China’s economic retaliation against Takaichi is just beginning

China’s political tightrope with Japan has lurched into a sharper and more confrontational posture this week after Chinese pundits urged Beijing to ban exports of rare earths to Japan andhalt imports of Japanese seafood and farm goodsin response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-Taiwan remarks.

“I suggest banning rare earth exports to Japan, halting imports of Japanese seafood and agricultural products, advising Chinese tourists not to visit Japan, canceling visa-free arrangements for Japanese passport holders, and prohibiting entry to anyone who has visited the Yasukuni Shrine within the past 12 months,” Gao Zhikai, a professor at Suzhou University, said in a video posted on social media on Monday.

Gao did not clarify how the Chinese authorities might verify whether incoming Japanese visitors had recently been to the Yasukuni Shrine, a site long regarded as contentious for enshrining 14 convicted “class A” war criminals along with more than 1,000 others judged guilty by an Allied tribunal after World War II.

Gao is no ordinary Chinese pundit, but a seasoned figure who served as an interpreter at China’s Foreign Ministry in the 1980s and later at the United Nations Secretariat. Having earned a doctorate in law from Yale University in 1993, he has long been engaged in global corporate and academic circles.

Other pundits have jumped in to describe the world of hurt Japan could find itself in. “Japan relies on China for roughly 90% of its heavy rare earth imports, essential for technologies like EV batteries and smartphone chips,” a Fujian‑based columnist says. “Analysts have likened rare earths to ‘rice’ for Japan’s high‑tech sector. Without them, nothing runs. When China restricted rare earth supplies in 2010, several major Japanese manufacturers nearly halted production.”

She says that vulnerability has resurfaced as Takaichi hardens her stance.

In just two days, some of Gao’s suggestions have already begun translating into policy outcomes.

On Wednesday, Japanese media reported that Tokyo had beennotified by theChinese authorities that China would suspend imports of Japanese aquatic products with immediate effect, and that bilateral consultations on the resumption of Japanese beef exports to China had been terminated.

Before this, China’s Ministry of Education on November 14 released a study-abroad alert, noting a decline in Japan’s security environment and an uptick in risks faced by Chinese students. It urged those already in Japan and prospective students to track local developments closely, strengthen personal safety awareness and assess their plans with caution.

At the same time,China’s Foreign Ministry issued a travel advisory warning that public security conditions in Japan had deteriorated this year, citing a rise in criminal cases targeting Chinese nationals and several unresolved assault incidents.

In the first three days following the advisory, Chinese travel platforms reportedly canceled 491,000 outbound tickets to Japan, all eligible for full refunds.

Chinese media estimated that Japanese retailers and hotels stand to forgo about 278,000 yen (US$1,778) in revenue for every Chinese traveler scrapping trip, orUS$893 million in total. The figure will increase if Beijing keeps discouraging people from visiting Japan.

Relatively, the impact of China’s seafood ban on the Japanese economy is smaller. Japan’s seafood exports to China fell to 6.1 billion yen (US$39 million) in 2024 from87.1 billion yen in 2022 as Beijing banned Japanese seafood imports in August 2023 after Japan began releasing treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Last year, China’s markets accounted for less than 2% of Japan’s total seafood exports, compared with 22.5% in 2022.

In June this year, Beijing agreed to resume the imports of seafood from Japan, except in places near theFukushima plant.

“Japan previously committed to fulfilling its regulatory responsibilities for seafood exported to China and ensuring product safety, which is a prerequisite for such exports,” Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the ChineseForeign Ministry, said at a regular media briefing on Wednesday.

“Recently, the erroneous remarks made by Japan’s prime minister on major issues, including Taiwan, have triggered strong public indignation in China,” she said. “In the current atmosphere, even if Japanese seafood were allowed into China, it would have no market.”

She added thatChina will inevitably take firm and resolute countermeasures if Japan refuses to retract its erroneous statements.

Beijing’s strong reaction

Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have sharpened noticeably since October 21 when Takaichi, a longstanding conservative and security-focused politician, became Japan’s prime minister, the first woman to hold the post in the country’s history. She had a brief meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea on October 31.

On November 7, during a parliamentary session, Takaichi was pressed by an opposition lawmaker to define what developments in the Taiwan Strait would constitute a “survival‑threatening situation” for Japan, a legal threshold that enables the activation of the country’s Self‑Defense Forces.

“If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival‑threatening situation,” she said. Her remarks were widely interpreted as signalling a firmer security posture and a willingness to respond decisively to a potential Taiwan crisis.

Beijing’s response has been swift and forceful.A commentary published on November 16 by the People’s Liberation Army Daily further escalated the tone, warning that Japan would face grave consequences if it intervened militarily in the Taiwan Strait. The article listed three major risks:

“First, Japan would face a more hostile security environment, and any prospect of stable relations with China would quickly erode.”

“Second, the entire country could be exposed to conflict. Japan has already turned dozens of airports and ports, from Hokkaido in the north to Okinawa in the south, into dual‑use facilities. In large‑scale exercises this October, the Self‑Defense Forces used 39 airports and ports for fighter operations and military transport. This shows that by intervening in Taiwan, Tokyo would effectively place its own population on a dangerous path of self‑destruction.”

“Third, Japan risks renewed international criticism, as its provocative remarks on Taiwan revive concerns about a return to militarism and challenge the foundations of the post‑war order.”

On Tuesday, Masaaki Kanai, head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, met his Chinese counterpart Liu Jinsong in Beijing in an attempt to stabilize ties. But the talks produced little progress.

The meeting also stirred controversy in Tokyo after Beijing released footage showing Liu standing with his hands in his trouser pockets while Masaaki bowed. While bowing is a routine gesture of respect or greeting in Japan, it can be interpreted elsewhere as an expression of apology or subordination.

A Sichuan-based writer says that if China has a war against Japan, it won’t repeat the Qing government’s shameful defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War in 1894 to 1895, nor barely win as he says China did in the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937 to 1945. He says nowadays the Chinese army can crush Japan with ease.

The First Sino-Japanese War was indeed fought by the Qing government. In the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese Communist Party only assisted the Kuomintang (Nationalists) to resist Japan’s attack. The war ended as Japan surrendered after the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

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Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at@jeffpao3