Han vs. Holm rematch: Picks, predictions and fight…

Stephanie Han defeated Holly Holm in January by seventh-round technical decision, an ending that left Holm wondering what might have been. “Nobody wants the fight to end like that. I don’t,” Holm said during her postfight interview in the ring, referring to the accidental clash of heads that led to the fight being halted.

On Saturday at the County Coliseum in El Paso, Texas (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET), Holm will get another shot at WBA lightweight champion Han — another opportunity to claim a world title for the first time in 13 years.

Holm, who was inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame in 2022, stepped away from boxing in 2013 to pursue a career in MMA. She returned to the ring last June with a unanimous decision victory over Yolanda Vega before facing Han.

Han was ahead on all three scorecards (69-65, 68-65 and 69-64) in the first fight with Holm, controlling much of the fight with her high punch output and an effective jab that kept Holm at range. Holm said afterward that she was “waiting for those later rounds to kind of take over,” but that strategy disappeared when the bout was stopped after an accidental clash of heads opened a cut on Han’s forehead.

Can Holm make the necessary adjustments in the rematch, lean on her experience and be more aggressive earlier? Or will Han once again dictate the action with her jab and straight punches?

ESPN asked three former champions and a current titleholder to break down the fight and make their picks.

Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

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Christy Martin, former junior middleweight champion and member of the International Boxing Hall of Fame

How does Han win?

Han just has to do what she does by staying busy and keeping the pressure on Holm. Holm is an older fighter, and as we get older, we don’t want to fight every minute of every round. Han’s pressure doesn’t have to just be from punching. It can be from crowding Holm, cutting off the ring, making her uncomfortable and not giving her time to relax or breathe. As long as Han can keep the pressure on Holm, she has a strong chance to retain her title.

How does Holm win?

I think Father Time has caught up to Holm. Her strength was in her movement. When I fought her in 2005, she moved a lot and I just couldn’t catch her. That strength translated into her MMA career when she knocked out Ronda Rousey in 2015. To beat Han, she has to find that movement again. She has to stay on her toes, land combinations and get back on the bike. But Han is going to keep the pressure on her, and Holm’s slowed down a bit. I do think that Holm was starting to knock the rust off as the fight was going the first time she fought Han. I think the fight was about to change before it was stopped, so we didn’t get to see what adjustments Holm was making.

X-factor

The crowd. Holm spent most of her career in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where she was always the favorite and would get the breaks on the judges’ scorecards, El Paso is Han’s hometown. Judges are human and can be swayed by the crowd when the rounds are close. Holm also has to stay focused and not be swayed by the crowd. Holm can land 10 medium punches, but if Han lands one big shot, it’ll be up to the judges to figure out what they prefer. The other X-factor is Father Time, and he doesn’t lose.

Prediction: Han by controversial decision.

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Ginny Fuchs, WBC interim junior bantamweight champion

The matchup

Han won the first fight because her timing was better and she was catching Holm coming in a lot. The first round, it was kind of like Holm taking more of the action and pushing Han back. But then I don’t know what happened. It’s like she was waiting on Han and trying to figure out, because she would use her feints a lot, but nothing was coming from the feints. She should have feinted and then attacked right away, but she would just feint and then stand there, feint again and then stand there, then throw a combination. She wasn’t really getting in rhythm. She was letting Han control the rhythm and control the fight more and having more of those opportunities to throw those combinations and take the best of Holm.

How does Han win?

If she just keeps the timing of her quickness and her combinations, and catches Holm coming in, because Holm’s kind of straight up, then it could go Han’s way. She needs to keep that rhythm that she was having in their first fight. She can’t let Holm get in her rhythm of jabbing and throwing combinations, then stepping around to her right. In the first fight, Holm would do that and Han would miss and sometimes get caught. If Han doesn’t let that happen and is more aggressive as well with her combinations and coming forward and stopping Holm before she starts to throw her combinations, then, yeah, Han can definitely win. She should just be a little more aggressive.

How does Holm win?

Holm will need to adjust and use her jab more, move to her right more and be a little busier. If she keeps that pace and that rhythm, I think Holm would be hard for Han to beat. If the cut didn’t happen in the first fight, maybe Holm would’ve made that adjustment a little sooner and things would’ve changed. We don’t know. If Holm keeps on using her jab a lot, moving to her right, keeping her own rhythm and throwing combinations off of her jab, I think then Holm could win the fight. We’ll see who learned from the first fight and makes adjustments.

Prediction: It could go either way, but I think the fight goes to a decision and Han takes the win again.

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Cecilia Comunales, former lightweight champion

The matchup

Han was clearly winning the first fight before it was stopped. She was cleaner technically, constantly working off the counter and being more effective in the exchanges and at managing distance in the ring. Holm looked out of position at times, especially when coming in very straight with her power [right] hand, which I think is what caused the head clashes on several occasions. That also left Holm out of range during exchanges. I’m not usually a fan of three-minute rounds for women, but they put on a super technical and strategic fight while maintaining a constant pace throughout — something that hasn’t happened in other women’s fights with three-minute rounds.

How does Han win?

Han should do the same thing she did in the first fight, stay on the same strategy but use more of the jab and the left hook/cross, which she landed several times very effectively. She connected well with the straight right, but it carried a lot of risk of head clashes, which is ultimately what happened.

How does Holm win?

Holm needs to tighten things up, especially offensively — stay more compact and improve her distance management, especially when entering mid-range. She’s still adjusting back to boxing — January’s fight with Han was only her second boxing match after so many years away. Even so, her physical condition and speed at 44 years old are admirable — she looks like a fighter 10 years younger. She’s in incredible shape, but she needs to refine her positioning and attack more cleanly, including not dropping her left hand so much during exchanges. Holm is the one who needs to make more adjustments to win.

Prediction: Han by decision if she follows the same game plan from the first fight and makes those small adjustments — more jab and left hook/cross — to create more separation while protecting herself from headbutts when Holm tries to get inside.

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Chris Namus, former junior middleweight champion and current ‘ESPN KnockOut’ boxing analyst

The matchup

I’d say Han’s key to victory in the first fight was her speed. Obviously, age is a factor here too — we know that as the years go by, there’s just no fighting that. Holm is 44 and Han is 35, and you could really see that in the speed difference, even though Holm is always super-trained for every fight she faces. But Han’s incredible speed and especially the straight punches inside were key. Holm still has a tendency to throw from the outside, those wide cross punches from her MMA days. And Han, with her accuracy, took advantage of having shorter arms and less reach, so punches land more quickly. The strategy that Han used throughout the fight — throwing the hook from the outside, both left and right, and going for the jabs, especially the right jab — worked perfectly for her. She connected countless times on Holm’s face. That little step back to then counterpunch was key for Han. She was waiting for it, waiting for it, and made Holm a little impatient.

How does Han win?

Han’s going to have to bring her A-game, just like she did in the first fight, because Holm is the most experienced opponent she has ever faced. What Han did in the ring was spectacular — it was truly her best performance. I think she’ll have to do it again; she can’t afford to make mistakes, and she’ll have to know how to adapt to the changes Holm brings.

Han’s game plan in the first fight was perfect. In fact, even though I thought she lost the second round to Holm, it was because she took a little time to read and figure out Holm. She should stick to that approach, because Holm will undoubtedly come with a different strategy since she didn’t do well in the first fight. Han is going to have to analyze early — ideally just the first round because she can’t afford to give Holm any more than that. They’re going back to three-minute rounds, so Han will have enough time to figure out what Holm’s bringing differently to this fight and adapt based on that. Han has the tools — especially speed. That’s key; it’s really hard to counter her speed.

How does Holm win?

First and foremost, she should draw on all her experience from having analyzed the first fight and, based on that, realize that most of the shots that landed on her were counterpunches — so she needs to be a little more patient. There’s also the fact that she’s the challenger and Han the champion. Han could stand her ground and wait, forcing Holm to be the one seeking out the fight. That’s where things get a little complicated for Holm. I’d go with the feinting strategy to force Han to initiate the attack. Holm should throw longer combinations because when she did in the first fight, she connected. When she threw just one or two punches, she fell short. It seems to me that by throwing combinations of three or four punches, she was able to land them effectively.

Holm, at 44, doesn’t have the speed, the footwork and all that anymore — she’s not as agile. She should focus more on her punching power. I know that in these few months between fights it’s very difficult to improve that aspect in the gym — whether it’s speed or punching power — but maybe she could be a little more grounded, set her feet and focus on her power. At the end of the second round, she landed a really good punch that knocked Han off balance because she was caught in a bad position. Focusing a bit more on her punching power by staying more grounded and throwing longer combinations could be what gives Holm the edge, along with staying calm, not making mistakes and watching out for straight hands.

Prediction: Based on cold, hard logic and what’s already happened, I’d bet it’ll be a unanimous decision for Han. If Holm ends up winning, it won’t be by decision, it’ll be by landing a punch while she’s planted. Neither of them is a power puncher, so that’s a long shot. But maybe if Holm manages to catch Han at just the right moment while she’s planted firmly, Holm could get a knockout. That’s the only way I think she could take the victory. But to me, that option is practically nonexistent, so it’s a unanimous decision for Han.