The best teams in Europe: Can anybody touch Barcelona, Bayern?

Through most of 2025-26, two soccer teams have consistently stood out from the pack in Europe. Arsenal and Bayern Munich finished with the top two point totals in the Champions League league phase — Arsenal pulled a perfect 24 points from eight matches, and Bayern dropped points only against Arsenal — and they have led their respective domestic leagues from virtually start to present. Hell, they’re still alive in their domestic cup competitions, too.

These two clubs have set the standard this season, but, well, the season’s long. Are they still the best teams in Europe now that the season’s stretch run is approaching? Not necessarily. They’re among the best, but they have some company.

Every so often, I check in on teams’ form over the last couple of months using what I call “adjusted goal differential,” a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations. It isn’t opponent-adjusted and therefore isn’t incredibly predictive, but it tells us who’s hot. And based on league play, selected domestic cup play* and UEFA competitions, here are the 30 hottest teams from Europe’s Big Five leagues since Jan. 5.

(* Because there have still been quite a few matches between first-division and much lower-division clubs in the FA Cup and Coupe de France, we’ll leave those out.)

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Past two months: 13 matches, 30 points (2.31 PPG), +1.65 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Athletic Club (March 7), at Newcastle (Champions League, March 10), Sevilla (March 15), Newcastle (Champions League, March 18), Rayo Vallecano (March 22), at Atletico Madrid (April 5)

(Note: For each team’s upcoming schedule, I’ve italicized the matches against other teams in this top 30 list)

The Copa del Rey had a few lower-division blowouts in this two-month sample, but I wanted to include it because when you see that Barcelona’s adjusted goal differential is quite a bit higher than everyone else’s, I want you to know that it includes Barca’s 4-0 loss to Atletico Madrid in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals. That’s how good they’ve otherwise been. In this 13-game sample, they’ve won six matches by three goals — including one in the return leg against Atleti — and another three by two goals.

The competition level hasn’t been spectacular, but Barca have established an incredibly high level, and they’ve actually been unlucky: Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo and Fermín López have combined to score only 11 goals from shots worth 19.3 xG. The quartet combined for 2.0 xG, but failed to score in a 2-1 loss to Real Sociedad.

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Hansi Flick is my favorite manager in Europe, not because he’s the best — though he certainly ranks pretty high — but because he lays all his cards on the table in every match.

If you beat Barça, you’re going to do it by playing their match. They’re going to tilt the pitch with their short passing game and preposterously high defensive line, forcing you to play directly (and probably get pulled offside) or lose the ball as soon as you get it back. They’re going to attempt far more shots than you, and they’re going to force you to finish a couple of the few high-quality chances you create.

And, increasingly in the new year, you’re going to have to figure out how to rein in Lamine Yamal. The 18-year-old has caught fire, scoring nine goals (third among all players in this sample) with 48 chances created (first), 106 ground duels won (first) and 12 successful one-on-ones in the box (first). Ridiculous.

Barça are playing at this level despite the poor non-Yamal finishing and despite getting few minutes from either Pedri or Raphinha, maybe two of the three most important players when it comes to executing Flick’s style. If they can stay healthy for the first time in a while, and if the above quartet starts finishing at even an average level, then this could easily be the best team in Europe down the stretch.

One thing is certain: This next month is going to be a challenge. Barça makes a trip to Sam Mames weekend, and then they play four games in four weeks against teams currently in this top 30. To keep hopes of a LaLiga and Champions League double intact, they’ll need to be something pretty close to the best team in Europe.

Past two months: 12 matches, 31 points (2.58 PPG), +1.32 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Borussia Monchengladbach (March 6), at Atalanta (Champions League, March 10), at Bayer Leverkusen (March 14), Atalanta (Champions League, March 18), Union Berlin (March 21), at Freiburg (April 4)

It speaks to how good Bayern were in the first half of the season that they’ve seemed noticeably shaky of late … and they’re the second-highest ranked team on this list. They’ve begun to give opponents more high-quality looks at the goal: Among the 96 teams in this two-month sample, they’re 71st in xG allowed per shot and 49th in the number of high-quality shots (0.2 xG or higher) opponents are attempting per match. And yet, they’re as Bayern as ever. Harry Kane has scored 15 goals in these two months (first), Michael Olise has created 10 assists (first), Luis Díaz has created 33 chances (fourth), and despite a surprising loss to Augsburg and a draw against Hamburg, their 2.58 points per game in this sample is comfortably the best.

Oh, to have their problems.

Past two months: 12 matches, 26 points (2.17 PPG), +1.20 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Monaco (March 6), Chelsea (Champions League, March 11), Nantes (March 15), at Chelsea (Champions League, March 17), at Nice (March 22), Toulouse (April 5)

They still aren’t quite hitting last season’s high notes, and whenever they’ve come close (as with their 5-0 win over Marseille), it’s followed by a surprising setback (they then lost 3-1 to Rennes). But the ratio of quality to question marks continues to improve, and with Barça with Raphinha and Pedri, some of PSG’s best players still haven’t found fifth gear: Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has played only 52% of minutes in this sample of matches, right back Achraf Hakimi has played 57%, and midfielder Fabián Ruiz remains injured.

With an even slightly stable lineup, PSG could easily still repeat in the Champions League.

4. Liverpool (Last time: unranked)

Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +1.05 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Wolves (FA Cup, March 6), at Galatasaray (Champions League, March 10), Tottenham Hotspur (March 15), Galatasaray (Champions League, March 18), at Brighton (March 21)

They were outclassed in losses to Bournemouth in January (xG differential: minus-1.6) and Manchester City (minus-1.7), but Liverpool are good; they look worthy of a Champions League run. Despite playing in the ruthless Premier League, they’ve produced a positive xG differential in nine of their 12 matches in this span, and they were terribly unlucky in both Tuesday’s loss to Wolves (xG differential: plus-1.4) and recent draws against Fulham (plus-0.7) and Burnley (plus-2.9!).

They’re attempting far more shots than their opponents, they’re creating far better shots, they’re counterattacking well when they need to, and pretty much every attacker — from Hugo Ekitike to Florian Wirtz, Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Salah — has done some pretty dangerous things of late.

5. Lens (Last time: 14)

Past two months: 7 matches, 13 points (1.86 PPG), +1.05 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Lyon (Coupe de France, March 5), Metz (March 8), at Lorient (March 15), Angers (March 22), at Lille (April 5)

A 3-2 tossup loss to Monaco (xG differential: plus-0.1) and an unfortunate draw with Strasbourg (plus-0.8) likely ended Lens’ Ligue 1 title hopes — they’re now four points behind PSG — but they’re still creating a delightful story this season. They’ve gotten a combined nine goals, nine assists and 109 chances created from 32-year-old Adrien Thomasson and 33-year-old Florian Thauvin, plus 10 goals from 30-year-old Wesley Saïd, and only PSG has allowed fewer goals.

Manager Pierre Sage has caught lightning in a bottle, and Lens should be back in the Champions League next year because of it.

6. Inter Milan (Last time: 7)

Past two months: 17 matches, 38 points (2.24 PPG), +1.03 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at AC Milan (March 8), Atalanta (March 14), at Fiorentina (March 22), Roma (April 4)

In their last 15 Serie A matches, Inter have dropped two points. They’re on pace for 94 points in Serie A; no one has had more since Juventus hit 95 in 2017-18. They’re into the Coppa Italia semifinals (where they drew at Como in the first leg). Domestically, this has been one of the club’s best campaigns.

It just didn’t happen for them this year in the Champions League, where they lost three of their last four, then dropped both legs to Bodo/Glimt in the knockout phase playoffs, but even if Serie A isn’t amazing this season, you don’t dominate to this level if you aren’t really, really good.

Past two months: 14 matches, 31 points (2.21 PPG), +1.01 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Mansfield (FA Cup, March 7), at Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League, March 11), Everton (March 14), Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League, March 17), vs. Manchester City (League Cup final, March 22)

Adjust for the quality of opponent, and obviously Arsenal would be higher on this list. In their 14 matches over the past two months, they’ve played five matches against teams ranked 12th or higher here. (Their results in those five matches: four wins and a draw.) They’re No. 1 by a healthy margin in Opta’s power ratings, which currently give them an 94% chance of winning the Premier League and a 27% chance of winning the Champions League.

The standard might have slipped a hair, and their mere 1-in-4 chance in the Champions League is a reminder that they still have a haul ahead of them: They might have to beat Barça in the semis, then either Bayern, PSG, City, Liverpool or Chelsea in the finals. But this remains the best team in Europe, even if we pretended they were in danger in the Premier League for a moment.

Past two months: 14 matches, 29 points (2.07 PPG), +1.00 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Mainz (March 7), Porto (Europa League, March 12), RB Leipzig (March 15), at Porto (Europa League, March 19), at Augsburg (March 22), Borussia Dortmund (April 4)

In 14 matches over the past two months, Stuttgart have played only two teams in this top-30, falling 2-0 to Roma and thumping Bayer Leverkusen 4-1. But they generated a positive xG differential in both matches, and they’ve done so in 12 of the past 14 overall.

Do you need an antidote after watching Premier League teams play murderball and score only on set pieces? Watch Stuttgart instead. Their defense is above average, but they’re here because of an attack that scored at least three goals in nine of these 14 matches, almost all in open play. They’re getting contributions from plenty of players, but almost no one in Europe is doing sexier things with the ball than Deniz Undav, who has eight goals and seven assists in this span.

Sebastian Hoeness has been in Stuttgart long enough to reinvent his squad a few different times, and the current iteration might be his best yet.

9. AS Roma (Last time: 29)

Past two months: 12 matches, 22 points (1.83 PPG), +0.94 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Genoa (March 8), at Bologna (Europa League, March 12), at Como (March 15), Bologna (Europa League, March 19), Lecce (March 22), at Inter Milan (April 4)

Granted, they haven’t played Inter in a while — we’ll have to wait another month for that matchup — but after a rough patch in December, Roma are probably the second-hottest team in Italy. Gian Piero Gasperini’s squad has lost only one of its past nine matches in Serie A, and they’ve generated a positive xG differential in 11 of 12 matches overall. Donyell Malen has scored six goals in seven matches since arriving from Aston Villa (whom they could play in the Europa League quarterfinals), and the young trio of Matìas Soulè (22), Wesley (22) and Niccolò Pisilli (21) is thriving under Gasperini’s guidance. They could get Paulo Dybala back from injury soon, too.

10. Hoffenheim (Last time: unranked)

Past two months: 9 matches, 19 points (2.11 PPG), +0.93 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Heidenheim (March 7), Wolfsburg (March 14), at RB Leipzig (March 20), Mainz (April 4)

A year ago, Hoffenheim slogged their way through a “s— season” and finished just three points above the relegation playoff. Now they’re in third place in the Bundesliga and threatening to grab their second ever Champions League berth. (They went winless in the group stage in 2018-19.) They won six out of seven to start 2026, and while they were outclassed in a dire 5-1 defeat to Bayern on Feb. 8, two other recent blemishes — a 2-2 draw with Koln and a 1-0 loss to St. Pauli were unfortunate (xG differential in those matches: +2.7).

Andrej Kramaric, 34 years old and the source of the “s— season” comment, has scored seven goals in this span, and Hoffenheim’s ability to counterattack with abandon and play at a far higher tempo than most teams in 2025-26 is making a huge difference.

11. Como (Last time: unranked)

Past two months: 13 matches, 23 points (1.77 PPG), +0.89 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Cagliari (March 7), Roma (March 15), Pisa (March 22), at Udinese (April 4)

At this point, we’ve just about shifted from “Will Como grab a spot in a European competition for the first time?” to “Will Como play in the Champions League next season?”

Opta’s supercomputer now gives Cesc Fabregas’ squad an 80.9% chance of finishing in the top six — they’re currently in fifth, one point ahead of Juventus and three ahead of Atalanta — and a decent 26.5% chance of finishing in the top four. Not bad for a club that ended a two-decade top-division absence less than two years ago.

They’ve been a bit unfortunate of late, too: They’ve had a positive xG differential in 11 of the 13 matches in this two-month sample, but they’ve won only six of those games.

12. Chelsea (Last time: 13)

Past two months: 14 matches, 24 points (1.71 PPG), +0.87 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Wrexham (FA Cup, March 7), at PSG (Champions League, March 11), Newcastle (March 14), PSG (Champions League, March 17), at Everton (March 21)

In the past two months, Chelsea have played 11 teams not named Arsenal and have generated a positive xG differential in all 11 matches. They managed to lose to Fulham and draw with Leeds and Burnley in that span (combined xGD in those matches: plus-4.0), but there was quite a bit of misfortune involved there. They’ve been mostly strong since Liam Rosenior took over as manager, and João Pedro and Cole Palmer have combined for 16 goals and five assists in this two-month span. Granted, four of Palmer’s six goals have been penalties, but his non-penalty numbers are improving, too, and he’s starting to win one-on-ones in extremely dangerous areas more frequently, too.

Even if they can’t beat Arsenal, they can beat pretty much anyone else in a knockout tournament. That starts with PSG in the next round of the Champions League.

Past two months: 13 matches, 27 points (2.08 PPG), +0.87 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Celta Vigo (March 6), Manchester City (Champions League, March 11), Elche (March 14), at Manchester City (Champions League, March 17), Atletico Madrid (March 22), at Mallorca (April 5)

If this list were based on vibes instead of stats, Real Madrid would be nowhere close to the top 20. Since panic-firing Xabi Alonso almost exactly two months ago, they’ve suffered losses to Albacete in the Copa del Rey, Benfica in the final matchday of the Champions League league phase (which forced them to win a two-legged tie against Benfica to advance to the round of 16) and both Osasuna and Getafe in back-to-back LaLiga matches.

After briefly rising to first in the league, they’re now four points behind the aforementioned torrid Barça. Oh yeah, and Kylian Mbappé can’t get his knee right, Jude Bellingham is battling a hamstring issue and Rodrygo just tore an ACL. They’ve enjoyed enough strong performances to place themselves in a decent position on this list, but, well, they’re not paying to be the 13th-best team in Europe.

14. AC Milan (Last time: unranked)

Past two months: 10 matches, 19 points (1.90 PPG), +0.80 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Inter Milan (March 8), at Lazio (March 15), Torino (March 21), at Napoli (April 4)

Despite having no European competition on the docket — and therefore focusing all of their attention on Serie A play — Milan haven’t been able to keep up with rival Inter in the race for the Scudetto, but they’re nine points ahead of fifth-place Como, so they’re all but assured a spot back in next year’s Champions League. They’re also playing pretty good ball. They’ve lost only once in the past two months — an unfortunate 1-0 defeat to 12th-place Parma (xG differential: plus-1.0) — and they took four key points in two matches against Como in that span.

Veterans Adrien Rabiot and Luka Modric are as creative as ever, and they’re playing at a solid level despite poor recent finishing from Christopher Nkunku, Christian Pulisic and Niclas Füllkrug (combined: four goals from shots worth 9.3 xG).

15. Juventus (Last time: 4)

Past two months: 14 matches, 21 points (1.50 PPG), +0.79 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Pisa (March 7), at Udinese (March 14), Sassuolo (March 21), Genoa (April 4)

It either all works or all doesn’t for Juve under Luciano Spalletti. In the past two months, they’ve generated an xG differential of plus-1.0 or higher in seven of 14 matches and plus-2.4 or higher. They pummeled Napoli in January, and they were good enough against Galatasaray to nearly come back from a three-goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League round-of-24 tie. But they’ve also suffered an xG differential of minus-0.8 or worse three times, including losses at Inter and Galatasaray. They lost by multiple goals to Como and Atalanta, too.

They’ve flashed massive upside, but they’ve been eliminated from the Champions League, and they’re four points outside of the Serie A top four.

16. Celta Vigo (Last time: unranked)

Past two months: 12 matches, 24 points (2.00 PPG), +0.73 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Real Madrid (March 6), Lyon (Europa League, March 12), at Real Betis (March 15), at Lyon (Europa League, March 19), Deportivo Alaves (March 22), at Valencia (April 5)

On Oct. 22, Celta Vigo were 17th in LaLiga, having battled a severe early-season cold streak while dealing with their first foray into Europe in nearly a decade. In the first two months of the season, they enjoyed only one win in any competition. But since Oct. 22, only the current LaLiga top four — Barca, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Villarreal — have generated more points in league play.

Celta Vigo are sixth in the table, and after a win over PAOK, they’ve advanced to the Europa League round of 16. They defend like crazy, preventing opponents from generating either shot quantity (they’re first in LaLiga in shots allowed per possession over these last two months) or shot quality (second in xG allowed per shot), but unlike a lot of defense-heavy teams, they play a solid possession game, too. And incredibly, Borja Iglesias (33 years old) and Iago Aspas (38) continue to produce, albeit on a limited diet of minutes. Fun story.

Past two months: 14 matches, 28 points (2.00 PPG), +0.58 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Newcastle (FA Cup, March 7), at Real Madrid (Champions League, March 11), at West Ham (March 14), Real Madrid (Champions League, March 17), vs. Arsenal (League Cup final, March 22)

An unlucky draw with Nottingham Forest on Wednesday (xG differential: plus-1.2) might have put an end to City’s Premier League title push, and their numbers in this two-month sample were dragged down by some bad performances in January. But they’ve made it to the EFL Cup final, and they’re still alive in the FA Cup and Champions League. Antoine Semenyo has played in only 10 of City’s 14 matches in this sample, but he leads the team with six goals, two more than Erling Haaland, and City’s increasing diversity in attack could allow for a very impressive run in knockout ties moving forward.

18. Bayer Leverkusen (Last time: unranked)

Past two months: 14 matches, 24 points (1.71 PPG), +0.55 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Freiburg (March 7), Arsenal (Champions League, March 11), Bayern Munich (March 14), at Arsenal (Champions League, March 17), at Heidenheim (March 21), Wolfsburg (April 4)

As with Juventus, Bayer Leverkusen’s results haven’t matched the underlying numbers — Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Hamburg ended a three-match winless streak driven by some suddenly bereft finishing — and they have quite a bit of work to do to assure a spot in next year’s Champions League. But while veterans like Alejandro Grimaldo (30), Robert Andrich (31) and Patrik Schick (30) continue to play major roles, Kasper Hjulmand has gotten lots of younger players involved, and that likely portends well for the future. Christian Kofane (19) has six goals and four assists in all competitions this season, and the left wing combo of Ibrahim Maza (20) and Ernest Poku (22) has combined for five assists from 23 chances created in these past two months.

However, I want to focus for a moment on one of those veterans:.

Aleix García was acquired a year and a half ago, seemingly as a tool Xabi Alonso could work particularly well with. But under Hjulmand, the 28-year-old is becoming a Vitinha-level ball progressor. Garcia, Vitinha and Juve’s Manuel Locatelli have by far the most progressive passes of anyone in this two-month sample.

19. Borussia Dortmund (Last time: 16)

Past two months: 13 matches, 23 points (1.77 PPG), +0.54 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Koln (March 7), Augsburg (March 14), Hamburg (March 21), at Stuttgart (April 4)

The season’s basically over in Dortmund. BVB have been perfectly solid in 2025-26, and they’re on this list because of a run of excellent performances against Union Berlin (3-0), Mainz (4-0) and Atalanta (2-0), among others. But if this form table were for only the last two weeks, they’d be nowhere near the top. In their past three matches, they’ve drawn 2-2 with RB Leipzig (xG differential: minus-0.3), lost 4-1 to Atalanta (minus-1.9) in the second leg of the Champions League knockout playoff and lost 3-2 to Bayern (minus-1.0) to basically finish off any hope of a comeback in the Bundesliga race.

They’re 11 points behind Bayern, but they’re also eight points ahead of fifth-place RBL. They must steer out of this mini-skid to make sure they’re in next season’s Champions League — and they must do so despite a run of defensive injuries (and a recent torn ACL for captain Emre Can) — but as it’s Dortmund, they’ll probably do so.

20. Strasbourg (Last time: 25)

Past two months: 7 matches, 11 points (1.57 PPG), +0.53 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Auxerre (March 7), at Rijeka (Conference League, March 12), Paris FC (March 15), Rijeka (Conference League, March 19), at Nantes (March 22), Nice (April 5)

The Conference League is open for the taking, and if Crystal Palace are unable to find a sustainable rhythm down the stretch, Strasbourg might be the favorites. They’re nearly co-faves already, per DraftKings, and over the past two months no one in Europe has done a better job of attempting high-quality shots (fourth in xG per shot) while allowing almost none (first in xG allowed per shot). They’re into the Coupe de France semifinals, too, and the transition from head coach Liam Rosenior to Gary O’Neil has been successful.

Strasbourg fans have been awfully frustrated with basically being turned into a Chelsea farm team, and it has cast a pall on what might end up being the club’s best season since the 1970s. But it’s definitely shaping up to be a successful season.

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THE REST OF THE TOP 30

21. Real Sociedad (+0.47 adj. goal differential)
22. Atletico Madrid (+0.47)
23. Atalanta (+0.47)
22. Manchester United (+0.42)
25. Brentford (+0.33)
26. Newcastle (+0.30)
27. Brest (+0.30)
28. Bournemouth (+0.29)
29. Rayo Vallecano (+0.28)
30. Girona (+0.27)

Actually, let’s go to 32 teams because No. 32 is pretty intriguing.

31. RB Leipzig (+0.25)
32. West Ham (+0.23)

Nottingham Forest is 38th (+0.12), too. The battle to avoid the last Premier League relegation spot — Wolves and Burnley are as good as done — is going to be absolutely fascinating down the home stretch. West Ham’s relegation odds are down to 52.7%, per Opta, and Forest are at 29.9%. (At 8.8% and 8.2%, respectively, Leeds and Tottenham are still in danger but aren’t relegation favorites by any means.)

With the balance the Premier League has created this year, either a particularly hot team or a particularly talented team is likely to go down.

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AND FINALLY … NOTEWORTHY TEAMS ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE

43. Napoli (-0.04 adj. goal differential)
57. Aston Villa (-0.22)
64. Marseille (-0.31)
65. Real Betis (-0.31)
67. Tottenham Hotspur (-0.32)
69. Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.33)
96. Wolfsburg (-1.18)

In my previous rankings from December, Real Betis were 12th, Marseille were 20th and Villa were 23rd. Things have taken a bit of a turn there, but nothing compares to the dire turn Wolfsburg have taken.

Winners of the Bundesliga in 2008-09, Wolfsburg were in the Champions League as recently as 2021-22 and made it to the Champions League quarterfinals a decade ago. But in the past two months they’ve taken just five points from nine matches, and they’ve lost 8-1 to Bayern and 4-0 to Stuttgart. They’re 17th in the 18-team Bundesliga, and Opta gives them a 48.8% chance of automatic relegation with a 20.5% chance of landing in the relegation playoff. There’s time to rally, but there won’t be for too much longer.