Indonesias carrier ambition risks becoming a paper tiger

Indonesia’s naval posture is on the cusp of a significant upgrade. As of February 2026, it is increasingly certain that Jakarta has accepted Italy’s offer to transfer the light aircraft carrier ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi as a strategic grant.

Named after the legendary unifier of Italy, the vessel is set to be reflagged and commissioned as a principal command ship within the Indonesian Navy. Once integrated, it is expected to become a consequential platform in the Indo-Pacific theater.

Although the hull itself is being transferred at no cost under a Rome–Jakarta strategic cooperation agreement, the Indonesian government will still commit substantial funding to make it fully operational.

The required budget is estimated at around US$450 million, roughly 7 trillion rupiah. That figure underscores Indonesia’s seriousness in accelerating naval modernization amid intensifying geopolitical friction vis-à-vis China in its northern waters.

The funds will not merely cover the acquisition of a decommissioned platform but a comprehensive refurbishment program. A large-scale retrofit will be undertaken at the renowned Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri, encompassing restoration of the gas turbine propulsion system to peak performance, upgraded radar suites and next-generation electronic sensors compatible with the broader Indonesian Armed Forces command-and-control architecture.

Guardian of the ocean gate

Viewed through the prism of Alfred Thayer Mahan, the foundational theorist of modern maritime strategy who argued that sea power determines national prosperity, Indonesia’s decision is strategically coherent.

For Mahan, a nation occupying a pivotal maritime crossroads must possess the capacity to project power beyond its littoral waters through a credible fleet.

Indonesia’s naval doctrine has long reflected a green-water navy orientation, concentrating operational focus within archipelagic and coastal zones. This posture has constrained enforcement across the country’s vast exclusive economic zone, particularly in distant waters where radar coverage and patrol endurance remain technically limited.

The Giuseppe Garibaldi’s arrival will recalibrate that equation. As a floating forward base, it would enable the Indonesian Navy to exercise sea control in critical theaters, including sensitive areas such as the North Natuna Sea where China has asserted claims under its nine-dash line encompassing the South China Sea.

In operational terms, the carrier will function as a force multiplier across the fleet. Anti-submarine warfare helicopters will gain extended operational range, able to refuel and rearm at sea rather than return to shore bases. The geostrategic implications are substantial: any foreign entity contemplating incursions would face faster detection cycles and more agile response mechanisms.

A mobile command hub at sea confers clear tactical advantages in coordinating combat operations and maritime security patrols in real time. Beyond that, the vessel introduces a new deterrent layer: carrier platform ownership effectively shifts the defensive perimeter outward, pushing potential threats farther from the mainland.

Shifting maritime balance

Within Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s profile would become markedly more prominent. Compared with Thailand’s HTMS Chakri Naruebet, the refurbished Giuseppe Garibaldi would hold a technological edge in combat management systems following its modernization. Bangkok, by contrast, has largely repurposed its carrier for humanitarian and limited operational roles.

Jakarta is expected to deploy the platform as an active, fully integrated fleet command center tasked with safeguarding vital sea lanes. Meanwhile, Singapore’s planned Joint Multi-Mission Ship remains oriented toward logistics and troop transport rather than serving as a dedicated combat carrier.

Strategically, Indonesia stands to consolidate a more tangible maritime leadership role within ASEAN. No longer confined to diplomatic rhetoric, Jakarta could evolve into a self-reliant regional security provider – giving substantive expression to its long-standing “free and active” foreign policy doctrine.

More fundamentally, carrier ownership signals that Indonesian sovereignty is non-negotiable and not reliant upon external military alliances. The country would be better positioned to secure its own maritime domain without habitual reliance on outside powers whose assistance often carries embedded political calculus. In effect, the platform strengthens Indonesia’s bargaining power as the world’s largest archipelagic state.

In the ASEAN context, the carrier could also serve as an instrument of maritime diplomacy, leading large-scale joint exercises to reinforce regional stability. This enhanced leverage would allow Jakarta to defend international maritime law, including the principles enshrined in UNCLOS, with materially credible force underpinning its diplomacy.

Avoiding the paper tiger trap

Yet a carrier’s presence alone does not guarantee enhanced power. Its true strength lies in the ecosystem surrounding it. Indonesia must therefore ensure the formation of a robust carrier strike group to shield this high-value asset.

The Giuseppe Garibaldi cannot operate independently in contested waters. It must be escorted by at least two or three air-defense-capable frigates, potentially from the Merah Putih class, supported by stealth submarines and dedicated replenishment ships. Without layered protection, a carrier becomes an attractive target for long-range anti-ship missiles.

Given the absence of costly V/STOL fighters such as the F-35B, a more innovative pathway would be to convert the vessel into a UAV carrier. Deploying advanced combat drones from its deck would deliver cost-effective airpower while mitigating pilot risk. In a drone-centric maritime battlespace, such a configuration could prove transformative.

Logistics will be equally decisive. Gas-turbine carriers consume significant fuel volumes. Without a strengthened tanker fleet to sustain operations at sea, mission endurance would be sharply constrained, undermining deterrence credibility.

In sum, the Giuseppe Garibaldi’s acquisition represents a pivotal geostrategic leap for Indonesia’s maritime future. It is not merely about modernizing hardware, but a reckoning with historical destiny for a nation positioned at the intersection of two oceans.

October 2026, the projected arrival date, may mark the dawn of a new maritime era. If fully integrated into a technologically advanced combat ecosystem, the vessel will send an unmistakable signal: Southeast Asia’s maritime giant is prepared to defend its domain.

Ultimately, the project’s success will hinge on sustained budgetary discipline and political resolve to modernize the naval branch holistically. Managed effectively, the Giuseppe Garibaldi could become a symbol of Indonesia’s maritime resurgence, echoing the seafaring prowess of its great kingdoms centuries ago.

Ronny P. Sasmita is a senior international affairs analyst at Indonesia Strategic and Economics Action Institution, a Jakarta-based think tank.