When leverage replaces certainty

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US trade no longer anchors Germany’s export model
Diego Faßnacht shows Germany’s trade surplus with the US has sharply narrowed as exports fell and imports rose in 2025. Core industrial sectors weakened, China overtook the US as Germany’s top trading partner, and foreign trade data now point to structural adjustment pressure.

Political blizzard in Japan leaves voters with limited visibility
Scott Foster reports Japan’s snap election is being held amid fragmented opposition, shifting alliances, and voter concern over living costs. Despite high approval for Prime Minister Takaichi, coalition arithmetic is uncertain, and outcomes may tilt either toward a stronger right-wing bloc or a centrist check.

Russia builds leverage with Trump through ‘yes, but’ diplomacy
James Davis writes that as Russian forces advance militarily, Moscow is cautiously engaging Trump’s peace initiative while refusing core concessions on Donbass. Russia’s calibrated cooperation aims to keep Trump engaged, test European limits, and strengthen Moscow’s negotiating position without provoking Washington.