Conference finals preview: Can Müller lead the Caps to MLS Cup?

Now that the Philadelphia Union, FC Cincinnati, LAFC and Minnesota United FC are splitting time between the couch and the golf course, MLS is down to its final four.

Inter Miami CF are peaking at the right time, New York City FC caused another upset, the Vancouver Whitecaps won a star-studded shootout, while San Diego FC‘s magical inaugural season continued. That sets up this year’s conference finals: Miami vs. NYCFC, and San Diego vs. Vancouver.

So how will Saturday’s matchups go down? ESPN asked Lizzy Becherano and Jon Arnold to assess the postseason forms of our final four, and asked them — along with the rest of our U.S. soccer staff — to predict who will move on to MLS Cup.

Eastern Conference

3. Inter Miami vs. 5. New York City FC
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET

Star attraction: One hates to sound repetitive, but Lionel Messi will continue to be the star attraction for as long as he’s in MLS. He continues to prove his worth with every passing game, scoring one goal and three assists against FC Cincinnati to stand as the most important player for Miami on the pitch. He’s contributed to 76% of Inter Miami’s goals in the past seven games. In other words, Messi has either scored or assisted on 19 of the team’s past 25 goals.

Messi alone can work through any defender, but more recently he has proven his ability to make those around him better in the final third. The 38-year-old recently set up Mateo Silvetti and Tadeo Allende on multiple occasions, using his capacity of reading the field to coax the best out of his teammates.

X-factor: Internal sirens went off when Luis Suárez received a one-game suspension for the decisive final game of the Round 1 series against Nashville SC. Head coach Javier Mascherano opted to include Silvetti in the lineup to cover, trusting the 19-year-old Argentina youth international who only boasted five appearances since arriving in August.

That gamble paid off against Nashville, and again against Cincinnati.

Silvetti recorded a goal and an assist to stand as an integral part of the team’s attacking efforts, utilizing his speed and precision to propel Inter Miami to victory. Even more impressive, Silvetti found a way to quickly establish a connection with Messi on the field to ensure both players shine in the final third. If Silvetti can respond to Messi’s long passes into the area and vision of the game, there’s no stopping Inter.

Tactical wrinkle: The result will depend on how Mascherano lines up Inter Miami. It’s difficult to believe that the coach will make changes to a team he said performed “almost perfectly” in the games against Cincinnati and Nashville, but the situation may change if Suárez is in the picture.

Mascherano insisted that he chose to not include the Uruguayan veteran in his last XI because Cincinnati’s characteristics felt like a job more suited to Silvetti and Allende, but will NYCFC be a different story? Although Inter Miami look unstoppable at the moment with Messi performing his magic, Silvetti and Allende finding the back of the net with precision and ease, Suárez offers a different set of qualities that Mascherano may want to use. New York City must plan and prepare for two vastly different scenarios. — Becherano

Predictions

It’s difficult to imagine NYCFC disrupting the rhythm that Inter Miami have built up in the past two games. With Messi playing at this level, and those around him reaching maximum potential at this stage of the season, Miami is poised to win the Eastern Conference at Chase Stadium. — Becherano

Messi stole the show in Cincinnati, and from here on out, the Herons will be doing it in front of their home crowd. But it wasn’t just Messi that caught my eye in the conference semifinal. Silvetti validated Mascherano’s decision to put him in the XI, and Sergio Busquets turned back the clock to fluster Evander. He can do the same against a depleted NYCFC attack. — Arnold

The 2025 MLS Cup now looks to be Miami’s to lose. The Herons just have too much firepower for an NYCFC side that, while it managed to survive against Philadelphia, is just missing too many weapons to prevail against Miami. NYCFC goalkeeper Matt Freese will have to stand on his head for the Pigeons to have any hope. — Jeff Carlisle

There’s even more of a reason that NYCFC can’t win this one, right? For a limited roster that narrowly held onto a strained 1-0 victory over Philly in the last round, and needed Freese to make some huge saves in net, their odds are stacked even higher against Messi and friends. Lightning can’t strike the same spot twice, but we’ll see. — Cesar Hernandez

Freese will have his hands full with Messi & Co., and barring an absolute Hall of Fame-worthy performance, the Pigeons will be lucky to keep this scoreline respectable. After what we saw from the Herons against Cincinnati, it feels like nothing can stop Inter Miami from reaching this year’s final. — Megan Swanick

I’m not sure we’ve ever seen an MLS team hit a level as high as the one Inter Miami have hit in this year’s postseason. The secret sauce? Whether fueled by last season’s playoff embarrassment or by Mascherano’s coaching, Miami has finally put together a string of excellent defensive performances to pair with a best-in-class attack. Messi and friends will take care of business against New York City. — Joseph Lowery

Western Conference

1. San Diego FC vs. 2. Vancouver Whitecaps
Saturday, 9 p.m. ET

Star attraction: Leave it to a Bavarian to operate with quiet efficiency. While Thomas Müller‘s summer arrival made headlines, he has perhaps received less attention than Son Heung-Min, the LAFC star the Caps dispatched in a thrilling Western Conference semifinal last weekend. Part of that is the counting stats. Müller’s numbers aren’t bad, with nine goals and four assists between MLS play and Canadian Championship. Other big names have racked up larger numbers, especially in the playoffs, where Müller has just a goal so far this campaign, but the influence he has had has been on full display.

No player won more duels than Müller’s 14 in that throwdown with LAFC, he created a chance, forced Hugo Lloris into a save and also contributed by getting back on the defensive end. He can still contribute with goals or assists, but he’ll certainly have an impact on Saturday’s semifinal.

X-factor: San Diego fans were thrilled to welcome Hirving Lozano onto the field in the second half of the conference semifinal, a 1-0 win over Minnesota United. The Mexico winger played just one match in the November international window, having come out of El Tri‘s draw with Uruguay because of a hamstring issue. So, any minutes the team got from Lozano would be good minutes, but it has become increasingly common to see Lozano come off the bench.

Part of that is down to what Amahl Pellegrino has done in his stead, but it also came after Lozano was left off the squad for disciplinary reasons earlier this fall. That is in the past, but as the margins get tighter and tighter, these are the games in which San Diego may need to rely on its $10 million man and get attacking contributions that go beyond simply being happy he’s with the squad and fit for a few minutes.

With his speed, ability on the ball and the strong chemistry he forged with Anders Dreyer throughout the season, Lozano can be a player who changes the game — whether he does it from the opening whistle or is a super-sub the Whitecaps are terrified to see.

Tactical wrinkle: The Vancouver Whitecaps made it to the Concacaf Champions Cup final with a next-man-up mentality, and they’ll have to do the same to reach MLS Cup. Triston Blackmon saw a red card against LAFC, and manager Jesper Sørensen said Tuesday the club won’t bother appealing either yellow card the center back was issued. It’s a blow to lose him, but since he just returned from injury, the Caps have experience playing without him.

But the LAFC game also was costly for one of the players used to overcome his absence, with Belal Halbouni suffering a knee injury and having to abandon the field. That means Sørensen will likely need to move Mathías Laborda from left back to the middle to pair with Ralph Priso — himself a converted midfielder. That means a big responsibility for Joedrick Pupe or Tate Johnson at left back against Lozano, Dryer and/or Pellegrino. — Arnold

Predictions

Both clubs are having magical seasons, but one has to end. The multi-pronged San Diego attack, freed from the frustration of playing Minnesota United and against a Whitecaps team without Blackmon, will convert more of their opportunities and put the expansion team into the final. — Arnold

San Diego has certainly impressed throughout the regular season and playoffs, but experience may prove to be the decisive factor for the Western Conference final. It’ll be a tight match, but ultimately Vancouver’s players will better know how to maneuver the pressure and stakes of the final. — Becherano

There’s so much to like about the collective of both teams. In the playoffs for San Diego and Vancouver, we’ve also seen plenty of examples of the non-star players willing to step up just as much, if not more so, than the marquee names. The difference here will be minimal, but I’m going with the in-form Sebastian Berhalter as the game changer that will uplift the Whitecaps. — Hernandez

Blackmon’s suspension looms large over this matchup. If the Whitecaps defender was eligible, Vancouver would have a decent chance of coming out on top. But with Dreyer in top form, a home crowd behind them and Vancouver dinged up in other ways, San Diego will reach an MLS Cup final in its inaugural season. — Carlisle

Asking for a better, tighter matchup in the Western Conference final would be downright greedy. These are two excellent teams, with San Diego only getting my nod due to homefield advantage and the fact that the Caps will, once again, be playing without Blackmon after his sending off in the last round. The hosts will enjoy space to attack into and find themselves in MLS Cup. — Lowery

After battling past LAFC in the most entertaining test of the postseason, it feels like Vancouver is ready to cash in on being one of the most entertaining, dominant teams all year. Dreyer won’t be easy to stop, and San Diego can be compelling, but Vancouver has a certain aura about it now. — Swanick