NHL playoff watch: Projecting the Sabres' first-round opponent

The last time the Buffalo Sabres played a game in the Stanley Cup playoffs was April 26, 2011, a 5-2 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers that eliminated them from contention.

For reference, the No. 1 song that day was “S&M” by Rihanna, featuring Britney Spears, and the No. 1 movie was the animated film “Rio.”

Many in the hockeysphere have been hoping for a return of playoff hockey to Buffalo, and it appears those folks will get their wish this spring. And the Sabres aren’t just returning — they might win the Atlantic Division!

So now instead of watching the out-of-town scoreboard to chase a playoff berth, Sabres fans can instead start to scout potential first-round opponents. Depending on whether the Sabres finish first in the division — and thus draw a wild-card opponent — or finish second and face the third seed (or vice versa), that changes the field of who they could play.

Per Stathletes, these are the five highest-probability first-round opponents for the Sabres: Montreal Canadiens (32.64%), Ottawa Senators (23.96%), Boston Bruins (22.19%), Detroit Red Wings (10.80%), New York Islanders (3.40%).

Buffalo plays four out of five of those teams in the remaining schedule, including a tilt against the Bruins on Wednesday (7:30 p.m., TNT). Overall, the Sabres have gone 1-1-1 against the B’s this season.

Sabres fans might be hoping for a non-Bruins opponent: The team has gone 2-0-0 this season against the Senators, Red Wings and Islanders, and 2-2-0 against the Canadiens.

Then again, given how hot the Sabres have been in the past few months, perhaps the opponent won’t matter!

Every team has around 12 games remaining before the regular season concludes April 16, and we’ll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch every day. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Buffalo Sabres vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Ottawa Senators
M2 Columbus Blue Jackets vs. M3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Vegas Golden Knights

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Today’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m.

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Last night’s scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 2
Montreal Canadiens 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Florida Panthers 5, Seattle Kraken 4 (SO)
Chicago Blackhawks 4, New York Islanders 3
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Colorado Avalanche 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Minnesota Wild 3
St. Louis Blues 3, Washington Capitals 0
Nashville Predators 6, San Jose Sharks 3
New Jersey Devils 6, Dallas Stars 4
Winnipeg Jets 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (SO)
Edmonton Oilers 5, Utah Mammoth 2
Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 3

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 109.7
Next game: vs. BOS (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 10
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 108.9
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 12
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: vs. CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 87.2%
Magic number: 17
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 99.3
Next game: @ BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 69.6%
Magic number: 19
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98.2
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 68%
Magic number: 20
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 97.0
Next game: @ BUF (Friday)
Playoff chances: 38.2%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 21

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 85.5
Next game: vs. MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 12

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: vs. NYR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 8

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Metro Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 110.9
Next game: vs. NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 9
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 100.5
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 85.8%
Magic number: 18
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 99.3
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 83.1%
Magic number: 19
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 96.8
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 50.9%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 20

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 93.7
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 10.6%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 19

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 90.0
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6.6%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 14

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 86.7
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 13

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 75.1
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 2

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Central Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 121.8
Next game: @ WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Magic number: IN
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 112.0
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Magic number: IN
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 104.8
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 4
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Magic number: 16
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 88.9
Next game: vs. NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 37.8%
Magic number: 19
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 17

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 80.8
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.6%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 16

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 77.4
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.2%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 12

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Pacific Division

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 97.0
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 12
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 90.0
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 79.7%
Magic number: 17
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 88.8
Next game: vs. EDM (Thurday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Magic number: 18
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 85.5
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 45.4%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 19

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 84.3
Next game: @ TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3.5%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 19

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 27.3%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 19

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 77.4
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 12

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 58.6
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: OUT

Note: An “x” with a team’s name means the club has clinched a playoff spot. An “e” means that the club has been mathematically eliminated.

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Atop draft boards for this summer is Gavin McKenna, a forward for Penn State.

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26

*Note: The Maple Leafs’ pick belongs to the Bruins, unless it lands in the top five.