Reasons for optimism and pessimism for all 10 NBA teams that played on Christmas

As befits one of the crown jewels of the NBA’s calendar, this year’s Christmas slate featured almost all of the best teams in the league. With apologies to the East-leading Detroit Pistons, it’s likely that most of the teams that will play deep into next spring also played in front of a national audience on Christmas.

So after a thrilling set of holiday games, let’s take a survey of these 10 teams and analyze the reasons to be hopeful or concerned about their championship ambitions, with one representative statistic for each. They are ordered here by their probability of reaching the Finals, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.

Jump to a team:
CLE | DAL | DEN | GSW
HOU | LAL | MIN
NYK | OKC | SAS

Number that inspires hope: 9.9

Oklahoma City is allowing 9.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average this season, according to Basketball Reference. The previous record, going back to 1973-74 (the first year with recorded defensive ratings), is from the 2003-04 Spurs, at 8.8 points below average.

A season after the Thunder won the title largely because they boasted the NBA’s best defense, that unit has reached a historically unprecedented level in 2025-26.

Number that inspires concern: 12%

Oklahoma City’s lopsided schedule has been a discussion point, but it’s worth emphasizing just how easy its early slate was: During the Thunder’s 24-1 start, only three of their 25 games (12%) came against Detroit, New York or teams in the top six in the West. But 21 of their last 57 games (37%) are scheduled against those top-tier teams.

After losses to the Spurs (three times, including on Christmas) and Timberwolves, the Thunder are now 3-4 with a minus-0.6 point differential against the other best teams in the league, with one of those wins coming in double overtime against the Rockets. For comparison, the Thunder are 23-1 with a plus-18.2 scoring margin against all other teams.

The defending champions remain the clear title favorite regardless. But they’ll likely have to beat multiple elite teams in the playoffs — and that won’t come nearly as easily as the routine blowouts against non-elite competition that have built up their record point differential.

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Number that inspires hope: 40%

Wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are combining to make 40% of their 3-pointers, with all three at 38% or better. That’s a big step up from last season, when that trio was at 35.7% and only Anunoby was making his 3s at an above-average rate.

It’s hard to overstate how important this trend is if it continues: If defenses can’t play off the Knicks’ three wings, then they can’t easily help against Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, New York’s two leading scorers. In particular, the frequent opponent strategy of defending Hart with a center to match a forward against Towns can’t work if Hart is nailing so many of his resulting open 3s.

Number that inspires concern: 40%

Before last week, Mitchell Robinson was just 6-for-27 on free throws, or 22%. He’s since gone 10-for-13, boosting his overall season average to 40%, but that’s still a worrisome rate. His size and offensive rebounding prowess make Robinson a vital member of this Knicks squad; New York has a plus-8.5 net rating with him on the floor this year, excelling both when Robinson is the lone big and when he plays in a Twin Towers alignment with Towns.

It would be a huge blow to the Knicks’ playoff chances if opponents can knock Robinson — a career 39% free throw shooter in the playoffs — off the floor with a Hack-a-Mitch tactic.

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Number that inspires hope: Negative-1.1

The Nuggets are finally holding steady when Nikola Jokic leaves the floor, after years of heavy losses without him. Here is Denver’s net rating over the past five seasons with Jokic on the bench:

The Nuggets’ offseason additions deserve most of the credit here: Jonas Valanciunas is a solid backup center behind the three-time MVP, and Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. have also helped stabilize the bench.

This improvement is especially impressive because Aaron Gordon — who has led the frontcourt when Jokic rested in previous postseasons — hasn’t played in more than a month due to a hamstring strain. That means 89% of Denver’s non-Jokic minutes have come with Gordon also on the bench. That’s a great sign for Denver’s chances of maintaining this new level in non-Jokic minutes in the playoffs.

Number that inspires concern: 12%

At the moment, the Nuggets boast the most efficient offense in league history. But can the Denver defense hold up enough to win another title? Jokic & Co. rank only 17th on defense, in part because a league-high 12% of their opponents’ shot attempts are valuable corner 3s, per Cleaning the Glass. They’re making 37% of those attempts, which is about league average from the corners.

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Number that inspires hope: 43%

Thanks to Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun and a generally massive rotation, the Rockets’ offensive rebounding rate is 43% higher than the league average this season, which is by far the best margin in NBA history. In an era with relatively low offensive rebounding rates, Houston has the highest rate since 1994-95, according to Basketball Reference, and one of the 10 best on record. (Offensive rebound data goes back to 1973-74.)

And here’s a fun fact for Rockets fans: The previous record for league-adjusted offensive rebounding rate belonged to the 2015-16 Thunder, who grabbed offensive rebounds 31% more frequently than the NBA average. Those extra chances helped the Thunder push the 73-9 Warriors to Game 7 in the conference finals, with only a Klay Thompson heater preventing a massive upset. Perhaps this outlier skill could help the Rockets in another showdown a decade later.

Number that inspires concern: 26%

Among 174 players with at least 100 jump shots this season, Amen Thompson ranks last with a 26% effective field goal percentage on jumpers, while Sengun ranks 163rd at 42%.

Though new Rocket Kevin Durant leads the team in scoring, the team’s ultimate playoff hopes might rest on the development of Sengun and Thompson, the young duo with a bright future in Houston. And while both players have improved in various ways this season — Sengun should make his second All-Star team — and rank second and third on the team in scoring, they still struggle to score away from the basket.

Other Rockets, such as Durant and second-year guard Reed Sheppard, are knockdown shooters. But crunch time in the playoffs could be tricky with two non-shooters on the floor, or even a third if Adams joins for an edge on the boards.

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Number that inspires hope: 2

While six teams in the West still have 10 losses or fewer, only two in the East do. That means that even at 17-15, Cleveland is still just 1.5 games out of a top-four seed and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Translate their record to the Western Conference, and they’d already be four games out of a top-four seed.

Before a loss in Chicago last week, Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson invoked the memory of the 2021-22 Boston Celtics as another talented team that took a while to jell: Those Celtics started 25-25, then finished the regular season on a 26-6 stretch and reached the Finals. One factor that aided those Celtics’ run — but Atkinson didn’t mention — was weak conference competition, as the top-seeded Miami Heat went just 53-29.

Given Cleveland’s rotten start in 2025-26, the team’s biggest source of hope is that the East will offer a similarly forgiving path this year.

Number that inspires concern: $22 million

The Cavaliers are the only team above the second apron this year, and they’re not even close to that financial threshold, at just over $22 million north of the line. That’s not just a point of concern for owner Dan Gilbert, who’s paying top dollar for an underachieving team; it’s also a problem for the on-court product, because it means the Cavaliers have fewer options to improve their roster and get back on track with in-season transactions. They can’t take back more money in a trade than they send out, they can’t aggregate salaries in a trade, and they can’t sign any buyout players whose pre-buyout salary was more than the league average.

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Number that inspires hope: 101.7

The Thunder’s historically great defense is allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. When Victor Wembanyama is on the floor, the Spurs are allowing 101.7.

Among players averaging 15-plus minutes in 15-plus games this year, the top four players in individual defensive rating are on the Thunder. Next is Wembanyama, who elevates an otherwise below-average defense into a fearsome terror by himself.

Number that inspires concern: 28.8%

Out of 28 guards averaging at least 20 points per 36 minutes this season (minimum 15 games), only four are shooting 30% or worse on 3-pointers: Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Booker and TJ McConnell. The two young Spurs on that list are a combined 28.8% from distance, including an 0-for-3 showing on Christmas.

Thus far, all those long-range misfires haven’t slowed the Spurs down. In fact, lineups with Castle and Harper playing together have a massive plus-23.0 net rating, with a good offense and stifling defense.

In a very small sample, moreover, lineups with Castle, Harper and Wembanyama playing together have been so dominant that the numbers are hard to believe: a plus-51.1 net rating or, in raw numbers, a plus-59 scoring margin in 55 minutes.

Nevertheless, those unsightly 3-point numbers from Castle and Harper provide a potential warning sign for the playoffs, when smart, locked-in defenses will crowd Wembanyama’s space inside and force his young teammates to make shots from the perimeter. Whether they can may determine whether San Antonio is a true threat to reach the Finals this year, or whether the Spurs need more seasoning before they’re ready to win the West.

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Number that inspires hope: 111.0

The Thunder are the only Western Conference team with a better defensive rating than the Warriors’ 111.0. Draymond Green isn’t shy about celebrating the recent championship editions of the Warriors as defensive teams, and he’s not wrong: Their defense ranked first, second, 11th and second in their four championship seasons. With that precedent in mind, the Warriors still profile as sleeper contenders in 2025-26.

Number that inspires concern: 42

The flip side of the Warriors’ defensive strength, however, is an offensive weakness that has kept Golden State hovering around .500: The Warriors rank just 23rd in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass, which is the worst mark of the Stephen Curry era (not counting the injury-ravaged 2019-20 campaign). One chief culprit is a lack of easy buckets, as the Warriors are scoring just 42 points per game in the paint — the fewest for any team except the Nets.

Because of their strength on the perimeter, the Warriors have never been the most paint-heavy team, but they’ve never ranked at the bottom of the league when successful, either. During their four-year peak from 2014-15 through 2017-18, they ranked second, ninth, seventh and 16th in points in the paint.

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Number that inspires hope: 11.2

For all the chatter about how the Timberwolves need a true point guard, after giving 38-year-old Mike Conley’s starting spot to Donte DiVincenzo, their new starting lineup has been just fine. More than fine, in fact — in a league-high 264 minutes, the five-man unit of DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert has a plus-11.2 net rating.

For reference, only three five-man lineups with at least 250 minutes last season had a better net rating than plus-11.2, and their teams — Boston, Oklahoma City and Indiana — either entered the 2024-25 playoffs as favorites or reached the Finals.

Number that inspires concern: 18.4

There is, however, one situation in which Minnesota’s lack of a true point guard stands out: The Timberwolves have a clutch turnover rate of 18.4%, which is by far the worst in the league. The only other teams above 14% are the Clippers and Trail Blazers.

Turnover rate tends to decrease in the clutch, as teams take more free throws and use more one-on-one play. But the opposite is true for the Timberwolves, who rank 13th in overall turnover rate but suffer from a clutch-specific problem.

Those late-game giveaways have directly contributed to Timberwolves losses, like a last-minute collapse against Phoenix that kept them out of the NBA Cup quarterfinals. They can’t afford to sacrifice possessions in close games in the playoffs like they have until now.

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Number that inspires hope: 10-0

Clutch performance tends to be mostly random; the best predictor of clutch winning percentage is overall winning percentage, because good teams overall tend to also be good in the clutch. So there’s dissonance between the Lakers’ 10-0 record in clutch games and 9-10 record in all other contests.

But if there ever were a team that could consistently overachieve in close games, it would be a Lakers squad with three elite creators and the best free-throw differential in the league. The Lakers won’t wow anyone with their overall numbers, but presumably no Western Conference contender would want to face Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves in the final minutes of a tie game.

To wit: While the Lakers haven’t played the Nuggets yet and their only games against the Thunder and Rockets were losses by 29 points and 23 points on Christmas, respectively, they’re 1-1 against the Spurs this season. Their loss against San Antonio was a blowout in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but their win came by two points when Doncic sank a tie-breaking 3-pointer with two minutes left.

Number that inspires concern: 4.9

Speaking of those overall numbers: The Lakers’ net rating says they “should” have about 14.1 wins, according to Cleaning the Glass, instead of their actual 19. That 4.9-win gap is by far the largest in the league.

Simply put, there is no precedent for a team with such a mediocre resume winning the title: The Lakers are being outscored by 0.5 points per game, and in the modern playoff format (since 1983-84), the champion with the worst point differential was the 1994-95 Rockets, at plus-2.1. (Those Rockets famously traded for Clyde Drexler during the season, but they actually dropped from 30-17 with a plus-3.1 differential before the trade to 17-18 with a plus-0.9 differential after.)

However, multiple recent finalists have caught fire in the playoffs after a middling regular season. The 2022-23 Heat were outscored by 0.3 points per game, and both the 2023-24 Mavericks and 2024-25 Pacers were at plus-2.2 points apiece.

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Number that inspires hope: 12.0

The Mavericks infamously started the season without a true point guard, leading to copious offensive struggles, but Ryan Nembhard has been a revelation: Since the undrafted rookie joined the starting lineup on November 28, Dallas’ offensive rating has jumped by 12.0 points per 100 possessions.

Before then, the Mavericks were 5-14 and ranked 30th in offense, 29th in effective field-goal percentage and 28th in turnover rate. But with Nembhard running the offense, Dallas is 7-6 with the No. 9 offense, No. 8 eFG% and No. 9 turnover rate.

Number that inspires concern: 98

More than any other team on this list, the Mavericks are playing for the future rather than the present. So it’s a major concern that 21-year-old Dereck Lively II, who looks like the team’s long-term center, played just 55 games as a rookie, 36 games last season and seven games before his 2025-26 campaign ended early due to foot surgery. In all, that’s only 98 games, or 40% of the available games in three NBA seasons.

Lively, Cooper Flagg and possibly Nembhard should form a great young core that can grow together over the course of a decade. But it’s growing harder to count on Lively to stay on the court.