitually confounded preseason forecasts by doing the same things, again and again. That’s commendable, but that title drought drags on. Organizational discipline is a virtue until it invariably becomes a vice, and there are no flags being unfurled for sitting atop the leaderboard for marginal wins per marginal payroll dollar.
Win average: 71.8 (Last: 74.1, 25th)
In the playoffs: 5.7% (Last: 9.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Why the heck didn’t the Marlins get one more thumper?
There’s a noticeable break in the probabilities between the Guardians (20.4% playoff odds) and the Marlins (5.7%). So, if you’re breaking teams into tiers based on these forecasts, the Fish still land at the bottom of the sea. (Sorry.) Yet I see the Marlins as a breakout candidate based on an exciting group of young hitters and a rotation poised for a collective breakout because of improved health and the depth that comes from having some near-ready rotation options on the prospect list. Because of all that, I got greedy with my question, as the two spots where the Marlins rank the lowest in terms of offensive production are first base and DH.
This might not be a bad thing, because those are spots that can be addressed on the fly if internal options don’t pan out. In other words, rather than springing for, say, Marcell Ozuna now, the Marlins can wait to see if the group led by Kyle Stowers, Agustin Ramirez, Owen Caissie et al., clicks as a unit. If the Marlins can hang around the wild-card chase into the summer, their in-season pursuits can focus on these spots.
The problem is that Miami’s path to contention in 2026 looks narrow. Although it’s always possible that a preseason favorite can collapse, like last year’s Braves, right now the Marlins are one of a number of NL teams whose only access to the playoffs appears to be the No. 6 seed. Given this ranking, the Marlins are starting off behind those other clubs.
Still, the Marlins’ approach has been sensible. The organization is on the right path, and while hopes are growing, the emphasis remains on the long term. But with a few breakouts, the long term can turn short awfully fast.
Win average: 71.3 (Last: 73.0, 26th)
In the playoffs: 5.2% (Last: 7.6%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.1%)
Why the heck didn’t the Cardinals get a better projection?
When is the last time the Cardinals entered a season with expectations this low? St. Louis’ over/under for wins sits at 69.5. My database of consensus preseason over-unders goes back to 2007, and the lowest for the Cardinals during that span was 76.0 in 2008, when they went on to win 86 games. It’s been long time since the Redbirds have been torn down to the studs like this.
With the departures of Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and others, the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster won’t have a hitter at least 29 years old, in terms of 2026 baseball age. The pitching staff is almost as young but at least has a couple of 30-somethings (Riley O’Brien and Ryne Stanek) for the grown-ups to glob on to. Welcome to the Chaim Bloom era.
In many ways, Bloom’s overhaul of the organization is taking the Cardinals back to their Branch Rickey roots with its emphasis on depth, talent acquisition and development. After all, St. Louis is the franchise that invented the concept of the minor league system as we know it. It might be worth noting that Rickey also had a reputation for being tight-fisted, but I digress.
Although this will be Bloom’s first season heading up the baseball operation, he has been at work behind the scenes for a couple of years, so 2026 doesn’t necessarily represent a complete blank slate as it does for other rebuilders like Washington and Colorado. Indeed, young as the Cardinals are, they’ll have a lineup full of internally developed hitters who already have at least a year of service time in the majors. There is one exception to that, and he’s the player to watch: JJ Wetherholt, the 23-year-old hit machine who should be about to mount a strong NL Rookie of the Year campaign.
Elsewhere, with short-term expectations low, stagnated young talents such as Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker should get a long runway to show they are part of the new foundation. And it’s a promising one: Although the Cardinals’ projection is lower than it has been in a long time, their prospect rankings have surged. The rebuild in St. Louis might seem strange, but Cardinals fans might not have to endure this status for long.
Win average: 68.8 (Last: 69.6, 27th)
In the playoffs: 2.9% (Last: 3.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the Angels get some help for Mike Trout in the outfield?
You can always pick on the Angels’ rotation outlook, but that gets old, so we’ll go with what projects to be a bottom-three outfield. Trout, for his part, barely helps that forecast given that he mostly DHed a season ago. That’s an appropriate career move for the future Hall of Famer, but then don’t you need to adjust the rest of the roster accordingly?
Jo Adell broke out in the power department in 2025, finally manifesting one of the highly touted tools that once made him an exciting prospect. But that’s kind of all he does, and he proved to be no solution in center field, where he started 89 times. Jorge Soler is a defensive menace, but if he’s healthy and DHing, then Trout can’t. Newly acquired Josh Lowe can run, but he’s not really a center fielder, either, and has a sub-.700 OPS in each of the past two seasons. Bryce Teodosio plays center but is already 26 and in limited time has a career OPS+ of 45 with a lone big league homer. Speed-and-defense prospect Nelson Rada is a possibility but is only 20 and lacks power.
The answer to the question, then, might well be that the Angels hope the old Mike Trout will resurface in 2026.
Win average: 60.9 (Last: 60.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the White Sox get a front-line starter?
It wouldn’t have made much sense at this point for the White Sox to splurge for, say, their onetime rotation stalwart Dylan Cease, who landed a huge deal early in the offseason with Toronto. That’s not to say GM Chris Getz is allergic to veterans, even as he waits for his talented foundation of prospects to coalesce. We saw that over the winter with the additions of Munetaka Murakami, Anthony Kay, Seranthony Dominguez and Austin Hays. We highlight this need now because there is a top-line to-do item for Getz and his staff to check off: turn top-flight pitching prospects into impact big league pitchers. They’ve already assembled an exciting group of hitters in the majors and in the upper levels of the minors.
The current ChiSox brass has shown an ability to identify pitching solutions in the second-chance market and Rule V draft. The White Sox apparently offered up the right tributes to the unseen forces behind draft lottery fortune, securing the top pick this June in a draft where UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky looms as a clear No. 1. Now it’s time to perfect those pitching development programs with a near-term focus on minor leaguers Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith and Tanner McDougal, among others. If a couple of Chicago’s top pitching prospects can turn the corner in the way Rule V revelation Shane Smith did a season ago, we’ll know the ceiling on this surging White Sox rebuild is sky high.
Win average: 58.5 (Last: 62.6, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the Nationals get a big league roster?
Some franchises have a lot more than one glaring need. The Nationals are starting over, with amateur draft guru Paul Toboni taking control of the front office. The extent to which Toboni’s approach is a ground-up makeover of the Nationals organization was made abundantly clear when he dealt MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers.
The Nats will have a big league roster, of course, but it’s one with a position group that is very young and short of proven producers at this level. It’s a tall order to ask Washington fans to hang in through another rebuild after the last one went nowhere, but that’s a sunk cost at this point.
This is where losing-fatigued fans have to root for player development rather than a playoff push, which is a lot. But every step James Wood takes in the majors and every promotion Eli Willits earns in the minors is another step toward relevance. The Nationals have a lot of steps ahead of them, hopefully this time leading in the right direction.
Win average: 53.7 (Last: 48.7, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Why the heck didn’t the Rockies get a lead baseball executive?
Trick question — they did! Colorado finally overhauled its front office this winter. The choice of Moneyball figure and former NFL exec Paul DePodesta to head up the baseball ops department was more than a little surprising. That doesn’t mean it won’t work, so let’s take an optimistic stance and ponder why it might.
DePodesta hadn’t been in baseball for nearly 10 years, but he has a rich background in the sport working around elite executive talents from Billy Beane to Logan White. His time away from the sport might well prove to be more a feature than a bug if it results in some truly fresh perspectives from someone who clearly is valued for his intellectual acumen. One thing many of us decry about the analytics era is that team processes and styles have fallen into a kind of cerebral lockstep, making it more difficult for teams to differentiate themselves in ways beyond economic might. It still happens, but sometimes it’s hard to discern the differences in approaches between teams.
Well, here is someone coming at things from a whole new perspective. The initial litmus test will be to see what, if any, progress DePodesta and his staff can make in solving the ancient riddle that surrounds the home-road disparities of Rockies pitchers. He already has declared a “see what sticks” approach, and that’s good. Creativity and open minds will be a nice change of pace for this organization.
Signing Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano to the rotation might not tilt the contention axis, but they are veteran pitchers with deep arsenals that are ripe for experimentation. Any lessons learned can be passed down to the next generation of Rockies pitchers, promising hurlers such as Chase Dollander, McCade Brown and others. It — and everything else — is worth a shot when it comes to a team that has plunged into the depths of historical ineptitude.
