Finding Trump-Beijing balance may prove Takaichis big challenge

This article originally published by Pacific Forum is republished with permission.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi notched a historic election win last weekend. The first woman to head a party ticket in national elections in Japan led her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a landslide victory, claiming the most seats for a single party in postwar history. All doubts about her coattails have been dispelled. Her popularity propelled the LDP to a supermajority in the Lower House, establishing her as the dominant figure in Japanese politics.

In Sunday’s ballot, the LDP won 316 seats (198 before the vote), surpassing the 310 seats needed to claim a two-thirds majority in the Lower House. (The party’s previous best performance in a Lower House election was in 1986 when it secured 300 seats.) Combined with those of the Japan Innovation Party (JIP, known in Japan as Ishin no Kai), the ruling coalition holds 352 of 465 seats, or 75% (233 before the vote.) A super-majority – when the government claims two-thirds of seats – allows the Lower House to override the Upper House (now controlled by the opposition) when there is a clash between the two bodies.

In simplest terms, the LDP controls Japanese politics and the LDP can rightfully be called Takaichi’s party. The party had languished since the departure of Shinzo Abe, her mentor and role model, losing seats and control of the Lower House in October 2024 and that of the less-powerful Upper House in the July 2025 ballot. Takaichi reversed those trends – and how.

Under Abe, the party in 2012 wrestled back control of the government from the Democratic Party of Japan with a 294-seat win. Junichiro Koizumi, the other distinctive LDP prime minister of this century, mustered a 296-seat victory in the 2005 ballot, when his pet issue, postal reform, was foremost in voters’ minds. Takaichi blew past both results.

Today, however, there is a big difference. In previous elections, the party relied on its leader’s popularity but also the factions within the party that organized politicians and mobilized voters. Without them, the leader’s popularity plays an even larger role in securing support. LDP lawmakers owe more to the PM now than they have in the past.

(Factions’ absence will make it harder for her to direct the party when she needs to take action. Factions were key communications channels, instrumental in educating, organizing and mobilizing politicians, platoons within the larger LDP army.)

What she will do with that power is not hard to divine. Takaichi will push her priorities: an expansionary economic policy, growth in 17 strategic industrial and technological sectors and a bigger defense budget. The supermajority will even allow her to contemplate the conservative’s holy grail, constitutional reform.

There is considerable analysis that explains the LDP’s shellacking of the opposition. The simplest is this: The Centrist Reform Alliance, formed by the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner, failed to convince voters it was anything other than a warmed-over, bigger version of its component parts. Nothing new.

The real credit goes to Takaichi, who presented herself as a fresh, energetic, self-made politician with a vision for her country. She presented herself and was seen as representative of a new Japan, a claim made credible by the fact that she was the first female prime minister and was prepared to proceed on her instincts rather than relying on the party’s old guard.

To her credit too, those instincts have proven sharper than anticipated. An avowed nationalist, she hasn’t yet visited Yasukuni Shrine as PM. She hasn’t pandered to the antiforeigner vote as anti-immigrant sentiment has risen. She has understood the value of ambiguity as she navigates coalition building, but she hasn’t descended into wishy-washy platitudes.

She is a defense hawk who seeks more defense spending, expanding military capabilities, a higher regional security profile, new national security documents and loosened restrictions on defense exports.

Given China’s efforts to punish Japan for Takaichi’s comments last year that a Taiwan contingency could be a national emergency for Japan, suggesting that Tokyo would be involved in any such crisis, her sweeping victory is proof that Japanese voters are not intimidated.

The relationship with China is one leg of the triangle that will be Takaichi’s biggest foreign policy challenge. For the most part, her victory will strengthen relations with the US. President Trump seems more comfortable with strong leaders and the two have enjoyed a good relationship since Takaichi took office. Trump issued congratulations and praise for Takaichi after the results were in, noting that it was “my honor to endorse you and your coalition.” He added that “The wonderful people of Japan, who voted with such enthusiasm, will always have my strong support.”

Her defense plans will consolidate that relationship although there will be discussion of, and likely friction over, defense spending. The US points to South Korea as an ideal ally – a comparison that is always a source of angina in Tokyo – and its commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defense will chafe when Japan is working to double its own budget to 2%.

The Nikkei is also reporting that “Trump’s support masks fury” over delays in Japan planned investment of $550 billion in the US. Three projects were being negotiated, the paper said, but no final decisions have been made despite a yearend deadline. Those talks will continue and will figure prominently in the anticipated summit between Trump and Takaichi that is scheduled for March.

Here, the third leg of Japan’s key foreign policy triangle – US-China relations – matters. Also likely to top Takaichi’s agenda at that summit is what Trump will tell China’s supreme leader Xi Jinping when they meet as anticipated in April. Xi will press Trump to rein in his ally, in line with Beijing’s criticism of Takaichi as a disruptive, destabilizing force in regional politics.

There are some fears that Trump will prioritize his trade deal and relations with China over his country’s ally. Anything less than full throated support will alarm Japan.

Navigating between Trump and Beijing may prove to be Takaichi’s most formidable challenge.

Brad Glosserman(brad@pacforum.org) is director of research and senior advisor at Pacific Forum.