Emmy Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Post-Nominations Read of the Race

Emmy Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Post-Nominations Read of the Race

A note from Scott: It has been a few weeks since the Primetime Emmy nominations were announced on July 15, and we are exactly one week away from the Aug. 18 start of the final round of voting, so now seemed as good a time as any to provide my latest read of dozens of…

A note from Scott: It has been a few weeks since the Primetime Emmy nominations were announced on July 15, and we are exactly one week away from the Aug. 18 start of the final round of voting, so now seemed as good a time as any to provide my latest read of dozens of the highest-profile races. But first, a little context…

Since we last checked in, the best talk series category was jolted by CBS’ controversial decision to cancel The Late Show With Stephen Colbert and President Donald Trump’s public celebration of that news. Prior to that, my sense was that the defending winner, Comedy Central’s The Daily Show, was poised to win again. But since then, Stephen Colbert’s late night competitors have rallied behind him —several of those show’s hosts were in the audience at his first taping after the news was announced, and ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live!, a fellow best talk series nominee, even took out a billboard proclaiming, “I’m voting for Stephen!” This doesn’t mean that The Late Show is a sure-thing to win —after all, the show will not go off the air until next May, meaning that next Emmys cycle, not this one, will be the last one in which it will be eligible. But do voters know or care about that, or do they just want to give Colbert a pat on the back and Trump the middle finger? We will see.

Meanwhile, Apple TV+’s The Studio and Netflix’s Adolescence are looking very strong in the comedy series and limited series categories, respectively. But the drama races are looking much more competitive. True, Apple TV+’s Severance garnered the most noms of any show this season, with 27, and one has to go back to 2017 to find a show that led or co-led the drama fieldin nominations but did not win best drama series (HBO’s Westworld, which had 22 noms, lost to Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, which had just 13). But make no mistake about it: There is a lot of love out there for HBO Max’s The Pitt, and — for now — I still have The Pitt and its leading man, Noah Wyle (nominated for the first time in 26 years, since he was last up for ER), edging out Severance and its leading man, Adam Scott (who is also wonderful, and also happens to have joined me on the episode of my Awards Chatter podcast that posted earlier Monday).

If, however, Apple TV+ pulls out a best drama series win for Severance and a best comedy series win for The Studio, that would really be something —the last time one platform took home both of those prizes was nine years ago, when HBO won with Game of Thrones and Veep, respectively.

Lastly, I’ll direct you to a soon-to-post episode of the venerable Top Docs podcast for my detailed explanation of why I’m forecasting what I’m forecasting in the nonfiction categories.

Until next week…

Remember: You can bookmark this page and return to it for Scott’s latest picks. Excepting holidays and breaking news events, it will be updated on Mondays. Think of Scott like a meteorologist: his aim is to forecast what will happen, not to advocate for what he thinks should happen. His projections are arrived at by screening shows, analyzing campaigns, consulting voters and referencing history.

🎧 Awards Chatter podcast episode (click to listen)

Best Drama Series