🏈 2026 NFL draft: Five-team race for top pick

The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is taking shape after 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Five teams have at least a 5% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises after midseason.

Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each of the five teams’ schedules the rest of the way. Dan Graziano answered how the No. 1 pick could impact each team’s current QB room. Our NFL Nation reporters looked at the biggest positional needs that could be addressed in the first round in April. Matt Miller spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it landed that top selection. And finally, Ben Solak rated each team’s “excitement factor” on a 1-10 scale (with 10 being the most excited) if they picked No. 1 overall.

Let’s start with the Titans, who currently have the best odds at the first overall pick.

Jump to a team:
CLE | LV | NO | NYJ | TEN

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 36.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.3%

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

It will get easier, though I suppose that might not be a good thing for Tennessee now. After having played the hardest schedule in the NFL to this point, the Titans have the 18th-hardest slate remaining, per the FPI. The Titans aren’t favored in any games, but there are two contests very close to a coin flip: at the Browns in Week 14 and versus the Saints in Week 17. Other than that, the Titans are at least 6-point underdogs in every game. — Walder

What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Cam Ward?

Help! Having the No. 1 pick and not needing a quarterback is a fantastic position for a team to be in. The Titans could either use the pick on the best non-quarterback in the draft, which would improve the team around Ward for the future, or they could trade it for a haul of picks to a QB-needy team and use the added draft capital to continue building around Ward. — Graziano

What is their biggest need right now?

Edge rusher. Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson deserves credit for how he has manufactured a pass rush with so few true impact players. Still, Tennessee’s 22 sacks this season rank 22nd in the league. Outside of Jeffery Simmons, there is no defensive player who poses a significant threat to opposing offenses. The Titans don’t have a single player on the roster who has logged a double-digit sack season. Adding a game changer to come off the edge and make big plays when it matters the most would help the defense immensely. The last edge rusher drafted by Tennessee in the first round was Derrick Morgan, who was selected 16th in 2010. — Turron Davenport

Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?

Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. might not solve the team’s issues on offense, but he does bring a three-down ability as a true edge defender who can rush the passer and stop the run. Tennessee has to find someone who threatens opposing offenses. Bain’s ability to win with powerful hands and closing speed would fit in any scheme that the Titans’ new head coach and defensive coordinator want to run. In a draft that is light on elite offensive skill players, Bain is where value meets need. — Miller

How would you rate the excitement factor of Tennessee landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?

A sneaky 6. While the Titans would certainly not take a quarterback, I think the top of this QB class is strong enough that we could see a substantial trade up for the No. 1 pick, especially if the Browns or Jets are at No. 2. A trade up to the top pick is entertainment in the moment, as rumors swirl and hypothetical packages are considered, and entertainment for years to come, as the trade is eternally reexamined. — Solak

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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 26.9%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 82.6%

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

They’re favored by FPI in one game (vs. Titans in Week 14) and head to Las Vegas in Week 12, which could be a possible victory. FPI makes the Browns at least a 7-point underdog in all of their other remaining contests, however. The Browns do play five of their final eight games at home, so their slate is a shade easier than it seems just looking at their opponents.

What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders?

Probably the end of the road in terms of their chances to be the Browns’ long-term starter. Unless one of those guys makes it clear over the second half of this season that he can be the franchise QB, the Browns would almost certainly use the No. 1 pick on a QB they believe could be just that. Maybe one of them would stick around as a backup? Or start while the rookie gets up to speed? But that would be about it. — Graziano

What is their biggest need right now?

Quarterback. The Browns have already cycled through two quarterbacks and appear likely to go to a third in Sanders at some point. The infrastructure around the quarterbacks hasn’t been solid, but Cleveland hasn’t gotten enough production at the position to dissuade the franchise from targeting a passer in the first round. Browns QBs have registered a 29.1 Total QBR this season, which ranks only above the Titans. — Daniel Oyefusi

Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has emerged as the top senior quarterback thanks to his accuracy, timing and poise in the pocket. He isn’t a true dual threat, but he has picked up five scores on the ground and keeps defenses on their toes with his mobility. At 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, he has the frame and arm talent to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball downfield. His 26-to-5 ratio in touchdowns to interceptions also shows a quarterback willing to take chances while limiting turnovers. Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore are options to keep an eye on, but both are first-year starters in an era where NFL scouts like to see at least 25 starts from incoming prospects. That leaves Mendoza as the clear-cut option. — Miller

How would you rate the excitement factor of Cleveland landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?

Tell me again why I should be excited about another Browns pick for a quarterback? Cleveland is a good candidate to quickly leap in relevance with a strong rookie passer, as that defense is ready to shred (and has been for years). But I’ve done one too many cycles of “this guy is the guy!” in Cleveland to be enthused about doing it again. If I’m that jaded, imagine how Browns fans feel. — Solak

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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 69.2%

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

They aren’t favored by FPI in any games, but there are several where the Jets could stumble into a win: versus the Falcons in Week 13, versus the Dolphins in Week 14 and at the Saints in Week 16. The wild card is Week 18 in Buffalo. Normally that would be one of the most likely losses of the season, but it’s possible the Bills could be locked in to their playoff seeding and rest their starters. If that’s the case, the Jets could stumble into another win and hurt their draft capital. — Walder

What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Justin Fields?

I’m not sure Fields is long for New York regardless of whether the Jets take a QB in the draft. But if they end up with the No. 1 pick — and assuming Fields’ performance doesn’t do a complete 180 in the final eight weeks of the season — I have to believe they’d use it to draft his replacement. Fields wouldn’t walk away empty-handed, though, as $10 million of his $20 million 2026 salary is fully guaranteed. — Graziano

What is their biggest need right now?

Quarterback, quarterback and quarterback. Did we mention they need a quarterback? Fields is under contract for 2026, but he looks like a lame duck. The Jets have five first-round picks over the 2026 and 2027 drafts, so they should be able to target a player and go get him. Perhaps it will be a veteran. If they decide to wait until the 2027 draft to address the position, the top needs right now are wide receiver and defensive tackle. — Rich Cimini

Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?

Mendoza remains the top quarterback, and like the Browns, the Jets will be vying for position to secure QB1. Coach Aaron Glenn wants a QB with mobility, which is why the team went all-in on Fields, and Dante Moore might be a better scheme fit than Mendoza. Moore’s ability to throw on the move and his overall athletic traits are at a higher level than Mendoza’s. The biggest question will be his limited starts in college, with five at UCLA in 2023 before this season. Mendoza probably gets the nod based on experience level, as the Jets need a quarterback who can play right away. — Miller

How would you rate the excitement factor of New York landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?

4. The Jets will probably do the smart but boring thing next offseason: Commit to a veteran quarterback by mid-March. There goes the drama. There is a non-zero chance, given how long-term the Jets’ rebuild seems to be, that they are willing to both take a quarterback with the pick or trade the pick away for a competitive offer. That does give this hypothetical an additional layer of fun. — Solak

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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.7%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 63.3%

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

The bad (?) news is the Saints have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. That features two games in which FPI makes them narrow favorites — versus the Jets in Week 16 and at Titans in Week 17 — but it doesn’t end there. Pretty much every single game for the Saints outside of their Week 14 contest at the Buccaneers could be a feasible victory. — Walder

What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterbacks Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler?

I think a lot of that depends on what Shough shows them over the rest of the season. He was the No. 40 pick this year, which is pretty high and doesn’t rule out the possibility that he could be their long-term answer. So if Shough finishes the season strong and convinces the Saints to stick with him, they could use the No. 1 pick to build around him by making the pick or trading it for more assets. And if he struggles, they could certainly use it to select his replacement and keep Shough or Rattler around as the backup. — Graziano

What is their biggest need right now?

Wide receiver. Amid their evaluation of Shough, the Saints have needs at every position. Wide receiver is near the top of that list, as the Saints just traded Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks. While Chris Olave says the Saints have approached him about an extension, getting a top wideout, whether or not he is there beyond 2026, will be vital to reviving a struggling offense. — Katherine Terrell

Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?

Wide receiver is absolutely the biggest need, but the best pass catcher in this class hasn’t risen to No. 1 pick status. Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson is a top-10 prospect, but he lacks the elite measurables to buck the trend of receivers not being drafted No. 1 overall — Keyshawn Johnson was the last No. 1 pick at WR in 1996. With that option off the table, the Saints would most likely look at the defense if they stick with Shough. Ohio State hybrid defender Arvell Reese would spark a defense that still misses Trey Hendrickson. Reese can play both stack linebacker and off the edge as a pass rusher. Some scouts I’ve talked to already consider Reese the top player in the class, seeing upside similar to when Micah Parsons was a prospect. — Miller

How would you rate the excitement factor of New Orleans landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?

A healthy 7. Shough played the best game of his very young career Sunday and repeat performances would likely secure him the job for 2026. But he was a second-round pick at quarterback, and such selections rarely stave off a first overall option. Depending on how the season runs out, the Saints could trade the pick away (fun) or keep the pick while looking to move Shough and Rattler (also fun). — Solak

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FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.0%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 54.1%

What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?

The Raiders are favored only versus the Browns in Week 12, but they have a couple of other games that they could potentially win. Specifically, two home matchups against the Cowboys (next Monday) and Giants (Week 17). One question will be if the Chiefs are in a position to rest their starters in Week 18. If they are, that could set up an easy matchup in the final week of the season. — Walder

What would landing the No. 1 pick mean for quarterback Geno Smith?

Probably the end of his time in Las Vegas. If the Raiders get the No. 1 pick, that almost certainly means Smith won’t have turned his season around and the Raiders could be looking at a lot of changes, including at quarterback. Smith does have $18.5 million in guaranteed salary coming in 2026 no matter what, and another $8 million becomes fully guaranteed if he’s still on the roster on the third day of the league year next March. But because of the way the Raiders handle bonus structure in their veteran contracts, that $18.5 million is all the dead money they’d have to carry on their 2026 salary cap for Smith if they cut him before the third day of the league year. — Graziano

What is their biggest need right now?

Defensive end. The Raiders need a succession plan for Smith. However, the Raiders are unable to take one of the top quarterbacks in this class, they need to address the defensive line. Las Vegas’ pass rush has been among its deficiencies in 2025. The Raiders are 25th in sacks (18) and 30th in pressure rate (27%). Maxx Crosby has been solid this season, but he needs help. — Ryan McFadden

Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?

Here’s another team where Reese is a dream fit. The Raiders have struggled to find Crosby a good running mate in previous drafts and free agency, but Reese’s speed and power would match the relentlessness that Crosby plays with. Teams have to plan around winning their division, and it makes sense to build a defense that can attack the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert and the Broncos’ Bo Nix. Yes, quarterback is a clear and obvious need, but Ryan is right that the defense has to be built in order for the Raiders to win. — Miller

How would you rate the excitement factor of Las Vegas landing the top pick on a scale of 1-10?

5. Given how sharply Smith’s play has tailed off this season, the Raiders must make a future quarterback investment. But given coach Pete Carroll’s history of winning with defense and developing Day 2 quarterbacks (like Smith, as well as Russell Wilson), I could see the Raiders staying here and making the hero call on a defensive player. They’d certainly be the hardest team to figure out if they get the top pick. — Solak