Trump challenged with cold reality by allies Todd Blanche and Jeanine Pirro

While the Reflecting Pool prosecution and the so-called “anti-weaponisation fund” may be topics of intense presidential interest, they barely register as concerns for the larger American public.

That is decidedly not the case with the war with Iran, where Trump is once again accusing Iran of deceit amid another round of on-again, off-again negotiations and threats of overwhelming American military action.

On Monday, after asserting the previous day that he had called off “an attack that would have been the biggest attack since World War II” at the behest of Iranian officials and Arab intermediaries, Trump took to Truth Social to condemn what he said was Iranian duplicity after Iran denied any new direct negotiations.

“They ask for a meeting, some would say ‘beg’, talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions,” Trump wrote.

If Iranians are misrepresenting the status of talks it wouldn’t be the first time – but it also wouldn’t be the first time Trump has seemingly taken their assurances at face value and heralded a new diplomatic breakthrough.

US officials told the BBC’s partner CBS News on Monday that no “new” or novel negotiations with Iran were planned. An Iranian official said the country’s only current talks were with Oman, over the future of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest twists in the war have become a familiar pattern with little progress, as polls continue to show American disapproval of the conflict and concern that Trump is not achieving his war goals.

Those recent public-opinion surveys suggest the war has become a growing drag on the president’s overall popularity. A recent Associated Press poll puts Trump’s approval at 33%, aligned with similar findings by CNN, Quinnipiac and YouGov. That matches or is below Trump’s ratings after the Capitol riot and is above only Richard Nixon – who resigned from office in disgrace – among second-term US presidents in modern American history.

Trump, however, has repeatedly dismissed surveys suggesting his historic unpopularity.

“My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been,” he posted to Truth Social on Monday.

In three months, voters will head to the polls for congressional midterm elections. And Trump has shown surprising strength at the ballot box in the past, even in the face of seemingly daunting poll numbers.

While Trump may be grappling with – and, at times denying – recent adversity, that will be the ultimate measure of his political fate. And if Republicans struggle, it may provide yet another reality that Trump, despite his best efforts, must eventually face.