THRs Emmy Predictions: What Should Happen vs. What Will

COMEDY

Best Series

ANGIE HAN I can’t imagine Hacks not finding a spot here, but my heart is with the inventive newcomers — shows like David E. Kelley’s bighearted Margo’s Got Money Troubles, Rebecca Cutter’s deliciously soapy The Hunting Wives, Katie Dippold’s genre-bending Widow’s Bay, Tim Robinson’s The Chair Company and, maybe most of all, Sterlin Harjo’s immaculately vibey The Lowdown.

Lead Actor

DANIEL FIENBERG No offense to the stars of Only Murders in the Building and other familiar names and past winners (Steve Carell, Jeremy Allen White, etc.), but this could be an extremely bland category. Voters can save it by honoring Ethan Hawke’s messy gumshoe charm from The Lowdown, Matthew Rhys’ impeccable blending of comedy and horror in Widow’s Bay and the heightened discomfort delivered by Tim Robinson in The Chair Company. Then maybe acknowledge Tracy Morgan in the perfectly tailored The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as an unlikely superhero/actor in Wonder Man and Seth Rogen, who is better in Platonic than the show he won for last year.

Lead Actress

HAN Jean Smart has won this award every year Hacks has been eligible, and I don’t hate the very real possibility she finishes five-for-five. I’d also be glad to see returning faves Quinta Brunson of Abbott Elementary and Ayo Edebiri of The Bear back in the mix. My personal favorite in this category, however, is a newcomer: Kate O’Flynn, so specifically and hilariously weird in Widow’s Bay.

Supporting Actor

FIENBERG Harrison Ford’s gruffly comic fragility in Shrinking continues to be the best work of his career, and he could have won last year and deserves to win this year. Add rugged and reliable character actors Nick Offerman (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) and Keith David (The Lowdown), Daniel Radcliffe’s endlessly game Reggie Dinkins weirdness and another season of droll excellence from Abbott Elementary star Tyler James Williams.

Supporting Actress

HAN I anticipate a lot of familiar faces in this field, including Hannah Einbinder from Hacks and Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph from Abbott Elementary, and I’d certainly be happy to see any of them in the race. But there ought to be room as well for Erika Alexander, bringing her comic A game to Reggie Dinkins; Poorna Jagannathan, possibly the coolest woman alive on Deli Boys; and Ashley Padilla, Saturday Night Live’s reliably and outrageously funny breakout.

DRAMA

Best Series

FIENBERG The Pitt is close to an inevitable winner, especially since the two best new dramas in this category — Pluribus and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms — are both absolutely comedies. Slot in The Diplomat and Slow Horses, reliable if only occasionally remarkable entries, and there’s very little room left. Either stick with that approach and nominate Dark Winds or go with the more audacious but more uneven Alien: Earth.

Lead Actor

HAN Given that the field this year isn’t especially strong, I wouldn’t mind seeing a repeat for The Pitt’s Noah Wyle. Among newbies, The Audacity’s Billy Magnussen and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms’ Peter Claffey would be worthwhile additions. Finally, while the final season of The Boys was nowhere near the show’s strongest, I wish Antony Starr some recognition for his work as one of the more skin-crawlingly odious fictional villains to emerge in recent years.

Lead Actress

FIENBERG You start with Rhea Seehorn, giving the year’s best star turn as the centerpiece of Pluribus. Then add Zendaya’s exhausting yet playful Euphoria performance, Keri Russell keeping her intellectual wheels spinning in The Diplomat, plus Carrie Coon’s masterful Gilded Age scheming, and this is a marquee category before finding room for A-listers Michelle Pfeiffer, retaining emotional rawness in the otherwise sloppy The Madison, and Emma Thompson, bringing brains and swagger to Down Cemetery Road.

Supporting Actor

HAN This category is an embarrassment of riches whose gems are scattered across a variety of mostly excellent shows, including Ken Leung’s tragicomic finance bro and Kit Harington’s spoiled man-baby in Industry, Gerran Howell’s Dr. Robby heir apparent and Patrick Ball’s prodigal son in The Pitt, Carlos Manuel Vesga’s solitary traveler in Pluribus, Tom Pelphrey’s soulful criminal in Task, Babou Ceesay’s occasionally heartbreaking cyborg and Samuel Blenkin’s slimy tech baron in Alien: Earth, and Dexter Sol Ansell’s mysterious sidekick in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.

Supporting Actress

FIENBERG Look, Katherine LaNasa should have been bumped to lead actor to make room for more appropriately “supporting” Pitt co-stars Isa Briones, Sepideh Moafi and Supriya Ganesh, but LaNasa is where she is and deserves a nomination. Sydney Sweeney deserves something for all of the high-wire psychosexual chaos Sam Levinson put her through on Euphoria. From there, make room for Karolina Wydra, in a very tricky and indescribable Pluribus role; Allison Janney as the ultimate sparring partner in The Diplomat; and Amanda Peet, constantly threatening to steal Your Friends and Neighbors entirely.

LIMITED SERIES/ANTHOLOGY/TV MOVIE

Best Series

FIENBERG The limited series category could be a struggle this year. I love the ambition, if not always the execution, of the second season of Netflix’s Beef and the examination of acting and identity in Amazon’s Bait. Netflix also has a pair of strong four-hour adaptations in the harrowing Lord of the Flies and the darkly comic political tragedy of Death by Lightning. More than anything, though, I’d urge voters to go through the tonal journey of DTF St. Louis, which goes from coarse and broad to a sentimental examination of male fragility, with a murder mystery tacked on.

Lead Actor

FIENBERG I worry that Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen will cannibalize each other’s Death by Lightning support and that Jamie Bell and Mitchell Robertson and Paul Bettany and Will Sharpe may do the same in Half Man and Amadeus, respectively. All would be worthy, but leave room for Riz Ahmed’s exquisite Bait self-parody, as well as Jason Clarke (Murdaugh: Death in the Family) and Michael Chernus (Devil in Disguise: John Wayne Gacy) offering a reminder that true-crime performances can be subtle and complex rather than scary and hammy.

Lead Actress

HAN Say what you will about Love Story — I, for one, am ready to be done with the whole Kennedy myth — but they nailed it with the casting of Sarah Pidgeon, who exudes dazzling charisma and earthy likability all at once as Carolyn Bessette. In very different kinds of love stories, I also adored Camila Morrone’s bloody take on pre-wedding jitters in Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen, Sally Field’s raw portrait of grief in Remarkably Bright Creatures and Rachel Weisz’s sly and sexy turn in Vladimir.

Supporting Actor

HAN Lotta exciting dyads in this category, including Richard Gadd and Stuart Campbell as the violently intense Ruben on Half Man, and David Harbour and Jason Bateman as sexually frustrated BFFs on
DTF St. Louis. I would reserve slots for Charles Melton as Beef’s resident himbo and Nick Offerman as a funny/bittersweet Chester A. Arthur in Death by Lightning. Finally, I’d pick two guys who delighted me by doing what they do best: Jake Lacy as a nice-guy jerk in All Her Fault and Jimmy Tatro as a scene-stealing dim bulb in Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice.

Supporting Actress

FIENBERG Provided Cailee Spaeny and Youn Yuh-jung of Beef, one hilariously descending into awfulness and the other conveying understated menace, and DTF St. Louis star Linda Cardellini are in the conversation, I’ll be tolerant of the inevitable nominations for Naomi Watts (Love Story) and Lesley Manville and Laurie Metcalf (Monster: The Ed Gein Story), who are all very good and very one-dimensional.

This story appeared in the June 16 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.