2026 NFL quarterback mock draft: Team fits over seven rounds

It’s NFL draft season. Have you read enough mock drafts yet? They’re like multivitamins this time of year — you need your daily dose.

The mock I have for you today is different, though. Instead of focusing on a round or a team, I’m focusing on a position: quarterback. I tried to find the ideal landing spot for every single draftable quarterback in this 2026 class across all seven rounds — within the constraints of realism, of course. And I attempted to find a happy medium between scheme/system fit, team need and total draft capital, and I was mindful of both short- and long-term team-building horizons.

It’s very unlikely that I’ll get more than one pick exactly correct (thank you, Fernando Mendoza), but the exercise is less about precision and more about investigation. What do teams value in QB2s? What does development as a backup actually look like in the NFL? It isn’t a particularly dense quarterback class, so I have nine names for you. These are the quarterbacks I expect to be drafted and where I’d handpick them to be selected. And I even included one trade up the board to land one of them.

Jump to:
Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3

Height: 6-5 | Weight: 236 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB1
2025 stats: 72.0% completion rate, 3,535 yards, 41 TDs, six INTs (seven rushing TDs)

Mendoza will be the first pick for the Raiders, so there’s little use talking through the exact dominoes that got him there. But when it comes to fit, there is a question.

New Las Vegas coach Klint Kubiak heavily relies on under-center alignment in his offenses, as evidenced by Sam Darnold‘s 171 under-center dropbacks last season in Seattle. It’s not just the volume; it’s also the value: Darnold averaged 10.8 yards per attempt from under center, which was second to only Lamar Jackson.

Mendoza had two dropbacks from under center this past season with Indiana and three the previous year with Cal — it’s simply not something he has done in college. But I believe the issue is dramatically overblown. It’s 2026, and we’ve been discussing under-center dropbacks for more than a decade of NFL draft coverage. I remember sitting in my college dorm room and manufacturing concern when Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Mitchell Trubisky combined for three shared under-center dropbacks in the 2017 draft class.

NFL teams know how to work around this issue. The major worries about a quarterback suddenly running an offense from under center are twofold. First, will his footwork be clean and rapid enough to get to wide zone handoffs or land on seven-step dropbacks with appropriate timing? Second, how well will he read defenses when he needs to turn his back on play-action fakes? If it doesn’t come right away, there are pitches, pistol alignments and rollouts to skirt the issue in the short term.

Mendoza is a notoriously bright young quarterback who integrated himself wonderfully in the Indiana offense with just one offseason. He has excellent pocket footwork from the shotgun and often accelerated or shortened his dropback to work with the timing of Indiana’s RPO-heavy approach. When I look for guys who will quickly adapt to new alignments, this is exactly what I try to find.

There’s also a chance — and this is critical to examine — that none of this is real. It was a big deal that J.J. McCarthy had pro-style experience from under center at Michigan; it was going to smooth his onboarding process to the Kevin O’Connell offense. It was 54 total dropbacks, and it didn’t help much. And Caleb Williams‘ eight collegiate under-center dropbacks (and 84 NFL dropbacks in his rookie season) were supposed to limit him in Ben Johnson’s offense come 2025. It was a rocky September, yet by December, Williams was humming.

Different individuals struggle with different things, and I have no doubt that some Air Raid quarterbacks of the 2010s discovered a larger learning curve than expected when they finally got under center. But it’s an evidently solvable problem, and Mendoza is an evidently trustworthy prospect to make the transition well. At this point, so few college QBs generate a significant sample of under-center dropbacks. Wondering about Mendoza in Kubiak’s offense but feeling confident in Ty Simpson‘s 48 under-center dropbacks in, say, Sean McVay’s offense is making mountains out of molehills.

Mendoza isn’t as good of a prospect as some highly touted first overall picks, such as Williams or Trevor Lawrence. But he’s more than deserving of the top slot and more than capable of fitting into an elite offense coached by Kubiak.

---

Round 1, No. 31: Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with NE)

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 211 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB2
2025 stats: 64.5% completion rate, 3,567 yards, 28 TDs, five INTs (two rushing TDs)

When will Simpson go? I think he’s a Round 2 player, similar in grade to where I had Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart last year. Of course, Dart ended up going in Round 1 with a small trade up for the Giants so that they could secure the fifth-year option — a critical year of extra contract control for a big-money position. The same could and likely will happen with Simpson, especially in a thin QB class. To move from No. 34 to No. 31, it should take only a fourth-round pick or so, and the Patriots would be wise to target a 2027 pick (which they could then flip as part of a package for Eagles receiver A.J. Brown).

Simpson has an extremely likable game. He gets through his options briskly and with great footwork. He’s always loaded and ready to throw, which allows him to connect on deep-breaking routes with anticipation. Pressure can draw out the worst in Simpson, as he short-circuits into bad scrambles or big accuracy sprays. But he also has moments of fearless delivery into big hits and great throws off platform. In that he’s only a 15-game starter, it’s reasonable to believe he’ll round into a more reliable performer on pressured dropbacks as his career continues.

For a green quarterback, Simpson’s pre-snap recognition and command at the line of scrimmage is impressive. The son of a longtime Division I coach, he clearly has good film room habits, which will benefit him in the NFL even if he doesn’t start right away. With Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew rostered, the Cardinals wouldn’t feel rushed to play Simpson, which is always optimal.

Simpson does need some more development. He simply isn’t as accurate as you’d like for a quarterback who’s going to be a distributor from the pocket, and he’s already a little limited by his height in that regard. Landing in a Mike LaFleur offense is a snug fit, as the Cards’ new coach can crib much of what Kyle Shanahan has done for Brock Purdy to make the system work with a shorter quarterback in the pocket. But Purdy has wonderful creation ability on the move, and Simpson isn’t as dangerous a scooter.

But Simpson does show the blend of anticipation and decision-making to be the point guard in the modern iteration of the Shanahan/McVay scheme. The Cardinals’ pass catchers might not be ready to run it, as they need better secondary options to emerge behind Trey McBride and Michael Wilson (looking at you, Marvin Harrison Jr.). LaFleur, who struggled to get development from Zach Wilson when in New York, might not have all the answers for Simpson. But it’s easier than ever to get functional play out of rookie-contract quarterbacks in the league, and Simpson has more than enough talent to clear that bar.

Once the Cardinals have a rookie-contract starter, they can start the long process of spending their way into contention with the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers with whom they share their division. Taking the leap on Simpson is the first step.

---

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 203 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB3
2025 stats: 67.4% completion rate, 1,927 yards, 12 TDs, five INTs (one rushing TD)

The connection between the Steelers and Nussmeier is obvious. When Mike McCarthy was the head coach in Dallas, Nussmeier’s father, Doug, was his quarterbacks coach. Doug Nussmeier has stayed in the coaching tree, too, following Kellen Moore to the Chargers, then the Eagles and then the Saints. In that the Steelers need a developmental QB2 with more legs than 2025 sixth-rounder Will Howard, Garrett Nussmeier would be an option no matter what. The family connection only helps.

Nussmeier isn’t the biggest quarterback, which can be a concern for AFC North play in the uncovered Acrisure Stadium. He’s 6-foot-2 with 9⅛-inch hands. But over 1,804 career snaps at LSU, Nussmeier had only seven fumbles, which is a testament to his ball security. Nussmeier is a strong pocket navigator who can buy an extra half-second while setting up to throw, and he has a wily arm that layers the ball well in intermediate windows. He has a lot of polish on his game and should be called a pro-ready passer for his post-snap acumen.

But he’s also uber-aggressive. Nussmeier pushes the ball downfield on early downs when easy, reliable checkdowns are available and throws into traffic from unbalanced platforms late in the down. He has enough of an arm in general, but for such throws, he needs a spectacular arm in the NFL. This disposition is delightful on late downs, when high risks are worth the high rewards: 47.4% of Nussmeier’s third-down pass attempts in 2024 went for first downs, fifth in the country. But on early downs, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze on those low-percentage downfield tries. He’ll have to learn how to live for second-and-10 in the league.

To this end, Nussmeier would greatly benefit from some time behind Aaron Rodgers, should the veteran return as the starting quarterback for the Steelers. Rodgers is a remarkable risk manager who uses his elite pre-snap process and speedy decision-making to avoid turnover-worthy plays while still finding downfield opportunities. I’m confident that Nussmeier is a sharp quarterback — sharp enough to run McCarthy’s gun-heavy, dropback-heavy offense — but he needs some calibration in the risk management department. Rodgers, should he show any interest in developing a young quarterback behind him, would help there.

Nussmeier’s 2025 season was marred by a core injury that impacted his velocity, and it’s fair to throw much of that film out. His 2024 film looks like that of a Day 2 quarterback, and if he falls late into Round 3, it’ll be because of concerns around that injury at his size. A year sitting in Pittsburgh gives him a long runway to recovery and no expectations for immediate production, should he end up playing some in relief of Rodgers.

---

Height: 6-5 | Weight: 228 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB6
2025 stats: 64.8% completion rate, 1,100 yards, 8 TDs, three INTs (one rushing TD)

Allar is a tough nut to crack in this draft class. He has been named the toolsy developmental prospect of favor … but he isn’t even as toolsy as North Dakota State’s Cole Payton or Arkansas’ Taylen Green, who will likely go later. He has the traditional height, weight and arm talent of a dominant pocket passer, but the deterioration of his play from 2024 to 2025 puts a hiccup in his developmental projection. (Allar was limited to six games after a season-ending ankle injury last season.)

Despite a strong arm, Allar never really pushed the ball downfield in Penn State’s offense. In his three seasons as a starter, his most aggressive season (2024) saw an air yards per attempt of 8.2, below the nation’s average of 8.4. This is particularly worrisome because Allar enjoyed a low pressure rate (21% in 2025, second to only Carson Beck) and long time to throw. Yet he still didn’t find opportunities or success throwing downfield.

Allar can make anticipation throws into tight windows against the sideline or to the middle of the field, and that’s tough to teach. Winning with arm talent on rhythm throws from the pocket is how C.J. Stroud excelled for Bobby Slowik with the Texans in 2023 and 2024, and that’s how Allar will find success in the NFL. The Dolphins are invested in Malik Willis for 2026 and even into 2027, given his contract guarantees, but using an early-Day 3 pick on Allar would allow him to beat out Quinn Ewers for the QB2 job and challenge for QB1 reps in 2027 if Willis struggles.

The Dolphins have so many draft needs that they might pass on quarterback entirely. But they also have so many picks (three third-rounders) that taking the leap on a falling Allar wouldn’t impact their rebuild and could even accelerate it if he hits.

---

Height: 6-5 | Weight: 233 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB5
2025 stats: 72.4% completion rate, 3,813 yards, 30 TDs, 12 INTs (two rushing TDs)

The QB2 job is up for grabs in Dallas, with incoming Sam Howell battling incumbent Joe Milton III for the right to back up Dak Prescott. This is not a particularly thrilling QB2 battle. Milton is an inexperienced developmental QB who excites with his highlights but cannot be trusted for reliable play. Howell is a one-time starter who was traded twice last season as the Vikings and Eagles tried him out as a backup before moving on.

Dallas doesn’t need to add a third body to that battle. But with three picks in the fifth round and an otherwise deep roster, why wouldn’t the Cowboys take a chance on a QB should one fall into their lap?

Beck was considered a potential Day 1 riser over the course of his college career, but his time in the College Football Playoff with both Georgia and Miami has made his limitations clear. His accuracy and his arm talent are both only average, so he needs to be an impeccable decision-maker in order to thrive. But coverage rotations and pressure both bait him into poor choices, and it’s unlikely those habits will go away in the NFL for a player with so much experience already.

When kept clean, Beck plays well within himself. He throws with anticipation and decisiveness, and he can flash high-caliber precision to pull receivers away from coverage when working between the numbers. Beck is very much a rhythm/confidence thrower who lets his mistakes compound, but he can also get into a pocket and throw with NFL timing and zip. This is a trait he shares with Prescott, who looks like the league’s best quarterback when he’s hot in the pocket.

Some insiders report that Beck will go earlier than this, as he trades on a high recruiting status and plenty of postseason football under his belt. I remain dubious, as it’s tough to find a cardinal trait for Beck to hang his hat on as a starting NFL quarterback. But Beck has maturity and big-game experience, and the Cowboys’ past couple of forays into QB2 development have been heavily indexed on traits (Milton, Trey Lance) — it’s time to zag back to the Cooper Rush side of the aisle.

---

Height: 6-6 | Weight: 227 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB4
2025 stats: 60.7% completion rate, 2,714 yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs (eight rushing TDs)

Figuring out the range for Green is very tricky. He was a historically athletic quarterback at the combine, with a 4.36-second 40-yard dash, a 43½-inch vertical jump and an 11-foot-2 broad jump. It’s easy to draw comparisons to quarterbacks such as Anthony Richardson Sr. and Cam Newton, but they’re easily recalled because both also had the film to go in Round 1. Green doesn’t.

His throwing mechanics are extremely rough, making him more reminiscent of Colin Kaepernick than Richardson or Newton. Green’s accuracy is predictably scattershot, and his inconsistency hitting layups makes it tough to build a reliable passing game around him. As such, any offense fielding Green would need to rely heavily on the QB running game; he should see 10-plus carries in any game he plays, a league-leading rate.

Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have hugely prioritized athleticism at the QB2 spot. The outgoing Malik Willis is one of the league’s best dual-threat quarterbacks, but even QB3 Clayton Tune was one of the best testers at his position. Behind Jordan Love are Desmond Ridder (another great tester) and Kyle McCord, so the QB2 job is wide open.

Green might go two rounds earlier as a true developmental starter (think Jalen Milroe, whom the Seahawks took at No. 92 last year). But my guess is he ends up being a longer dart throw who goes in the middle of Day 3, and the Packers are the sort of team that likes to take those chances.

---

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 232 | Scouts Inc. ranking: QB7
2025 stats: 72.0% completion rate, 2,719 yards, 16 TDs, four INTs (13 rushing TDs)

I am doubtful that the Jets will make an early investment at quarterback in this draft. Perhaps they really love one of the non-Mendoza quarterbacks and want to take the swing on Simpson, Nussmeier or Beck. Given the patience general manager Darren Mougey has exhibited so far at the helm, I think a starting job for Geno Smith and an exploratory, late-round stab at a developmental QB make far more sense.

Another read I have on the Jets: Coach Aaron Glenn likes quarterback mobility. His defenses have historically struggled with mobile QBs — defensive coaches gravitate on offense toward what gives them trouble on defense — and he was quick to advocate for Justin Fields as the first stopgap option in New York. Payton was a Taysom Hill-like playmaker for North Dakota State over his college career, rushing 84 times for 13 touchdowns in 2023 in sub packages behind starter Cam Miller.

I really like Payton as a Day 3 option accordingly. He provides short-yardage value as an option quarterback, with a bulky frame and great tackle-breaking ability. Most QB runners are long striders who avoid contact, but Payton can actually run through it like a goal-line back. As a one-year starter, the lefty showed a good willingness to test intermediate and downfield windows. Payton has a huge dip in his throwing motion, and retooling his release into a quicker motion would help make up for average ball velocity. He isn’t ready for a full dropback menu right now, but there’s a legit ceiling here for a guy who has flashed pro-style throws in limited opportunities.

Payton is unlikely to see enough game action (or produce enough if he does) to deter the Jets from investing early in a 2027 draft class QB1. If he does hit, he has a high dual-threat ceiling profile in the mold of Jalen Hurts. Of all the gambles a team could take on Day 3, Payton is my favorite.