US paralysis on Iran crisis owes to Navy capacity gaps

The ongoing Iranian protests and the Islamic Republic’s brutal repression have led to widespread massacres nationwide, with far-reaching regional and geopolitical implications.

Amid the crackdown, both the US and Israeli governments have prepared numerous contingencies should the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia’s murderous repression continue to escalate.

This week, US President Donald Trump told Iran’s anti-regime protesters US “help is on the way” and that he had canceled US meetings with Iranian officials “until the senseless killings stop.” On January 2, he said the US was “locked and loaded” and ready to “rescue” protesters if Iran used lethal force against them.

However, a US military or hybrid response has been slow in coming, largely because of a lack of readily available American assets in the Middle East. Much of the active US Navy (USN) is either deployed in the Indo-Pacific, Caribbean or undergoing maintenance.

In the event of multiple simultaneous crises, the United States requires a range of options to respond within days, particularly at sea. With American shipbuilding in decline, a renewed focus on maritime revival has become critical to US force projection and deterrence.

Starting on December 28, Iranian citizens launched nationwide protests amid economic deterioration and poor resource management. The Islamic Republic has been strained by a range of socioeconomic issues, including poor water management, US-led sanctions and a collapsing currency that millions of citizens now on the streets view as intolerable.

As the protests gained momentum, echoing the unrest of 2009, Iran’s rulers have moved swiftly to violent suppression. The IRGC and Basij militia units have used live fire, while Tehran imposed an internet blackout to hide the brutality of their measures from the outside world.

Iranian diaspora activists have lobbied for intervention as estimates of protestors killed in less than two weeks range from as low as 3,000 to as many as 12,000, according to Iran International.

The US has condemned the Iranian regime’s repression, and President Donald Trump has signaled a shift toward more hard-line policies against Tehran, including a possible US military intervention. Trump has reportedly been presented with a wide array of strike options and hybrid or informational warfare tools to pressure Iran’s ruling clerics into either negotiations or further weakening the regime.

Israel could also join any kinetic action taken by the US. Contingency plans to move US and British forces away from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar have been implemented amid concerns of potential IRGC retaliation in the region.

Washington would have to calculate a military response against Tehran, given limited assets, and the risk of IRGC retaliation. The Patriot system, originally used in Israel during the 12 Day War, has been returned to South Korea, and much of the Central Command’s naval rotation is currently in the Caribbean.

America’s THAAD system also saw a quarter of its interceptors expended during the war.

Big carrier gaps

A major factor behind the slow US response is the scarcity of naval assets available within the US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. After two years of regional conflicts in the Middle East requiring sustained deployments, much of the US Navy’s active fleet is grounded for maintenance, while nearly one-quarter of the fleet is assigned to the Caribbean.

The USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group is currently deployed to the Caribbean under the 4th Fleet (SOUTHCOM) as part of Operation Southern Spear, with USS Tripoli based in Sasebo, Japan, to support 7th Fleet operations in the Indo-Pacific.

Only three aircraft carriers (CVNs) are currently deployed – the USS Gerald R Ford, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George Washington), with the latter two operating in the Indo-Pacific as of January 13. The George H W Bush and USS Theodore Roosevelt may be deployed to relieve the USS Gerald R Ford and USS George Washington.

The redeployment of the USS Gerald R Ford from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Caribbean underscores growing gaps in US force projection. Any military action against Iran would require extensive naval missile-defense capabilities, including Aegis systems, to counter potential ballistic missile retaliation.

According to NewsNation, the USS Lincoln was set to redeploy from the South China Sea towards the Middle East as of January 14. Even so, the transit is expected to take at least a week, during which the death toll among Iranian protestors will likely rise.

Lagging naval production

Gaps in US force projection and crisis response are closely tied to America’s naval production decline. Analysts point to falling production rates as a core challenge. For example, the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program originally planned for 52 ships, but due to constraints and bureaucracy, only 35 are currently serviceable.

Some analysts argue that reviving the domestic shipbuilding industry would help address contingencies such as those now posed by Iran’s crisis. A May 2025 article by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation described the SHIPS Act as critical for near-term growth, as it entices maritime companies to improve competitiveness and develop shipyard workforces.

Under the Ensuring Naval Readiness Act, the US is receiving a major industrial boost through key partnerships with Finland, Japan and South Korea that aim to improve the US Navy and its production capacity.

Finland is assisting with Arctic Security Cutters development, Japan has pledged to invest in the US after signing a memorandum on shipbuilding and South Korean firms will train American shipyard workers on ways to accelerate output.

Neglect of the US Navy not only undermines national readiness but also hampers responses to global crises, an area in which the service once excelled. An overstretched military, coupled with declining naval ship production, is now constraining America’s response to Iran’s civil unrest at a crucial moment.

To avoid being caught off guard by an overextended fleet, a US naval revival must become a top priority for the Pentagon and Congress throughout the 2020s and beyond.

Julian McBride is a defense analyst and contributing editor at 19FortyFive.