How all 17 weeks of the NFL season led us here: Barnwell sorts what mattered and what didn't
Bill BarnwellDec 29, 2025, 09:00 AM ET Close Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X’s and O’s, offseason transactions and so much more. He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with…
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Bill Barnwell
Each week of the NFL campaign is like its own mini season. The league is doing its best to spread its wings from the traditional Thursday/Sunday/Monday schedule, but with the vast majority of games taking place in a Sunday afternoon firehose of football each week, the stories coming out of each weekend’s games seem more meaningful than they do in pro baseball, basketball or hockey, where the next matchup and its takeaways are usually only a day or two away.
But do all of those stories or takeaways hold up over the course of the entire season?
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Let’s examine that very idea. I’m going to run through each week of the NFL season — from Week 1 through Week 17 — and identify three stories that were being told after that slate of games. One will be something that seemed meaningful at the time and turned out to be just that. The second will be a story that flew under the radar before revealing itself to be meaningful by the time we got to the end of December. And the third will be a story that seemed significant when it happened, only to end up being a fluke or something more irrelevant to the broader, seasonlong stories of 2025.
I’ll go in chronological order, so we’ll start with what happened in Week 1 and work all the way to the games we saw over the past few days as part of Week 17. What mattered? What didn’t? And what seems like a bigger deal now than it did in the moment?
Jump to:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4
Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8
Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12
Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15
Week 16 | Week 17
Week 1
Mattered then, matters now: Lions get overwhelmed by the Packers. It took a garbage-time touchdown to make the final score look respectable, but a 27-13 shellacking by the Packers seemed to hint that the 2025 version of the Lions might not be quite as dominant as the team that went 15-2 in 2024. The Lions couldn’t run the ball, turning their 22 carries into just 46 yards, and the Packers were able to attack the interior of Detroit’s offensive line for negative plays and pressures of quarterback Jared Goff, who struggled badly under duress.
Those have been consistent problems in the Lions’ losses this season. Every team is going to post gaudier rushing stats in its victories by virtue of running out the clock with a lead, but the Lions were 13th in success rate on the ground in their wins. They were dead last (32.2%) in their losses, even compared to how effective everyone else’s run game was during their respective defeats. Injuries and inconsistent play helped opposing defenses attack the likes of Tate Ratledge and Trystan Colon up front. And Goff’s 12.0 QBR when pressured is 25th in the NFL.
At 8-8, the Lions took a major step back for the first time under coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Raiders 20, Patriots 13. This was probably the least representative game of the season in terms of the result and what it suggested about the future — but it made an impact. Geno Smith threw for 362 yards in his first start with the Raiders, Brock Bowers ran off an easy 103-yard game before leaving with a tweaked knee, and a Pete Carroll-led defense held Drake Maye and the Patriots to 13 points. This seemed like a game between teams hoping to surprise with a potential wild-card berth in the AFC, and the Raiders had struck the first blow.
Of course, these teams have gone in drastically different directions since. Bowers spent two months trying to get right, and the offense never recovered. Smith and Carroll are likely to be one-and-done in Las Vegas. The Patriots quickly turned things around, and with the help of one of the easiest schedules in modern NFL history, they’ve gone 13-3 and won the AFC East with a week to spare.
Why this game matters, of course, is something nobody could have expected back in September. If the Patriots win this game against one of the worst teams in the league, they’d be 14-2 and the 1-seed in the AFC right now, in position for a first-round bye. As it stands, they’ll be the second seed in the conference behind the Broncos, who have the same 13-3 mark as the Pats. The difference between the two is their record in common games. The Broncos are 6-0 in games against opponents who went up against the Patriots this season. The Pats are 5-1 in those games, and that lone loss, of course, is to the Raiders.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: J.J. McCarthy, NFC Player of the Week. Even at the time, Vikings quarterback McCarthy winning Player of the Week for his performance during a topsy-turvy NFL debut was controversial. McCarthy had thrown a pick-six to Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright and done nothing on offense for the vast majority of the contest, but he was lights out in the fourth quarter, going 6-of-8 for 87 yards with two touchdown passes, plus a 14-yard rushing score.
Vikings fans thought they had landed the latest in a series of successful quarterbacks off the Kevin O’Connell assembly line, but that victory was McCarthy’s peak in 2025. He has looked unplayably bad for stretches, and while there have been some positive games against truly awful NFC East defenses, McCarthy’s 36.2 Total QBR would rank 29th in the league if the 2024 first-round pick had thrown enough passes to qualify. McCarthy has also missed time because of a high ankle sprain, a concussion and most recently a hairline fracture in his hand. If he doesn’t make it back for Week 18, McCarthy will have missed 25 of his first 34 possible starts as a pro.
This game also seemed like just another close win for the Vikings, who had run a gaudy record in one-score games under O’Connell in 2022 (9-0) and 2024 (8-1). They’re a more realistic 4-3 in those same games this season. Minnesota fell all the way to 4-8 before going on a four-game winning streak over the past month, buoyed by three games against NFC East competition and a six-takeaway win over the Lions on Thursday night.
A deliriously excited Bears fan base left Soldier Field dejected that night in Week 1. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s new offense looked great on the opening drive, but the Bears couldn’t move the ball as the game wore on. And while a late score got them within three points, Chicago couldn’t pull out a miracle. Things have improved, and often it has been through late-game performances from Williams and Johnson’s offensive scheme. The Bears are 7-2 in one-score games since the loss in the opener.
Week 2
Mattered then, matters now: Chiefs lose their second straight close game. After posting the best record in one-score games (10-0) in NFL history in 2024, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had earned the right to win games their own way. Even looking past the prior season, the Chiefs and their legendary quarterback seemed inevitable. It took something truly spectacular, such as the Eagles’ pass rush in the prior season’s Super Bowl, to overcome a Chiefs team that seemed like it would always pull out the close ones.
Instead, after losing to the Chargers the prior week in Brazil, the Chiefs weren’t able to pull out another one-score game against the Eagles at home. This one wasn’t as close as it seemed, as it took a Tyquan Thornton score with three minutes to go to bring the Chiefs within three points, at which point Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense ran out the clock with a tush push to end the proceedings.
The Chiefs went on a two-game winning streak after starting 0-2, but the issues they dealt with early in the season lingered. Mahomes turned the ball over too often in key spots. The running game couldn’t produce any explosive plays. The pass rush didn’t get home often enough, and the secondary couldn’t hold up when the blitz failed. And a year after the Chiefs always seemed to find a way to pull out a victory when the game was tight, their opponents seemed to beat them to the punch. Coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer after a narrow loss to the Broncos on Christmas Day.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Jayden Daniels suffers a minor knee injury late in a loss to the Packers. Coming off a scintillating rookie season, Daniels and his Commanders were seen as potential Super Bowl contenders after their run to the NFC title game in 2024. Daniels made it through his debut year unscathed, but late in a disappointing loss to the Packers, he suffered what was characterized at the time as a day-to-day knee injury.
It was unclear whether Daniels would miss time, but he sat out the next two games before returning in a win over the Chargers. Injuries ended up ruining his season, as Daniels then missed a game because of a hamstring injury before returning and promptly dislocating his left elbow late in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. Daniels returned again in Week 14, but after suffering another elbow injury in a 31-0 loss to the Vikings, the Commanders shut down their franchise quarterback for the season. Owing to the quarterback concerns and a truly horrific defense, the Commanders have gone from 12-5 to 4-12.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Colts score 29 in a comeback win over the Broncos. Daniel Jones and this Indy offense rolled the Dolphins in Week 1, but when they racked up 473 yards and 29 points in a dramatic victory over a great Broncos defense in Week 2, the Colts were no longer flying under the radar. Jonathan Taylor was dominant, posting 215 yards from scrimmage, and Jones threw for 316 yards and a touchdown. It took a leverage call on Broncos linebacker Dondrea Tillman to wipe a 60-yard missed field goal off the board and give Spencer Shrader a second chance at a game winner, but his 45-yard kick pushed the Colts to 2-0.
Indy’s offense stunned the league for half a season, and through the Week 8 win over the Titans, a 7-1 Colts team averaged a whopping 3.5 points per drive, trailing only the 2007 Patriots for the best mark by any offense in the NFL through the first eight games of a season since 2000. The Colts have been a league-average offense since that week, as the offensive line has battled injuries and a remarkable turnover rate has regressed toward the mean. Jones was already beginning to show signs of cratering before tearing an Achilles in December, which stunningly opened the door for Philip Rivers to take over as quarterback.
The Colts have lost six straight, and unless they upset the Texans in Houston next week, Indy will fail to turn its 7-1 start into a winning record, let alone a playoff berth.
Week 3
Mattered then, matters now: Rams special teams costs them a win over the Eagles. During a stretch when it seemed like NFL defenses had cracked the code to block field goals on a weekly basis, the Eagles essentially swung a critical NFC game by blocking a pair of Joshua Karty field goals in the fourth quarter, including a 44-yard attempt that would have given the Rams a 29-27 win on the final snap of the game, only for Jordan Davis to return it for a 44-yard touchdown.
The Rams might have the potential to be the league’s most dominant offense and defense, but special teams have ailed coach Sean McVay’s team in its losses. Two weeks after this defeat, Karty had an extra point blocked and missed a field goal in a 26-23 loss to the 49ers. The Seahawks fueled their fourth-quarter comeback win earlier this month with a Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown and a short field, courtesy of a 32-yard punt by Ethan Evans. Harrison Mevis, who took over for the deposed Karty at midseason, missed a 48-yard kick that would have given the Rams their lead back with 2:11 to go in a game Los Angeles eventually lost in overtime.
McVay responded to that defeat by firing special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn, marking the first time he has resorted to firing one of his coordinators during a season. The Rams have swapped out their kicker and now their coordinator, but it remains to be seen whether their special teams woes will linger into January. Subpar special teams in key moments are the biggest reason the Rams will likely be spending their postseason on the road.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Panthers dominate the Falcons in a 30-0 victory. After turning the ball over five times during an 0-2 start, Bryce Young and the Panthers seemed to have lost whatever optimism they had earned during a solid end to the 2024 campaign. With the Bucs starting 2-0 and about to face the Jets, it seemed like the Panthers could fall out of the NFC South race before the calendar even turned to October.
Instead, while the Bucs beat the Jets and got to 3-0, the Panthers turned their season around with a blowout victory over the Falcons. Chau Smith-Wade chipped in with a pick-six, and while Young wasn’t spectacular, he went 16-of-24 for 121 yards, taking just one sack and protecting the football. The Panthers didn’t turn the ball over, and their defense was good enough to shut down Bijan Robinson throughout the game.
When Carolina has protected the football, good things have followed. The Panthers are 7-2 when they avoid multi-giveaway games. They’re 1-6 when turning the ball over two times or more, a record they added to in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, when two short fields from a Chuba Hubbard fumble and a Young interception set a profligate Seattle offense up for a pair of touchdowns.
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Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Texans start 0-3 with a 17-10 loss to the Jaguars. Every year after Week 2, I write a column about how Week 3 is essentially a playoff game for teams that have started 0-2. While it’s a little easier in the 14-playoff team era, the only team since 2002 that had made it to the postseason after starting 0-3 was the 2018 Texans, who went 11-2 from that point forward to win the AFC South.
The 2025 Texans have joined the club, following their 0-3 start by going 11-2 over the ensuing 13 games. They’ll get a chance to make it to 12-2 with a win over Philip Rivers and the Colts next week. Since that 0-3 start, they’ve fielded the league’s best defense by points allowed per drive (1.4) and EPA per play (minus-0.10).
And while the offense hasn’t always been great, it has needed to be impressive for only short stretches to pull out victories. The C.J. Stroud-led offense didn’t have a single drive over 35 yards after the first quarter in Week 17, but two long touchdown passes early in the game and two missed kicks by Los Angeles kicker Cameron Dicker were enough to swing a 20-16 victory over the Chargers.
It’s fair to suggest that the Texans were unlucky to start 0-3; the three losses were by a combined 13 points, and if the Bucs win next week, all three will have come against eventual playoff teams. Most teams that start 0-3 don’t have the juice to turn things around. Even without Stroud for a month in the middle of the season, the Texans had enough on defense to flip their season. They’re going to be a very difficult out come January.
Week 4
Mattered then, matters now: Joe Alt goes down injured for the Chargers. While the Chargers entered the season without star left tackle Rashawn Slater after the Pro Bowler tore a patellar tendon during training camp, no team was better protected against an injury to a left tackle. Alt played left tackle during his time at Notre Dame, and after a banner rookie season on the right side, the Chargers had a few weeks of practice time to reacclimate the first-round pick as he moved to protect Justin Herbert‘s blind side.
And then, after a 3-0 start, Alt followed Slater to the sideline. The 22-year-old suffered a high ankle sprain in the Week 4 loss to the Giants, and while he returned later in the season, Alt lasted only one and a half more games before another ankle injury ended his sophomore season. The Chargers might have believed they had the best tackle duo in football, but those guys combined to play just 313 offensive snaps in 2025. (Alt still managed to earn a Pro Bowl nod last week, which raises serious questions about whether anyone actually pays attention to offensive linemen.)
The entire offense shifted. A surprisingly pass-happy attack turtled up and leaned back into the run, even without running backs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton for most of the season. Herbert’s Total QBR fell from 77.0 with Alt on the field to 54.1 without him, which would be the difference between second and 20th in Total QBR over a full season. And Herbert has been smacked around behind Jamaree Salyer, Bobby Hart and Trevor Penning, as he has been hit 206 times, way ahead of any other quarterback in the league. Herbert and the Chargers were still good enough to earn a postseason berth, but their ceiling is capped with replacement-level play at both tackle spots.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Bears pull out a dramatic victory over the Raiders. After getting their season back on track with a 31-14 victory over the Cowboys, the Bears spent most of Week 4 trailing the Raiders. It took a D’Andre Swift rushing touchdown with 1:34 to go to put the Bears up 25-24, and after a failed 2-point try, the Bears had to keep the Raiders out of field goal range to hold on to their lead.
They didn’t, but it didn’t matter. The Raiders quickly got into deep field goal range, at which point Las Vegas coach Pete Carroll decided to chew up the remaining clock and attempt a 54-yard field goal. For the second week in a row, though, a game was decided by a blocked kick at the buzzer, as Josh Blackwell blocked Daniel Carlson‘s attempt to give the Bears a one-point victory.
Does one close victory spur a few others? Maybe, maybe not, but this became the first in a series of dramatic Bears wins late in games. This same team came back from its bye and took advantage of a fumbled Commanders exchange to get the ball back for a winning score. The Bears beat the Bengals on a touchdown with 17 seconds left, put together late comeback wins over the Giants and Vikings, and shocked the Packers with an onside kick and winning touchdown in overtime in Week 16. The win over the Raiders was the first sign that fate seemed to be on Chicago’s side in meaningful moments this season.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Chiefs drop 37 on the Ravens. The offense is back on track! There were real concerns about what Mahomes would do on offense early in the season with receivers Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy banged up, and after iffy performances against the Chargers and Eagles and an underwhelming win over the Giants, this performance against the Ravens was the first sign the Chiefs might actually be explosive on offense. Mahomes threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns, and with Rice’s return only a couple of games away, there was a world in which the Chiefs were about to become very fun on offense for the first time since 2022.
While there were moments, that dream never really became a reality. The Chiefs were eighth in EPA per play between Week 5 and Mahomes’ season-ending torn ACL against the Chargers. That’s not bad at all, of course, but it’s not the sort of ceiling we know a Chiefs offense can have with Mahomes in the lineup. Worthy has never really seemed right, the run game never got going, the offensive line cycled through injuries at both tackle spots, and Rice didn’t put together a single 100-yard game in regulation before going on injured reserve earlier this month.
Meanwhile, what looked to be a porous Ravens defense eventually righted the ship. It allowed 44 points to the Texans the following week and was lucky to get away with allowing 17 to the Rams in Week 6, but after its subsequent bye, the defense found a groove. The Ravens are sixth in defensive EPA per play since that Week 7 bye, with Kyle Hamilton moving into the box, trade acquisition Alohi Gilman taking more snaps in centerfield and a healthier front seven doing a better job of tackling and maintaining gap responsibilities.
While acknowledging what Derrick Henry did Saturday against the Packers, it’s the defense — not an inconsistent offense — that has mostly driven the Ravens to within one game of winning the AFC North.
Week 5
Mattered then, matters now: Patriots topple the Bills 23-20 in Buffalo. This seemed like a statement win for the Patriots, who were looking to usurp their divisional rivals and end Buffalo’s streak of five consecutive AFC East titles. The Bills got their own version of that win in 2020 when they beat the Pats 24-21 in November, and while it was over Cam Newton as opposed to Tom Brady, the Bills never really looked back. The East was theirs, and after dropping 47 on Bill Belichick’s defense in the 2021 playoffs, they hadn’t really felt threatened by the Pats since.
This was the game in which the worm turned. A Bills team that never seemed to turn the football over somehow coughed it up three times, including once in the red zone. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye went drive-for-drive with Bills QB Josh Allen, racking up 273 yards while doing a better job of protecting the football. Special teams — a liability toward the end of the Belichick era in New England — came through when Andy Borregales hit a 53-yard field goal with 15 seconds left to win the game.
The Bills won the rematch on Dec. 14, but this was suddenly a real rivalry. And when the Bills failed on their two-point try against the Eagles on Sunday afternoon, this Patriots win in Western New York was the biggest reason New England clinched its first division title since Brady’s departure after the 2019 season.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Bo Nix leads a comeback win for the Broncos in Philadelphia. Beating the defending champs obviously matters, of course, but it was tough to see this as some sort of trend for Nix and the Broncos’ offense to follow. After scoring just three points across their first eight drives, Denver came to life in the fourth quarter. Nix led 62-yard and 82-yard touchdown drives to get the Broncos back in the game, and with the Eagles’ offense stuck in neutral, he got the ball back and drove Denver 46 more yards for a winning field goal.
Nix has had his ups and downs this season, but this was the first example of him leading the Broncos back into a game against a good defense in obvious dropback situations. He led comeback victories over lesser defenses in the Jets and Giants over the next two games, got the Broncos in position for a winning field goal over the Texans and led a touchdown drive on the opening possession of overtime against the Commanders. The win over the Eagles was the second in what would become an 11-game winning streak, starting with the Broncos at 2-2 and ending with them atop the AFC.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Baker Mayfield drops 38 points on the Seahawks in a shootout win. We already had an idea that the Seahawks were fielding one of the league’s best defenses, so what Mayfield did on the road in Seattle was special. In a game in which he and Sam Darnold seemed to go back and forth with long scoring drives, Mayfield went 29-of-33 for 379 yards and two touchdowns despite playing without his top two wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. or his lead back in Bucky Irving. Darnold blinked first with a late interception, setting up the Bucs to get to 4-1 with a 38-35 victory.
Given his late-game performances in September, Mayfield was an MVP candidate at this point of the season. Since then, though, he has struggled for consistency and hasn’t been the same sort of driving force late in contests. Mayfield has averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt since this win over the Seahawks, ahead of only Titans rookie Cam Ward among regular starters. Just 29.2% of Mayfield’s pass attempts are turning into first downs, which ranks 29th out of 33 quarterbacks. And Mayfield has nine interceptions over that span, including two in Sunday’s 20-17 loss to the Dolphins.
Week 6
Mattered then, matters now: Bills offense can’t find answers in a frustrating loss to the Falcons. The previous week’s loss to the Patriots was going to loom down the line, but Bills fans could write off the defeat as a multi-turnover aberration from an offense that had turned the ball over just twice over its past 13 games. A road trip to face a Falcons team that had allowed 57 points over its previous two games to Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota was going to cure what ailed Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.
Instead, the Bills mustered only 14 points in a painful loss to a team that they were supposed to beat. Allen went 1-for-6 with two picks on deep throws, as the Falcons played plenty of single-high to slow down the run and weren’t concerned about getting beat by an underwhelming group of Buffalo receivers. The Bills have had better days on offense, and the Falcons’ pass rush turned out to be underrated, but the inability of the receivers to separate has cost the Bills in their losses, including Sunday’s one-point defeat at home against the Eagles.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Titans firing Brian Callahan. I’ll cheat a bit because the Titans didn’t technically fire Callahan until Monday morning, but after a 1-5 start with the sole win coming as a result of a spectacular series of misfortunes to the Cardinals in the second half of a game where Arizona was dominating, there weren’t many reasons to stick with him. The Titans were failing Cam Ward, and their much-ballyhooed investment in their offensive line (including the addition of Bill Callahan, Brian’s dad, as offensive line coach) wasn’t working out.
Ward has been better since Callahan’s departure. Over the second half of the season, he has climbed from 32nd in Total QBR (22.2) to 23rd (45.7), even amid inconsistent offensive line play and while throwing to arguably the league’s worst group of receivers. Most people have understandably stopped watching Tennessee given the 3-13 record, but Ward continues to flash truly tantalizing ability on a weekly basis, even if the plays don’t end in completions. Nobody’s a better candidate to take the sort of second-year leap Drake Maye did between 2024 and 2025 than Ward, but the Titans will need to nail their coaching hires and make the right improvements at receiver. Maybe they can call up Mike Vrabel.
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Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Giants blow out the Eagles. It felt like a coming-out party. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo had impressed in a win over the Chargers two weeks earlier, but in prime time at home against the hated Eagles, their performances seemed like the dawning of a new era of Giants football. Skattebo turned 19 carries into 98 yards and three touchdowns, threatening to run over everyone from Cooper DeJean to Big Dom along the way. Dart went 17-of-25 for 195 yards, ran for another 58 yards and accounted for two touchdowns. The defense was struggling, but with two wins in three games, could the Giants actually make a run if the Eagles collapsed?
It wasn’t in the cards, as this was Brian Daboll’s final win on a Giants sideline. The Giants followed that emotional win over the Eagles with nine consecutive losses. The defense blew a 26-8 fourth-quarter lead against the Broncos the following week. The Eagles blew the Giants out the following week, with Skattebo fracturing his fibula and dislocating his ankle, ending his rookie season.
Dart missed time with a concussion, and while he’s coming off his best game in weeks, he hasn’t looked as convincing as a passer when the Giants have taken the quarterback run game out of the equation. Even after dominating the Raiders on Sunday, Dart ranks 26th in the NFL in Total QBR this season on plays that don’t involve a scramble or a designed run. They’ll try again with Dart, Skattebo and Malik Nabers back in the fold together in 2026, but the new era is yet to really arrive in New York.
Week 7
Mattered then, matters now: The Commanders give up 37 points to the Cowboys’ offense. While Dan Quinn’s defense had already shown cracks during the 3-3 start to the season, this was the game where the defensive woes began to compound and destroy Washington’s chances of competing. The Commanders ranked 18th in EPA per play on defense through the first six games of the season. They’re dead last from Week 7 onward while allowing a whopping 3.1 points per possession. No other team in the NFL has allowed three points per drive over that same timeframe.
The Cowboys did whatever they wanted on offense in their victory, with Javonte Williams running for 116 yards and a score, and CeeDee Lamb racking up 110 receiving yards and a touchdown of his own. The only reason George Pickens didn’t get over 100 yards himself was a 37-yard pass interference penalty by embattled Commanders cornerback Marshon Lattimore in the first quarter, setting up the first of Dallas’ seven scores on offense in a 44-22 victory.
Lattimore might be the best symbol of how Washington’s renaissance under Quinn and Adam Peters has fallen by the wayside. Acquired in 2024 for several draft picks to take over a key role on the outside, Lattimore has never lived up to expectations in Washington. He battled hamstring issues after arriving in town, missing his first month of potential action, then never looked right down the stretch. He was then overwhelmed at corner in 2025 before suffering a torn ACL in midseason. He’s one of the many veterans likely to move on this offseason as the Commanders retool after a disappointing year.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Rams find a way to survive without Puka Nacua. While the Rams were without their star receiver for only one game after he went down injured in the previous week’s win over the Ravens, the absence caused Sean McVay to get creative in an unexpected way. The Rams were set with Davante Adams as their top receiver, and he turned five catches into 35 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-7 victory over the Jaguars, but the story bubbling underneath the surface in Los Angeles was more about how it chose to account for Nacua’s absence.
With a limited depth chart behind Adams, the Rams instead leaned into something McVay had never really used on a regular basis: 13 personnel, getting three tight ends onto the field. The Rams used 13 personnel on a grand total of four snaps between 2023 and 2024, less often than anybody else in the league. They used it 24 times in the win over the Jags alone, and even once Nacua came back, the habit stuck.
The Rams have used 13 personnel on more than 44% of their offensive snaps from Week 7 onward, nearly three times as often as any other offense in the NFL and a stunning stylistic change from a team that was in 11 personnel (three wide receivers) on nearly an every-down basis for most of the McVay era.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Jaguars get blown out by the Rams in London. The other side of this matchup mattered, too. Two weeks after a dramatic victory over the Chiefs at home on “Monday Night Football,” it looked like the Jags had failed to build on what should have been a statement victory. The Seahawks shut down Trevor Lawrence in a 20-12 Week 6 matchup, and in London, the Rams manhandled the Jaguars’ defense in a 35-7 win. The only bright spot was Travis Hunter, who had his first 100-yard game as a receiver in the loss to Los Angeles.
Hunter wouldn’t be seen again, as the first-round pick suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice before Jacksonville returned from the bye. That injury might have turned out to be an unexpected blessing in disguise, as the Jags traded for Jakobi Meyers, who would eventually help transform their offense. Only the 49ers and Rams have averaged more points per drive since that Jaguars loss in London. And as for Lawrence, well, we’ll get to him later.
Week 8
Mattered then, matters now: The Cowboys allow the Broncos to score 44 points in a blowout loss. One week after Dallas scored 44 (with a pick-six on defense) with their own dominant offensive display against the Commanders, the Cowboys’ defense responded by letting an inconsistent Broncos offense drop a Juszczyk (or a Riggins or Rathman) in Denver. Bo Nix threw four touchdown passes, the Broncos ran for 179 yards and two scores, and after an interception on the opening drive, Denver scored on seven of its next eight meaningful possessions.
Was this the game that drove Jerry Jones to desperation at the trade deadline? After the loss, Jones said that they weren’t “one player” away on defense, then made a stunning trade at the deadline by packaging most of the draft capital he got for Micah Parsons to add Quinnen Williams. He can point to a technicality given that the Cowboys also traded for benched Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson, but if there was one game that led Jones to abandon his plan of turning the picks from the Parsons deal into multiple players, it was this one.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Tyler Shough plays his first significant snaps in a 23-3 loss to the Buccaneers. I was impressed with what I saw from Spencer Rattler during the first half of the season, but amid a difficult year and after a rough two-plus quarters against the Bucs, Kellen Moore turned to his potential quarterback of the future in Shough. The second-round pick didn’t do much, going 17-of-30 for 128 yards with an interception without leading a scoring drive in an unmemorable road loss.
Shough took over the starting job the next week and has held his own, going 5-3 for a Saints team that has won each of its past four games. The 26-year-old has been a league-average quarterback by QBR (51.5) over that span, which is more impressive than it sounds given that the Saints have both battled injuries and don’t have a ton around their young quarterback beyond star receiver Chris Olave. Shough has found a connection with his top wideout, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, and is making an impact with his legs.
I’m not sure the Saints can be positive they’ve landed their long-term replacement for Drew Brees, but Shough has certainly done enough to earn another year as the starter in 2026.
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Is Tyler Shough underrated heading into the fantasy playoffs?
Eric Karabell breaks down what impresses him about Tyler Shough, and why the Saints’ rookie is an underrated fantasy quarterback.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Vikings can’t stop the Chargers in a 37-10 blowout. While most of the headlines went toward Carson Wentz playing through a painful labrum tear in what would be his fifth and final game of the season, the Vikings weren’t able to do anything on defense to stop Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. With Joe Alt back in the fold at tackle, Los Angeles didn’t punt once all game, as its only two failed drives ended in a missed field goal and an interception. Kimani Vidal led a rushing attack that racked up 207 yards in an easy victory.
After a dominant 2024 campaign, this was rock bottom for Brian Flores’ defense, which had struggled to create the same sort of havoc with their pressure packages outside of one game against Jake Browning and the Bengals. Strip out the Bengals game, and the Vikes were 25th in EPA per play allowed on defense through this Chargers loss.
The Bengals game also happened to be Andrew Van Ginkel‘s last game in the lineup before missing more than a month with a neck issue. He returned to the mix in the Week 9 win over the Lions, and the Vikings haven’t looked back. Even with fellow star edge rusher Jonathan Greenard slowed and eventually sidelined by a shoulder injury, they’ve jumped to eighth in EPA per play and fifth in points allowed per possession since Van Ginkel’s return. And while the results weren’t always there in terms of wins, the Vikings have won four straight to restore some respectability to a frustrating 2025 campaign.
Week 9
Mattered then, matters now: The Chiefs can’t handle the Bills. While the 28-21 final score looked close, a Chiefs team about to hit its bye never really seemed like it was on the same level as the Bills in Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes went 15-of-34 for 250 yards, running the worst single-game completion percentage of his career and leading an offense that struggled to consistently move the ball. And the Bills went 4-for-4 in the red zone on a day where Josh Allen went 7-of-7 for 62 yards against the same Chiefs blitz that had ended Buffalo’s season the year before.
A three-game Chiefs winning streak came to an end, and facing the most difficult part of the season, Andy Reid’s team collapsed. This game started a stretch of seven losses in eight games, with the one win requiring a comeback and an overtime victory over the Colts. Chiefs fans might have written this off as their annual regular-season loss against the Bills before the team gets hot and beats Buffalo in the postseason, but stunningly, the Chiefs will be watching the playoffs from home this January.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Colts show signs of slowing down for the first time in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers. Six turnovers will do that to you. After a dominant first half of the season, this was the first time that anyone really slowed down Daniel Jones & Co., as the Steelers forced a whopping six takeaways in their victory, five of which came from the Indy offense. The Colts had turned the ball over just four times all season before the defeat.
There were reasons to think that the Colts just had a bad day at the office — they still moved the ball around the takeaways — but this really was the pumpkin game for the offense, which scored 13 of its 20 points in the fourth quarter. Jones turned the ball over twice the following week in an overtime win over the Falcons, with Jonathan Taylor carrying the load, but an offense that had topped 28 points in seven of its first eight games got over that total only once across the subsequent eight contests. Jones’ season and Indianapolis’ future at quarterback was waylaid by his torn Achilles, and after that Falcons victory, the Colts haven’t won since.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Dolphins get blown out at home by the Ravens. If Mike McDaniel had woken up on Halloween and lost his job, I’m not sure the fourth-year coach could have been surprised. One day before, his Dolphins had fallen to 2-7 with a brutal home loss against the Ravens, who dominated throughout in a 28-6 victory. Ownership must have seen a half-empty stadium for much of the fourth quarter and wondered whether that would become a trend during the second half of what was already a lost season in Miami.
Instead, McDaniel didn’t get fired, and the Dolphins began to turn things around. They unexpectedly beat the Bills in front of those same fans the following week, kicking off a four-game winning streak in the process. They’ve subsequently lost two of three, but the fall guy for those struggles appears to be Tua Tagovailoa, who was benched by the organization in December and appears likely to have played his final game in a Dolphins uniform. McDaniel might even be back in 2026, which seemed difficult to imagine as the clock ticked down in Week 9.
Week 10
Mattered then, matters now: The Panthers fail to build on their success with a frustrating loss to the Saints. After stunning the Packers at Lambeau Field the prior week, Dave Canales’ team must have felt like it was heading in the right direction. While the Panthers had been blown out by the Bills in Week 8, they had won four of their previous five games, and they were blessed to host Tyler Shough and a 1-8 Saints team as comfortable favorites in Charlotte.
The Saints instead limited the Panthers to seven points and 175 yards of offense in a 17-7 win, eliminating whatever momentum Carolina was hoping to garner from the previous week’s upset win. And when the Panthers pulled off another notable victory by beating the Rams in Week 13, they came back from their bye week and … immediately lost to the Saints again in New Orleans. The Bucs owe their rivals a favor, as the Saints are the only reason that a Tampa Bay team running on fumes in the second half of 2025 will be competing for a potential division title against the Panthers in Week 18.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: Davis Mills launches a dramatic comeback win over the Jaguars. It felt like Houston’s season was over. The Texans had battled back from their 0-3 start to approach respectability, but with C.J. Stroud sidelined by a concussion in the previous week’s loss to the Broncos, a 3-5 Texans team had little to look forward to. If Texans fans had known that Mills was going to start the next three games, I suspect there would have been plenty of January vacations booked by season-ticket holders in Houston.
Instead, despite trailing 29-10 at the start of the fourth quarter, Mills saved the season. The backup quarterback led three fourth-quarter touchdown drives to earn Houston a 30-29 lead before a Sheldon Rankins scoop-and-score on the final play of the game gave the Texans a bonus touchdown. The Texans haven’t lost since then, beating the likes of the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers along the way. The loss also seemed like it could be crushing for the Jags, but they’ve also won every one of their subsequent games.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Dan Campbell takes over playcalling before a 44-22 Lions win. There were always questions about whether the Lions would struggle on the sideline without departed offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and after an uneven first half of the season under new coordinator John Morton, Campbell seemed to agree. Campbell took over the play sheet before this game against the Commanders, and the results were spectacular: The Lions scored on each of their first eight offensive possessions before running out the clock on the ninth.
Campbell’s takeover didn’t cure what ailed the Lions, though, as the offensive burst was more a product of playing a hopeless Commanders defense than improved playcalling. With Morton at the helm, the Lions ranked fifth in points scored per drive and seventh in EPA per play. And if we leave the Commanders game aside, Detroit’s offense ranks 13th in points scored per drive and 14th in EPA per play since Campbell has taken over playcalling. The Lions will surely pursue a new offensive playcaller in 2026.
Week 11
Mattered then, matters now: Sam Darnold melts down in a 21-19 loss to the Rams. A legitimate MVP candidate heading into his rematch with the team that ended his Vikings career during the previous season’s playoffs, Darnold looked like he was sped up and hoping to avoid sacks after taking nine of them against L.A. last January. Darnold didn’t take any sacks, but he did throw four picks in a rough loss for the Seahawks, who ceded their path to the top of the NFC with the defeat.
The Seahawks reclaimed that spot in their dramatic 38-37 win when these two teams met again in Seattle in Week 16, and Darnold threw two touchdown passes late in the game to help fuel the comeback, but he hasn’t been the same quarterback since that first Rams defeat. Before the four-interception game, Darnold led the league in Total QBR and was averaging 9.9 yards per attempt. Over the ensuing seven games, Darnold has fallen to 27th in Total QBR and is averaging just 7.1 yards per throw.
I can hear Seahawks fans point out that Seattle has gone 6-0 since this loss to Los Angeles, and those wins count. But during the first half of the season, Darnold was playing a significant role in driving Seattle’s victories. And over the past seven weeks, he has been carried by an excellent defense. I would be at least a little concerned about what that means in the postseason.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Eagles struggle on offense but still pull out another victory. Wins don’t need to come with style points, but I’m not sure there has ever been an unhappier fan base to start 8-2 than this year in Philadelphia. One week after a 10-7 win over the Packers, the Eagles mustered just one touchdown in a 16-9 win over the Lions, leaning on a great defense and a generous pass interference call on the final drive of the game to help run the clock out on Detroit.
Wins are wins, but the fans were right to be worried. Frustrations about Kevin Patullo’s offense boiled over in the weeks to come, when the Eagles went on a three-game losing streak, costing them any shot of competing for the top seed in the NFC. The complete absence of competition in the NFC East helped break one of the league’s weirdest trends and earned the Eagles their second straight division title, but against competent-or-better competition, Philly’s offense continues to underwhelm.
The Eagles did absolutely nothing against the Bills in the second half of Sunday’s game, generating just 17 yards of offense after halftime and winning only after Josh Allen missed an open receiver in the end zone on the game-deciding 2-point try.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Cowboys dominate on defense with Quinnen Williams in a big win over the Raiders. For one week, Jerry Jones was a genius. Adding Williams, Logan Wilson and a handful of defenders returning from injury to the mix, the Cowboys finally looked like they had a post-Micah Parsons defense. Playing on “Monday Night Football” in front of a national audience, Williams terrorized Geno Smith and the Raiders’ offense, which mustered only 236 yards in a 33-16 defeat.
The win kicked off a three-game winning streak for the Cowboys, but the defensive turnaround didn’t stick, as Williams and Wilson weren’t enough to solve the myriad of issues the Cowboys have at all three levels. Before the controversial decision to trade first- and second-round picks for Williams at the trade deadline, the Cowboys ranked 31st in points allowed per drive, giving up 2.8 points per possession. And even with the Raiders game in the mix, the Cowboys since that trade are … 30th in points allowed per drive, with opposing teams scoring 2.9 points per drive.
Williams is an upgrade and a talented defensive tackle, but Jones was right: The Cowboys weren’t one player away.
Week 12
Mattered then, matters now: The Bucs allow 34 points in a blowout loss to the Rams. When the Bills scored 44 points on the Buccaneers in a Week 11 shootout, it appeared to be a one-week aberration. But this loss was confirmation that the Bucs’ defense simply wasn’t up to the task this season. Matthew Stafford & Co. scored 31 points in the first half before taking most of the second half off to reflect and film commercials.
Since returning from their Week 10 bye, meanwhile, the Buccaneers rank 28th in both EPA allowed per play and points allowed per drive. They forced three turnovers in the loss to the Bills, but since then, Todd Bowles’ unit has created just four takeaways across the past five games. The division-deciding game against the Panthers in Week 18 — one that could potentially decide Bowles’ future — might come down to whether the Bucs can get back on track and start forcing turnovers with their season on the line.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Browns beat the Raiders 24-10. Any attention lavished on a game between two of the league’s worst teams would have been directed toward rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who was making his first career start. He went 11-of-20 for 209 yards with a touchdown and an interception, the former coming on a short pass to Dylan Sampson, who did most of the work after the catch on a 66-yard score.
Sanders has had his moments in the second half of the season as a starter, but this game really matters because of what it means for 2026. After Sunday’s loss to the Giants, the 2-14 Raiders are in position to land the top pick in next year’s draft. If they had beaten the Browns in this game, though, the Raiders would be in a group of six teams at 3-13. And while I’m not going to sort through the various tiebreakers between those awful franchises, the Raiders would have been drafting behind the Browns, who are instead in position to pick sixth.
1:06
Will Dante Moore or Fernando Mendoza be QB1 in 2026 draft?
Mel Kiper Jr. gives the cases for both Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza to be drafted as the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Trevor Lawrence struggles again before leading an overtime win over the Cardinals. While the Jags were in position to make the playoffs after a win over the Cards took them to 7-4, there were real questions about whether Lawrence was ever going to look comfortable in Liam Coen’s offense. Lawrence had struggled with takeaways, and he turned the ball over four times against a woeful Cardinals defense, with Arizona turning those takeaways into 14 points. The Jags prevailed in overtime, but as of Week 12, Lawrence ranked 26th on the season in Total QBR and 30th in interception rate. He simply wasn’t consistent or reliable enough for a Jaguars team with playoff aspirations.
Since then, Lawrence has been brilliant, with his 84.7 Total QBR ranking third behind only Drake Maye and Brock Purdy. He’s averaging 8.3 yards per attempt, has thrown 12 touchdowns against just one pick and has mostly eliminated the negative plays from his game; Lawrence has taken just 10 sacks over that span. He has also run for 138 yards and four scores while looking completely in control of the offense. If Lawrence had been this guy all season, he would be in the thick of the MVP race. As it stands, he has responded to an awful game against the Cardinals by playing the best football of his career over the past five weeks.
Week 13
Mattered then, matters now: The Broncos stop a Commanders 2-point try to pull out a 27-26 victory. The line between the AFC playoffs running through Denver and another city might come down to one free rusher. Denver’s defense couldn’t stop Marcus Mariota from driving the length of the field for a matching touchdown in overtime, but when Dan Quinn called for a 2-point conversion to end the game, the Broncos stepped up. Jeremy McNichols was going to be free in the flat for the game-winning try, but Nik Bonitto got on Mariota quickly and knocked his pass down at the line, handing the Broncos a one-point win.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Broncos struggling to keep the Commanders out of the end zone. I’ll stick with this game, because the fact that the Commanders even had a chance to win might be telling, too. This was Denver’s first game coming out of the bye, and quietly, the defense hasn’t been quite as impressive as it was before the week off.
The Broncos were second in points allowed per possession before the bye, but that has fallen to 21st across their five ensuing games, a figure that ranked even lower before Vance Joseph’s team got to face third-stringer Chris Oladokun on Christmas. They’ve forced just three takeaways over the past five weeks, which both explains some of their issues and offers a potential path toward improving on that side of the ball in the weeks to come. I wouldn’t be surprised if a pass rush led by Bonitto and Zach Allen dominated a woeful Chargers offensive line in Week 18.
If they don’t, though, the Broncos won’t be hitting the postseason playing their best ball on defense.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Bengals show signs of life in a 32-14 victory over the Ravens. This was Joe Burrow‘s return after missing two months with a toe injury, but the big story for the Bengals was an unexpectedly productive game from their defense. An embattled group forced five takeaways to help secure a comfortable victory on Thanksgiving night.
With the win taking them to 4-8, it seemed like the same Bengals team that got hot late in the 2021 and 2022 seasons could run the table and claim an as-yet-undecided AFC North. Instead, the Bengals lost their next two games, ending their season in the process. The Ravens haven’t exactly been great since then, but after going 2-2 and coming up with an impressive win on the ground over the Packers on Saturday, Baltimore will be the one playing for a division title in Week 18. It’s just unclear whether Lamar Jackson, battling a back injury, will be in the lineup.
Week 14
Mattered then, matters now: The Texans beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. This was supposed to be a must-win game for the Chiefs, who had lost to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving the week before. Beating the Texans would have pushed Kansas City to 7-6 as the league’s banner franchise tried to put together a late-season run to the postseason. Having beaten Houston twice in 2024, the Chiefs were supposed to test an overmatched Texans offensive line with pass pressure.
Instead, the Texans pushed the Chiefs to the brink. The Texans’ defense forced three turnovers and came up with a pair of fourth-down stops in the fourth quarter, including a stuff on fourth-and-1 to set up the game-winning touchdown by Dare Ogunbowale. Houston’s winning streak continued here by beating the team that ended its 2024 season, with its playoff odds taking a major leap forward in the process. And while the Chiefs technically still had some postseason life left, those hopes ended when Mahomes tore an ACL late in a loss to the Chargers the following week.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Titans stop a 2-point try with 1:03 to go to seal a 31-29 victory over the Browns. We’ll hit another game involving the Browns and draft seeding here. Heading into Week 14, the 1-11 Titans were heavy favorites to finish with the top pick in the 2026 draft, with ESPN’s Football Power Index giving them a 47.1% chance of landing the first selection. They wouldn’t use that pick on a quarterback, but as they did in 2016, trading that selection could have earned the Titans multiple first-rounders for moving back.
Instead, the Titans ran all over the Browns, with Tony Pollard turning 25 carries into 161 yards and two touchdowns. Cam Ward and the offense managed just eight first downs across their final 13 possessions of the game, but the Titans converted two Browns turnovers and a blocked punt into 17 points. With Tennessee then beating a Mahomes-less Chiefs team in Week 16, they’re out of the race for the first pick.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: Keisean Nixon‘s interception decides a back-and-forth battle between the Packers and Bears. When Nixon picked off Caleb Williams on fourth-and-1 to seal a 28-21 Packers victory, it looked like the hot-and-cold cornerback had given his team the inside track to claiming the NFC North. At 9-3-1, the Packers jumped ahead of the 9-4 Bears and 8-5 Lions for first place in the division. Having won four straight — including back-to-back wins over those very Bears and Lions — Matt LaFleur’s team was well-positioned to make a deep playoff run in the NFC.
Nothing has gone right since then. Micah Parsons tore an ACL the following week in a loss to the Broncos, depriving the Packers of their top defensive player. Jordan Love left the subsequent rematch against the Bears with a concussion, and the Packers failed to recover an onside kick that would have all but ended the game, opening the door up for a frantic Chicago comeback and a 22-16 defeat. Josh Jacobs is clearly banged up and has barely played the past two weeks. And Derrick Henry then ran all over a Parsons-less defense for 216 yards and four touchdowns on Saturday.
Green Bay is limping into the postseason, and it has fallen from the No. 2 seed all the way to the seventh spot for the third consecutive campaign.
Week 15
Mattered then, matters now: Micah Parsons tears an ACL in a loss to the Broncos. The Parsons injury dramatically shifted the balance of power in the NFC away from Green Bay. Not having their star pass rusher in the lineup — in the weeks since his departure as well as earlier in the season, when the Packers were using him in a part-time role — has been a massive issue for Jeff Hafley’s unit. The Packers are 30th in EPA per play allowed without Parsons on the field across 328 snaps this season, down from 15th with him.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The Lions lose 41-34 to the Rams. Since we’re in mid-December now, it’s tougher for something to really change dramatically between what happened then and how it looks now. This Lions loss might qualify, though. There’s no shame in losing to one of the league’s best teams, so while it would be wrong to say that this loss didn’t matter, it’s realistic to suggest the Lions could have still seen a path to the postseason. The Lions were 8-6 after this loss, and with the Steelers and Vikings to come, a pair of wins would have likely pushed Dan Campbell’s team into the postseason, even if it came as a wild card.
Well, those wins didn’t happen. The Lions couldn’t run the ball or stop the run against the Steelers, who left Detroit with a 29-24 victory. Then, with their season on the line against Max Brosmer on Christmas Day, a frustrating season descended into parody. The Lions turned the ball over six times and lost despite allowing just 3 net yards to a hopeless Vikings offense, extinguishing their playoff chances in the process. Since their Week 8 bye, the Lions have gone 3-1 against the NFC East and 0-6 against everybody else.
0:40
Why Jeff Saturday believes Lions’ Super Bowl window is closing
Jeff Saturday explains why the Lions’ Super Bowl window is starting to close, pointing to Ben Johnson’s departure as a key loss.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Bengals meekly bow out of the postseason race with a 24-0 loss at home. Two weeks after it appeared the Bengals might be able to ride a late-season swing back into the AFC North race, their season ended in embarrassing fashion. Joe Burrow was shut out by the Ravens, and coach Zac Taylor essentially gave up after a pick-six with 7:32 to go put them in a 24-0 hole, running the ball and chewing up most of the remaining clock left. With Burrow seemingly pondering his future, it was fair to wonder whether Taylor might be back in 2026.
With nothing to play for and a pair of bad defenses on the schedule, though, Taylor’s offense has probably done enough to convince the organization to stick with him. After their loss to the Ravens, the Bengals dropped 45 points on the Dolphins and 37 more on the Cardinals, with Burrow topping 300 yards in each contest. I’m not sure those wins against overmatched competition with backup quarterbacks should mean much in the grand scheme of things, but I’m also not a member of the Brown family that owns the team.
Week 16
Mattered then, matters now: The Seahawks launch a massive comeback to beat the Rams in overtime. I expressed my reservations about what we’ve seen from Darnold since that first Rams game earlier, but the well-traveled quarterback did just enough to help his team beat the Rams in an essential rematch. If the Seahawks can hold off the 49ers next week, the NFC playoffs will run through Seattle.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters now: The 49ers drop 48 on the Colts. We’re obviously getting to the point of absurdity with the idea that something could have dramatically shifted between Week 16 and Week 17, but have the 49ers found something truly explosive after their late-season bye? As recently as late November, Brock Purdy was struggling badly, as the 49ers limped to lackluster wins over the Panthers and Browns.
Since returning from the bye, though, the 49ers have scored 37 points against the Titans, 48 against the Colts and 42 against the Bears on Sunday night in a roller-coaster victory. It was easier to write those offensive performances off when the 49ers were playing AFC South teams with nothing to play for, but beating the Bears in a meaningful contest might qualify this as more of a trend.
Purdy started the game with a pick-six, but even without injured tight end George Kittle and star left tackle Trent Williams (who left the game after the interception with a hamstring injury), the fourth-year QB was excellent the rest of the way. He went 24-of-33 for 303 yards with three touchdowns, while Christian McCaffrey turned his 27 touches into 181 yards and a score. There were real questions about whether the 49ers were better off with Mac Jones at quarterback during that ugly win over the Panthers; now, Purdy and the entire offense look like they’re finding their form in advance of next week’s game against Seattle with the conference’s top seed on the line.
Mattered then, didn’t matter in the long run: The Panthers top the Buccaneers 23-20. With the Buccaneers losing to the Dolphins in Week 17, a Panthers victory against the Seahawks would have sealed up the NFC South for Carolina. Instead, after offering some early resistance, the Panthers couldn’t do anything on offense and lost 27-10, and the division will now be decided by the rematch between these two teams in Tampa Bay on Saturday, mostly rendering the result of their Week 16 game moot.
Week 17
Mattered then, matters now: Steelers upset by the Browns 13-6. And now we’ve come all the way through the looking glass. The most important outcome on Sunday might have been what happened in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers were unable to clinch the AFC North title with a win over the Browns. Without suspended wideout DK Metcalf, Aaron Rodgers went 3-for-18 on third and fourth down and scored just three points on two trips to the red zone. The Steelers’ most important goal-to-go sequence of the season ended with a pass to Adam Thielen and three incompletions targeted to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, neither of whom were on the Steelers’ roster before December.
Metcalf will be suspended for the Steelers’ Week 18 division decider against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is also expected to be without tight end Darnell Washington, who broke an arm in the loss and whose absence will limit the formational flexibility of the Steelers, who love to use Washington as part of their 13 personnel packages. A loss next week would keep the Steelers home for the postseason and raise real questions about whether something meaningful needs to change in Pittsburgh.
Didn’t seem to matter then, matters in the future: Bears struggle badly on defense in a 42-38 defeat. I’ll reframe this as something that might matter more in the weeks to come. The headlines will understandably go toward the quarterback play between Brock Purdy and Caleb Williams and what they each did on Sunday night, but this should be another warning sign for Bears fans as they approach the postseason. Chicago’s run game is for real, and Williams has improved this season, but this defense is almost entirely propped up by turnovers.
The Bears did force a pick-six on the opening drive, but they then allowed a 49ers offense that’s down two of its top receivers and lost its Hall of Fame left tackle early to score touchdowns on six of its eight ensuing possessions. This defense continues to be takeaway-or-bust, and with turnovers historically coming less often as better offenses make it to the postseason, I’m not sure Chicago’s defense can continue to survive by stealing the football.
0:30
Purdy’s remarkable scramble ends in 49ers TD
Brock Purdy miraculously evades the defense and finds Kyle Juszczyk in the end zone for the 49ers vs. the Bears.
Mattered then, won’t matter in the future: The Ravens run all over the Packers. While I was wildly impressed by what I saw from the Ravens on the ground against Green Bay, I’m not sure you can expect that sort of performance from Derrick Henry in Week 18 and beyond.
The Ravens ranked 17th in the league in success rate on designed runs heading into the Packers game, and while that’s up from where they were earlier in the season, it’s a reminder that they’ve been way more dependent on explosive plays than they were in past years. They posted a league-best 55.1% success rate on designed runs against the Packers in Week 17, with Henry registering two 25-yard runs and a 30-yard score for good measure.
Can the Ravens keep that up into January? It would be easier with Lamar Jackson, who has a meaningful effect on defensive gravity and the attention paid toward Henry on the ground, but it’s unclear when Baltimore will have its two-time MVP back in the lineup. If it’s Tyler Huntley at quarterback, the Ravens will need another big game from King Henry to top the Steelers and claim the AFC North. We all know Henry’s capable of that sort of performance, but counting on it might be a little too presumptuous.
