Survivor pool strategy: Colts, Patriots among top options in Week 8

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you’ve made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.

The season of chalk hit its apex in Week 7, as 93% of remaining entries survived last week. There have only been five upsets by at least six-point underdogs all season, the second fewest through Week 7 in the Super Bowl era (2005).

The worst teams in the NFL have not been winning this season. Seven teams have separated from the pack as the worst teams in the NFL: the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins. There is a bigger gap between the No. 25 and No. 26 teams than the No. 13 and No. 25 teams, according to ESPN Analytics.

The Titans rank last, and they are the top team to fade in Week 8. They visit the Indianapolis Colts, who are on pace for the highest offensive success rate by any team this century. The Colts are by far the biggest favorites of the week, and there’s little reason to pivot elsewhere.

If you have used the Colts, it is a much tougher choice, with the Patriots and Falcons getting a slight edge.

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Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

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Not only are the Colts the largest favorites this week, both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics have this as one of the two most lopsided matchups the rest of the season. They have only two remaining games against teams below .500 (both vs. the Houston Texans), so their future value is limited. Our two models give the Colts an 89% chance to win this week, with no other game above 74%.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 83%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 96%

• ESPN BET line: Colts -14.5 (-1600 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected

Combining ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay’s model, the Patriots are the second-biggest favorites this week. However, the Patriots still face the Jets twice and the Dolphins at home in Week 18, so there should be several more opportunities to use the Patriots. One bonus to using New England now is that they are selected in only 5% of entries, but that is likely to rise.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 68%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 82%

• ESPN BET line: Patriots -6.5 (-400 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected

The Dolphins have joined the group of inept teams at the bottom of the NFL, ranking last in defensive EPA per play. They’re not much better offensively, ranking No. 24 overall this season and No. 28 since the Tyreek Hill injury. This is the Falcons’ easiest game on paper until Week 18, making this a strong combination of win probability and lack of future value. Just make sure to monitor Michael Penix Jr.’s injury status.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 62%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 73%

• ESPN BET line: Falcons -7.5 (-425 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 10% selected

A couple of weeks ago, this game had potential to be the top pick of Week 8. But after the Giants’ upset over the Eagles in Week 6 and near-win over the Denver Broncos last week, the Giants are up to the No. 17 team according to ESPN Analytics. However, this is still the second-easiest remaining game on the Eagles’ schedule, and the only easier game comes in a week with many more strong choices (Week 15). Since 2000, when one team loses as a seven-point favorite, they are 47-25 against the spread in the rematch, so teams like the Eagles typically respond in this spot.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 61%

• ESPN BET line: Eagles -7.5 (-425 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected

The last spot comes down to the Buccaneers or Bengals. Both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics rate the Bengals as a bottom-5 team in the NFL and smaller favorites than the spread indicates, so as bad as the Jets are, the Buccaneers have a higher win probability in both models. The only other time they face a bottom-tier team is in Week 14, also against the Saints. The Bengals have no future value as long as Joe Flacco plays, but if Joe Burrow comes back, they have a couple appealing matchups down the stretch.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 73%

• ESPN BET line: Buccaneers -3.5 (-210 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 18% selected

Other options:

Official picks

Projected Path