Who will face the U.S. in the WBC final? Keys, X factors for Italy-Venezuela

One semifinal down, one to go.

The United States took down the Dominican Republic 2-1 on Sunday night to return to its third consecutive World Baseball Classic final. Italy and Venezuela will face off Monday with a trip to the final on the line. Get ready for some more action-packed baseball!

Who has the edge in Monday night’s showdown between the red-hot teams? And who are the X factors who will decide which moves on to Tuesday’s championship? ESPN baseball experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan weigh in ahead of the matchup — and we’ve got you covered later with live updates from Miami as the game gets underway at 8 p.m. ET, as well as postgame takeaways.

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How excited should baseball fans be for this showdown?

Castillo: Not as excited as for Sunday’s heavyweight fight between Team USA and the Dominican Republic, unless you have a rooting interest. That doesn’t mean it won’t provide good entertainment. Italy has been the big surprise of the tournament, making its first WBC semifinal. Venezuela, meanwhile, is a baseball power that finally broke through the quarterfinals and qualified for its first Olympics. The crowd will undoubtedly lean heavily toward Venezuela in Miami. The atmosphere should be electric. The matchup just won’t be as star-studded as Sunday’s clash.

What’s the biggest thing Venezuela must do to win?

Castillo: Keider Montero needs to give the Venezuelans some innings. Manager Omar Lopez had to turn to his bullpen earlier than he envisioned in the win over Japan after Ranger Suarez logged just 2⅔ innings. Six relievers held Japan without a run. The tournament’s pitch count limitations won’t prevent Lopez from using any of those relievers again against Italy, but he — and the pitchers’ MLB clubs — would rather avoid overuse with a potential final Tuesday.

Montero tossed three scoreless innings out of the bullpen in Venezuela’s win over Nicaragua in pool play. Monday will be his first start of the competition. With an 80-pitch restriction, Lopez will look for Montero to give him at least five innings against the tournament’s second-highest scoring offense through the quarterfinals.

Gonzalez: Aaron Nola‘s curveball was his signature pitch in his prime. And though the results of it have fallen off in recent years, it was a major weapon in his last start in this tournament. Nola generated seven swings and misses off his curveball while throwing five scoreless innings in a pool-play start against Mexico, during which he allowed just five baserunners. That pitch is especially effective against right-handed hitters, who carried an expected slugging percentage of just .245 against it last season. Most of the dangerous hitters in Venezuela’s lineup — Ronald Acuna Jr., Maikel Garcia, Eugenio Suarez, Gleyber Torres, Jackson Chourio — bat right-handed.

Passan: Stop the potent Italian offense. From top to bottom, Italy’s lineup gave fits to teams in Pool B and then did the same to Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. The notion of an Italian baseball team as an offensive juggernaut remains somewhat confounding, but the bats have carried the Italians here with reason: They are patient, they are powerful, they are potent. And nobody — not even the American team that awaits the winner in the finals — has shut down the Italians yet. They’re not big names. But they’re young, hungry and convinced Venezuela is just another step on their way to a championship.

Who is the one player who must shine for Venezuela in the semifinal?

Castillo: Ronald Acuna Jr. provided an immediate jolt against Japan with a leadoff home run on the second pitch of the game. He struck out three times in his final four at-bats, but he set the tone — and Venezuela needs him to continue doing that. Acuña is as talented as any position player in the majors. His energy is infectious. A strong showing from him will make Venezuela difficult to beat.

Gonzalez: Jackson Chourio. Outside of Acuña, he is probably the most talented offensive player on this Venezuela team. But he hasn’t done much since getting hit on the left hand in Venezuela’s final exhibition game before the tournament began, going 2-for-9 with two walks and a couple of strikeouts. He is one of many — along with Eugenio Suarez, Salvador Perez, William Contreras, Andres Gimenez, Gleyber Torres and others — who haven’t done quite enough offensively yet.

Passan: Garcia might be the most underrated player in baseball, and there’s a reason he’s batting No. 2 in the Venezuelan lineup: He has earned it. In this very Kansas City Royals-centric WBC — with both captains of the second semifinal game, Salvador Perez (Venezuela) and Vinnie Pasquantino (Italy) on the Royals as well as Team USA shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. — Garcia has been arguably the best of the bunch, clutch all tournament, including against Japan, when he hit a big home run. Another Monday would be even bigger.

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What’s the biggest thing Italy must do to win?

Castillo: Italy needs to keep hitting. Italy needs to keep on hitting. Nola replicating the performance he had against Mexico (five scoreless innings) a tough ask. Japan witnessed firsthand Venezuela’s firepower. And Italy has some of its own, scoring 40 runs through five games and at least seven in each game. The Italians banged 12 home runs in the first four games — taking an espresso shot in celebration each time — but beat Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals without hitting a ball over the wall. Whatever it takes to keep up with the Venezuelans.

Gonzalez: Get the ball to Greg Weissert. The Boston Red Sox reliever has been lights out for Italy in this tournament, recording three saves, striking out five batters and not allowing a run in 3⅓ innings. With Team USA rallying in the pool-play finale, Weissert came out of the bullpen to strike out Aaron Judge and seal an improbable win. And with Puerto Rico rallying in the quarterfinals, Weissert recorded the game’s final five outs, moving Italy into the semifinals. The team will need another standout effort from him.

Passan: Knock Venezuela on its heels early. It’s what the Italian offense has done. Against the United States. Against Mexico. Against Puerto Rico. All good teams with good pitchers, and Italy — which has an average lineup age of less than 24 years old — has gotten after them early. The Italians’ bullpen is susceptible, as Italy’s relievers have also illustrated in nearly blowing some of the big leads. So the more leeway the Italians can give themselves for some late-innings drama, the likelier they are to advance.

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Who is the one player who must shine for Italy in the semifinal?

Castillo: Vinnie Pasquantino has four hits in this competition. Three were home runs in Italy’s win over Mexico in pool play. Otherwise, the Italian captain is 1-for-16 with six walks. Italy obviously hasn’t needed Pasquantino to shine in most games, but he’s the most accomplished hitter in this lineup and teams need their best hitters to step up in the biggest games.

Gonzalez: For as much as Pasquantino has struggled in this tournament, Jac Caglianone, the former two-way player and No. 6 pick in the 2024 draft, has surged, going 4-for-11 with two extra-base hits and, just as important, four walks. Italy has had a lot of unlikely stars in this incredible run. But at the end of the day, against the best competition, the two best hitters need to set the tone.

Passan: I’m going to break the rules and go with two: With Nola starting and Michael Lorenzen expected to piggyback, the Italians are primed to use their two best pitchers in an effort to get to the finals, at which point they would go full bullpen game. Nola is by far the most pedigreed player on Italy, a high-end innings eater for the last decade who threw five shutout innings in his lone WBC start. Lorenzen was arguably even better against the United States, throwing 4.2 shutout innings, and with a seven-pitch mix and an overwhelmingly right-handed Venezuela lineup, he could give Venezuela fits. The Italians are all-in at this point, intent on reaching the finals and knowing they can do again what they’ve done already.