On the rise? Teams, players poised to improve in 2026

With spring finally on the horizon after a long winter for much of the country, optimism is in the air.

In that spirit, we asked our college football reporters about teams and players they think will be on the rise in the 2026 season.

No one rose higher than national champion Indiana and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza last year, but plenty of teams took big steps in the right direction. Texas Tech, Miami, Oklahoma and Ole Miss are among the teams that made the College Football Playoff for the first time, and Houston, Utah and Virginia went from losing records in 2024 to double-digit wins in 2025.

Who could be in store for similar improvement this fall and beyond? These are the potential CFP contenders, breakout performers and bounce-back candidates our reporters have their eyes on.

Which non-CFP team from last year do you expect to make the playoff in 2026?

Adam Rittenberg: Texas. If the Longhorns can’t make the College Football Playoff in quarterback Arch Manning‘s second season as the starter, with all the talent around him on both sides of the ball, something is wrong in Austin. Manning looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate late in the 2025 season, and Texas made major portal investments in wide receiver Cam Coleman, linebacker Rasheem Biles, running back Hollywood Smothers and others. The Longhorns face a challenging schedule, but two of their toughest games (Ohio State, Ole Miss) will be at home. Coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is talented and experienced enough to return to the CFP.

Jake Trotter: Notre Dame honestly should have been in the playoff this past season. CJ Carr had a strong freshman season, ranking eighth nationally with a QBR of 83.4, and figures to be sharper with a year of experience under his belt. Even with running back Jeremiyah Love moving on to the NFL, the Irish will still have weapons, especially if wideout Jaden Greathouse can return to his 2024 playoff form coming off a serious hamstring injury. The defense will be seasoned. And off the playoff snub, coach Marcus Freeman will have his team playing with an edge.

Andrea Adelson: I was tempted to say LSU because Lane Kiffin put together one of the best portal classes in the country, but then I remembered Brian Kelly put together one of the best portal classes in the country last year and that did not exactly work out. Still, I think LSU will be in the mix late. The team I am going with is BYU. The Cougars return quarterback Bear Bachmeier and leading rusher LJ Martin, shored up their offensive line and made some key transfer portal additions on defense, starting with standout linebacker Cade Uluave from Cal. The schedule is manageable, though an October matchup with Notre Dame in Provo could have huge CFP implications.

Heather Dinich: Texas is my preseason No. 1, but I’ll add USC to this conversation. The pressure is on coach Lincoln Riley, who hasn’t reached 10 wins since his first season, and the pieces are in place to get there. With quarterback Jayden Maiava returning, along with all five starting offensive linemen and running back King Miller, the offense has the potential to be potent. Riley lured in the No. 1 recruiting class and also has help coming from the transfer portal. If he can upgrade the defense, which allowed 23 points per game last year, USC should be a playoff team. The Trojans should be 3-0 heading into their Sept. 26 home game against Oregon, and a win against the Ducks would change the narrative and position USC for a playoff run.

David Hale: This is, perhaps, an outside-the-box pick, but I’ll offer Louisville as an under-the-radar option. The ACC may have a clear-cut favorite in Miami, but beyond that, the league is wide open. The ACC has given us two first-time playoff programs in the past two years — SMU and Miami — and it certainly wouldn’t be a stretch to add another in 2026. And although Louisville hasn’t been a true playoff contender late in the season the past few years, the Cardinals’ 28 wins since 2023 are the second most by any Power 4 program to not make the playoff (Missouri has 29). What’s more, of Louisville’s 12 losses under Jeff Brohm, eight have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a field goal or less last year. Brohm might have something special in QB transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who brings an added dimension of athleticism to the position that Brohm hasn’t had in the past. Add in a deep corps of running backs and an improved defense, led by Clev Lubin, and there’s a lot to like about this year’s Louisville team.

Eli Lederman: This prediction relies on a lot of “what ifs,” but why can’t a Michigan team that finished 9-4 with loads of on- and off-field issues a year ago play its way into the 12-team field in 2026? The arrival of longtime Utah coach Kyle Whittingham should bring sorely needed stability to Ann Arbor this offseason, and he brought a number of key former Utes with him, including offensive coordinator Jason Beck and star defensive end John Henry Daley. Any level of success this fall will be tied heavily to the Year 2 progression of coveted quarterback Bryce Underwood. Beck’s innovative scheme and fresh skill talent, including five-star freshman rusher Savion Hiter and Utah transfer pass catcher JJ Buchanan, should certainly help. Meanwhile, Michigan plugged some key holes on defense through the additions of Daley and fellow ex-Utes Jonah Lea’ea and Smith Snowden. Visits from Oklahoma, Penn State and Indiana combined with November trips to Oregon and Ohio State make for a daunting schedule but could provide the platform for the Wolverines to get back to the CFP if Whittingham can execute a quick turnaround.

Schlabach: BYU narrowly missed making the CFP in 2025, losing to Texas Tech 34-7 in the Big 12 title game. The Cougars fell to the Red Raiders twice last season — they lost 29-7 on the road in the regular season — so they’re going to have to figure out how to crack Tech’s stingy defense. But the Cougars did a great job of keeping coach Kalani Sitake around after he was wooed by Penn State. BYU brings back Bachmeier, who completed 64.9% of his passes for 3,033 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions as a freshman. He should be much better in Year 2. Martin, the Big 12’s leading rusher with 1,305 yards and 12 scores in 2025, also came back. BYU will need to rebuild its offensive line and find some reliable receivers. The best news? The Cougars won’t play the Red Raiders nor Houston in the regular season, and they’ll face Arizona and Arizona State at home.

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Which team will show the greatest improvement from last year?

Rittenberg: Virginia Tech. I also expect James Franklin’s former Penn State team to rise in 2026, but Virginia Tech certainly will improve on a 3-9 mark from last season. Franklin has had a head start on most new coaches in implementing his vision and had a solid portal haul, which included Penn State imports quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer and tight end Luke Reynolds. A favorable first-half schedule should help the Hokies build confidence and belief. Expect them to pull off one notable upset in November, too.

Trotter: After going 0-18 in the Big 12 over the past two years, Oklahoma State, behind new coach Eric Morris and an array of talented transfers, will bounce back to finish with a winning conference record in 2026. The North Texas star transfer trio of quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and wideout Wyatt Young will ensure that the Cowboys get back to putting up points after two dismal offensive seasons in Stillwater. Don’t be stunned if the revamped Pokes make a run to the Big 12 title game.

Adelson: I think Florida will have a chance to double its win total from a year ago for a few reasons. First, new coach Jon Sumrall made a great hire in offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who will have familiarity with his quarterback, Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo, plus former Jackets receivers Eric Singleton Jr. and Bailey Stockton. Jadan Baugh, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III return on offense, giving Florida playmaking ability. Second, the schedule sets up nicely for a rebound. Florida had one of the toughest schedules in the country the past two years. With the new nine-game conference schedule in the SEC, Florida has a more manageable nonconference slate and faces only four teams ranked in our Way-Too-Early Top 25.

Dinich: Clemson because … there’s just no way Dabo Swinney can lose six games again. Can he? Bringing back former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris is interesting because he hasn’t called plays since 2020 and hasn’t coached at Clemson since 2014. He’s a proven playcaller, though, who helped the Tigers to a 41-11 record during his tenure. How first-year starting quarterback Christopher Vizzina fares is a valid question, but when searching for a team that will make a significant leap this fall, it’s hard to believe Clemson will continue to be irrelevant in the ACC race. With a road opener at LSU, the Tigers will find out early how far their climb back will be.

Hale: Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State feel like obvious answers here, if only because there’s so much room for improvement. And it’s tempting to say Bill Belichick will pull off a miracle at North Carolina after a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2025, but its schedule doesn’t look promising. So, who’s someone a bit outside the box? How about South Carolina? The pressure is on coach Shane Beamer after a disappointing 4-8 year, but LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart are back, five of the Gamecocks’ first six games come against teams that missed a bowl last year, and although the back end of the schedule is tougher, it would take only an upset or two to get South Carolina into the eight- or nine-win range. And if there’s anything we’ve learned from the Beamer-era Gamecocks, it’s that they tend to play their best when no one’s expecting it.

Schlabach: Penn State was finally able to lure Matt Campbell away from Iowa State, and he could be poised for a big turnaround in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions won their last four games to salvage a 7-6 campaign in 2026. Much of the roster followed Franklin to Virginia Tech and ex-defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Tennessee. But Campbell brought in 39 transfers, including two dozen from Iowa State. Quarterback Rocco Becht, tailback Carson Hansen, receiver Chase Sowell and tight end Benjamin Brahmer are plug-and-play starters on offense. The Nittany Lions don’t play Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon in the regular season, so a 10-win season isn’t out of the question.

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Which player do you think could take a major step forward in 2026?

Trotter: We started to see Manning live up to the hype and potential late last season, as he posted a QBR of 92 or above in four of his final five games. There’s little reason to believe he won’t carry that over into next season. With Coleman’s arrival, Manning will have a legitimate No. 1 receiver. With a year of experience, he could reemerge into the conversation as the top QB prospect heading into the 2027 NFL draft.

Adelson: As Jake noted above, Notre Dame’s Carr was one of the most impressive freshman quarterbacks in the country a year ago, and his trajectory should only go up from here. He was poised, accurate, did not make many mistakes and rarely got flustered last season. It will be an adjustment not having Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, but Carr is more than capable of shouldering the load if necessary.

Rittenberg: Remember Ryan Williams‘ electrifying, spin-infused 75-yard touchdown against Georgia early in the 2024 season? Then a 17-year-old freshman, the Alabama wide receiver was the talk of college football following a blistering start to his career. But Williams struggled with drops and inconsistency during a sophomore season that fell well short of expectations. He’s pushing forward, though, and clearly has the talent and experience to break through as a junior. The road to stardom isn’t always linear, and Williams shouldn’t be overlooked in 2026.

Dinich: Alabama linebacker Caleb Woodson, who transferred from Virginia Tech, should be someone casual fans get to know this fall. Coach Kalen DeBoer told me he was looking for a mature guy to help compensate for the loss of three senior linebackers who graduated, and Woodson started 17 games for the Hokies. Last year, he was second on the team with 58 tackles and had 2.5 TFLs. He’s the kind of player who can get to the quarterback, disrupt passing lanes and make game-changing plays. With the Tide’s entire secondary returning, Alabama’s defense should be fast and physical.

Hale: If you’re a buyer on Dabo Swinney’s “what’s old is new again” approach to Clemson’s offense for 2026 with new coordinator Chad Morris, then you might as well invest heavily in running back Gideon Davidson‘s stock, too. Entering his true freshman year in 2025, Davidson was hyped as a game changer, with Swinney lauding him as one of the most talented backs he’d ever recruited, and an expectation that, at least by year’s end, Davidson would seize the primary role in the ascendant Tigers’ backfield. Instead, both Davidson and Clemson disappointed. Davidson had just 12 carries by the end of October, and it was only after Clemson had effectively punted on any hopes for 2025 that he carved out a bigger role. Down the stretch, though, he had a few moments for optimism, and switching from the clearly ineffective RPO game favored by Garrett Riley back to a more straightforward, vertical offense with a power run component under Morris should help Davidson’s growth. It’s a dice roll, but there’s a lot of upside here.

Lederman: Cal‘s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele emerged as the most productive freshman quarterback in the country last fall when he threw for 3,454 yards, 12th most among returning FBS starters in 2026. With another year of experience, a new offensive coordinator in Jordan Somerville and a fairly generous ACC schedule, there’s every reason to believe the left-hander from Hawai’i will make another big jump this fall. First-year coach Tosh Lupoi has injected new energy in the Bears’ program, and Sagapolutele — the quarterback Lupoi went to see hours after his hiring back in December — is at the center of all the optimism hovering over Cal right now.

Schlabach: Georgia is going to have to identify playmakers at receiver after losing Zachariah Branch, Colbie Young, Dillon Bell and Noah Thomas to the NFL draft. The Bulldogs picked up Georgia Tech transfer Isiah Canion in the transfer portal, but the buzz in Athens is that sophomore Talyn Taylor is poised to break out in a big way. He had a critical drop in the Bulldogs’ 24-21 loss to Alabama and missed a long stretch with a broken collarbone. He finished with two catches for 28 yards in six games. But Taylor was the No. 4 receiver in the country as a senior at Geneva (Illinois) High School in the class of 2025 and has elite speed.

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Which off-the-radar team will we be talking about in December?

Rittenberg: Washington. I actually liked Jedd Fisch’s team in this category a year ago, but the Huskies struggled to keep pace with their toughest opponents. In hindsight, Year 3 always seemed more sensible for a potential breakthrough, as Fisch and his staff have gradually improved the roster. The fallout from quarterback Demond Williams Jr.’s near exit in January is worth watching, but if things are stable there, Washington should take a step forward offensively. Washington’s schedule also helps as its toughest games in September and October are at home — USC and Iowa in consecutive weeks. The Huskies conclude the regular season with Indiana (home) and Oregon (road).

Trotter: Last season was a disaster for the Gamecocks, who finished with only one SEC win. But two years ago, South Carolina was the hottest team in college football heading into December and nearly snuck into the playoff. The Gamecocks return two absolute stars in Sellers and Stewart. With better pass protection for Sellers — the Gamecocks are hopeful left tackle transfer Jacarrius Peak (NC State) will be ready to go after an offseason basketball injury — South Carolina could be a sleeper playoff contender come December.

Adelson: I am not sure whether it is fair to call SMU under the radar considering the Mustangs have won 42 games over the past four years, including 20 in their first two years in the ACC. But SMU should be considered a CFP contender this year. With quarterback Kevin Jennings returning, a strong offensive line and another solid portal class, SMU simply finds ways to win and stay relevant in the national conversation. The first three weeks of the season are hugely important. SMU opens at Florida State on Labor Day night, then plays at Louisville two weeks later.

Dinich: Boise State. The highest-ranked Group of 6 team will make the playoff this year — not the highest-ranked Group of 6 champion, which is different from previous seasons. Boise State will also be competing for a Pac-12 title this year after conference realignment, and the Broncos have one of the better schedules to impress the selection committee, starting with their season opener at Oregon. With senior quarterback Maddux Madsen returning, the Broncos should be in a position to contend for the Group of 6 spot.

Hale: Let’s go way off the radar. Like, so far off the radar, many people might not even realize what conference this team is in. But, here’s the case for Cal. First, the Golden Bears might have the best young QB in the country in Sagapolutele. Second, new coach Lupoi is coming from a program (Oregon) that has created a strong blueprint on how to win in the Northwest. Third, Lupoi inked one of the top portal classes in the country, completely renovating an offense that offered far too little support for its burgeoning star QB last year. And Lupoi is a defensive guru who has brought a handful of impact players with him from Oregon and stocked the rest of the unit with plenty of upside. Then, look at the schedule: Aside from a trip to UNLV (no easy win), five of Cal’s first six opponents lost at least six games last year. The Bears miss Miami, Louisville and Florida State. The only games where Cal figures to be at a distinct talent disadvantage are vs. Clemson and at SMU (and that talent disadvantage isn’t as huge as it might seem based on reputations). A lot would have to go right for Cal to make a run at the playoff — and, frankly, Cal isn’t a place where a lot has gone right in recent years — but on paper, there’s certainly a formula in which this all works out beautifully in Year 1 for Lupoi.

Lederman: Predicting a Group of 6 CFP contender this time of year is a bit of a fool’s errand … which is why it’s fun to dive into all the various possibilities, including San Diego State building on its 2025 momentum and thrusting itself into the CFP mix this fall. The Aztecs followed up a 3-9 finish in 2024 with a 9-4 campaign in coach Sean Lewis’ second season ahead of the program’s long-anticipated move into the reformed Pac-12 in 2026. Between quarterback Jayden Denegal and reigning All-Mountain West first-team running back Lucky Sutton, SDSU returns the foundational players in the nation’s 19th-ranked rushing offense in 2025. How the Aztecs rebuild following the departure of coordinator Rob Aurich and a number of starters from college football’s No. 6 defense, including Trey White and Owen Chambliss, will, of course, be critical. But with a friendly schedule and résumé-boosting opportunity in a late November trip to Boise State, SDSU has every chance of being in the CFP conversation come late fall.