Betting 'Sunday Night Football': Why the over hits in San Francisco, CMC tops DFS options
Dec 28, 2025, 10:55 AM ET Sunday’s Week 17 slate wraps up with the Chicago Bears visiting the San Francisco 49ers on “Sunday Night Football.” The Bears have won back-to-back games and clinched the NFC North by virtue of the Green Bay Packers‘ loss on Saturday. The 49ers have won five straight and have also…
Sunday’s Week 17 slate wraps up with the Chicago Bears visiting the San Francisco 49ers on “Sunday Night Football.”
The Bears have won back-to-back games and clinched the NFC North by virtue of the Green Bay Packers‘ loss on Saturday. The 49ers have won five straight and have also clinched a playoff spot.
Both teams will be looking to improve their playoff positioning, with the Bears already guaranteed a home game.
The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites Sunday night.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza and Pamela Maldonado offer their picks, prop bets, daily fantasy sports plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to:
Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Game bet
Total points OVER 51.5 (-112)
Maldonado: This matchup screams efficiency plus volume. Both offenses are among the top three in plays per game and explosive plays, while both defenses struggle to generate pressure, which creates clean pocket passing, extended drives and red zone opportunities. The Bears’ rushing success keeps them live, and San Francisco’s passing efficiency finishes drives. A one-score script could also invite late scoring.
Notable player props, bets
1:47
Bell: McCaffrey is ‘ridiculously consistent’ in fantasy
Stephania Bell breaks down Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy value after an impressive Week 16.
Brock Purdy OVER 253.5 yards passing (-113)
Bowen: Purdy has thrown for 295 yards in back-to-back games, and Kyle Shanahan will have answers for the Bears’ zone coverages. Defined throws, plus catch-and-run concepts here.
Brock Purdy OVER 11.5 rushing yard (-115)
Loza: Purdy might not be considered a mobile QB, but he has registered at least 11 rushing yards in five of seven games this season. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense has allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing QBs. The 49ers signal-caller should get loose for upwards of 14 rushing yards (his average on the season) on Sunday night.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
1:53
Why George Kittle ranks No. 1 among TE’s in Week 17
Daniel Dopp and Stephania Bell review George Kittle’s Week 16 fantasy performance and injury status ahead of Week 17.
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Christian McCaffrey ($17,700). Let’s take the run game matchup versus the Chicago defense, plus the steady, dual-threat volume with McCaffrey in Shanahan’s offense. McCaffrey has seen at least 23 touches in four straight games, with four or more receptions in three.
Also in my lineup: Colston Loveland ($4,800). Loveland is a lower-tier flex in the lineup who could provide really good value. Loveland has seen at least five targets in five straight games, with a touchdown grab in two. And coach Ben Johnson can set up Loveland as a boundary receiver to create matchups versus the 49ers’ secondary.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Caleb Williams ($15,000) has gone over 200 passing yards in his past two games and has thrown six TDs over his past three. He’s also the QB8 in total rushing yards (averaging over 24 per game). In what’s projected to be a close and high-scoring contest, Williams should post top-10 positional fantasy numbers in prime time.
Also in my lineup: Jauan Jennings ($12,900) has been money in the red area of the field, drawing nine red zone targets (T-WR7) and registering five scores (T-WR1) since Purdy returned from injury in Week 11. With Ricky Pearsall still nicked up and George Kittle dealing with an ankle issue, Jennings figures to have a big night against the Bears’ secondary.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Christian McCaffrey ($17,700) has the highest raw ceiling here. The Bears allow 4.8 yards per carry to RBs (28th). With Kittle’s status uncertain, McCaffrey’s role expands either way: more rushing efficiency if Kittle plays, or increased target share if he doesn’t.
Also in my lineup: Caleb Williams ($10,000) benefits from the cleanest pocket matchup he has seen. San Francisco is 30th in pressure rate and last in sack rate. Williams’ efficiency spikes dramatically when kept clean, giving him passing and rushing equity in a potential back-and-forth script.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
-
The 49ers have covered five straight as favorites entering SNF.
-
The 49ers are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season.
-
The Bears are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games.
