Spinning Week 15 forward: Broncos and Rams clinched … can they reach the Super Bowl?
Ben SolakDec 16, 2025, 06:40 AM ET Close Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network. Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books. Through those fifteen weeks, not a single team has successfully secured…
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Ben Solak
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books. Through those fifteen weeks, not a single team has successfully secured a division title — the first time every division has been up for grabs this late since 2016. The Seahawks and Rams, Buccaneers and Panthers, and Packers and Bears play in what might end up being season-defining games this upcoming week. Hats off to the NFL schedule makers.
And hats off to the ESPN schedule makers, who have once again secured the Tuesday morning spot for my column. Every Tuesday, I spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll seek measured reactions to everyone’s overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed.
There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.
Jump to a section:
Can anyone stop Rams, Broncos?
What to make of Rivers’ first start
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 15 stats
Monday Night Move-on: Miami’s Tua’s issue
The Big Thing: Can anyone stop the Rams or Broncos?
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we’re looking at the first two teams to clinch a 2025 playoff spot.
The dust has settled on Week 15 and we know, for sure, ⅐ of our playoff field. The Rams and Broncos secured postseason berths with victories Sunday. Though neither has secured their division title nor their conference’s top seed just yet, they control their own destinies to do so.
The Rams have been the sort of boringly excellent squad that is hard to write about. The Broncos have been about as heart-poundingly exciting as a team can be on an 11-win streak. This week, I dove into each team to examine their recent big wins — a 41-34 barnburner against the Lions for the Rams; a 34-26 statement over the Packers for the Broncos — as well as the bulk of their seasons to figure out what has clicked. More importantly, I wanted to answer two questions: Are they really the best teams in their respective conferences? And who, if anyone, is each team’s biggest threat?
The Rams took the Lions’ best punch on the chin, giving up 24 first-half points and falling behind by 10, but L.A. calmly regained control over the end of the second quarter and into the second half. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay zeroed in on Lions cornerback D.J. Reed, targeting him seven times in the first half for four completions and 97 yards. Three of the four completions were deep or intermediate routes that took advantage of Reed’s aggressiveness, showing him one break before hitting him with another.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
For years under McVay, the Rams were spammers. They identified a few core concepts, finicked with the window dressing and hit them over and over and over again. But this is the most balanced Rams team McVay has ever fielded. Los Angeles has the star receivers (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams) to live in isolation shots against man coverage. It has the offensive line to protect on long-developing play-action concepts streaking across the field. It has a quarterback who can execute both approaches. It has the secondary personnel grouping (multiple-tight-end sets) that allows it to become more variable in the running game and duplicitous in the passing game. Plus, Nacua’s strength as a blocker and Blake Corum‘s emergence behind Kyren Williams add more layers to the running game. You see how this goes?
Out of this diversity comes precision. The Rams have the tools to hit a defense exactly where it hurts. The first half was “attack D.J. Reed.” The Lions benched Reed in the second half, playing him in only multi-cornerback sets or when Amik Robertson got banged up.
But then the second half became “dominate with 13 personnel.” Of the Rams’ 35 second-half plays, 27 were in 13 personnel; they were running it at a 70% clip even before Adams’ fourth-quarter hamstring injury. The Lions were run blitzing the heavy-tight-end looks endlessly, trying to get penetration against the Rams’ patient running backs, and that opened up the quick play-action throws.
That the Rams have an elite offense is generally unsurprising. The McVay/Stafford/Nacua triumvirate is always going to print quality offense. It’s the additional layers this season that take them from typical Rams-y goodness to unprecedented Rams-y goodness. Those layers are in jeopardy now that Adams’ injury looks like a multiweek issue that could last into the postseason. But the Rams have been impressively healthy on offense so far and have plenty of resources to lean on in Adams’ absence.
The Rams’ defense is the bigger surprise and bigger story. Sunday was an investigation into their one great weakness: cornerback play. While Emmanuel Forbes Jr.’s career recovery in Los Angeles has been heartwarming, he remains a gettable cover man who does not anticipate well in man coverage, nor challenge the catch point with great physicality. Forbes was targeted nine times Sunday, allowing six receptions for 84 yards. In the Rams’ surprising loss to the Panthers two weeks ago, Forbes was the biggest culprit — 6 targets, 5 receptions, 110 yards, 2 scores allowed.
With standout nickel Quentin Lake still on injured reserve, the cornerbacks are not the caliber of players that discourage targets. They’re smaller players who excel clicking and closing from deep zone alignments, so anticipatory quarterbacks who trust their wideouts can shred the space between the zones. Jared Goff was the author of such a game Sunday, but Mac Jones did it twice, too.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
When coordinator Chris Shula’s zone-heavy defensive philosophy morphs into match coverages in which corners have to play receivers in phase, the challenge of having smaller defensive backs becomes evident. Again, quarterbacks willing to rip throws to larger receivers in tight windows can make hay. In Week 3, the Eagles had success with Jalen Hurts throwing to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, two of the league’s elite catch-point players. The Panthers did the same with Bryce Young throwing to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker.
The Rams’ standing solution has been to accelerate the quarterback in the pocket. Los Angeles is ninth in pressure rate despite having no defensive linemen who rank in the top 40 in individual pressure rate. Byron Young leads the team with 11 sacks, but his pressure rate is in the George Karlaftis–Travon Walker range. Jared Verse‘s 9.9% pressure rate leads the team but comes right between Baron Browning and Carl Granderson in the leaguewide rankings. Verse and Young are 25th and 27th in pass rush win rate on the edge, respectively.
But the Rams don’t generate pressure the old-fashioned way, through elite pass rushers on the outside. Verse and Young are pocket pushers who collapse potential escape routes for mobile quarterbacks. Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner are top 10 among defensive tackles in win rate from interior alignments, and the Rams send heavy doses of second-level blitzes and simulated pressure down the interior gaps. They want to pressure quarterbacks — especially immobile ones such as Goff — at their feet to prevent them from climbing the pocket into aggressive throws.
This largely works well, and it is enormously to Shula’s credit. The Rams have the cheapest defense in the league by total salary cap spent, but the system is well catered to the roster’s strengths. The edges might not be elite sack artists, but their absurd play strength makes run fits easier from light boxes. Free agent star Nate Landman and undrafted free agent gem Omar Speights are two of the league’s better starting linebackers; safety Kamren Kinchens is regularly placed in robber positions to take advantage of his playmaking instincts and ball skills. Shula hides his talented but imperfect depth chart from its weakest reps week in and week out.
But defenses like this are beatable. The Rams’ defense will give up long, arduous drives to quality running games, and it gets stressed by big receivers. Those drives have the added cost of a running game clock that limits the number of possessions the Rams’ offense has. Should Stafford and McVay’s group make one mistake — such as the fumble inside the 5-yard line against the 49ers in Week 6, or the end zone interception against the Panthers — the game can quickly evaporate.
So who are the threats?
The Lions at full strength are certainly the Rams’ biggest opposition. Goff is a great stylistic fit against this defense, the Lions’ run defense is league leading, and Detroit has the size along its offensive line to combat the Rams’ power. As we saw Sunday, Detroit’s injuries have neutralized the threat. Liabilities at cornerback, tight end, left guard and safety made the mountain too tall for the Lions to climb.
The 49ers now seem like the greatest danger. The Rams split the regular-season series with them and should have swept it, were it not for costly end-of-game errors in Week 6. But even after building a 21-0 first-half lead in the Week 10 rematch, the 49ers clawed their way back to a one-possession deficit in the fourth quarter as Jones went 31-for-37 passing. Kyle Shanahan has excelled creating space in the passing game against Shula, and with Brock Purdy under center, it’s hard to imagine that tune changing.
However, the Rams can and should dominate the 49ers on the ground. San Francisco’s defense is terribly battered, and it’s not a particularly big group against the Rams’ multiple-tight-end sets. The 49ers’ defense is the liability in the matchup.
That brings us to the Seahawks, who have been an enormous thorn in McVay’s side since Mike Macdonald became head coach. In the Rams’ 21-19 victory over Seattle in Week 11, Stafford averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt — his worst in any start under McVay. Were it not for a few explosive runs and four Sam Darnold interceptions, the relative ineptitude of the Rams’ offense against Seattle’s defense would have gotten more headlines.
The Rams get a second crack at the issue Thursday night, as they face Seattle in a rematch that could decide the NFC West and home field in the playoffs. For as much as the Rams need offensive solutions to Seattle’s defense, the Seahawks need offensive solutions of their own. That game against the Rams broke Darnold, who hasn’t looked like the same quarterback since (see Next Ben Stats below).
Unsurprisingly, it’s the divisional foes who know the Rams best that present the greatest challenge. But the Rams are still a clear cut above the NFC field, and they will be until proven otherwise (perhaps by the Seahawks in a few evenings). In the AFC, things are far more murky.
With their emphatic win over the Packers and the Patriots’ loss to the Bills, the Broncos are the NFL’s lone two-loss team. They have the best record and an inside track to the AFC’s 1-seed. In Year 3 of Sean Payton’s tenure in Denver, he has brought exactly what he promised: championship-caliber football.
The Broncos’ seasonlong success has been on the back of their defense . Of 320 team seasons over the past decade, the 2025 Broncos are eighth in defensive success rate and fourth specifically against dropbacks. They’ll give up a big play here and there because of all the man coverage and blitzing, but a dropback against Denver is usually a bad play for the opponent. The inverse is true of the running game, where the Broncos will surrender some ground but never allow explosive plays: Their 3.3% explosive run rate surrendered is the best number since the 2010 Steelers.
If you want to attempt a big play against Denver, you’re going to have to drop back. And if you drop back, the Broncos will eventually sack you.
0:40
Broncos dominate Packers in 2nd half
Jeff Legwold recaps the Broncos big win over the Packers on Sunday.
Denver is on a historic pace for converting pressures into sacks. In the past 25 years, the 2025 Broncos’ 10.1% sack rate ranks eighth for all teams across all seasons. Because they can play so aggressively at the line of scrimmage with their cornerbacks — reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II, the always underappreciated and over-targeted Riley Moss, and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian — the Broncos challenge quarterbacks to hold on to the football. Quarterbacks try to escape this challenge, as 40.7% of pass attempts against Denver are out in 2.5 seconds, the fourth-highest rate in the league. But Denver is third in success rate against quick passes, so good luck with that.
When quarterbacks hold the football, Denver’s pass rush comes in waves. It starts with Nik Bonitto, the league’s premier quick-pressure artist. With a first step slower than only Myles Garrett — that’s not a subjective claim; that’s NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data — Bonitto is the league’s leader in total quick pressures (37), time to pressure (2.61 seconds) and quick pressure rate (10.9%). The next closest player for quick pressure rate is at 9.2%.
Unlike most speed rushers, Bonitto converts his rushes into sacks (18.7% pressure-to-sack rate) and game-altering plays (the pass breakup on the game-deciding two-point conversion against the Commanders). But even when Bonitto doesn’t get home, his speed along the outside forces quarterbacks to climb into the heart of the pocket. That’s where Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers (10th and 11th, respectively, in pressure rate among defensive tackles) wait. Even when offenses chip Bonitto, running mate Jonathon Cooper punishes them. Bonitto’s average get-off is 0.76 seconds by Next Gen Stats’ numbers; Cooper’s is 0.78.
That’s how it went down on what should have been the final play of the game for the Packers. They lined a tight end up to Bonitto’s side and had the running back in a position to chip. But Allen walked the center back into Jordan Love‘s lap, and Cooper beat the right tackle along his outside shoulder. The vises closed on Love.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
Allen was particularly lights out against the Packers — seven quarterback hits, including the interior pressure that created a fourth-quarter interception. That’s the thing about a pass rush in waves: Few offenses have the line necessary to win all of the one-on-ones, even before coordinator Vance Joseph starts sending extra bodies.
Joseph has better tools this season than he has ever had in Denver, and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Joseph has called more man coverage this season than in the two previous as defensive coordinator. Surtain and Moss have both been largely healthy, but free agent safety Talanoa Hufanga has also given Denver a better matchup into tight ends, against whom they struggled in the past. Denver is playing more split-safety coverages and getting more clouds and brackets onto opposing star receivers instead of expecting Surtain to always win those matchups without help and tossing its hands up in the rare instances in which he doesn’t.
Despite their ability to man up with just about anyone, the Broncos are still scheme versatile. Denver played more zone coverage against the Packers than it had in any game this season, knowing that Love can hit devastating trick shots against man coverage but struggles with snap-to-snap consistency against zone. It made the same adjustment on Jalen Hurts in Week 5 against the Eagles, running zone on 55% of first-half dropbacks but 78% of second-half dropbacks en route to a fourth-quarter shutout and 14-point comeback.
While the defense is the story of the season, the story of the Broncos’ win over the Packers was Bo Nix and the offense. Nix played the best game of his NFL career against Green Bay, ripping throws with timing, accuracy and aggression in a way he hasn’t for much of this season.
Entering Week 15, Nix was averaging 0.0 EPA per dropback against zone coverage. He completed 64.6% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt at a 42.2% success rate — all below league average. Those numbers were buttressed by a Week 8 competitive advantage called “playing the Cowboys,” who almost exclusively run zone and are as easy a defense to pass against as you’ll find. Always willing to drop the ball into a bucket against man coverage downfield, Nix would hesitate at rapidly closing zone windows, making throws more challenging than they needed to be.
The Week 11 bye week offered Nix an opportunity to recalibrate, and he emerged a new man. Two of Nix’s touchdown passes on Sunday were perfectly placed and timed throws through some tight windows. This is the guy we saw against the Browns and Bengals at the end of last season.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
In anticipation of facing the Packers’ zone-heavy defense, Payton put good tools in Nix’s toolbox. Another of Nix’s touchdowns came out of a 4×1 offensive alignment that put X receiver Courtland Sutton way outside the core of the formation. It’s almost impossible to play zone coverage against the isolated receiver here, as there is so much room to the wide side of the field. Packers corner Keisean Nixon is forced into man coverage responsibilities, and Nix can take the one-on-one with his star receiver. Beautiful ball.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
The fourth and final Nix touchdown was also a 4×1 formation that again took advantage of the Packers’ zone coverage. This time, the isolated receiver crossed the formation fast, and cornerback Carrington Valentine tried to pass him off into the coverage zones and pick up a new responsibility. But there was a miscommunication between Valentine and nickel Javon Bullard, as Bullard thought he could give receiver Michael Bandy to the waiting Valentine. Nix broke the pocket, pulled Bullard down and hit Bandy for an easy touchdown.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
The Broncos needed this game from their quarterback and playcaller. Without running back J.K. Dobbins for the rest of the regular season and most (if not all) of the postseason, the passing game will have to carry Denver’s offense through the playoffs. In his best games as a rookie, Nix was largely an executor of a Payton offense that lived on yards after catch and shot plays — a lot of schemed-up yardage. Nix has been given more on his plate this season with mixed results, but Sunday was a statement performance. The Packers’ defense challenged him and Payton — only 32.4% of Nix’s targets had 3-plus yards of separation, a career-low rate. Tell me just that number pregame, and I would have predicted Nix struggled. Instead, he shone.
So who are the threats?
It’s harder to believe in the Broncos as the AFC’s clear best team than it is to believe in the Rams in the NFC because this was a peak Nix game. Stafford has been doing this for a long time. We cannot be nearly as certain of this new reality sticking for Nix over the rest of the regular season, with some challenging defenses on deck (Jaguars, Chargers) before the postseason begins.
Denver is seventh in team DVOA, which puts it third in the conference behind the Colts and Texans. DVOA always lags a bit relative to recent production, so we can say confidently that the Broncos are better than the Colts, who beat Denver in Week 2 but have fallen off completely over the past month.
But seasonlong numbers put the Broncos more squarely in the first tier of AFC contenders than above them. When comparing general metrics for the nominal top six teams of the AFC (I’m not giving the AFC North champion any credence until proven otherwise), we see the Broncos have the best defense but aren’t alone in having a top group. Offensively, they’ve been less productive than the field.
Still, styles make fights. I love Denver’s matchup against New England, for example. The Broncos can swallow up the Patriots’ deep but starless core of receivers in man-to-man. They can pressure Drake Maye fast, especially with New England’s offensive line in disarray. And Nix can take his shots against a man-coverage-heavy defense.
I also think Denver’s defense presents a unique challenge to the resurgent Jaguars offense, which has been shredding since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye. The Jags have moved the ball unbelievably well against bad defenses (Raiders, Cardinals, Jets) and quite well against great defenses (Chargers, Texans). But they haven’t faced a good blitzing defense, and the Broncos have the sort of group that can smack Trevor Lawrence back into his turnover-prone ways — assuming his evolution, like Nix’s, isn’t fully complete just yet. The Broncos welcome Jacksonville to Denver on Sunday in another prove-it game. They cleared the first test against the Packers and must do so again.
The biggest worry for Denver and the rest of the conference must be the Bills and Josh Allen. The league’s reigning MVP can go Super Saiyan at the drop of a hat — but it’s not Allen’s excellence that is particularly terrifying. As the Broncos discovered in Orchard Park last season when they were bounced from the playoffs, the Bills are a complete team. The running game has become one of the league’s best and allows Buffalo to control game pace. Yes, the Broncos don’t surrender explosive plays, but the Bills don’t run for explosives anyway. They grind opponents for 6-, 7-, 8-yard gains that keep the offense on schedule.
The Broncos’ superpower is their ability to play man coverage against anyone, but the Bills don’t want to throw to their wide receivers anyway. Buffalo’s wideout group can run Surtain and Moss on untargeted wind sprints downfield while Allen peppers RBs out of the backfield and tight ends on heavy play-action fakes. Buffalo’s ability to get into heavier groupings and lean on the Broncos’ pass rush could slow down the first steps from Bonitto and Cooper. Meanwhile, the Bills are another zone-heavy team that forces quarterbacks to decisively slice them into shreds, as Nix did to the Packers on Sunday. Can he do it again in a playoff setting?
Denver’s defense has the ability to take over games and can beat anyone by blitzing and bullying its way into multiple takeaways and sacks. Denver’s offense has gotten hot for stretches, and many good playoff runs have been defined by hot streaks for imperfect units. The Broncos should be the favorites in the AFC over the Bills, Patriots and Jaguars — but we still have three weeks to learn about the field before the postseason kicks off. The AFC race remains tight.
0:45
Should fantasy managers start Bo Nix in Week 16?
Liz Loza breaks down Bo Nix’s fantasy performance in Week 15 and why fantasy managers can rely on him at quarterback in Week 16.
What to make of Philip Rivers‘ first 2025 start
Let’s see what a 44-year-old quarterback returning from nearly five years off looked like in his first start back.
As of this time last week (depending on when you’re actually reading this, I suppose), we had no idea that Shane Steichen had even called his old buddy Philip Rivers about the open Colts QB job. In five short days, Rivers flew to Indianapolis for a workout, signed to the team’s practice squad and then was named the starting quarterback — and he came oh so close to a win over the 10-3 Seahawks in Seattle. What a story it could have been.
Rivers went 18-for-27 for 120 yards Sunday, throwing a touchdown pass and an interception. But the story of Rivers’ 2025 debut isn’t so much how Rivers looked but rather what the Colts’ offense looked like around him.
From Weeks 1 to 14, the Colts were under center on 29.7% of their plays. The fewest under-center snaps they’d taken in a single game was 14. Against the Seahawks, the Colts took exactly one snap under center — good for 1.7% of their plays. The Colts’ 6.5 yards per play from under center this season still leads the league, despite their lone under-center play against Seattle losing 3 yards.
Let me emphasize that point: This was, and remains, the best under-center team in football. The running game, in particular, is a strength. At 5.5 yards per rush, the Colts are comfortably ahead of the second-place Rams (5.1). They also have the Rams beat in success rate at 52.9% to 52.5%. And unlike the Rams, who major in one run, the Colts are highly versatile from under center. They operate a wide range of concepts with a wider set of tags and motions to those runs. With every week, they have changed.
But with Rivers at quarterback, the Colts almost completely abandoned the under-center running game. Rivers simply isn’t explosive enough to get from the center’s rear to the mesh point on runs off tackle. This is a similar issue to what the Falcons had in 2024 with Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury, and the Colts used the same solution the Falcons did: They went to the pistol.
0:50
Philip Rivers returns to the NFL after five years
Stephen Holder breaks down Philip Rivers’ return to the Colts.
The Colts had only seven pistol snaps against the Seahawks, but that belies how much they truly relied on the formation. They lined up in the pistol then motioned out of it right at the snap; they lined up in the shotgun then motioned a receiver into a pistol-like alignment. These snaps get charted as gun snaps — not pistol — but were clearly a critical part of the Colts’ offensive approach. In lieu of getting under center and pounding the rock — and in replacement of many of their QB run alternatives — the Colts used backfield motion to create eye candy and conflict for run defenders.
It was a valiant effort. But the Colts averaged only 3.2 yards per carry, their second-worst outing of the season. They had a negative EPA per carry and a success rate of only 36.7% — far below their season average of 45.7% and certainly below that incredible 52.9% under-center figure.
It wasn’t all because Rivers couldn’t get under center. Starting right tackle Braden Smith was out because of a concussion, then starting left tackle Bernhard Raimann left the game because of an elbow injury. Missing multiple offensive linemen hurts your running game, and Indy’s running game has been hurting. This was the Colts’ fourth consecutive game with a negative EPA per carry despite having a negative game in only two of their first 10 contests. The running game was struggling long before Rivers got there. Oh, and the Colts were playing the Seahawks, who have a terrific run defense.
But Rivers was signed for his playbook knowledge. Ostensibly, he knows and executes more of the offense than third-stringer Riley Leonard. Yet the Colts had to amputate a key segment of the playbook in Rivers’ first game.
With the abandonment of the under-center running game came a white flag on play-action. The Colts had two play-action dropbacks, and their previous low was six. Rivers had one attempt for one completion on play-action. It gained 3 yards. The other dropback was a sack, because Rivers fell down.
The play-action pass is not as integral to the Colts as it is for teams such as the Lions, Seahawks, Bills or 49ers, but Indianapolis was still seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in success rate and 13th in EPA per dropback. The play-action passing game helped create explosive passes.
The Colts had no explosive passing game Sunday. Again, they were playing against Seattle, a very good defense. And it was without both of their starting tackles, so we should not be too quick to condemn the offense. But Rivers’ longest pass was 17 yards. It was the first game this season in which a Colts quarterback failed to complete a pass longer than 20 yards, which includes Leonard’s fill-in action against the Jaguars last week.
Rivers had one chance at a big gain and should have converted. Josh Downs hit a lovely stutter-go down the left sideline and opened into space, but Rivers was under some pressure and had to throw with anticipation. Had Downs been practicing with Rivers all season, he’d have grown accustomed to a flat-footed quarterback without much arm strength throwing soft, arcing balls early in the down — but he hasn’t. When Downs looked for the pass, he was likely looking for a flatter and faster trajectory, and accordingly never located the ball.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
Nobody is at fault. This is a classic miscommunication between a quarterback and receiver who haven’t spent much time together. But the impact of chemistry is often magnified on throws between 10 and 30 yards — those deep-breaking routes or placement throws between layers of the defense. Rivers doesn’t yet have a connection with Downs, which makes a knacky route such as this stutter-go hard to synchronize.
Rivers attempted only two passes 20-plus yards downfield — an off-script contested heave to Jonathan Taylor on what’s typically a cursory vertical route up the sideline and the game-ending interception in desperation mode. That throw was also one of only four first-down dropbacks for Rivers; the Colts ran the ball on their other 19 for the fourth-highest first-down run rate of any team in any game this season.
Rivers’ 4.7 air yards per attempt was 417th of 452 QB games this season (eighth percentile). His average time to throw of 2.51 seconds was 440th (third percentile). This was a game in the vein of current Aaron Rodgers, end-of-career Matt Ryan, end-of-career Ben Roethlisberger and, well, end-of-career Philip Rivers. Or what we thought was his end of career.
Rivers must be decisive and distribute the ball underneath because he cannot reasonably reset in the pocket and manage pressure. Take this tight-window throw to rookie tight end Tyler Warren over the middle. Ideally, Rivers whistles this ball over linebacker Ernest Jones IV (No. 13) and beats safety Julian Love (No. 20) from closing on the catch point. But he hitches twice, clearly a little off rhythm from the concept, and doesn’t have the ball velocity to account for the lost time, even after Love slips. Love arrives at the catch point with the football and breaks up the pass.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
But here’s a through route between the hashes for Warren. Look at how quickly Rivers gets this ball out. The pass is over the offensive line by the time Warren turns, and even though it lacks speed, it still beats Jones because of how early Rivers released it. Warren has to slow and wait for the ball, whereas a line drive likely produces much more yards after catch, but we can’t ask that from Rivers at this stage.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 16, 2025
Rivers’ arm is one of the weakest in the NFL right now, if not the weakest. It will take truly superlative levels of anticipation and accuracy to make that velocity work, and a quarterback forced to play at that speed is liable to throw picks into coverage rotations or leave bigger plays on the table. Given those limitations, it’s understandable that the Colts never even bothered with the under-center, play-action game. Rivers is not getting a good ball down there anyway.
After one game of Rivers, albeit against a great defense without two starting tackles, I’d play Leonard if and when he’s healthy. I’d play Anthony Richardson Sr. if and when he’s healthy. Rivers exceeded my expectations for a 44-year-old right off his couch, and the Colts are clearly pot committed to this Hail Mary of a personnel change — Steichen has already committed to Rivers as his Week 16 starter. It’s probably water under the bridge in a lost season anyway. His limitations take too many cards out of Steichen’s playcalling deck for my liking.
I do get it, though. They were 47 seconds away from a 44-year-old leading a winning drive against a three-loss Seahawks team in Seattle mere days after unretiring. That would have been pretty sick.
From y’all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — but especially on Monday each week — to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Kyle: “Do you think the Jets would be better served to try to trade up for Mendoza in the upcoming draft or wait until later to draft a developmental QB (maybe pair with a Kyler Murray-type) and then go all in on the more heralded 2027 draft for QB?”
I generally eschew draft questions until I’ve actually gotten a handle on the class, but in the case of Fernando Mendoza, I’ve seen enough: He’s pretty clearly a QB worthy of the No. 1 pick. He’s not a special athlete nor is he one of those “generational” throwers we see once every five years, but he’s very much a passer in the Jared Goff/Sam Bradford mold of first overall picks. He can make all the throws.
I don’t know where the Jets will end up in the draft order, but they should try to trade up for Mendoza, give him a season and potentially take another QB in the first round in 2027 should next season end in another disaster.
From Jeff: “Is there even a glimmer of hope for the Niners defense? Or better yet how bad could they realistically be before the offense can’t overcome it anymore? 25th? 22nd?”
Yes, there is. The 49ers’ defense is definitely bad, but it’s the right sort of bad to get hot in the postseason. The Niners play extremely fast and hit everything that moves. Their pass rush has been a travesty since Nick Bosa‘s injury, but with Yetur Gross-Matos returning and Bryce Huff in hand, they do have players who can win a critical late down. Robert Saleh has not blitzed heavily during the regular season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change in the playoffs.
The 49ers’ defense isn’t good, and if and when they’re bounced from the postseason, it will almost certainly be the reason. But it’s not absurd to think San Francisco could string together three plucky games of turnover generation.
From Tom: “Is Brian Schottenheimer a good coach?”
Yes. Stop playing for field goal attempts, though.
From Zach: “How screwed are the Packers?”
Extremely. If Christian Watson has to miss time, that’s the Packers’ second-best receiver (behind injured Tucker Kraft) out for a critical stretch. Micah Parsons, who tore his left ACL on Sunday, was not just the only dangerous player on that defensive line, but he had such gravity as a game-plan dictator. Offensive playbooks expand in his absence.
I’d put the Packers third behind the Bears and Lions in the NFC North power rankings right now. I don’t see a path for them to make the Super Bowl short of quarterback Jordan Love going truly thermonuclear.
1:38
Can Packers make a deep playoff run without Micah Parsons?
Rex Ryan and Dan Orlovsky express their doubts about Packers’ playoff hopes without Micah Parsons.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
0 for 9: That’s Sam Darnold’s stats throwing into tight windows over the past three weeks.
If we include games against the Titans in Week 12 and Rams in Week 11, he’s 2-of-20 for 69 yards, one touchdown and two picks.
Before that game against the Rams, Darnold was the best tight-window thrower in football. He had a 106.7 passer rating — the next closest quarterback was Lamar Jackson at 102.9 on half as many attempts. Darnold completed 54.3% of his passes for a completion percentage over expectation of 21.7%. Darnold’s 0.36 EPA per tight window throw led the league.
I tend to doubt claims such as “X defense broke Y quarterback” — but in watching Darnold over the past month, it’s very easy to tie his current frenetic style of play with how he performed against the Rams. He’s attempting fewer tight-window throws because his confidence is down, and when he attempts them, he throws far less catchable footballs for fear of the four picks he threw against Los Angeles.
Darnold’s best trait is his arm talent, and his career renaissance was predicated on the idea that, despite some shaky decision-making, panic under pressure and unspectacular pre-snap process, he could Make Some Throws. Recently, he is not Making Some Throws, and it seems as if the Seahawks’ offense is barely hanging on.
The rematch with the Rams on Thursday Night Football is approaching. For a lot of marbles!
78.3%: That was the Bears’ defensive success rate Sunday against the Browns. It is, somehow, only the second-best game of the season by defensive success rate.
(The best game belongs to the Chiefs’ defense in Week 7 against the Raiders. The Chiefs won that game 31-0, whereas the Bears won theirs 31-3.)
This, of course, is more a reflection on the Browns’ offense than anything else. Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders chased his encouraging performance against the Titans last week with a dreadful one against the Bears, who had his head spinning with coverage rotations and blitzes.
Perhaps more significantly, the Browns had a rushing success rate of 7.7% in this game — one positive rush on 13 carries. Again, somehow, this is not the worst number of the season — the Saints had zero successful runs on nine carries in Week 9 against the Rams. Any contest with an absent running game will spell disaster for the offense as a whole, so it’s hard to evaluate anything from the Browns in this one.
One thing I will note: The Bears’ defense has had stiffer performances than expected against the Eagles, Packers (yes, 28 points, but it gave up a couple of explosive plays and was solid down to down) and Browns over recent weeks. These performances coincide with returns to health for linebacker T.J. Edwards and cornerback Jaylon Johnson, though the latter is still working up to form. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is expected to return to practice this week; and edge rusher Austin Booker is starting to have a bigger impact as well after his return from injury in Week 9.
It was hard to rank the Bears as a top NFC contender a month ago because of their underlying defensive metrics. Over the past month, the Bears’ defense is climbing my power rankings — cautiously for now. But there’s room to make me buy in before playoff time.
46-yard line: That was the Bills’ average starting field position after kickoffs in their win against the Patriots.
It was the fifth-best starting field position after kickoffs this season! Ray Davis, the Bills’ kickoff returner, took four returns for 164 yards: 45, 23, 38 and 58 yards. The 58-yarder, right out of the halftime locker room, set the Bills up for their first touchdown to cut the deficit to 24-14. The Bills are now second in the league in yards per kickoff return, behind only the Jets.
The Bills had only one takeaway in this game, and that interception (at the Bills’ 9-yard line) actually hurt their field position. On drives without takeaways, the Bills’ average drive started at the 43-yard line — the fourth-best field position a team has had in a game this season. That is a testament not just to Davis but to the Bills’ defense, which got off the field fast (when it wasn’t giving up massive touchdown runs to Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson) to keep field position in the Bills’ favor.
Big team win Sunday! No such thing as a 21-point comeback without a full roster effort.
Monday Night Move-on: Miami’s Tua issue
The Dolphins have a Tua Tagovailoa problem.
This is not new, of course. Tagovailoa’s extremely polarizing playstyle has created a hyper-fragile offense in Miami. The uber-anticipatory throws are great when they work and disastrous when they don’t. The one-read reliance is great when things are open and unacceptable when they aren’t. The numbers in 2022 and 2023 were gaudy, but the limits against top defenses were obvious.
Yet Tagovailoa’s production was good enough for long enough that the Dolphins extended him on a market-rate deal in the 2024 offseason, despite his injury history and scheme reliance. That deal — a four-year, $212.4 million extension — tagged on to the fifth-year option on which Tagovailoa was already playing. In other words, this season is really the first year of Tagovailoa’s deal.
As such, there is no easy out for the upcoming offseason. There is still so much money tied to Tagovailoa’s signing bonus ($42 million) and 2025 option bonus ($25 million). To cut Tagovailoa outright before the league year began would cost the Dolphins more than $99 million in dead cap, which would obviously never happen. With a post-June 1 designation and by picking up his 2026 option right before cutting him, the Dolphins could get Tagovailoa’s dead cap hit in 2026 down to about $54 million. That’s functionally the same as Tagovailoa’s cap hit ($56 million) if he remains on the roster.
The lack of monetary return on a release puts the Dolphins in a weird spot. In cutting Tagovailoa, the Dolphins would create tons of dead cap. They will presumably cut Tyreek Hill, too, as the injured receiver was already tailing off before his Week 3 injury and has an enormous 2026 cap figure incoming. Miami will have some cap room with which to work (releasing Hill would provide significant savings), but not much — certainly not enough for a Kyler Murray trade, for example.
The new general manager (whoever that ends up being) will, of course, look to cut Tagovailoa’s deal to start their rebuild. The Dolphins can sign a stopgap quarterback (Malik Willis, Daniel Jones off an Achilles injury, Marcus Mariota) and draft a young passer in the late first or early second round, as the Giants did with Jaxson Dart this season.
But the head coach might be on a different timeline. In reading the tea leaves, it seems more likely than not that Mike McDaniel remains the Dolphins’ coach given how plucky the team has been as of late (four-game winning streak prior to Monday’s loss). He’s still an excellent schemer, and his guys are playing hard. The recent surge in Miami’s rushing attack is proof of concept that McDaniel, if not dedicating all of his offensive resources toward scheming around a limited quarterback, can really draw up an offense. If McDaniel has one more year on the job, would he want to tread water on a veteran retread and mid-tier rookie passer?
Tagovailoa is actually a great veteran QB2 to keep behind a rookie passer. He knows the system well and excels in it. His biggest knocks (injury history, volatile play style) are familiar for career backups. By keeping Tagovailoa rostered in 2026, the Dolphins can still get substantial 2027 cap relief with a post-June 1 cut — $19 million in dead cap relative to a $53 million cap hit. That 2027 offseason was almost meant to be the trapdoor out of Tagovailoa’s deal if things went south.
That’s why there’s no good solution in 2026. Cut Tagovailoa now, and he’ll probably end up a valuable backup or spot starter for another team playing on the veterans minimum — all while you’re paying him out in dead cap. Keep him on the roster, and he’ll almost certainly be better than a rookie, leaving the Dolphins with an awkward developmental season. What if Tagovailoa plays well enough to hold off the rookie and start another season, but he’s not nearly good enough to justify $50-million-plus cap numbers? That’s a very large range to hit, and he easily could.
Next season is almost inevitably a tread-water year in Miami no matter what it does with Tagovailoa’s contract. Short of a big success with a rookie quarterback, the lack of overall roster talent will hard cap the Dolphins’ season. It’s rare to see a team move on so quickly from a massive quarterback extension — the Broncos doing so with Russell Wilson in 2024 is the only one that immediately jumps to mind. The Broncos ended up hitting on the No. 6 QB in a loaded draft class when they snagged Bo Nix with the 12th pick, but that sort of opportunity isn’t likely coming down the mountain of the 2026 NFL draft class.
I know it seems like the end of Tagovailoa in Miami — in fact, it has seemed like the end for Tagovailoa in Miami for quite some time. How the t’s are crossed and i’s dotted remains to be riddled out by the new general manager (and potentially new head coach).
