No Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine

The idea of offering unilateral US security guarantees to Ukraine is an appalling idea that risks war with Russia. It means the US is willing to go to war to defend Ukraine, and gives the Ukrainians a license to stir up trouble, instigate provocations and drag America into a confrontation with Russia.

Such a guarantee imperils Europe. If the US sends troops to Ukraine, the Russians will counterattack and their forces won’t simply focus on Ukraine. Russia will attack the entire NATO edifice. A new world war will start, and the consequences in lives and property will make Ukraine look like small potatoes.

Every study (including numerous simulations) shows that a war in Europe would be devastating, kill millions and lead to the rapid defeat of NATO forces. NATO is not prepared, nor is the US on its own.

The US is not able to produce enough needed weapons, its army in a peer-to-peer conflict is completely untested and it would have to support an expeditionary force thousands of miles from home in an intense large-scale conflict.

Europe’s territory is poorly defended, European armies are under-staffed, Europe’s air defenses are thin to non-existent and its stockpile of weapons is pathetically small. Europe is no match for Russia, whose war machine is fully industrialized.

The only remaining cog in the Russian machinery is full mobilization, but if Ukraine is allowed to start a world war, Russia will massively upscale its army.

Worse still, if an Article 5-like security deal is actually invoked, it will open the US to a confrontation in the Pacific as China won’t hesitate to move if the US is bogged down in Ukraine and Europe.

America’s ability to defend Taiwan will be compromised. North Korea could attack as well, destabilizing the Korean peninsula and risking US forces stationed there. Even Japan may find itself in great peril and can expect the loss of strategic islands, or much more.

When you think about it, the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine is only a ploy to erase America’s strategic independence.

This is exactly the same issue that scuttled the 1919 Versailles Treaty ratification in the US Senate. Instead of Congress being the sole decision-maker deciding if the US should go to war, the Versailles Treaty would have transferred that Constitutional responsibility to the new League of Nations.

An Article 5 like US undertaking for Ukraine would also remove Congress from responsibility for declaring war.

NATO’s Article 5 is a little different. Should NATO actually invoke Article 5, the member states will need to decide on what action each individually will take in response. A Ukraine security guarantee takes away flexibility and creates an unprecedented legal obligation to go to war.

If this is what is intended, and it seems to be so, it is a dreadful idea that threatens America’s Constitution even more than the rejected Versailles Treaty. Those negotiating on the US behalf, most recently in Berlin, Germany, simply don’t appear to understand what they are offering to Ukraine and the immense risks such an offer entails.

US President Donald Trump keeps insisting that the Ukraine war is not his war and he wants to stay out of the conflict (although, quite honestly, the rhetoric does not match the reality).

An Article 5-like security guarantee makes the Ukraine war America’s war. It is no surprise this is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal: drive the Americans into the conflict and trap them into going to war against Russia.

Nothing could be a worse and more dangerous outcome. Trump needs to think about the implications of the offer made in Berlin. It would be beneficial to take it off the table before it is too late.

Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense and special correspondent at Asia Times. This article was first published on his newsletterWeapons and Strategy and is republished with permisson.