Pakistan’s Inflation Hits 21-Month High, Defying Finance Ministry Projections

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s inflation has surged to a 21-month high, significantly overshooting the Finance Ministry’s own estimates, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics — dealing a fresh blow to the government’s economic narrative and raising serious questions about the accuracy of official projections.
The bureau’s report reveals that transport fares have skyrocketed by as much as 30 percent on a year-on-year basis, placing an acute burden on millions of ordinary Pakistanis who depend on public and private transport for their daily commute and livelihoods. The sharp rise in transportation costs has had a cascading effect across the broader economy, pushing up the prices of goods, services, and food items that rely on supply chains dependent on road transport.
The divergence between the Finance Ministry’s forecasts and the actual inflation figures has drawn sharp criticism from economic analysts, who argue that the gap reflects either flawed modelling or an overly optimistic assessment of ground realities. The discrepancy undermines public confidence in the government’s economic management at a time when Pakistani households are already grappling with elevated costs of electricity, gas, and essential food commodities.
Opposition parties have seized on the data, calling it definitive proof of the government’s economic mismanagement and demanding immediate relief measures including targeted subsidies for low-income groups and a review of fuel and utility pricing policies.
The latest inflation reading is likely to complicate Pakistan’s ongoing engagement with the International Monetary Fund, as persistently high price pressures may force a reassessment of monetary policy settings and fiscal targets agreed under the current bailout programme.