Your NCAA championship guide: Michigan vs. UConn predictions, keys to winning

INDIANAPOLIS — Who will cut down the nets at Lucas Oil Stadium?

ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down keys for Michigan and UConn in Monday’s national championship (8:50 p.m. ET) and make their predictions below.

Player who needs to step up: Aday Mara

Anyone who watched Yaxel Lendeborg after he sustained a left MCL sprain and left ankle sprain Saturday could tell that he wasn’t 100%. It’s unclear how much the All-American, who is expected to play after completing only 14 minutes of action against Arizona, could be limited. Either way, Michigan could use the boost it received from Mara in Lendeborg’s limited availability in the semifinal.

The 7-foot-3 center made sure Michigan didn’t skip a beat when its best player wasn’t on the court. When Lendeborg left the game with 8:51 to play in the first half, the Wolverines led by 14 points. By halftime, they were ahead by 16 points. Mara played a significant role in their ability to sustain their defensive excellence — they limited Arizona to 37% shooting from the field — and maintained their offensive production (120 points per 100 possessions) with Lendeborg sidelined. Mara finished with a game-high 26 points, nine rebounds and two blocks, and might have to carry a heavier load Monday. Based on what he did Saturday, though, he’s equipped for the role.

Potential fatal flaw: Effective passing from UConn.

The Michigan defense, anchored by length that only a handful of teams in the country can match, does not present many vulnerabilities. As the shot clock winds down, even good teams settle for tough shots against the Wolverines, and perhaps more importantly, resort to isolation plays rather than using good passing to set up a better shot.

Why does that matter? In Michigan’s three losses, there was at least one player on its opponent who registered six or more assists, and those teams collectively averaged a 64% assist rate. No team has done that against the Wolverines in the NCAA tournament. Arizona finished with only five total assists and a 19% assist rate against the Wolverines.

Every team that has defeated Michigan this season used effective passing to penetrate the best defense in America. UConn will have to do the same.

Michigan will win if: The Wolverines can guard UConn’s perimeter players.

Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball were a handful for an Illinois team that had to chase them off screens throughout Saturday’s game — both the first Mullins 3-pointer and his dagger with 52 seconds left were set up by a pair of pindown screens from Tarris Reed Jr. Later, Ball beat Illinois down the court on a fast-break dunk, and Karaban hit a 3-pointer in the corner after confusing the Illini on a slip screen.

The Huskies never stop moving in their half-court sets, which will put pressure on a Michigan lineup that features three big men who will have to guard in space to suppress UConn’s offensive attack. That defensive approach will demand a lot of energy from the Wolverines. — Medcalf

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Player who needs to step up: Alex Karaban

Karaban is 40 minutes away from cementing himself as arguably the most successful player in the history of college basketball to not play for UCLA — a win would make him only the 14th player and first non-Bruin to win three national championships — but he needs to play a huge role for UConn to clear the final hurdle. He looked like the Huskies’ most important player in the early stages of the NCAA tournament with 22 points in the first round against Furman, 27 points in the second round against UCLA and 17 points in the Sweet 16 against Michigan State. He shot 11-for-25 from 3-point range in those three games. But over his past two games, Karaban has totaled 14 points on 3-for-18 shooting from the field and 2-for-13 from 3-point range.

On paper, he poses a matchup problem for Michigan, given his endless off-ball movement on the offense, running around screens or off pindowns. Morez Johnson Jr. could have trouble keeping up with Karaban, and the Wolverines’ switching defenses could be a step slow as a result, but that will only matter if the senior forward makes them pay by making shots.

Potential fatal flaw: The free throw battle.

UConn ranks sub-300 in both free throw attempt rate and defensive free throw attempt rate, and hasn’t attempted more free throws than an opponent since a Feb. 28 win over Seton Hall, which is concerning against a Michigan team that ranked in the top three of the Big Ten in free throw rate at both ends.

Foul trouble became a major issue for UConn in the second half against Illinois on Saturday, and while coach Dan Hurley was able to steal extended minutes with only one starter on the court, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do that against Michigan. There’s also the simple factor of avoiding giving the Wolverines easy points at the line when they are already one of the country’s most efficient offensive teams, capable of scoring at will around the rim, making 3s consistently and overwhelming teams in transition. UConn can’t let them dominate the free throw differential too.

UConn will win if: The Huskies make shots and Tarris Reed Jr. stays on the court.

Despite UConn’s elite defense, Michigan is going to score points, so the Huskies will have to keep up on the offensive end — that comes down to shotmaking on the perimeter and Reed around the rim.

Karaban has to break out of his minislump, and Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball have to make shots. It’s really hard to beat Michigan solely on tough 2s given Aday Mara’s dominance around the rim, so UConn should lean into volume 3-point shooting the way it did in the win over Illinois. The Huskies attempted more 3-point shots than they have in almost two months (33 compared to just 29 2-pointers) and made a Final Four program record 12 3s on Saturday.

Down low, Reed has to continue to win his paint battles. Mara has been terrific, but Reed has been the best player in the NCAA tournament. This could come down to whether Reed scores consistently on Mara and can stay out of foul trouble at the other end against Mara and Johnson. — Borzello

NCAA championship predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Michigan, 79-75
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 83-73