Trump’s Rivals Lead the Race for TIME Person of the Year on Polymarket

The U.S. president has won the honor twice before, but a third win looks unlikely this time.
TIME magazine will announce its Person of the Year in the coming months, and if prediction markets are any indication, Donald Trump is set to be disappointed. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican president — a two-time winner of the title — currently sits in third place. Topping both sites are New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV, both running neck-and-neck with Trump.
Trump’s relationship with Mamdani has swung between hostility and cordiality. The president has repeatedly attacked Mamdani, branding him a “communist,” even as a relatively friendly meeting between the two in November fueled speculation of an unlikely alliance. Trump said at the time, “I hope he really does a great job… the better he does, the happier I am.” The two met again in February, with Mamdani expressing hope of cooperating with Trump on issues like housing. But by April, Trump accused Mamdani of “destroying” New York with his tax policies, and in June, the administration’s border chief threatened to send in ICE forces if the state passed new sanctuary protections.
Trump’s relationship with Pope Leo has been even more strained. The first American pope has repeatedly criticized the administration’s “inhumane” immigration policies and its rhetoric on Iran, prompting Vice President JD Vance — himself Catholic — to warn the pope to be “careful” when weighing in on theological matters. Trump, in turn, accused the pope of being “weak” on crime and a foreign-policy failure. The rift has widened the gap between the administration and the Catholic Church, exemplified by the April cancellation of an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, which had provided housing and aid to migrant children for 60 years.