Predicting the entire postseason — with a surprise champion

Here is a truism about sports fans: Everyone loves brackets.

So why should college basketball get all the fun? With the NBA postseason set to begin this week, let’s take a page out of the March Madness playbook and fill out an NBA playoff bracket.

First, we’ll use ESPN’s Basketball Power Index to fill in the four teams projected to advance out of the play-in tournament:

Then, we’ll predict the rest of the playoff outcomes, whittling 16 teams down to one raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.

East first round

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Charlotte Hornets (8)

Despite the gap in seeds, these teams have a similar profile. Since Jan. 1, Charlotte ranks second in the league in net rating, while Detroit is third. The Hornets boast an elite offense, and the Pistons have a strong defense. Both teams are led by a host of players who were lottery picks, plus one key contributor who was previously on a two-way deal (Daniss Jenkins for Detroit, Moussa Diabate for Charlotte).

The two teams also engaged in a brawl in February, leading to suspensions for Diabate, Miles Bridges, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart.

Those ingredients set the stage for a much more compelling 1 vs. 8 series than usual. But ultimately, the Pistons should advance because their superior size makes them a bad matchup for the scorching Hornets. Detroit was 3-0 against Charlotte in the regular season and outscored the Hornets 188-96 in the paint during those games.

The pick: Pistons in 6

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Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

Don’t pay much attention to the season series, which was tied 2-2: These teams have played just once since Nov. 11, and Jayson Tatum didn’t play in any matchup against Philadelphia this season.

The 76ers would be an intriguing upset pick if Joel Embiid were definitely available because he would present an imposing challenge for Boston’s untested front line.

But with the 76ers’ MVP center potentially sidelined because of an emergency appendectomy, at the same time that Boston’s rotation is fully healthy, there’s no reason to expect Philadelphia to challenge the most complete team in the conference.

The pick: Celtics in 5

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New York Knicks (3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (6)

New York and Atlanta staged an entertaining playoff preview last week, when both teams shortened their rotations in a 108-105 Knicks win. The margin between the two teams was incredibly close, as Hawks guard CJ McCollum‘s would-be tying half-court heave came a fraction of a second too late.

That game demonstrated that Atlanta has a real chance for an upset in this series. The Hawks have a strong starting five and have been hot for months, and Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will make a spectacle out of trying to slow down Jalen Brunson. But the Knicks’ superior depth, particularly in the frontcourt, will be the difference: X factor Mitchell Robinson averaged 10.5 rebounds (four offensive) and 2.0 blocks in 19.0 minutes per game against Atlanta this season.

The pick: Knicks in 7

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Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Toronto Raptors (5)

Cleveland has more talent than Toronto, but Toronto swept the season series 3-0; the Celtics are the only other Eastern Conference team that did so against the Cavaliers this season.

But don’t read too much into those regular-season results: All three games took place before Thanksgiving, meaning James Harden wasn’t on the Cavaliers’ roster yet, and Larry Nance Jr., De’Andre Hunter (twice) and Lonzo Ball (twice) started in those games for the Cavs due to various injuries. Cleveland also made an unsustainably low 28% of its 3-point attempts against Toronto, compared with 36% over the full season. And Toronto, which ranked 26th in made 3s this season, isn’t well-suited to take advantage of Cleveland’s weakness defending the arc.

All of those factors suggest that the Raptors won’t carry their regular-season success into the postseason, and the Cavaliers should advance with relative ease.

The pick: Cavaliers in 5

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East semifinals

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)

Even though the Pistons are the higher seed, winning eight more regular-season games than the Cavaliers, Cleveland would likely be the favorite in this series: According to DraftKings, the Cavaliers have the second-best odds to reach the Finals in the East, while the Pistons rank fourth.

But I think that consensus view is wrong. First, there’s a much wider gap between Detroit’s rock-solid defense (No. 2 in the league) and Cleveland’s shaky unit (No. 15) than between the two offenses (No. 6 for Cleveland, No. 9 for Detroit).

Second, Cleveland’s late-season surge is something of a mirage. The Cavaliers are 21-9 since Feb. 7, when Harden played his first game for the team, but several of those wins were uncomfortably close games against Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, Utah and Indiana. The Cavaliers have a plus-4.8 net rating over that stretch, while the Pistons are plus-9.0 in the same span.

And one subset of that stretch convinced me of the Pistons’ playoff readiness: Detroit went 9-3 during Cade Cunningham‘s absence because of a collapsed lung, with two of the losses coming in overtime. The top-seeded Pistons pull an ostensible upset — at least according to Vegas — and reach the conference finals.

The pick: Pistons in 7

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Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)

The Knicks aren’t afraid of the Celtics after winning the season series 3-1 and eliminating them in a second-round upset last spring.

But Boston’s consistency, contrasted with New York’s seasonlong seesawing, makes it a much safer pick. In some respects, the Celtics were very unlucky to lose in the second round last year; they had a much better shot quality throughout the series, per GeniusIQ, and lost Tatum to an Achilles tear midway through. They’ll get their revenge this season, winning the final game at Madison Square Garden, where Tatum suffered his injury a year ago.

The pick: Celtics in 6

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East finals

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Boston Celtics (2)

This conference finals matchup would have seemed improbable in the preseason, when the Pistons appeared to be a rising but still nascent contender and the Celtics looked poised for a “gap year” without Tatum.

But now it’s a compelling clash between the NBA’s second-best offense and second-best defense, and the likely top two finishers for the Coach of the Year award.

To determine which team will reach the Finals, the gap between the two teams’ wings could be decisive. Tatum (who didn’t play against Detroit this season), Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are two-way stars, while Ausar Thompson and Duncan Robinson are one-way specialists. Advantage: Boston.

The pick: Celtics in 6

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West first round

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (8)

The Thunder’s only loss during their 24-1 start was against Portland, but it came on the second night of a road back-to-back set, and Oklahoma City led that game by 22 points before letting up down the stretch. In the other three meetings, Oklahoma City won by eight, 27 and 29 points, even though Deni Avdija played in every game.

In a playoff setting, the Thunder should continue to coast. Both teams have fearsome perimeter defenders, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superior top option to Avdija, and the Thunder have many more secondary playmakers behind their leading scorer.

The pick: Thunder in 4

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San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Phoenix Suns (7)

On the surface, this seems like it could be a competitive series, as Phoenix beat San Antonio twice in November (though Victor Wembanyama missed one of those contests) and lost by just one point in a meeting last month.

But San Antonio’s recent form suggests the No. 2 seed has ascended to another level, so this series should be over quickly. The Spurs’ only losses since the end of January are to the Nuggets (three times) and Knicks, who both landed No. 3 seeds; they haven’t lost to a non-elite opponent in months.

The pick: Spurs in 4

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Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6)

Once upon a time, Minnesota had Denver’s number, going 8-3 against the Nuggets between the 2024 postseason and 2024-25 campaign. But the Nuggets handled the Timberwolves better this season, winning three of four meetings, and their only loss came with Aaron Gordon out.

The Nuggets enter the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak, while Minnesota stumbled to the finish line. And Denver has the advantage in this series because Gordon is healthy and the Timberwolves’ multi-big defensive strategy against Nikola Jokic has lost its effectiveness. Jokic averaged 36 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists and 65% shooting against Minnesota this season.

The pick: Nuggets in 5

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Los Angeles Lakers (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

Even with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams injured, this series has its share of star power, with one especially compelling storyline: For the first time, after three Finals clashes, LeBron James and Kevin Durant will meet in a non-Finals playoff series. Remarkably, both players are now their teams’ No. 1 options, despite a combined age of 78.

Despite their injuries, the Lakers have a legitimate chance in this series. Lineups with James playing without Doncic and Reaves this season had a plus-9.0 net rating, per databallr, and James in lineups with shooters have been successful across his storied career. But I suspect that after a surprisingly competitive start to the series, Houston will adjust and gain the upper hand; the Rockets’ talent advantage is too great for even James to overcome.

The pick: Rockets in 6

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West semifinals

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

After the Thunder needed two overtimes to beat the Rockets on opening night, Houston looked like a contender to knock off the reigning champs. But a 20-point beatdown in January tempered that optimism. (Houston’s lone victory against Oklahoma City came with Gilgeous-Alexander out.)

Turnovers will ruin the Rockets’ chances of keeping pace in this series: Oklahoma City ranked first in turnover rate on offense and second on defense, per Cleaning the Glass, while Houston ranked 27th on offense and 21st on defense.

The pick: Thunder in 5

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San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Denver Nuggets (3)

Expect a lot of points in this series: In the first three games between these teams (many regulars didn’t suit up in the fourth, on the last day of the regular season), the final scores were 139-136, 136-131 and 136-134 (in overtime), with Denver winning two of them.

Notably, Wembanyama appeared in only one of the teams’ meetings this season: the Nuggets’ 136-134 win in early April, arguably the best game of the season. And Jokic has dominated Wembanyama in seven career meetings, going for 37.3 points per game.

But in what promises to be a scintillating back-and-forth series, I give the Spurs the slightest edge for two reasons. The first is home-court advantage, as San Antonio went 32-8 at home this season; only the Thunder (34-7) were better.

The second is that, even acknowledging Jokic’s historical mastery of Wembanyama, with Gordon’s constant injury risk and Peyton Watson‘s availability in doubt, I have more faith that San Antonio will figure out ways to keep Denver out of the 130s than vice versa. The Spurs ranked third in defensive rating this season, while the Nuggets ranked 21st.

San Antonio advances in a thriller, while Denver loses in seven games in the conference semifinals for the third straight year.

The pick: Spurs in 7

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West finals

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)

I haven’t been this excited for a potential playoff series this decade. Oklahoma City and San Antonio could spark a decade-long rivalry this spring, after the Spurs beat the reigning champs in four out of five meetings this season.

Oklahoma City has crucial playoff experience and the best clutch scorer in the NBA on its side. But San Antonio presents real matchup problems for the champs because of its athleticism, guard play and game-changing force at center.

For the Thunder, the most frightening feature of their regular-season meetings against the Spurs was Wembanyama’s game-by-game plus-minus rating:

• Plus-21 in 21 minutes
• Plus-13 in 23 minutes
• Plus-13 in 26 minutes
• Minus-14 in 28 minutes
• Plus-17 in 28 minutes

The Spurs were plus-50 in five games with Wembanyama on the court, or plus-10 per game — even though he averaged just 25 minutes per contest.

For comparison, Gilgeous-Alexander played in four games against San Antonio, and the Thunder were minus-1 overall in his 35.5 minutes per game.

It’s possible that Wembanyama can’t handle many more minutes because of his aggressive style of play. He looked noticeably fatigued when he reached 40 minutes in San Antonio’s thrilling overtime loss in Denver this month.

But Wembanyama doesn’t need to play 40 minutes at altitude every game in the playoffs, and he successfully exceeded 35 minutes 10 times this season. In those games, he averaged 30.7 points, 14.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 4.0 blocks while making 44% of his 7.3 3-point attempts and 86% of his 9.6 free throw attempts. That’s not evidence of a consistent problem playing big minutes; if anything, it’s the opposite, and Wembanyama’s stats have been even better when he has increased his workload.

And if the Spurs could batter Oklahoma City with Wembanyama playing 25 minutes, then imagine what they could do when he receives another quarter’s worth of playing time each game.

The pick: Spurs in 6

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NBA Finals

Boston Celtics (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)

The Celtics and Spurs have never faced off in the Finals, and both franchises have remarkable success in this climactic round: Boston is 18-5 in the Finals, while San Antonio is 5-1. Something has to give in this unexpected showdown.

The Spurs won both meetings this season, including one in which almost every key player on both teams was healthy. (Payton Pritchard was absent for Boston.) San Antonio relied on a massive free throw advantage, which should persist in these Finals, as the Celtics ranked 30th in offensive free throw rate this season, and the Spurs ranked first in defensive free throw rate.

Crucially, the Spurs won both games despite shooting just 33% from distance, which could be a crucial point for this series. The Celtics allowed the highest opponent 3-point attempt rate this season, as Joe Mazzulla packed the paint on defense, and they’d surely attempt that strategy against the Spurs, whose greatest weakness might be their questionable shooters from deep.

But the Spurs’ 3-point shooting has perked up of late. Through Feb. 4, they ranked 19th in 3-point makes (12.9 per game) and 24th in accuracy (34.6%), but since then, they’re eighth in 3-point makes (14.7 per game) and third in accuracy (37.9%). Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are both above 40% in that latter span.

I predict the Spurs will make enough open 3s to exploit Boston’s defensive game plan and complete a storybook journey, from out of the playoffs to raising the trophy in a year. Wembanyama joins fellow Spurs Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard as Finals MVPs in their age-22 seasons. And the NBA’s Wemby Era officially begins.

The pick: Spurs in 6