China plays rare-earth card on Japan, but keeps it subtle

China reportedly has begun restricting rare-earth exports to Japanto pressure Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to withdraw her pro-Taiwan remarks. But at the same time, it’s holding back from pushing this too far due to strategic reasons.

The Wall Street Journal reported thatChina has already begun restricting exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets to Japan, escalating the diplomatic and economic dispute and again highlighting Beijing’s readiness to use critical minerals as geopolitical leverage.

It said the curbs would weigh on Japanese suppliers linked to global chipmakers, automakers and defense contractors, particularly because they target heavy rare earths and high-performance magnets that are scarce, costly and difficult to replace.

On January 6,China announced that it would strengthen export controls on dual‑use items shipped to Japan, effective immediately.Under the new rules, exports of dual‑use items are banned if they are intended for uses that could strengthen Japan’s military capabilities.

Without mentioning specific items, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said dual‑use items are goods, technologies or services that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, including those that could support weapons development.

Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Takehiro Funakoshi has lodged a formal protest with Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao. However, Wu rejected the representation, saying China would proceed with the relevant steps in accordance with its established timetable.

China Daily reported on January 6 that, in light of what it described as Japan’s recent “bad conduct,” Beijing is considering tightening export licensing reviews for certain medium and heavy rare-earth items that were formally placed under control on April 4, 2025. These niche metals includesamarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.

Rather than a blanket ban, the China Daily report said the Chinese authorities are “weighing more targeted and stringent approval procedures to apply pressure.”

He Yadong, a spokesperson for the Chinese Commerce Ministry, said in a media briefing on January 8 that the newly-imposed export ban on dual-use items to Japan would affect only military firms, not civilian users.

Anti-China alliance

Last November, Takaichi said that any battleships and use of force against Taiwan could constitute a “survival‑threatening situation” for Japan,a legal threshold that enables the activation of the country’s Self‑Defense Forces.

Theoretically, if Japan joins a war in the Taiwan Strait and its own territory is attacked, the US will have to provide Japan with military support under the 1951 US-Japan Security Treaty.From Beijing’s perspective, this will complicate the situation during the People’s Liberation Army’s mission to occupy Taiwan.

Apparently, Beijing has begun slowing the processingof rare-earth-related exports. This time, it’s done in a low-profilemanner.

“Real action often takes place beyond formal wording, in areas such as customs clearance speeds or the length of technical reviews,” says Tai Tai, a Fujian-based columnist.“The non-written curbslook like normal and explainable procedural adjustments, but at the same time can create the greatest psychological burden on Japan.”

“Companies cannot actually protest or appeal against a decision that does not explicitly exist,” he says. “They can only wait and repeatedly question whether they have done anything wrong.”

He adds that a direct cutoff of niche-metal supply to Japan, similar to theapproach taken in 2010, may push Japan into a full confrontation and accelerate permanent decoupling, whilegiving Washington an excuse to form an anti-China alliance.

Ambiguity is flexibility

In 2010, Beijing briefly halted rare‑earth exports to Japan during a territorial dispute. At the time, Japan imported about 28,000 metric tons a year, roughly 90% of which came from China.Japan and its Western partners later filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which ruled against China’s export controls in August 2014.

Over the past 15 years, Japan has continued investing in overseas projects, boosting recycling and developing alternative technologies, but it still imports about 60% of its rare earths from China. That meansChina’s rare-earth card remains a high-impact tool for pressuring Japan.

“It is important to note that official documents have not declared a complete cut-off of rare-earth supplies to Japan,” saysChen Kai, a Fujian-based columnist. “The real risk lies in the grey zone. How do companies prove their products are not for military use, and how do suppliers ensure materials will not enhance Japan’s military capabilities?”

He says that such an ambiguity givesBeijing the flexibility to fine-tune its export controls wheneverTokyo signals de-escalation.

Chen Bing, a commentator with Shenzhen Satellite TV’s Zhinews, says that, by not spelling out specific items on its export control list, China can apply precise pressure on Japan in accordance with its needs.

“Takaichi will probably try to seek help from Washington,” he says.“But in fact, Takaichi does not need to do so. As long as she withdraws her mistaken comments on Taiwan and makes a public correction, China-Japan tensions would ease.”

Media reports saidJapan has sought help from the G7 and the US due to China’s rare-earth export controls.

On October 9, 2025, the Chinese government announced plans to tighten export controls on key minerals. After European Union countries expressed serious concerns and US President Trump threatened to impose an additional100% tariff on Chinese goods, Beijing softened its stance, saying that Washington had exaggerated the impact of China’s rare earths export controls.

Read: US, China edge toward fragile truce ahead of Trump-Xi meeting

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