Box Office: Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Rocks at No. 1 as Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Smashing Machine’ Bombs

Taylor Swift‘s Life of a Showgirl special theatrical event is rocking at the domestic box office, where it’s headed for a first-place finish with a weekend haul of at $28 million to $32 million from 3,702 theaters, according to estimates from Swift’s team and partner AMC Theatres. Some distributors believe it could even approach $35 million.

Whatever the outcome, those numbers are in sharp contrast to ticket sales for the Dwayne Johnson-led biopic The Smashing Machine, which is getting knocked around in its domestic debut in what looks to be a career-low opening for the actor despite delivering a performance worthy of Oscar consideration. Playing in 3,345 theaters, the A24 release took ind $2.7 million Friday for a projected weekend gross of $6 million, versus the $12 million to $14 million it was expected to earn. The R-rated pic was slapped with a B- CinemaScore by moviegoers, but has fared well with critics.

Conversely, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl earned a coveted A+ CinemaScore, just as her history-making concert film Eras Tour did. Nearly 90 percent of Friday’s moviegoers were female.

Swift went to great lengths to keep the Showgirl project top secret until the 11th hour (they almost succeeded, but not quite), much to the chagrin of other distributors who don’t like last-minute surprises. She announced the Oct. 3-5 special event on Sept. 19 in a well-orchestrated social media post informing fans that advance tickets would go sale that day at 12:12 local time for $12, in keeping with Swift’s longtime relationship with numbers (Showgirl is her 12th studio album). Consumers can expect to pay notably more than $12 for premium large format screenings.

Showgirl, playing in theaters for only three days, can best be described as a mix of music videos, behind-the-scenes footage and a series of lyric videos for tracks on her new album. And it’s anchored by the world premiere of the music video forShowgirlsingle “The Fate of Ophelia,” which she directed.

In 2023, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour catapulted Swift to box office fame when it opened to a record-smashing $93.2 million domestically on its way to becoming the top-grossing concert film of all time with $261.6 million in global ticket sales. The superstar and her team financed the $15 million project, bypassing the Hollywood studio system in partnering withAMC Theatres to distribute the film. The cinema circuit is likewise releasingShowgirlin partnership with Variance Films in the U.S. and Canada, and with Piece of Magic Entertainment in other international markets.

According to THR‘s review of Showgirl, “The 89-minute cinematic experience — neither visual album nor concert film, and not quite a documentary — is strictly for the diehards. But while there’s something to be said for the communal experience of absorbing an album surrounded by dozens of like-minded fans, what’s actually being served up on screen is more filler than killer.”

Paul Thomas Anderson’s awards contender One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, is falling to second-place in its sophomore outing. The Warner Bros. film is expected to fall 51 percent to $10.8 million for a 10-day domestic total of $80 million.

From filmmaker Benny Safdie, Smashing Machine reunites Johnson with his Jungle Cruise co-star and good friend Emily Blunt, who played a key role in bringing Johnson and Safdie together. The film is based on the real-life story of Mark Kerr, a former college wrestler who battled trauma and an addiction to painkillers during the early years of the UFC.

The male-fueled movie — which marks the first time Johnson has pursued a place in the Oscar race — is looking at a third-place finish behind Showgirl and holdover One Battle After Another.

Swift’s Showgirl isn’t hurting Smashing Machine in terms of stealing away moviegoers, but it did swoop in and book a number of premium large-format screens that Smashing Machine had wanted.

Insiders close to the film say tracking was overly aggressive because of Johnson’s star status, and that a $6 million start isn’t uncommon during awards season. More important than a big opening weekend is sustaining momentum. While that’s certainly true, many moviegoers don’t seem to be connecting with Smashing Machine thus far, based on the worrisome B- CinemaScore (for an adult drama, that’s like receiving a C).

A24 has worked magic before. Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale was neither a critical or box office hit in the U.S., yet that didn’t hurt its Oscar chances, with Brendan Fraser winning the Oscar for best actor. And in 2019, the Safdie brothers’ Uncut Gems, starring Adam Sandler, became both an awards darling and a box office winner despite receiving a C+ CinemaScore.

One difference between Smashing Machine and those two films: A24 opened The Whale and Uncut Gems in only a handful of theaters in early December before expanding the two titles nationwide over Christmas (The Whale never played in more than 1,700 or so cinemas). Opening Smashing Machine in 3,345 locations is a far more aggressive move, although sources say A24 remains confident that the film will find its stride as word-of-mouth grows and becomes more positive. The indie distributor also believes Johnson will remain in the awards mix.

Another offering this weekend is James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which is being rereleased exclusively in 3D. Like Swift’s team, Cameron and partner 20th Century/Disney are using the box office for promotional purposes: this Christmas, Avatar: Ash and Fire opens.

Way of Water is playing in 90 percent of all Imax auditoriums domestically, but will have to share Dolby Cinema screens and other premium large-format auditoriums. Way of Water is projected to earn $2 million to $3 million domestically from 2,100 theaters.

Estimates will be updated Sunday morning.