One stat that will make or break 2026 for all 15 NL teams

Let’s take a break from the free agent signings, the trade rumors and the holiday cheer to dig into some cold, hard facts. We’re going to pick one stat from the 2025 season for each MLB team and examine how that number will make or break the 2026 season for that team.

We’ll start with the National League and then return with the American League.

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The number: 17

This may be one of the most amazing stats of the year: 17 different pitchers recorded a save for the Diamondbacks. Yes, that’s a record (the 2021 Rays and 2024 Dodgers each had 14). It wasn’t by design, of course. A.J. Puk started the season as Arizona’s closer and got injured after eight appearances and four saves. Justin Martinez picked up five saves before injuring his elbow. Shelby Miller earned 10 saves before he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline. The Diamondbacks finished 27th in bullpen ERA and 29th in win probability added by relievers.

Did the Diamondbacks miss their window that began with the surprising run to the World Series in 2023? They led the majors in runs in 2024 but missed the playoffs after losing a tiebreaker to the Mets and Braves. They had another good offense in 2025 but dropped to 80-82. It hasn’t been for lack of trying: They signed Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery and Corbin Burnes for a combined $337.5 million, but in five combined seasons so far, those starters accumulated just 1.1 WAR, with Burnes likely to miss all or most of 2026.

Arizona will need to address its rotation, but the bullpen needs an overhaul as well. As general manager Mike Hazen put it bluntly during the winter meetings: The Diamondbacks need pitching. Settling on one closer would be a good start.

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The number: 38

That’s the estimated number of runs Braves shortstops created, via FanGraphs’ wOBA formula, as Nick Allen and friends collectively hit .222/.281/.268 with just 18 extra-base hits. That 38 runs created were the lowest of any position in the majors in 2025 and the second lowest for the shortstop position over the past five seasons. (Tigers shortstops created 37 runs in 2024.) It was the fewest extra-base hits for any position since Rangers left fielders remarkably had just 16 extra-base hits in 2022 (11 home runs, five doubles).

The Braves signed Ha-Seong Kim to a one-year contract to take over at shortstop. Kim got a late-season 24-game run with the Braves after they claimed him off waivers from the Rays. At his best in 2022 and 2023 with the Padres, Kim put together back-to-back 5-WAR seasons on the strength of excellent defensive metrics at both shortstop (2022) and second base (2023) while producing above-average OBP. The defense and offense both slipped in 2024 before he tore his labrum in August, and then he didn’t excel on either side of the ball in his 48 games in 2025.

What to expect in 2026? If he hits like he did in 2024 (.233/.330/.370), that’s still about a 30-run improvement over what the Braves received from their 2025 shortstops. That’s about three wins of new offense.

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The number: 39.1

The Cubs ranked first in position-player WAR via Baseball Reference — by a significant margin: 39.1 to 31.8 for the New York Yankees, who finished second in the metric. FanGraphs WAR wasn’t quite as generous to Chicago, ranking the Yankees first at 34.3 and the Cubs third at 31.1, but aside from debating the vast difference in evaluation here between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, it holds that the Cubs’ position group had an exceptional season in 2025.

While the Cubs focus on improving the pitching, a fair question: Can they expect the same level of performance from their position group in 2026? They’ll lose Kyle Tucker in free agency and even though he slumped in the second half due to injuries, he still compiled 4.6 WAR. Pete Crow-Armstrong (6.0 WAR despite a .287 OBP) and Nico Hoerner (6.2 WAR despite just seven home runs) were extremely valuable as well.

Crow-Armstrong’s season stands out: He’s just the second player to post a 6-WAR season with an OBP under .300 (Kevin Kiermaier, a similarly talented defensive center fielder, did it in 2015) and much of his production came early in the season. Only nine others even had a 5-WAR season with a sub .300-mark and eight of those were shortstops. Hoerner, meanwhile, was the first player since 2014 to post a 6-WAR season with single-digit home runs. He could be hard-pressed to post the same defensive metrics or hit .297 again. Those two might be as vital to the Cubs’ division hopes as adding pitching.

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The number: 51

The Reds made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013, mostly on the strength of their starting rotation. Indeed, despite playing in the second-best home run park via Statcast metrics, the Reds received just 51 home runs from their outfielders (including hitting just 25 at home from the three positions). Cincinnati’s outfielders finished 21st in the majors in homers and 20th in OPS.

The Reds know they need power, which is why they were in on Kyle Schwarber, but reports indicated that pursuit was more of a one-off, with ownership believing the Ohio-born Schwarber would sell tickets. (You know what else helps sell tickets? Winning games. But we digress.) Noelvi Marte moved to the outfield in the second half last season and has some power potential but will have to improve his control of the strike zone. The other outfielders on the roster don’t project as 20-homer hitters.

As a team, the Reds finished tied for last in the majors in average exit velocity, so the lack of teamwide power won’t be any easy fix with swing changes or just elevating the ball more often. They will probably have to go outside the organization to improve their power, including perhaps trading a pitcher to land a bat, especially because apparently there was big money available for only Schwarber.

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The number: 119

There were a lot of bad numbers we could have picked for the Rockies, but let’s just go with the big one: 119 losses, tied for third most in a season since 1900. Since 2019, they lead the majors in losses, with 31 more than the Pirates. They have a new president of baseball operations in Paul DePodesta, who has spent the past 10 years with Cleveland … the Cleveland Browns. He then hired Josh Byrnes, the former GM of the Diamondbacks and Padres who spent the past 11 seasons overseeing scouting and player development for the Dodgers, as the new GM.

The new front office won’t be able to turn things around overnight. What might be realistic expectations for 2026? Since 2000, 18 other teams have lost at least 106 games in a season. Leaving aside the 2019 Tigers and Orioles, since the 2020 season was the COVID-shortened one, the other 16 teams improved by an average of 14 wins the following season. That would get the Rockies up to 57 wins. Feels about right. There’s no way they can be so bad again … right?

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The number: 30.7

Certainly, the bullpen was the big issue in 2025, which the Dodgers addressed by signing top available closer Edwin Diaz. There are still plenty of power arms in L.A.’s pen, too; expect a much better season from that group. So, let’s go with 30.7 as a key number — the average weighted age via Baseball Reference (based on playing time) of Dodgers position players in 2025, making it the oldest group in the majors. It was still an effective group, thanks in large part to Shohei Ohtani, as only the Yankees scored more runs than L.A.

If there’s a reason the Dodgers are beatable in 2026, however, it will be regression from this group as age starts catching up to some of the key performers. The Dodgers have dropped from 906 runs in 2023 to 842 in 2024 to 825 in 2025 — remember, that’s despite adding Ohtani in 2024. Freddie Freeman is still great but will be entering his age-36 season; Max Muncy is 36; Mookie Betts will be 33, coming off his worst season; Teoscar Hernandez will be 33, coming off a .284 OBP. The Dodgers added to the bullpen, but let’s see if they look to boost the offense — or at least get a little younger.

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The number: 62

That’s the major-league-worst RBI total (tied with the Baltimore Orioles) from Marlins first basemen last season. They also ranked next-to-last in the majors in home runs (15) and 27th in OPS (.663). This has been an ongoing issue for the Marlins. The last 2-WAR season they received from their regular first baseman came from Justin Bour in 2017, and before that Gaby Sanchez in 2011, and the last 3-WAR season came from Derrek Lee in 2002 (the only one in franchise history). Indeed, Lee’s four-year run from 2000 to 2003 was the only time the Marlins had consecutive 2-WAR seasons from a starting first baseman.

So who gets the job in 2026? Eric Wagaman got the most starts there in 2025, but he’s a 28-year-old journeyman who just produced a minus-0.4 WAR season. He’s not the answer. Backup catcher Liam Hicks, who slugged .346, got the second most starts there.

While there is a common assumption that finding first-base production is easy enough, the Marlins have proved that’s not the case. Ending the revolving door and finding a multiyear answer at the position should be a priority for the rest of this offseason.

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The number: .279

The Brewers hit .279 with runners in scoring position, second best in the majors behind the Blue Jays’ .292 average, and it is a key reason Milwaukee finished third in runs scored despite ranking 22nd in home runs. That .279 average was 21 points higher than the Brewers’ overall mark of .258 (the average gain with runners in scoring position among all teams was a 10-point increase). Leading the way: Brice Turang hit .368 with RISP (compared to .288 overall) while Christian Yelich hit .304, a 40-point increase from his .264 overall average.

Analysts will tell you that hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t — for the most part — a repeatable skill. Check how the top two teams in batting average with runners in scoring position since 2021 fared the following season:

2024 Diamondbacks: .285 to .249 (scored 95 fewer runs)
2024 Royals: .282 to .255 (scored 84 fewer runs)
2023 Orioles: .287 to .251 (scored 21 fewer runs)
2023 Rays: .285 to .212 (scored 256 fewer runs)
2022 Dodgers: .272 to .276 (scored 59 more runs)
2022 Astros: .270 to .270 (scored 90 more runs)
2021 Astros: .272 to .270 (scored 126 fewer runs)
2021 Blue Jays: .270 to .258 (scored 71 fewer runs)

Keep in mind that the MLB overall batting average has hovered between .243 and .248 since 2021. The good news for the Brewers is they’ve been consistent in this category, hitting .268 in 2024 (fifth in the majors) and .269 in 2023 (eighth). They also improved from 21st in the majors in strikeouts in 2024 to fifth in 2025, another reason they improved even more in 2025. A low strikeout rate doesn’t always translate to continued success, however: The Royals struck out the fewest times in the majors last season and still regressed from that high RISP average in 2024.

Bottom line: The Brewers scored 806 runs in 2025, their most since 1999. That total may be hard to repeat in 2026.

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The number: 796

The Mets ranked 27th in the majors in innings with 796 from their starting pitchers. That’s not necessarily an automatic negative — the Brewers ranked 26th and the Dodgers 28th, and those two played in the NLCS — but in the Mets’ case, there were repercussions. The bullpen, pitching a ton of innings early in the season, was great for two months, but then struggled over the final four months. Relievers Reed Garrett, Danny Young, Max Kranick and Dedniel Nunez all went down for the season with arm injuries.

That led former Mets reliever Adam Ottavino, who pitched for the club in 2024 under manager Carlos Mendoza, to declare that Mendoza “has no idea what he’s doing when it comes to bullpen guys and how to keep them healthy or even how to care about them at all.”

The Mets will have to rebuild their bullpen from the top down. Closer Edwin Diaz signed with the Dodgers after the Mets had earlier signed Devin Williams. To get better results out of the bullpen, they will need more innings from their starters. But with rookies Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat all potentially in the rotation and presumably facing limited innings, that may be difficult to achieve without pushing the holdover starters a little deeper into games — or signing a starter in free agency who can carry a heavier workload, like Framber Valdez.

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The number: minus-38

With Kyle Schwarber back in the fold, the Phillies will once again roll out a big three of Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Those three combined for plus-77 runs created above average; the rest of the lineup was 38 runs below average. That was good enough for the Phillies to finish eighth in runs scored, but the lack of lineup balance has manifested itself with offensive struggles in the postseason the past two years. Philadelphia depends too much on Schwarber and Harper both being hot at the right time.

Given that Schwarber, Harper and Turner are each entering their age-33 seasons, relying so much on those three is an increasingly dangerous game. Schwarber will certainly be hard-pressed to match his 2025 numbers and Harper is apparently hoping a unique blood therapy program — where a third of his blood was drawn out, passed through a filtration and ozonation device and then returned to his body — will help him bounce back from his lowest OBP and slugging totals since joining the Phillies in 2019.

Anyway … how can the Phillies improve their offense in 2026? They need a left fielder and — once again — would love to upgrade on Nick Castellanos and his .294 OBP in right field. Justin Crawford will be given every opportunity to earn a starting spot in the outfield, although his lack of power suggests he won’t be an impact hitter right away.

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The number: 583

Even by Pirates standards, 2025 was a woeful season at the plate. Their 583 runs scored were fewest in the majors as they hit .231 (28th in the majors) and 117 home runs (last in the majors by 31 home runs), grounded into the third-most double plays and ranked in the bottom 10 in strikeouts. And you wonder why Paul Skenes went just 10-10 despite a 1.97 ERA.

The problem is this has been going on for years. The Pirates’ team batting averages since 2020: .220, .236, .222, .239, .234, .231. Ugh. No, batting average is hardly the key measure these days, but the Pirates have to hit for a higher average, especially since PNC Park is never going to be a big home run park. They haven’t finished higher than 10th in the NL in either average or home runs since 2016 — a decade of bad offense.

This is all related to player development and scouting. Since 2018, position players Travis Swaggerty, Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis and Termarr Johnson were all drafted in the top 10. Johnson is still in the minors, but the other three didn’t reach expectations. There is a potential franchise savior on the rise, however: Konnor Griffin, the No. 9 pick in 2024, who crushed his way through three levels in the minors in 2025 to become the top prospect in the game.

They’ll need more than Griffin, however, which the Pirates acknowledged with pursuits of Kyle Schwarber and Josh Naylor in free agency. At some point, making “strong offers” doesn’t pass for good enough PR. They’ll have to actually reel in a big free agent if they want an improved offense to support their rotation.

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The number: 3.03

The Padres led the majors in both bullpen ERA (3.03) and bullpen win probability added (10.68) while ranking high in other categories (third in strikeout rate, first in lowest batting average and first in lowest OPS). In terms of win probability added (WPA), it was one of the best bullpens this century, ranking 12th overall since 2000. Given some of the current holes on the team — a rotation that has lost Dylan Cease and will presumably lose Michael King, with Yu Darvish already out for the season — the bullpen will have to be the crucial ingredient to success again in 2026, even with closer Robert Suarez heading to Atlanta.

Repeating that dominance isn’t a sure thing. Of the other 18 teams since 2000 who had a bullpen WPA of 10.0 or higher and played a full season the following year, the average decline was 7.3 wins, in terms of WPA. Only one of those teams improved the following season: The 2023 Brewers went from 11.73 WPA to 13.14 in 2024.

Most of those great teams had a lights-out closer and that was sort of the case for the Padres. Suarez saved 40 games in 45 chances, which, while an excellent save percentage, isn’t historic. It was more the Padres’ depth that made their pen so good. Plus, they have an ace in the hole: Mason Miller, acquired from the A’s at the trade deadline, will be in San Diego for a full season and take over as the closer, as the Padres announced he’ll remain a reliever following speculation that they would move him to the rotation. Jason Adam is expected to be healthy after missing the end of the season when he tore a left quad. This pen should be great again. The Padres will need it to be.

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The number: 52

The Giants ranked 27th in the majors in home runs from left-handed hitters. Some of that low total was a result of Oracle Park, one of the most difficult home run parks for left-handed hitters, but mostly it was due to a lack of power from the left side, with Rafael Devers hitting 20 of those 52 home runs. Having him for the entire season will help, but the Giants’ other three top power hitters were Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos, all lower-average, right-handed hitters who either strike out too much (Adames and Chapman) or don’t walk enough (Ramos). That made it easier for teams to match up against the middle of the lineup.

Rookie first baseman/DH Bryce Eldridge is the Giants’ big hope from the left side. He’s just 21 years old and debuted late last season, although a little more polish in Triple-A might be in order. Schwarber would have been a nice addition for San Francisco. Maybe Kyle Tucker is the answer to fill a hole in the outfield. Maybe there is a trade for a lefty-hitting second baseman with power (Brandon Lowe or Jazz Chisholm Jr. would fit). No matter the fix, the Giants need more pop from the left side.

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The number: 2.7

The number we really wanted to use here was 991,084. That’s the decline in home attendance for the Cardinals since 2023. Losing nearly a million fans over a two-year span is absolutely devastating to the bottom line of the organization, but that attendance figure is related to the number above: 2.7 was Brendan Donovan’s bWAR in 2025 … which led the team. The Cardinals were the only team in the majors without a 3-win player. The last time they didn’t have at least one player earn 3 WAR? 1903. This is a team without stars — and thus the dramatic decline in fan interest.

The Cardinals are 232-254 (.477) over the past three postseason-less seasons. It was the worst three-year span for the Cardinals since an identical 232-254 record from 1988 to 1990. The Cardinals and new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom have been clear about their rebuilding goals: At the winter meetings, Bloom said he’s listening to offers on anyone on the roster, including Donovan, who has been “pretty popular” in trade asks. This might mean another step back in 2026.

To get back to the winning ways Cardinals fans expect, they’re going to need to develop some stars. The last generation — Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II — hasn’t gotten there yet, and while that group is still young, the potential star power is waning (other than Winn’s defense). The good news is that Kiley McDaniel’s updated prospect ranking from August featured five Cardinals in the top 100, with shortstop J.J. Wetherholt the highest at No. 14. Even his profile, though, is more hit over power, and he’ll be moving to second base with Wynn at shortstop. The Cardinals will need this new group of top prospects — including starter Liam Doyle and catcher Rainiel Rodriguez — to mature quickly.

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The number: .268

The Nationals pitching staff ranked 29th in batting average allowed with that .268 mark. They also finished 28th in strikeout rate (19.9%) and 24th in walk rate (9.0%). To point out the obvious: The pitchers struggled.

New pitching coach Simon Mathews, a former minor league pitcher, will have his work cut out for him to generate some improvement. Just 30 years old, Mathews last played professionally in 2019, and then worked at a couple of performance facilities, spent four years in the Reds’ minor league system and was the Reds’ assistant pitching coach in 2025.

The Nationals didn’t excel at anything on the mound this past season: They didn’t strike out enough batters, walked too many and didn’t limit hits (or home runs). Whew. There’s nowhere to go but up, that’s for sure, although that will be even more difficult if MacKenzie Gore is traded. Jake Irvin (9-13, 5.70 ERA, 38 home runs allowed) and Mitchell Parker (9-16, 5.68, 25 home runs) just don’t have premium stuff, but along with Gore, they’re the only returning starters with 100 innings. Good luck, Simon.