Our guide to every Week 15 NFL game: Matchup previews, predictions and what's at stake
Dec 12, 2025, 06:00 AM ET The Week 15 NFL schedule for the 2025 season brings some exciting matchups. The Chargers seek their first sweep over the Chiefs since 2013, the Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with a win Sunday, and two of the best defenses in the league — Green Bay and…
The Week 15 NFL schedule for the 2025 season brings some exciting matchups.
The Chargers seek their first sweep over the Chiefs since 2013, the Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with a win Sunday, and two of the best defenses in the league — Green Bay and Denver — will battle it out. We could also see 44-year-old Philip Rivers make his Colts debut, as well as rookie QB Brady Cook‘s first start for the Jets.
We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. To top it off, we’ve included ramifications for each game — from playoff berths to positioning in the 2026 NFL draft.
Let’s get into the full Week 15 slate, which culminates with the “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Dolphins and Steelers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
LAC-KC | BUF-NE | BAL-CIN
ARI-HOU | LV-PHI | WSH-NYG
CLE-CHI | NYJ-JAX | DET-LAR
IND-SEA | GB-DEN | TEN-SF
CAR-NO | MIN-DAL | MIA-PIT
Thursday: ATL-TB
1 p.m. ET | CBS | KC -5.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: Los Angeles is looking to sweep the Chiefs for the first time since the 2013 season. A win would move the Chargers to double-digit victories for the second straight season under coach Jim Harbaugh and closer to catching the Broncos, who have a two-game lead in the AFC West. “It’s the biggest game of the season,” Harbaugh said. He continued: “Everybody’s fighting for their playoff lives, fighting for their football lives.” — Kris Rhim
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: With no margin for error, the Chiefs enter Sunday’s game hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive — at least for another week. “We’re in unprecedented territory,” said QB Patrick Mahomes, who has never missed the playoffs in his nine-year career. “I think you lean on the guys that have battled through adversity and came out better on the other side. That’s [DT] Chris [Jones], [TE] Travis [Kelce], all of these guys that have won championships. It hasn’t always been pretty, but it’ll really test us to see what type of character we have. I think we got the guys in the room to do it.” — Nate Taylor
Stat to know: The Chiefs are 1-6 in one-possession games this season, the second-worst win percentage in the NFL. They set a league record by going 11-0 in one-possession games last season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers WR Ladd McConkey will be held to five or fewer targets for the second straight week. The Chiefs allow targets to players aligned in the slot just 23% of the time (fifth lowest), and McConkey plays 62% of his snaps from the slot. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers’ playoff chances (which stand at 78.1%) would increase to 92.9% with a win and move to 70.5% with a loss, according to ESPN Analytics. A win would only increase the Chiefs’ playoff chances from 11.4% to 17.2%.
Fantasy nugget: Mahomes finished with a season-low 6.3 fantasy points in Week 14. The Chiefs’ receivers also had six drops. Mahomes should put on a herculean performance against the Chargers, with WR Rashee Rice and Kelce as the primary beneficiaries. Mahomes has averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game against L.A. in his career as a starter. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers have covered the past three meetings between the teams. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 21, Chargers 17
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 26, Chargers 20
FPI prediction: KC, 64.9% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ Herbert: X-rays after Eagles win ‘clean for most part’ … Chiefs’ Kelce: ‘Just can’t find’ answers this season … Chiefs LT Morris (knee) done for season
1 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -1.5 (49.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Bills: Buffalo is well aware of the challenge in trying to defend QB Drake Maye, with multiple Bills defenders noting his command of the offense and the support he has received from his playmakers. The high-stakes nature of the game was felt around the building. QB Josh Allen spoke highly of Maye. “He’s playing like a veteran quarterback. He’s seeing things extremely well. He plays at a great pace. It looks like things have slowed down for him. Which again, we hate to see that, right?” Allen said jokingly. “But I’m happy for how well he’s playing because he’s a great human being on top of being a football player.” — Alaina Getzenberg
What we’re hearing on the Patriots: Coach Mike Vrabel and Patriots players are embracing the magnitude of the game and the chance to clinch the AFC East title. “This is a great stage that we put ourselves on, and that’s exciting,” Vrabel said. WR Stefon Diggs, who spent four seasons in Buffalo, added: “This game is a little different because you’re playing for something. Every team in the league can’t say that.” And Maye said the chance to do it against the Bills adds to the dynamic. “They’ve won the division for five years [in a row]. So, we have something we need to go take, and know it’s going to be hard to do, but we’re up for it,” Maye said. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Maye is one of eight QBs since 1950 to win at least 10 straight games in the first two seasons of his career. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Bills CB Christian Benford will allow fewer than 20 yards in coverage. It’s not quite the zero yards allowed (plus a pick-six and sack) that he had in his monster Week 14 game, but if he stays hot, that will go a long way toward a Bills victory. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win. New England has won 21 division titles since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, which is the fourth most in the NFL. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:20
Why Stefon Diggs is key to Stephen A. not favoring Bills over Pats
Stephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend.
Fantasy nugget: The Bills’ defensive front has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs, which bodes well for Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson. Even though he appears to be back in a timeshare with Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson still belongs in lineups because of his explosiveness. He has averaged 12.4 touches and 11.4 fantasy points per game this season, which provides a reasonable floor. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots have covered five straight division games (3-0 against the spread this season). The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their past three division games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 31, Bills 20
Moody’s pick: Patriots 24, Bills 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.5% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills have chance to interrupt the Patriots’ AFC East quest … Patriots rookies contribute mightily to 11-2 record
1 p.m. ET | CBS | BAL -2.5 (51.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson is looking to break out of a four-game rut, during which he has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions. But he is 4-0 in his career at Cincinnati, throwing 15 touchdowns and one interception. “I always have so much respect for [Jackson] and the way he plays, the way he fights and competes and everything else out there,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “When the game starts, and the lights come on, there’s nobody you’d rather have.” — Jamison Hensley
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Forget everything else about the playoffs, standings, draft slot, etc. The final four games are about one thing: Is QB Joe Burrow having a good time? After his mid-week comments about making sure football is fun, that needs to be the top priority for the Bengals. Burrow explicitly said if he’s going to keep playing, he needs to be enjoying the game. Building some positive momentum is critical for the future of Burrow and the franchise. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Jackson’s five straight games without multiple passing touchdowns is the longest such streak as a starter in his career. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens G Andrew Vorhees will post a 98% pass block win rate or higher. Vorhees should see a lot of Kris Jenkins Jr., who has the lowest pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (1.1%) of any qualifier this season. — Walder
What’s at stake: If the Ravens lose to the Bengals in Week 15, their playoff chances fall to 14% (they would rise to 48% with a win). Winning the division is Baltimore’s only viable way to the playoffs; their playoff chances are the same as their division chances. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ defense has been a fantasy football bonanza for opposing offenses, which bodes well for the Ravens, especially RB Derrick Henry. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points per game to RBs, and Henry is averaging 20.6 touches and 16.4 fantasy points over his past seven games. The Bengals have also surrendered the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs, boosting the outlook for Jackson and his No. 1 receiver, Zay Flowers. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 0-5 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bengals 28, Ravens 17
Moody’s pick: Bengals 24, Ravens 20
Walder’s pick: Ravens 23, Bengals 22
FPI prediction: BAL, 51.6% (by an average of 0.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ravens point to Alcaraz, McIlroy as they pursue comeback … Bengals QB Burrow says priority is to have ‘fun’ playing … Can QB Jackson and the struggling Ravens save their season?
1 p.m. ET | Fox | HOU -9.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: Sunday will be a battle of the top-ranked defense and top-ranked QB since Week 6. The Texans’ defense is ranked first in overall yards allowed, third in passing yards allowed per game and second in passing yards allowed per play. It’ll face QB Jacoby Brissett, who’s first in completions, attempts, passing first downs and passing yards since he took over as starter in Week 6. Brissett knows his 5-1 career record against the Texans doesn’t mean much because the last Houston defense he faced has turned over, but he kept his goal simple when he watched tape: “Try to find what they’re not good at. Sometimes, it’s not much, but you try to find that and then you start to build your plan around that.” — Josh Weinfuss
What we’re hearing on the Texans: QB C.J. Stroud isn’t allowing the Cardinals’ record to lure Houston into a false sense of security. The Cardinals have dropped five straight, and Houston is on a five-game win streak, so the Texans are the better team on paper. But Stroud said, “I think we’ve got to be on our A-game if we want to get this win,” and that the Cardinals are a “great team.” Expect Houston to play desperately Sunday. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans are one of two teams that have more interceptions (15) than passing touchdowns allowed (12), along with the Chargers. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Cardinals TE Trey McBride will finish with at least 12 targets. With the Texans’ pass rush expected to bear down on Brissett quickly — and his receivers likely locked up by CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter — McBride is the logical playmaker for Arizona’s QB to target. — Walder
What’s at stake: After Week 9, the Texans had an 11% chance to make the playoffs. They hold an 88% chance. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:26
Vince Wilfork pretty excited for Pats, Texans this season
Vince Wilfork joins Pat McAfee and assesses the performances of his former teams, the Patriots and Texans, this season.
Fantasy nugget: The Texans are heavy favorites, which bodes well for RB Woody Marks. He has been Houston’s lead back since Week 10, logging 17 or more touches in four straight games and dominating snaps in Week 14 after Nick Chubb exited because of a rib injury, finishing with a season-high 28 touches. The Cardinals’ defensive front ranks 22nd in run stop win rate, and Marks has averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game over that span. That should be viewed as his floor, not his ceiling, in this matchup. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Texans 30, Cardinals 14
Moody’s pick: Texans 27, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Cardinals 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.8% (by an average of 8.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Brissett: More settled knowing I’m Cardinals’ starter … Red-hot Texans remain focused amid five-game win streak … Cardinals’ RB Benson out for season with knee injury
1 p.m. ET | Fox | PHI -11.5 (38.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Raiders: Rookie Darien Porter showcased his potential to be a starting cornerback. Against Denver, Porter gave up four catches for 39 yards and recorded two pass breakups on seven targets. Porter will have another test against WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. And with Kyu Blu Kelly out for the rest of the season because of a knee injury, Porter will handle the bulk of the work. “He’s really clean technique-wise; he’s a real product of our system,” coach Pete Carroll said. — Ryan McFadden
What we’re hearing on the Eagles: RB Saquon Barkley captured some of that 2024 magic with a 52-yard touchdown run against the Chargers. He finished with 122 rushing yards, just the second time this season he has gone over 100 yards. The coaching staff went deeper into the playbook, making for a less predictable approach. The performance left some players optimistic that there are better things for Barkley and the offense ahead. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Both offensive lines rank in the bottom half of the league in pass block win rate, which measures how often teams sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds (Eagles: 61%, 18th in NFL, Raiders: 60%, 21st). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Eagles will target Porter three or more times on Philadelphia’s first drive. With Kelly out, Porter will likely start in his stead opposite the offense’s left side, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Philadelphia tries to go after the third-rounder early. To Porter’s credit, his numbers this season are solid: a 13% target rate and 0.9 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats, both better than average. — Walder
What’s at stake: Philadelphia’s playoff chances increase to 95.4% with a win and fall to 80.2% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Eagles have one of the league’s top receiver duos in Brown and Smith, and they have a chance to shine against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions and fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Brown has averaged 11.5 targets and 22.0 fantasy points over his past four games. The Raiders defend TEs well, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points, which means Smith, who has averaged 8.5 points over his past four games, could bounce back. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 2-5 ATS as underdogs of 3-plus points this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 27, Raiders 10
Moody’s pick: Eagles 24, Raiders 10
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Raiders 8
FPI prediction: PHI, 77.4% (by an average of 11.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jeanty: Optimism not quite as high as Carroll’s … The rest of the Eagles’ season can go one of two ways … QB Smith exits Raiders’ loss with right shoulder injury
1 p.m. ET | Fox | NYG -2.5 (46.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: Despite offensive troubles largely due to injuries, Washington remains one of the NFL’s better rushing teams — ranking fourth in yards per game and seventh in yards per carry. Two weeks ago, the Commanders nearly upset Denver by rushing for 143 yards against the NFL’s second-best run defense. Now, they’ll face the league’s 31st-rated rush defense. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said they have leaned more into the run game this season because they’re not as “wide open” with what they can do compared with 2024. “It’s been the best thing that we’ve done, so we got to definitely lean on that,” he said. RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (groin) could benefit if healthy — he has averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in three of his past five games. — John Keim
What we’re hearing on the Giants: The Giants return from their bye week to face the Commanders as favorites, and they’re looking to finish the season strong. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is trying to accomplish one thing down the stretch, beginning Sunday against Washington. “Win,” he said. “Win four games. Take it one at a time.” The Giants’ offense with Dart hasn’t been the problem. New York ranks 14th in total offense since he took over. There should be an opportunity for success against Washington’s 30th-ranked defense. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Giants edge rusher Brian Burns‘ 13.0 sacks are the second most in the NFL this season and the most by a Giants player in a season since Jason Pierre-Paul in 2011. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Giants will score 30 or more points. As badly as this season has been record-wise, the Giants have a .05 EPA per play with Dart on the field. That would put them 13th, one spot behind the Seahawks. And that’s good enough to put up a huge number against the Commanders’ defense. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. However, the Giants have a 52.5% chance of landing a top-five pick in the NFL draft, while the Commanders have a 48.3% chance. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:23
Dopp: Marcus Mariota has a favorable matchup vs. Giants
Daniel Dopp voices his fantasy optimism for Marcus Mariota in a good matchup vs. the Giants.
Injuries: Commanders | Giants
Fantasy nugget: Dart’s dual-threat ability makes him an option at QB this week. He has averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game in his eight starts. The Commanders are an excellent matchup for Dart and WR Wan’Dale Robinson. Washington’s defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to QBs and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Giants 16, Commanders 13
Moody’s pick: Giants 20, Commanders 16
Walder’s pick: Giants 34, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: NYG, 60.8% (by an average of 4.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Daniels ruled out after aggravating elbow injury … Giants’ Robinson, Eluemunor and Flott set for big pay days … TE Ertz out for season with torn Achilles
1 p.m. ET | Fox | CHI -7.5 (38.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Browns: The next test for rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, who will start the final four games, is a Bears defense that leads the NFL with 18 interceptions. That makes ball security even more important for Sanders, who has thrown three interceptions since making his debut in Week 11. “I think they have some players with outstanding ball skills and anticipatory skills to go to footballs,” coach Kevin Stefanski said. “They’re playing in their zone defense, very visual on the quarterback. So, with any quarterback — young quarterback, old quarterback — you have to do a great job with your eyes. You have to trust what you see when you’re looking at them. … You have to key their defenders and understand where they are, especially in their zones.” — Daniel Oyefusi
What we’re hearing on the Bears: Sunday’s weather forecast calls for a high of 10 degrees, with wind chills around minus-10. If that holds, it will be one of the coldest games on record at Soldier Field. Safety Kevin Byard III said the difficult part of playing in the elements is the idle time. “The whole lead-up — warmups, when you’re kind of just standing around, that’s the annoying part of it,” Byard said. “The TV timeouts, I stand over by the heaters, and when there’s 30 seconds left in the TV timeout, I run back on the field and get the playcall.” QB Caleb Williams says he’s not fazed by the sub-zero temps. “I believe that weather and the elements don’t bother me,” Williams said. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears are averaging 152.6 rushing yards per game (ranked second in the NFL behind the Bills). Chicago has averaged 150 rushing YPG through the first 14 games only once over the past 35 seasons (187 rushing YPG in 2022). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Sanders will turn the ball over at least three times. The Bears’ defense is forcing turnovers on 19% of opponents’ drives, which is the best in the NFL by a mile, and Sanders has the worst QBR (19.9) among all QBs with at least 100 pass attempts. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Bears’ playoff chances rise to 68.8% with a win and fall to 44.4% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Browns WR Jerry Jeudy has shown strong chemistry with Sanders, posting 7 receptions, 141 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 12 targets over the rookie’s first three starts. Jeudy also draws an excellent matchup against a Bears defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears have not closed as at least 7-point favorites since Week 16 of the 2020 season (-8 at Jaguars). It’s their largest home favorite role since 2018. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Bears 23, Browns 16
Moody’s pick: Bears 24, Browns 17
Walder’s pick: Bears 21, Browns 14
FPI prediction: CHI, 72.5% (by an average of 9.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns QB Sanders focused on Bears, not final four games … Bears QB Williams needs accuracy mixed with flash … Bears coach Johnson ‘surprised’ WR Moore had only one catch at Packers
1 p.m. ET | CBS | JAX -13.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Jets: From all indications, rookie QB Brady Cook will make his first NFL start, replacing the injured Tyrod Taylor (groin). Ball security will be paramount. In three-plus quarters last week, Cook had two red zone interceptions and two fumbles (both recovered). This is a dangerous opponent, as the Jaguars have 23 takeaways (tied for second in the NFL). The Jets are prepared for heavy blitzing. As offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand said, “I think, historically, some defensive coordinators say, ‘Hey, we’re going to heat the young kid up and see what he’s made of.'” — Rich Cimini
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence has had his best stretch of the season in the past three weeks. It’s the first time in his career he has thrown for 225 yards and two or more touchdowns in three consecutive games. Since the Jaguars’ Week 9 bye, Lawrence ranks 10th in Total QBR and has thrown a league-high five go-ahead touchdown passes, per ESPN Research. “It’s not anything necessarily that’s changed about anything that we’ve done with him, I think he’s just starting to feel more and more comfortable within the system and within the guys that he’s playing with,” coach Liam Coen said. — Michael DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jets’ two takeaways this season (every other team has seven or more) ranks as the fewest through the first 13 games of a season in NFL history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Jaguars will score a defensive or special teams touchdown. No matter who the Jets start at QB, they’ll be heavy underdogs, and it will be tough sledding against a Jaguars defense that ranks fifth in EPA per play. My D/ST touchdown model gives Jacksonville a 19% chance to record a touchdown this week, the highest of any team. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars hold a 97% chance to make the playoffs; that jumps to 99% with a win and falls to 92% with a loss, independent of other results. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:01
Should fantasy managers bench Breece Hall vs. Jaguars?
Field Yates explains his lack of fantasy optimism for Breece Hall vs. the Jaguars in Week 15.
Fantasy nugget: RB Travis Etienne Jr. and the Jaguars’ running game should shine against a Jets defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game. Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks sixth in run block win rate. Etienne continues to see a massive workload. He has had at least 18 touches in five of his past six games. Etienne has averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game over that time. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 7-4 ATS as underdogs this season (5-2 ATS in the past seven, with three outright wins). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Jaguars 20, Jets 10
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 30, Jets 17
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 31, Jets 20
FPI prediction: JAX, 75.8% (by an average of 10.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets QB Cook could make history if he starts vs. Jaguars … Jets’ playoff drought reaches 15 years amid QB turmoil
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | LAR -6 (54.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Lions: QB Jared Goff, who is entering his fourth career game versus the Rams since being traded from Los Angeles for Matthew Stafford in 2021, says the move “feels like a long time ago.” Goff says he no longer feels emotions “so much anymore” as he becomes further removed from the trade. “I’ve got so much respect for those guys over there and how well they’re playing, how well they’re coached. Certainly, the film I’m watching of their defense is really impressive,” Goff said after Wednesday’s practice. — Eric Woodyard
What we’re hearing on the Rams: With a victory Sunday against the Lions, the Rams can clinch a playoff spot. But WR Davante Adams said that’s not something that has come up in team meetings this week. “It’s cool to know certain things like that, but the way we approach it … I think the best way is to be where your feet are and conquer the day that you’re in,” Adams said. The Rams also have a 46% chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to ESPN Analytics. With a win against the Lions, that jumps to 60%, and with a loss, it falls to 27%. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Rams’ and Lions’ play-action rates are among the highest in the NFL this season. The Rams are leading the way, doing so 35% of the time, while the Lions have the fourth-highest clip in the league (30%) — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams edge Byron Young will have no more than one pass rush win. Though Young is having something of a breakout campaign with 11.0 sacks already, he has just a 10.8% pass rush win rate at edge — below average for an edge rusher. And, critically, he’ll be facing Lions star tackle Penei Sewell, too. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Lions have the second most to gain or lose this week: Their current playoff chances are 54.9%, which rise to 72.7% with a win and fall to 41.6% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Stafford, Adams and Puka Nacua should be leaned on heavily against a Lions defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. The Rams’ offensive line ranks seventh in pass block win rate, so it should provide Stafford with the time he needs to throw to his playmakers, especially against a defensive front that ranks 28th in pass rush win rate. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Three straight Lions games have gone over the total (overs: 5-1 in their past six games). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 45, Rams 42
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Rams 28
Walder’s pick: Rams 30, Lions 24
FPI prediction: LAR, 58% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: St. Brown toughs out injury, fuels Lions to key win over Cowboys … Rams powered by one-two punch RB duo of Williams and Corum … Safety Branch suffers Achilles injury
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | SEA -13.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Colts: Now-unretired QB Philip Rivers has grabbed the majority of the headlines, but the underlying story is the Colts’ defense versus the Seahawks’ sizzling offense. Indianapolis has been struggling on defense, and without its elite starting CB duo of Sauce Gardner (calf) and Charvarius Ward (concussion), as well as the potential absence of DT DeForest Buckner (neck), the Colts are up against it. In the past five games, the Colts are 25th in scoring defense (26.2 PPG) and 23rd in opposing QBR (57.6). Can they slow a red-hot Seattle offense? — Stephen Holder
What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: Coach Mike Macdonald said of Rivers unretiring at age 44: “If anybody can pull it off, it’s him. The guy’s probably one of the best competitors in the history of the NFL. I’m sure he wouldn’t do it if he didn’t feel like he was ready.” Rivers, who hasn’t played since 2020, will have to do it against one of the league’s best defenses. The Seahawks are allowing the second-fewest points and rank second in pressure rate, and both offenses might be challenged Sunday, with rain in the forecast. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has had three consecutive games with fewer than 100 rushing yards, his longest streak this season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Seahawks DE Leonard Williams will twice stuff Taylor for gains of zero or negative yards. Williams ranks fourth in run stop win rate as an interior lineman this season. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts have a 27% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. They are not favored in any of their final four games this season. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:38
Where Philip Rivers ranks all time in fantasy scoring
Daniel Dopp discusses Philip Rivers’ place among NFL legends in all-time fantasy scoring.
Fantasy nugget: The Seahawks’ defense has had five games with multiple interceptions, Seattle’s most since posting 10 such games in 2013. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest points per game and ranks third in run stop win rate and fifth in pass rush win rate. The Seahawks’ defense belongs in fantasy lineups every week, especially against a Colts team without QB Daniel Jones. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS this season, the best record in the NFL. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 27, Colts 19
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 30, Colts 14
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 24, Colts 16
FPI prediction: SEA, 71.8% (by an average of 8.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the Colts signed QB Rivers out of NFL retirement … Seahawks’ Shaheed emerged as a difference-maker in Week 14 … Rivers ‘excited’ but Colts’ QB situation still fluid
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | GB -2.5 (42.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Packers: This is the middle game of a three-game stretch — Bears-Broncos-Bears — that could decide where the Packers finish. Last week’s win over Chicago put the Packers back in first place. Depending on what happens against Denver, next week’s game at Chicago might be season-defining. “We knew going into this year … it was going to be a grind, and you’ve got to find a way to get through it,” coach Matt LaFleur said. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: This one goes out to all of the pass-rush lovers. This game will feature the player who leads the league in pressure rate — Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons — and the players who rank Nos. 1, 3 and 5 in QB hits — Broncos DT Zach Allen, Parsons and Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto. So, it could come down to which offense can keep its QB out of harm’s way long enough to score against defenses that are among the league’s top six in points allowed (Broncos are fourth; Packers, sixth). — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos’ league-leading 55 sacks are 11 more than the next-closest team this season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Packers WR Jayden Reed will score a touchdown. He played 47% of snaps in his return last week — his first game since Week 2 — and had four receptions and two carries. His workload will likely tick up in his second game back, and with All-Pro CB Pat Surtain II playing opposite an outside receiver, Reed will have an even more important role from the slot. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a win. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Packers WR Christian Watson has thrived as a vertical threat since returning from injury in Week 8 and belongs in lineups even in a tough road matchup in Denver. He has scored at least 18 fantasy points in three of his past four games and is averaging 6.5 targets per game over that stretch. Watson looks like the Packers’ No. 1 receiver. The role says it, the film confirms it and the fantasy points keep coming. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos are 3-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season, with three straight wins. They are 1-0 as home underdogs (+4.5 vs. the Chiefs in Week 11). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Packers 23, Broncos 20
Moody’s pick: Packers 23, Broncos 20
Walder’s pick: Packers 20, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: GB, 52.2% (by an average of 1.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: CB Nixon shows why he’s important to Packers’ success … RB Harvey’s breakthrough performance has Broncos excited
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | SF -12.5 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Titans: Tennessee is looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Nov. 2022. The offense rode with the running game last week, with Tony Pollard posting a career-high 161 yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers are allowing 103.8 rushing yards per game. Pollard said the key will be “staying locked in on the run game by staying ahead of the chains and playing their game instead of chasing plays.” — Turron Davenport
What we’re hearing on the 49ers: Back from their long-awaited bye, the 49ers are aware of the opportunity Sunday. The playoffs are within reach, but they also have a realistic shot to be in the mix for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. “Obviously, we’re going to need some help to get there, but if we take care of our business, it just gives us an opportunity,” RT Colton McKivitz said. “We’ve been there before and enjoyed that. So, we take care of our business, we know that’s a possibility.” Coach Kyle Shanahan doesn’t like talking about such things, which is why he is spending this week focusing on this week’s task. A win over the Titans would be the first of many steps for the Niners to reach that lofty playoff perch. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: Titans QB Cam Ward has a 62% completion rate since Week 11, which ranks 13th among 34 qualified QBs during that span. He previously ranked last among qualified QBs in completion rate from Weeks 1-10 (58%). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Titans edge rusher Arden Key will record a sack despite likely facing 49ers OT Trent Williams. Key is coming off a 22% pass rush win rate game at edge and has been solid in pass rush all season. — Walder
What’s at stake: With a win, the 49ers would have a 96% chance to make the playoffs, but that would fall to 83% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:16
Why Mike Clay expects Tony Pollard to come back to Earth in Week 15
Mike Clay details why he is still not making Tony Pollard a lineup lock against the 49ers.
Fantasy nugget: The 49ers’ defense is well-positioned for success against Ward, who has been sacked a league-high 49 times. Even though the 49ers rank 30th in pass rush win rate, it’s hard to see them struggling in this matchup. Defenses facing the Titans have averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game. Tennessee’s offense has scored just 15.5 points per game. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers have covered four straight games as favorites and three straight games overall. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: 49ers 30, Titans 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 28, Titans 10
Walder’s pick: 49ers 29, Titans 17
FPI prediction: SF, 83.1% (by an average of 14.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: 49ers to make push for NFC’s No. 1 seed coming out of bye
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | CAR -2.5 (40.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Panthers: QB Bryce Young called this “just [another] game.” That’s understandable because he’s trying not to make it bigger than it is. But Carolina needs to keep pace with the Bucs in the NFC South and can’t take a loss like it did to the then-one-win Saints last month. And it’s the most meaningful game in December in Young’s career. He had a 14.5 Total QBR (second worst of the season) in that initial loss to the Saints. — David Newton
What we’re hearing on the Saints: Rookie QB Tyler Shough has the opportunity to win his first home game after winning two on the road against the Buccaneers and Panthers. He had two rushing touchdowns last week in a game where the Saints had to rely on him and rookie RB Devin Neal. “You want to play your best ball against your divisional opponents … because of the familiarity. You want to be dialed on your game plan, what they’re doing well,” Shough said. “So, I think for us, it’s another really good challenge just because they’ve played really good football as of late … so we’ve got to be prepared.” — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Shough is seeking his third win this season, which would tie Archie Manning (3-5-2 in 1971) for the most wins by a Saints rookie QB. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Young will record a QBR under 45. Last time we saw Young, he had an excellent game in an upset win over the Rams. But it was only because of his exceptional play on third and fourth downs (QBR: 99.3). Young had only a 26.4 QBR on first and second downs. I’m always skeptical when I see a split like that: The late-down performance carries a much heavier weight in explaining the QB’s contribution in that game. — Walder
What’s at stake: Though they were tied with the Bucs for the NFC South lead entering Week 15, the Panthers are two games behind the Bears for the final NFC wild-card spot. According to ESPN Analytics, the Panthers would have a 40% chance to make the playoffs with a win, but that would fall to 19% with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Neal has operated as the Saints’ lead RB for two consecutive games with Alvin Kamara (knee) out. Neal led the backfield in snaps, routes, touches (20) and fantasy points (15.4) in Week 13. He remains firmly on the flex radar while Kamara is sidelined, especially with Carolina allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game over the past three games. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have lost 11 straight games outright as a favorite, the longest streak in the Super Bowl era (1967). It’s their second game as a favorite this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Panthers 20, Saints 10
Moody’s pick: Panthers 24, Saints 17
Walder’s pick: Saints 23, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: CAR, 51.9% (by an average of 1.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Extension for Panthers’ QB Young? Next four games are ‘vital’ … Rookies Shough, Neal want to carry Saints: ‘It starts and ends with us’ … Shough shows ‘it’ factor with two rushing TDs
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | DAL -5.5 (47.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: If WR Justin Jefferson can’t break out of his statistical slump Sunday, when will he? The Cowboys enter the game having allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL (255.2). Though they have shown some overall defensive improvement in recent weeks, Dallas has still allowed a 90-plus yards receiving game to eight different receivers this season. Jefferson’s past two games — four receiving yards in Week 13 and 11 yards in Week 14 — are the two least productive games of his career. — Kevin Seifert
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: The Cowboys know they need help to make the playoffs. They also know they need to do their part by winning their final four games. They have beaten Minnesota three straight times, their second-longest active winning streak against an opponent (Giants, nine). And playing at home helps. The Cowboys are averaging 32.6 points and 431 yards per game at AT&T Stadium this season. Minnesota’s road offense has not been so hot. Since a third-quarter touchdown at Detroit on Nov. 2, the Vikings have gone 25 possessions without a touchdown. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: QB Dak Prescott is seeking to be the second Dallas quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yards through Week 15, joining Roger Staubach in 1978. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy will record a QBR under 35. I will need to see McCarthy beat someone better than the worst pass defense in the league — Washington — for me to buy in. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Cowboys have a 10% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics (8% chance to win out). See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
2:34
Stephen A.: Jerry Jones’ confidence is because of Eagles’ woes, not the Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith believes Jerry Jones’ confidence about the Cowboys’ playoff chances has more to do with the Eagles’ recent skid.
Fantasy nugget: Jefferson has been difficult to trust in lineups lately. Over his past three games, he has just 16 total targets and 14.3 total fantasy points. This is surprising, considering he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game last season. However, the Cowboys’ defense presents a great matchup for Jefferson and McCarthy. Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs and the second most to WRs. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 9-4 in Cowboys games this season, the highest over rate in the NFL. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Cowboys 31, Vikings 27
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 28, Vikings 17
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 26, Vikings 19
FPI prediction: DAL, 60.4% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Staubach’s Hail Mary for Cowboys left a 50-year Vikings beef … The remote path for QB Prescott, Cowboys to make playoffs
8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | PIT -3.5 (41.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: RB De’Von Achane (ribs) was a limited participant in the team’s first practice of the week, and Miami will continue to monitor his reps and preserve his body leading up to Monday night’s game. But if Achane can’t handle a full workload come game day, coach Mike McDaniel expressed full confidence in backup Jaylen Wright — even saying he has had players suggest to him over the past few weeks that Wright should get more game reps. With a career-high 110 rushing yards on 24 carries in place of an injured Achane last week, Wright rewarded his teammates’ faith. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
What we’re hearing on the Steelers: Pittsburgh could be without star pass rusher T.J. Watt, who was hospitalized after experiencing lung discomfort following treatment at the team facility Wednesday. But they could get back rookie DT Derrick Harmon, who has missed the past two games because of an injury to the same knee that he injured in the preseason. The Steelers’ run defense improves by an average of about 100 yards per game — 96 rushing yards allowed versus 191.3 — when Harmon plays. “He’s a first-rounder,” coach Mike Tomlin said of Harmon and the difference he makes in run defense. “That’s why you draft first-rounders.” — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Dolphins have lost 13 straight games when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or colder, including playoffs. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Steelers TE Darnell Washington will record at least four receptions. We know offensive coordinator Arthur Smith loves to utilize his TEs, and 25% of targets against the Dolphins go to TEs, the second-highest rate in the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: Steelers WR DK Metcalf drew 12 targets and scored 21.8 fantasy points in Week 14, his second-best outing of the season. Facing Miami looks tough on paper, but the Dolphins have still allowed a receiver 20 or more fantasy points in two of their past three games. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 games as a road underdog. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Steelers 20, Dolphins 10
Moody’s pick: Steelers 23, Dolphins 21
Walder’s pick: Steelers 22, Dolphins 19
FPI prediction: PIT, 59.2% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: McDaniel: My decision to keep Achane (rib) out late vs. Jets … Steelers’ LB Watt at hospital having lung evaluated … Steelers ignore noise, back Tomlin in win vs. Ravens
