China’s exports keep rising despite Trump’s tariffs

The real but little recognized story this week is not that China’s exports slowed – a notion which has been generating doom-laden headlines around the world – but rather that they are still growing.

Shipments abroad rose 4.4% year on year in August, the weakest pace in half a year, but still an expansion at a time when tariffs, political tensions and slowing global demand should be pulling them down.

Plenty of countries could only dream of 4% export growth in this environment. And China is achieving it under the weight of an unpredictable trade war with the United States.

That resilience is striking. Exports to the US collapsed 33% in August, the predictable consequence of Washington’s tariff hikes. Yet China’s overall trade kept expanding because exporters are selling more to the rest of the world.

Shipments to Southeast Asia surged more than 22%, while exports to the EU grew 10%. China’s trade surplus widened to over US$102 billion last month, higher than July’s $98 billion.

The pattern is unmistakable: despite losing ground in the US, China is expanding elsewhere, including in the Global South.

This isn’t simply an accident of arithmetic. Since tariffs exploded in April, exporters have been forced to reconfigure their supply chains and open new markets.

Beijing’s reliance on trade has been heavy for years, but the latest data shows how quickly the country can redirect flows when one market shuts its doors. It is doing what many thought impossible – that’s to say, growing exports while absorbing unprecedented tariff levels in its traditionally richest markets.

There are explanations beyond ingenuity, too. Last year’s strong base makes the slowdown look starker than it is.

Even so, the broader picture is more important than many headlines miss. China is using this moment to deepen ties with emerging markets, particularly in Asia.

ASEAN has already overtaken both the EU and US as China’s largest trading partner, and the August numbers show the relationship is deepening.From electronics and machinery to intermediate goods, Southeast Asia is now the key growth outlet for Chinese exports.

To be sure, some of this is rerouting, as companies redirect goods through Vietnam or Malaysia and then onto other destinations to skirt tariffs.

Yet much of it is meeting genuine underlying demand. Regional economies are integrating with China at a pace that tariffs in Washington cannot slow.

For Beijing, this shift is both economic and strategic, giving it greater influence across Asia and reducing its dependence on the US consumer market.

Europe, too, remains a destination of strength. Chinese electric vehicles and consumer electronics continue to win market share there. Europe’s policymakers may complain and threaten countermeasures, but buyers are responding to price and quality.

Chinese automakers, in particular, are rapidly reshaping the global EV industry.What looks like a challenge in Brussels is for exporters in Shanghai or Shenzhen an opportunity. For businesses and investors outside China, three signals stand out.

First, China’s export machine is far more adaptable than many foresaw. Predictions of collapse have missed the mark again as supply chains are being bent, not broken.

Second, the trade war is not destroying trade; it is changing it. Global commerce is fragmenting into multiple hubs, and Southeast Asia is one clear beneficiary. Companies that still think in terms of one-directional supply chains are behind the curve.

Third, tariffs are failing as a weapon to blunt China’s export strength. They raise costs, sow uncertainty and shift trade patterns, but they are not knocking Beijing off its trade-led growth path. Export growth of 4% may not sound spectacular, but under the current conditions, it is a demonstration of strength and resilience.

That said, the path ahead is hardly smooth. The Trump administration is moving to tighten restrictions on rerouted goods. European regulators are growing more aggressive, particularly on EVs.

Inside China, weak domestic demand and a sluggish property sector mean exports must do even more of the heavy lifting to keep the broad economy aloft.

Still, the August export numbers show that China’s producers are delivering growth while facing heavy and ever-rising obstacles. In an era defined by tariffs, protectionism and trade disputes, the fact that China’s shipments are rising at all is nothing less than remarkable.