Everything that will decide Knicks-Spurs

The 2026 NBA postseason began with 20 teams on April 14, and now we’re down to two.

The San Antonio Spurs ended the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s hopes of becoming the first team since the Kevin Durant-led Golden State Warriors of 2017 and 2018 to win back-to-back titles, returning to the Finals for the first time since raising their fifth banner in 2014.

In their way are the red-hot New York Knicks, who stormed through the Eastern Conference, winning 11 consecutive games by an average of 23.8 points to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999 — when their title hopes were dashed by Tim Duncan and the Spurs.

Will Victor Wembanyama cement his early rise to NBA dominance, or will Jalen Brunson captain the Knicks’ first NBA title in 53 years?

Our experts have everything you need to know about this epic Finals matchup. (Catch all the action on ABC and the ESPN App.)

Note: Series odds provided by DraftKings.

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What three meetings revealed
How Spurs win | How Knicks win
Matchup to watch | Stat to know
Summer stakes: SA | NY | Best bet

The stakes — and significance — for both teams

Whichever team manages to emerge from this Spurs-Knicks series victorious will etch themselves into NBA history in different, but massively significant, ways.

Despite possessing a roster devoid of virtually any playoff experience before this season — and literally none for the team’s troika of young stars Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper — the Spurs dispatched the NBA’s two-time reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Thunder across seven hard-fought games.

This very well could be the “Thanos moment” for Wembanyama, whose 41-point, 24-rebound performance in Game 1 against OKC elicited flashbacks of LeBron James‘ “48 special” against the Detroit Pistons in the 2007 Eastern Conference finals. The other obvious comparison for this Spurs team is the 1995 Orlando Magic — another group led by a young, dominant center in Shaquille O’Neal, a rising young star guard in Anfernee Hardaway and that had no previous playoff success together.

San Antonio, of course, will hope the comparisons end there, as those ’95 Magic and ’07 Cavaliers were swept in the NBA Finals. If the Spurs can win four more games, though, the Wembanyama Era will have arrived before the end of his rookie contract – an unprecedented moment in NBA history.

And then, on the other side, there’s the Knicks, the team with the NBA’s most tortured fan base. For more than a half-century, Knicks fans have been waiting for a team to recapture the magic of those legendary Knicks teams of the early 1970s, led by Walt Frazier and Willis Reed. The Patrick Ewing-led Knicks of the 1990s came close, making the Finals twice, but ultimately came up short both times.

Now, led by Brunson — who has already placed himself on the Mount Rushmore of all-time great Knicks alongside those three stars listed above — New York comes roaring into the Finals having ripped off 11 straight victories with a point differential of plus-262. That is only the greatest 11-game stretch any team has played in the 80 years the NBA has existed, covering both regular and postseason play.

If these Knicks can rip off four more victories, they will become legendary figures in New York City, and the parade through Manhattan’s Canyon of Heroes will truly be a once-in-a-lifetime event.

A generational talent on one side, hoping to ascend to the throne of the sport — potentially for the next decade or more. A possible team of destiny on the other, with more than 50 years of hopes and dreams at their back propelling them toward what would be a fairytale ending.

This should be a fantastic series to watch. And as for whichever side is fortunate enough to come out on top? History beckons. — Tim Bontemps

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When San Antonio faced New York this season

Dec. 16: Knicks 124, Spurs 113
Dec. 31: Spurs 134, Knicks 132
March 1: Knicks 114, Spurs 89

After Feb. 1, the Spurs lost just two games in which Wembanyama played in the regular season. One was an overtime classic in Denver at the end of it. The other was a Sunday afternoon beatdown at Madison Square Garden.

The Knicks defense was suffocating, forcing 21 turnovers and allowing the Spurs to shoot just 41%. Mikal Bridges led the Knicks with 25 points, five steals and five rebounds. It was a glimpse of what the Knicks could do defensively when locked in and continued a level of mastery over Wembanyama, who they slowed in December’s NBA Cup title game in Las Vegas. — Vincent Goodwill

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How the Spurs will beat the Knicks

It all starts and ends with Wembanyama. Although the series begins in San Antonio, it’s worth pointing out just how much he loves to perform under the bright lights in the celebrity-laden atmosphere at Madison Square Garden.

Counting the NBA Cup final, San Antonio faced New York on three occasions during the regular season, with the Knicks taking two of those games. Wembanyama averaged 24.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in those matchups.

San Antonio’s lack of success against New York in the regular season stems from the Knicks presenting major matchup issues for the Spurs. The Knicks’ wing defenders swallow up San Antonio’s shooters, and the Spurs will have to deal with physicality even more jaw rattling than what they navigated against Oklahoma City.

New York’s depth in the frontcourt will also prove problematic for the Spurs with three big-time performers in Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson, who is expected to play despite a broken right pinkie, patrolling the paint. The Spurs will need Wembanyama to be the best player on the floor for four games in this series for the inexperienced Spurs to have a shot. — Michael C. Wright

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How the Knicks will beat the Spurs

New York must bottle up what helped it steamroll through the East bracket. It hasn’t been just the Brunson show, although he gets a lion’s share of credit. Every starter has had his moment in these playoffs.

Bridges, whose game has awakened after calls for his benching in the first three games of the first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks, is shooting nearly 60% from the field. The unsung Anunoby is scoring nearly 20 points per game on elite efficiency. And when Towns stays out of foul trouble, his ability to stretch the floor and be a secondary facilitator could help keep Wembanyama out of the paint.

Have the Knicks, who will enter next week’s Finals with nine days rest, been tested enough throughout this run? Closer games will be the expectation, but that’s where Brunson comes in. There’s no easy individual matchup for him to hunt late in games — he will have to be fresh and excellent in the clutch to help the Knicks capture their first ring since 1973. — Goodwill

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One matchup to watch

Stephon Castle vs. Brunson

In theory, Castle’s physicality matches well against Brunson’s repertoire. The young Spurs guard is coming off a series in which he defended two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander about as well as possible; SGA shot just 39% in the conference finals, the worst mark in any playoff series in his career. Brunson, however, averaged 26 points in three meetings against the Spurs this season, as New York’s offense hummed. — Zach Kram

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Stat that will define the series: 123.3

The Knicks just finished smoking the Eastern Conference competition, posting a 123.3 offensive rating on their way to the NBA Finals. Remarkably, their offensive efficiency was the highest intraconference mark posted by an East champion since the league’s current playoff format was instituted in 2003, supplanting LeBron James‘ 2017 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Get this: The Knicks also posted a blistering 123.0 offensive rating in their two regular-season games against San Antonio, and they torched the Spurs in the NBA Cup championship (which doesn’t officially count in the standings).

While the Spurs ranked third in defensive efficiency during the regular season, they conceded more points per possession to the Knicks than any of their opponents.

This Finals will be decided by San Antonio’s ability — or inability — to slow the New York juggernaut. The Knicks enter the Finals on an 11-game playoff winning streak and with full confidence they can execute against Wembanyama, the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year. — Ben Golliver

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Scout’s take on Spurs-Knicks

Minutes after the Spurs’ Game 7 victory in Oklahoma City, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps spoke with a veteran NBA scout on the keys to the Finals:

“I think I still give the Spurs the advantage, but there’s a nagging thing from the end of this game: With all the emotion, it immediately hit me that they may have a hangover coming out of this series. The Knicks have the problem of being off for a long time, so you can say that’s its own issue, but it just seems San Antonio put so much into this series … have they already slayed their dragon? Is there any chance the Knicks take advantage early in the series?

“You have two perimeter-oriented bigs. I think that helps Towns more. Towns is not a guy who is going to worry about getting his shot blocked when he’s taking 3s. I don’t hate that matchup. The Knicks are normally trying to figure out who to match Towns up on. … And you saw how Shai was impacted when he would get to the rim and look to pass, where he’s trying to score against 28 other teams. The way the Knicks play, not sure Victor’s presence is going to have as much of an impact against them as it did Oklahoma City.

“The Knicks have more of a chance than I thought they did a few weeks ago, but I’m still picking San Antonio in this series.”

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San Antonio’s offseason outlook

A Finals win could mark the start of a potential Spurs dynasty, headed by Wembanyama. Not only will he be on the roster for the foreseeable future — it is more than likely he will extend his contract this summer — but San Antonio will return the same starting lineup (De’Aaron Fox, Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie) from this season. The Spurs also have reserves Dylan Harper, Carter Bryant, Luke Kornet and Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson under contract next season.

As a result of their young foundation, financial flexibility and future draft capital, San Antonio’s roster is sustainable. The Spurs have four picks in June’s draft — two in the top 35 — and a combined 21 first- and second-rounders from 2026 to 2033. More importantly, the Spurs have the right to swap first-round picks in three different drafts, including with the Atlanta Hawks next year. — Bobby Marks

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New York’s offseason outlook

It’s easy to say the Knicks will be the favorite to repeat as East champs — especially with their entire starting five under contract next season — but the cost to keep this roster together could be expensive.

Once a glaring weakness under former coach Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks’ bench is now a strength. But seven of their reserves, including Jose Alvarado (player option), Landry Shamet, Mitchell Robinson and Jordan Clarkson, are free agents this summer, and New York has little flexibility to replace them if they sign elsewhere. Meanwhile, Miles McBride is eligible to sign an extension heading into the final year of his contract.

Despite being close to the second apron, the Knicks can exceed the threshold to re-sign Shamet, Alvarado and Robinson. — Marks

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Brunson to win Finals MVP (+270)

The Knicks just keep winning. If they beat the Spurs, there will be no one more valuable than Brunson, who has averaged 26.9 points and 6.6 assists in 36.1 minutes during the playoffs.

New York’s defensive personnel give the club a real chance to pressure San Antonio’s top ball handlers and make life difficult for Wembanyama. If Brunson takes care of business offensively, he’s a nice value at these odds, given his 29.8% usage rate and the fact that a winning team’s top scorer often has the clearest path to Finals MVP. — Eric Moody