Critics Choice Awards Analysis: Are One Battle, Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan Wins Reliable Oscar Bellwethers?

A lot of attention is being paid to the results of Sunday evening’s Critics Choice Awards, from which I have just returned home. Among the most notable: One Battle After Another was recognized with best picture, best director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and best adapted screenplay (Anderson) prizes, while Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet won best actor and Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley won best actress and, in outcomes that were less widely predicted, best supporting actor went to Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi and best supporting actress went to Weapons’ Amy Madigan.

To all of the above individuals, congratulations on well-deserved recognition! But the question on everyone’s mind —including, I’m sure, theirs — is this: do the results of the Critics Choice Awards actually tend to predict the results of the Academy Awards? The answer is tricky…

Critics Choice Award winners are determined by some 600 critics and journalists who are members of the Critics Choice Association (full disclosure: I’m one of them), whereas Oscar winners are determined by some 11,000 people who actually work on films. Plus, the vast majority of CCA members are based in America, whereas one-quarter of Academy members are based outside of the country. In other words, there is virtually no overlap between the membership of the two groups, save for Leonard Maltin.

That being said, because the Critics Choice Awards is the first major televised awards show of the season, coverage of its winners — via the live broadcast andsubsequently in articles, photographs, social media posts and the like —reaches quite a few Academy members, and may, consciously or not, shape their thinking about what/who is worthy of their time (they have to decide which movies to prioritize watching) and support as they head in to the Oscar nomination voting window of Jan. 12-16.

But on that note, one needs to remember that most critics and journalists who cover film see, as part of their job, everything, or at least a lot more films than most Academy members, especially since the Academy’s recent influx of people who are younger and still highly active in their careers, leaving them less time to, well, watch movies. As a result, the CCA tends to spread its votes around a lot of projects (it also has six nominees in most categories, while the Academy has only five), whereas the Academy tends to do a lot more coattail voting (ticking off people from the same film straight down the ballot).

In some years, the CCA truly is an early indicator of which way the wind is blowing — last year, for instance, it was the first major awards body to give its top prize to Anora, two days before the Producers Guild and Directors Guild did the same, followed by the Academy. And in some years, the CCA and the Academy agree of a lot of things —eight years ago, both groups picked the exact same winners for their their six highest-profile awards — best picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor and supporting actress.

Most of the time, though, the groups diverge, in those six categories, on at least one or two categories, so I decided to put under the microscope the past decade of results to see what they tell us…

Best picture
Overlaps: Six — Spotlight, The Shape of Water, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer and Anora
Splits: Four —CCA went with La La Land, Academy went with Moonlight; CCA went with Roma, Academy went with Green Book; CCA went with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Academy went with Parasite; CCA went with The Power of the Dog, Academy went with CODA
Pattern: To me, the interesting splits are the two in which there was a marked difference between the winners: see Roma/Green Brook and The Power of the Dog/CODA. CCA went with the highbrow choice, while the Academy went with the populist choice. This makes sense given not only the groups’ different constituencies, but also that the CCA uses a straight vote to pick its best picture winners, which can redound to the benefit of a polarizing film, whereas the Academy employs a preferential ballot, which boosts films that most people at least like.
Bottom line: I suppose One Battle could be vulnerable to some of the same things that probably derailed two other critical and commercial successes between the Critics Choice Awards and the Oscars, La La Land (the challenge of maintaining frontrunner status through a long season) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (a non-English-language of wide appeal). Plus, Sinners and Hamnet should both fare pretty well on the Academy’s preferential ballot. But, on the heels of three consecutive years in which the two groups overlapped on their best picture winner, the smartest Oscar bet remains One Battle.

Best director
Overlaps: Eight — La La Land’s Damien Chazelle, The Shape of Water’s Guillermo del Toro, Roma’s Alfonso Cuarón, Parasite’s Bong Joon-ho (tied with 1917’s Sam Mendes), Nomadland’s Chloé Zhao, The Power of the Dog’s Jane Campion, Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert and Oppenheimer’s Christopher Nolan
Splits: Two — CCA went with Mad Max: Fury Road’s George Miller, Academy went with The Revenant’s Alejandro G. Inarritu; and CCA went with Wicked’s Jon M. Chu, Academy went with Anora’s Sean Baker
Pattern: Both groups tend to treat this award as a place to recognize the filmmaker who had the greatest directorial challenge and/or is overdue (e.g. Cuarón, del Toro, Campion, Nolan).
Bottom line: PTA — who is revered by fellow filmmakers, is certainly overdue for an Oscar, and is not exactly asking for pity votes for a so-so film with One Battle— is very likely to repeat at the Oscars. In fact, I think he is even likelier to win best director than his film is to win best picture. Plus, there’s a very real chance that Oscar voters will choose to recognize his primary competitors, Hamnet’s Chloe Zhao and Sinners’ Ryan Coogler, with the best adapted screenplay and best original screenplay awards, respectively, so all three would take home statuettes.

Best actor
Overlaps: Seven —The Revenant’s Leonardo DiCaprio, Manchester by the Sea’s Casey Affleck, Darkest Hour’s Gary Oldman, Joker’s Joaquin Phoenix, King Richard’s Will Smith, The Whale’s Brendan Fraser and The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody
Splits: Three — CCA went with Vice’s Christian Bale, Academy went with Bohemian Rhapsody’s Rami Malek; CCA went with Black Panther’s Chadwick Boseman, Academy went with The Father’s Anthony Hopkins; and CCA went with The Holdovers’ Paul Giamatti, Academy went with Oppenheimer’s Cillian Murphy
Pattern: None discernible.
Bottom line: Chalamet gives the performance of his career in Marty Supreme, and could well be on his way to a repeat of his Critics Choice win at the Oscars, where he would be up for best actor for the second year in a row and third time overall. I don’t think that one can make a stronger argument for the prospects of anyone else at this time. But I would just caution that the Academy has only once, in nearly a century of the Oscars, given its best actor prize to someone younger than Chalamet, who just turned 30 (Adrien Brody, who was 29 when he won for The Pianist). Fairly or not, many Academy members feel that someone that young will have other chances in the future, and elect to instead reward someone with a larger body of work. Could Chalamet be derailed by One Battle’s Leonardo DiCaprio, even though DiCaprio already has a best actor Oscar to his name, because One Battle seems to have been more widely embraced by Oscar voters than Marty Supreme? Or by The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, on the back of significant international support? Or by Sinners’ Michael B. Jordan, who had as challenging an assignment as anyone, playing twins? Or by Blue Moon’s Ethan Hawke, who has been around a long time and never been recognized? Time will tell.

Best actress
Overlaps: Five —Room’s Brie Larson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’s Frances McDormand, Judy’s Renée Zellweger, The Eyes of Tammy Faye’s Jessica Chastain and Poor Things’ Emma Stone
Splits: Five —CCA went with Jackie’s Natalie Portman, Academy went with La La Land’s Emma Stone; CCA went with The Wife’s Glenn Close and A Star Is Born’s Lady Gaga (tie), Academy went with The Favourite’s Olivia Colman; CCA went with Promising Young Woman’s Carey Mulligan, Academy went with Nomadland’s Frances McDormand; CCA went with Tár’s Cate Blanchett, Academy went with Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Michelle Yeoh; and CCA went with The Substance’s Demi Moore, Academy went with Anora’s Mikey Madison
Pattern: Here is where we can really see evidence of coattail voting by Academy members —in every instance of a split, the CCA’s pick was either (a) not in a best picture nominee and lost at the Oscars to someone who was or (b) was in a best picture nominee and lost at the Oscars to someone from a more popular best picture nominee.
Bottom line: The good news for Buckley is that there are only two films that might be regarded as stronger best picture contenders than Hamnet — One Battle and Sinners —and they have only one best actress contender between them, Chase Infiniti, who makes her big screen debut in One Battle. For Infiniti, who is just 25, a nom would be a win. Buckley’s path looks pretty clear.

Best supporting actor
Overlaps: Nine —Moonlight’s Mahershala Ali, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’s Sam Rockwell, Green Book’s Mahershala Ali, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s Brad Pitt, Judas and the Black Messiah’s Daniel Kaluuya, CODA’s Troy Kotsur, Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Ke Huy Quan, Oppenheimer’s Robert Downey Jr. and A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin
Splits: One — CCA went with Creed’s Sylvester Stallone, Academy went with Bridge of Spies’ Mark Rylance
Pattern: The last nine Critics Choice and Oscar winners in this category overlapped, which is a pretty remarkable track record. Both groups seem drawn to breakthrough performers (e.g. Ali, Kotsur and Kaluuya) and overdue veterans (e.g. Rockwell, Pitt and Downey), whether or not they are in best picture winners (of the overlapping nine, five were and four weren’t).
Bottom line: Critics Choice winner Elordi is certainly a breakthrough performer, and there is nothing that the Academy loves and tends to reward more than a good-looking person who undergoes a giant physical transformation for a part that leaves them looking less good-looking, as he did, so there’s a certain logic to him winning. But only one person younger than the 28-year-old has ever won an Oscar in this category —Ordinary People’s Timothy Hutton, who was just 20 — in part because, I suspect, one can only have made so many relationships in the business at such a young age. That’s a big part of why I would still look out, at the Oscars, for Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård, who most expected to win at the Critics Choice Awards. The 74-year-old is a well-liked and respected veteran who, like Elordi, is central to a likely best picture nominee, but unlike Elordi, has worked with countless fellow filmmakers all across the world over the course of his decades-long career. Consider the number of collaborators he has had on just the MCU, Pirates of the Caribbean, Mamma Mia! and Dune film franchises!

Best supporting actress
Overlaps: Eight —The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander, Fences’ Viola Davis, I, Tonya’s Allison Janney, If Beale Street Could Talk’s Regina King, Marriage Story’s Laura Dern, West Side Story’s Ariana DeBose, The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Emilia Pérez’s Zoë Saldaña
Splits: Two — CCA went with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova, Academy went with Minari’s Youn Yuh-jung; and CCA went with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s Angela Bassett, Academy went Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Jamie Lee Curtis
Pattern: None discernible.
Bottom line: For Wicked: For Good’s Ariana Grande and One Battle’s Teyana Taylor, losing at the Critics Choice Awards to Madigan has to hurt, because members of the Academy are even more inclined than members of the CCA to reward a veteran. In other words, if Madigan can beat them here, she can beat them there. Moving forward, the best hope for Grande and/or Taylor is that they will benefit from coattail voting —their films are likelier to be nominated for best picture than Madigan’s is —but even that may not be enough to help them overcome Madigan’s “overdue” narrative: the 75-year-old, who has given dozens of memorable performances, but received her only prior Oscar nomination 40 years ago, says movie offers had largely dried up for her as she got older, and she had basically come to terms with being out of the game —but then she got offered an off-the-wall part, took a huge swing and is now winning awards for it.