Oil Tops $108 as Iran War Rattles Energy Markets — Experts Warn of $200 Risk if Conflict Extends to June

NEW YORK / LONDON, March 27, 2026 — Global oil markets surged again after Iran rejected direct negotiations with Washington, dashing hopes of near-term de-escalation. Brent crude futures jumped 5.66% to $108.01 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 4.61% to settle at $94.48 per barrel. 
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has assessed this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing from 20 million barrels per day to a trickle, and Gulf production cuts exceeding 10 million barrels per day. 
Unlike the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war — where disruptions were managed through rerouting and substitution — the 2026 Iran conflict has exposed a fundamental vulnerability: physical concentration of hydrocarbon flows in a critical chokepoint that cannot be bypassed when physically blocked. 
Expert Forecasts: Rystad Energy’s Janiv Shah warned that Brent could surge to $135 per barrel if current conditions persist for four months, and above $110 if they last two months.  (Substack) Multiple energy analysts have cautioned that a prolonged conflict through June could push prices toward $200 per barrel — levels not seen in modern history.
Goldman Sachs sharply raised its Brent price forecast, projecting an average of $110 per barrel in March and April — a 62% jump from the 2025 annual average — while noting that Hormuz flows remaining near 5% for 10 weeks would likely push prices past the 2008 record of $147 per barrel.  (Serrari Group)
The bank noted that near-term price movements are being driven less by changes in the base case and more by shifts in the perceived probability of worst-case scenarios, with crude effectively trading on a geopolitical risk premium as investors hedge against prolonged disruptions and critically low inventories. 
IEA member nations have already authorized a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest coordinated emergency response in history — yet analysts warn it only buys days, not weeks, of market stability.  (Serrari Group)