US dangles F-35s as Saudi hunts edge in shifting Mideast skies

The US is dangling the F-35 stealth fighter before Saudi Arabia, igniting a new scramble for airpower dominance in the Middle East.

This month, US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman announced a landmark defense agreement in Washington that prominently featured the sale of advanced US weaponry, including future deliveries of the F-35.

The deal, part of a broader US-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement, was finalized during Trump’s meeting with the crown prince at the White House and represents a deepening of the two nations’ eight-decade military partnership.

If the sale goes through, Saudi Arabia will become the second F-35 operator in the Middle East along with Israel. However, the sale won’t affect Israel’s US-assured qualitative military superiority in the Middle East.

Reuters mentions that Saudi Arabia may be limited to two squadrons, or 24 jets, while Israel is in the process of assembling a third squadron. The report also states that Saudi Arabia may not enjoy US permission to upgrade F-35 jets and integrate some upgrades without prior US approval, unlike Israel.

In addition, it also says the US may withhold certain F-35 armaments from Saudi Arabia, such as the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) with a range of 193 kilometers – by far the most advanced missile technology associated with the F-35.

It adds that jets sold to Saudi Arabia may come with software restrictions, keeping the jets technologically inferior to their Israeli counterparts.

The agreement authorizes Saudi Arabia to acquire F-35s directly from US defense firms, a move designed to bolster the kingdom’s airpower capabilities while simultaneously reinforcing the US defense industrial base.

The sale has been framed as a win for Trump’s “America First” agenda, ensuring that Saudi Arabia continues to “buy American” while creating high-paying jobs for US workers.

The F-35 package is intended to strengthen deterrence across the Middle East, signaling the US’s commitment to regional stability and burden-sharing with allies. The timing of the announcement follows Saudi Arabia’s pledge to expand its US investment commitments to nearly $1 trillion.

From a capability standpoint, Israel’s June 2025 attacks on Iran may have showcased the F-35’s capabilities to Saudi Arabia. Iran’s obsolete air force, consisting of F-14s, F-4s and MiG 29s, couldn’t match stealth fighters such as the F-35, allowing the latter to operate with impunity over the former’s skies.

Moreover, the Israeli F-35s carried electronic warfare pods, which may have jammed and deceived Iran’s air defense radars. Israel’s F-35s have external fuel tanks, extending the aircraft’s range and allowing strikes from its territory 1,700 kilometers away from Iran.

While Iran may reconstitute its air force with Russian fighters such as the MiG-29 and Su-35, the fate of its nuclear program is still uncertain after US strikes on key underground sites, including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. This could make the F-35 a viable insurance policy against a resurgent Iran.

However, the New York Times reported that the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) raised concerns about the possible sale of US F-35s to Saudi Arabia, citing the risk of technology leakage considering Riyadh’s extensive defense ties with China, particularly in ballistic missile technology.

As a precedent, the report mentions the UAE’s failed bid to acquire US F-35s, citing risks to Israel’s assured qualitative military superiority and the risk of F-35 technology ending up in China.

But China could already be past the point of needing to acquire more F-35 technology. China’s J-35 stealth fighter – now in serial production – bears a striking resemblance to the F-35, which may suggest it was designed using stolen F-35 technology acquired through espionage.

Still, the US offer of F-35s to Saudi Arabia may be emblematic of “fighter diplomacy,” based on the premise that these sophisticated aircraft could not operate without extensive support from their manufacturer.

Further, US weapons sales may be based on the premise that buyers pay premium prices ($80 million per F-35) for cutting-edge military capabilities and integration into the US defense supply chain. That arrangement, however, effectively gives the US control over crucial sections of the client’s foreign and defense policy.

Those caveats may not be lost on Saudi Arabia, which may be wary of an unpredictable and increasingly transactional Trump administration – incentivizing the lessening of its dependence on US security guarantees.

Saudi Arabia’s financial clout, a diverse arsenal that includes weapons from China and Russia and inclination to hedge US influence with the latter two authoritarian states may make it harder for the US to influence using arms sales.

Trump’s F-35 sales pitch to Saudi Arabia comes at a time when China is finding its footing in the international fighter jet market. Previously, China’s fighter jet sales have been limited to a small group of client states such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Zambia and North Korea – states that may need fighters that are just “good enough” for short-range interception missions, posturing, airspace policing or against poorly-equipped adversaries.

However, the May 2025 India-Pakistan air skirmish over Kashmir may have been a massive showcase for China’s fighter jet exports, as Pakistan-operated J-10Cs downed at least one of India’s prized French-made Rafale fighters.

While Chinese weapons have usually been derided as cheap and inferior copies of Russian and Western equipment, that aerial victory may have shown that China’s fighter jets are now competitive with their foreign rivals.

Riding on its J-10C fighter’s newfound fame, China has been actively marketing its fighter jets in the Middle East, pitching the J-35 as an alternative to countries that can’t purchase the F-35.

Despite being marketed as low-cost fighters with “no strings attached,” China may operate on the same logic as the US, using dependencies—spare parts, maintenance, software updates, and training—to align clients’ foreign and defense policies with its interests.

Moreover, unlike the F-35, China’s J-35 remains untested in combat. While the F-35’s stealth and sensor fusion are touted as in a “class of its own,” much remains unknown about the J-35’s capabilities.

Still, Saudi Arabia may not be out of like-minded friends keen to wean themselves from US security guarantees and maintain strategic autonomy. The kingdom has expressed interest in acquiring 100 units of Turkey’s KAAN fighter, which was developed after the latter’s 2019 expulsion from the F-35 program.

Apart from that, Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in joining the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) fighter project. However, it isn’t clear if those projects can match the maturity, scale, funding and sophistication of the F-35 program.