⚾ Big USA-Dominican Republic WBC showdown

The first World Baseball Classic semifinal is set — and it is the matchup many have been dreaming about from the start of the WBC: Team USA vs. the Dominican Republic.

After Team USA downed Canada and the D.R. mercy ruled Venezuela on Friday night, the top two teams in our WBC Power Rankings will square off Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.

Who has the edge in this star-studded showdown? And who are the X factors who will decide which team moves on to Tuesday’s championship? ESPN baseball experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan weigh in ahead of the semifinal — and be sure to come back to this page at first pitch for live analysis and highlights from Miami.

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Just how excited should baseball fans be for this Team USA-Dominican Republic showdown?

Castillo: Very. While the 2023 final between Team USA and Japan was incredible theater, these are the best teams in this tournament. Paul Skenes vs. Plátano Power. All-Stars at nearly every position. A raucous atmosphere in Miami. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Passan: Excited is only the beginning. This is a dream matchup. It is a Dominican lineup loaded with All-Stars and MVP candidates and future Hall of Famers against one of the two best pitchers in the world. The Dominicans are the unstoppable force. Skenes is the immovable object. Sunday night’s game will play out in real time what happens when the two meet. It’s trite to say this is the real final, but with reigning champion Japan out of the tournament after losing to Venezuela on Saturday night, this is unquestionably the marquee matchup of the WBC. You don’t need to love baseball to love U.S. vs. D.R.

Gonzalez: I’ll try to put Jeff’s words in statistical perspective: The two projected starting lineups in this game will feature a combined 52 All-Star Games, 32 Silver Sluggers, 11 Gold Gloves and five MVPs, all from players still in their primes. Of those 18 players, 17 cracked our preseason MLB Rank top 100. Fifteen fell within the top 50. And none of this even accounts for arguably the greatest pitcher in the world — Skenes, Team USA’s starter. This could be a once-in-a-lifetime matchup. Enjoy it.

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What’s the biggest thing the Dominican Republic must do to win tonight?

Castillo: Keep it close early. The Americans have the starting pitching advantage with Skenes on the mound, but the Dominican Republic bullpen is stout, and the offense won’t be shut down all night long.

Gonzalez: Hand its bullpen a lead. The Dominican Republic was tested against Venezuela in the pool-play finale, but the D.R. has beaten its four other opponents by a combined score of 44-5.

By the time this semifinal matchup rolls around, its best relievers will be pretty well rested. And if the Dominicans can unleash the likes of Camilo Doval, Carlos Estevez, Seranthony Dominguez, Wandy Peralta, Dennis Santana and Abner Uribe, the U.S. will be swimming upstream.

Passan: Drive up Skenes’ pitch count and try to chase him by the fourth inning. Team USA manager Mark DeRosa said Skenes would throw 75 to 80 pitches — well shy of the maximum 95 allowed in the semifinals and finals. While Skenes typically limits walks, he does have a tendency to run up pitch counts. If the D.R. can force DeRosa to go to his bullpen, that’s a benefit for it: As good as it is, it’s not as good as Skenes.

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Who is the one player who must shine for the D.R. in the semifinal?

Castillo: Fernando Tatis Jr. sets the tone atop the explosive Dominican lineup and has been a problem for opposing pitchers in this tournament. The San Diego Padres right fielder is 7-for-16 with two home runs, 11 RBIs and a 1.404 OPS in five games. When he applies pressure in front of Ketel Marte, Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Dominicans are nearly impossible to slow down.

Gonzalez: This might look like a lopsided pitching matchup on paper, but Luis Severino‘s stuff looked electric in his prior start against the Netherlands. His fastball reached 99 mph, and his sinker and cutter were all consistently in the mid- to upper-90s. Severino struggled mightily while spending half his time in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento last season. But if he looks closer to what he was with the Mets the prior year, the Dominican Republic will be in good hands.

Passan: In the limited at-bats Dominican players have taken against Skenes, center fielder Julio Rodriguez has found the most success, going 3 for 6 with a pair of doubles. Of the D.R. regulars, Rodriguez has struggled the most, going 3 for 15 with a home run and four RBIs, and while he finds himself toward the bottom of the cartoonish lineup, he’s every bit as capable of unleashing the biggest swing of the tournament as those in front of him.

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What’s the biggest thing Team USA must do to win tonight?

Castillo: Make Severino work. While the Dominican Republic’s bullpen is electric, the Dominicans don’t have a long man behind Severino because Brayan Bello returned to the Boston Red Sox to pitch on Saturday and will not be available. If the Americans can chase Severino early, Dominican manager Albert Pujols would have to piece it together against a dangerous U.S. lineup.

Gonzalez: This lineup was sold as arguably the greatest ever assembled when this tournament began, but we have yet to really see that against the best competition. Against Italy in the pool-play finale, the U.S. was blanked through the first five innings by Michael Lorenzen. In the quarterfinals against Canada — a game started by Michael Soroka, who has put up a 4.91 ERA in the majors over the past three years, with no dominant relievers behind him — the U.S. strung together just eight hits. The Dominican lineup has been a force in this tournament, already tying a WBC record with 14 home runs. The U.S. needs to show up offensively.

Passan: Get an early lead. The Dominicans have finished every inning of the tournament holding the lead, so for the U.S. to punch them in the mouth would not only send a message that their romp through the WBC will not continue unabated — it would also be a reminder to a Team USA that has looked like a C-plus version of itself that greatness does indeed remain within. The games the Americans have won came via early leads and bend-but-don’t-break bullpen work. That formula, even if it calls for a few antacid pills, can be enough for a championship.

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Who is the one player who must shine for the U.S. in the semifinal?

Castillo: In a lineup filled with All-Stars, Aaron Judge, the best hitter in the world, remains a notch above the rest. The three-time MVP has two home runs and six walks in this tournament. Pitching around him is a scary proposition with Kyle Schwarber looming in the on-deck circle. The three-time AL MVP will have chances to impact this game.

Gonzalez: Bryce Harper is 3-for-20 in this tournament with zero extra-base hits, seven strikeouts and just one walk. He is hitting in a critical part of the lineup, sandwiched between Bobby Witt Jr. and Judge, and desperately needs to come through.

Harper has carried the spotlight on him since high school, but it feels a little brighter than usual in this moment. Prominent in people’s minds whenever he comes to bat is that “not elite” comment from Dave Dombrowski, which clearly bothered him, and his own comments about the Olympics essentially being more important than this tournament. Harper can quiet the noise with one big game.

Passan: Despite his offense’s issues, DeRosa said after Team USA’s quarterfinal win: “I don’t see any crazy changes taking place. We’ll roll with the dudes.” Well, one of those dudes needs to be Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who in his career is 7 for 9 against Severino. Where does he play? That’s the difficult part. It’s not at shortstop, where Bobby Witt Jr. is a must-start. It could be at third base, where he has played, but that would displace Alex Bregman. And putting Bregman at second base would put Brice Turang, arguably the United States’ best hitter in the tournament so far, on the bench. DeRosa does not have an easy choice to make. Whatever he does, though, needs to include Henderson.