US, China embracing risk in Pakistans violent mineral frontier

For much of Pakistan’s modern history, Balochistan has been described in terms of risk and security, political grievances and stalled development.

Its immense mineral wealth, long noted in geological surveys and policy debates, has yet to translate into sustained, meaningful international investment. The result has been a persistent gap between promise and reality, shaping global perceptions of the province as a frontier of dangerous uncertainty rather than a destination for long-term economic commitment.

That narrative, however, is beginning to change. Renewed waves of Chinese and Pakistani investment, focused on the long-delayed Reko Diq project, suggest that major investors are reassessing both the scale of Balochistan’s buried mineral treasures and the strategic logic of remaining engaged despite chronic instability and insurgent threat.

Robust projections of US$5 billion in phased mineral exports over the coming decade do not erase the province’s structural and insurgency challenges, but do signal rising confidence that Pakistan’s evolving security measures, infrastructure planning and international partnerships are better placed than before to sustain long-horizon resource development.

In this light, Reko Diq is becoming more than a mining venture; it is emerging as a test of whether economic potential and geopolitical necessity can redraw long-standing perceptions of security risk.

From volatility to investment reality

Balochistan has long been portrayed as too volatile for large-scale extraction. Yet recent activity across the province’s mineral belt tells a more complex story.

Chinese companies and major Pakistani business groups have secured new concessions to mine for copper, gold and associated minerals, expanding participation beyond Canada-based Barrick Mining Corp’s flagship Reko Diq venture and hinting at the early formation of a broader mining corridor rather than a single isolated project.

Indeed, logistics planning is already advancing. The Pakistan International Bulk Terminal at Port Qasim has been contracted to handle mineral exports exceeding $5 billion in phases, while Reko Diq alone is expected to generate roughly $2.7 billion annually in its initial stage.

Output could reach 800,000 to one million tons of concentrate per year once production begins around 2028-29. For an economy constrained by weak exports and recurring balance-of-payments crises, a project of this scale carries implications far beyond the mining sector to broader national economic health.

Ownership arrangements reflect deliberate political and financial balancing. Barrick holds 50%, with the remaining share divided between Pakistan’s federal government and the Balochistan provincial government, combining foreign capital with sovereign participation and risk-sharing.

Planned spending of about $150 million in specialized port infrastructure, embedded in a broader development framework nearing $7.7 billion, points to a multi-decade commitment rather than speculative entry.

Capital rarely moves at this scale into environments investors judge fundamentally unviable, and the expanding web of concessions, logistics and infrastructure increasingly resembles a market-based vote of confidence in Pakistan’s long-term stability.

Reko Diq is also emerging as geopolitical terrain. Reported US financial backing of roughly $1.3 billion tied to critical minerals supply chains signals Washington’s interest in securing copper and gold vital for electrification, renewable energy and defense manufacturing.

At the same time, Chinese-linked investment and regional partnerships continue to deepen. The convergence of competing interests mirrors patterns seen in Congo’s cobalt, Zambia’s copper and Chile’s lithium, where strategic minerals increasingly draw great global power competition.

This mineral momentum sits within a much larger China-Pakistan economic framework. Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship Belt and Road Initiative project, China has pledged investments exceeding $62 billion across energy, transport and industrial infrastructure.

Gwadar Port’s development on the Arabian Sea anchors this strategy, offering China shorter trade and energy routes to the Middle East while positioning Pakistan as a regional logistics hub. Bilateral trade now stands around $25-27 billion annually, with China now Pakistan’s largest trading partner and one of its most significant long-term investors.

In this broader context, Reko Diq is not an isolated mine but part of an emerging strategic resource and connectivity corridor.

Security risks, state response

Security threats, however, are as volatile and potent as ever. Militant attacks in Balochistan and subsequent state military operations underscore the fragility of the operating environment, just as Pakistan seeks to attract global mining finance.

Separatist violence has historically targeted infrastructure, security forces and symbols of external economic control – the fixed vulnerabilities on which extractive megaprojects depend.

In response, Pakistan has begun expanding its intelligence network and strengthening dedicated protection arrangements around the province’s mineral districts. Plans to reinforce the Frontier Corps and tighten border security along the borders with Iran and Afghanistan reflect an effort to reassure investors that large-scale resource projects can operate under sustained state protection, even within a volatile security landscape.

For investors, the central question now is whether these risks can be reasonably contained. Experience from politically unstable mining regions across Africa and Latin America shows that high-value ore bodies can sustain production when supported by layered security, transport resilience and strong fiscal incentives.

Pakistan appears to be moving cautiously in that direction through specialized protection forces, expanded intelligence coordination and deeper security cooperation with key partners, particularly China.

Yet security alone cannot ensure durability. Many analysts argue that Balochistan’s unrest stems less from militant capability than from political exclusion, uneven resource distribution and governance deficits.

Without credible local inclusion, employment, revenue sharing, infrastructure delivery, and institutional trust, large-scale extraction risks reinforce the very grievances that threaten it. Mining has stabilized fragile regions before, but only where surrounding communities perceived tangible benefit rather than dispossession and marginalization.

Beyond macroeconomic projections, expectations within Balochistan itself remain closely tied to whether large-scale mining will translate into actual local benefit. Provincial officials and community representatives frequently point to jobs, revenue participation, roads, water access, education and healthcare as the measures by which projects like Reko Diq will ultimately be judged.

For many residents, mineral wealth carries meaning only if it improves daily life on the ground, rather than remaining confined to national accounts or distant investors. The durability of investor confidence may therefore depend as much on local trust as on geology, security arrangements or global commodity demand.

Strategic test in a mineral-driven world

For Pakistan’s leadership, the accelerating global mineral push is both an opportunity and strategic test.

Success could strengthen exports, attract sustained exploration capital and integrate the country more deeply into global supply chains linking Central Asia, the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific. Failure could deepen investor skepticism not only toward Balochistan but toward Pakistan generally.

What is increasingly clear is that Balochistan’s future will no longer be shaped solely within Pakistan’s borders. As global competition for critical minerals intensifies, external powers are positioning themselves around the province’s copper and gold. The decisive question is not whether these resources will be developed, but who will shape the terms of extraction, and whether local communities will share in the mined wealth.

For now, capital continues to move despite violence and uncertainty. That persistence alone marks a shift in perception. Balochistan is no longer viewed simply as a frontier of instability, but as a strategic landscape whose wider importance is becoming harder to ignore.

Saima Afzal is an independent and freelance researcher specializing in South Asian security, counterterrorism, the Middle East, Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific region. She holds an M. Phil in peace and conflict studies from the National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan.