Predicting the UFC champions 365 days from now
This has been a year of championship upheaval in the UFC, even if 2025 is ending with belts wrapped around many familiar waists. Of the 11 current UFC men’s and women’s champions, four were titleholders at the start of the year. Two others began 2025 as former champions, and another was in the second year…
This has been a year of championship upheaval in the UFC, even if 2025 is ending with belts wrapped around many familiar waists.
Of the 11 current UFC men’s and women’s champions, four were titleholders at the start of the year. Two others began 2025 as former champions, and another was in the second year of an interim championship reign.
Where’s the upheaval? Only one of the four year-opening titlists, women’s flyweight Valentina Shevchenko, held the belt for the entire year. Alex Pereira lost his light heavyweight belt in March and recaptured it in October. Islam Makhachev ended the year as welterweight champion after entering 2025 with the lightweight belt. Ilia Topuria grabbed the 155-pound title Makhachev vacated after vacating his featherweight gold.
None of those champions was as active as Merab Dvalishvili, who made his first men’s bantamweight title defense in January, his second in June and his third in October. He attempted an unprecedented fourth defense in a calendar year at UFC 323 on Dec. 6 but produced a bitter ending to the final pay-per-view event of 2025, losing the belt to former champion Petr Yan.
Musical chairs, anyone?
Not only is Shevchenko the longest-reigning current champion — she regained the 125-pound title in September 2024 — but she’s also the only one who has made a title defense. The last time the UFC had a single champion with a title defense was May 26, 2007, according to ESPN Research. That night, Chuck Liddell lost the light heavyweight belt to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, leaving the UFC with zero champions with title defenses for over a month (until two champs, middleweight Anderson Silva and lightweight Sean Sherk, won their title fights at UFC 73: Stacked).
Back then, the UFC had five weight classes. MMA is a bustling sport now, with way more moving parts.
There were 21 UFC title bouts in 2025. In 10 of them, the champ retained the belt, including in the heavyweight title fight in October that ended as a no-contest when champion Tom Aspinall could not continue after an eye poke. In eight other title bouts, the challenger dethroned the champion. The other three championship fights were for vacant titles.
Call this a year of multifaceted turnover, but let’s also acknowledge a magnificent turnaround — for me. In each of the past four years around this time, I have boldly predicted who would end the following year as UFC champions. And this was my best year yet.
Heading into 2025, I predicted five fighters would become new champions, and three of those fighters fulfilled my forecast: Aspinall, who began the year as interim heavyweight champion; middleweight Khamzat Chimaev; and women’s bantamweight Kayla Harrison. I predicted that Dvalishvili would lose his title, just not to Yan. (Oh, well.) Of the six year-opening champions whom I picked to end 2025 still in possession of belts, four did — although Makhachev and Topuria conquered new domains. I’m still counting those two among my wins, making me 7-of-11 for the year. Just call me Nostradamus.
I feel emboldened to brag a little here because a year ago, I owned up to my clueless 2024, when I batted .000 with my predictions.
What is in store for 2026? If I’ve learned anything over these past four years, it’s that the number of champions dethroned in a year — the turnover — is always higher than expected. And definitely higher than my annual predictions.
And yet, to demonstrate that I don’t learn from my mistakes, I’m once again going low with my prediction. I say 2026 will end with just four new champions. These four.
1. Light heavyweight: Jirí Procházka
I am aware that Procházka has lost twice to the champion, Alex Pereira, both times by knockout. I wouldn’t expect the result of a potential third meeting to be different, but I don’t expect a third meeting. Pereira said he wants to fight at heavyweight, and at age 38, it’s now or never. If Pereira leaves the 205-pound division, Procházka is the best of the rest. Magomed Ankalaev might have something to say about that because he’s the one who bounced Pereira in March at UFC 313. But I feel like Pereira took Ankalaev’s soul in their rematch seven months later at UFC 320. And if it comes to a championship showdown, Procházka is the kind of guy to master a soul-deflated foe.
2. Men’s bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov
The year could play out as a tug-of-war between current champion Petr Yan and former champion Merab Dvalishvili, who are 1-1 against each other and seem destined to break the tie in a trilogy match. But I believe Nurmagomedov will factor into the championship picture, too. I picked him a year ago to end 2025 with the 135-pound belt, and that was one of the few predictions I got wrong. So, in my grand tradition of doubling down, I’ll take Nurmagomedov once again. I don’t know if he will dethrone Yan or Dvalishvili, but watch out for Umar — and someone please check the blood pressure of Khabib cageside.
3. Men’s flyweight: Alexandre Pantoja
An elbow injury ended his reign in just 26 seconds at UFC 323 on Dec. 6, and Pantoja appears to be out of action for a while. But assuming he returns in 2026, he’ll surely get an immediate rematch with the new champion, Joshua Van. That would be an interesting fight, as Van, though far less experienced than Pantoja at an elite level, would enter the Octagon with the confidence of having the belt. Pantoja is a lot to handle, though, and I see him reclaiming his spot at the top of the mountain before year’s end.
4. Strawweight: Zhang Weili
Zhang might move up to flyweight — maybe after Valentina Shevchenko retires? But for now, Zhang would be best served by returning to 115 pounds. She challenged herself by stepping up to 125 pounds and challenging Shevchenko, and some might say she paid the price in a one-sided loss at UFC 322 in November. But that shouldn’t diminish Zhang’s confidence in fighting women her own size. With all due respect to current strawweight champion Mackenzie Dern, who has grown from one-dimensional to a well-rounded fighter, I don’t see her (or anyone in the division) as a serious threat to Zhang, the once and future queen.
These champions are keepers
Tom Aspinall, heavyweight: Assuming the eye injury that prematurely ended his fight with Ciryl Gane in October doesn’t sideline him all year, Aspinall is likely to continue beating all who step into his path. I see only two figures in the sport who could slow the Englishman’s roll: former champion Jon Jones, if he comes out of retirement, and Dana White, whose tone of disdain after the eye-poke no-contest suggests that, despite what the UFC CEO says, he might not be pulling for his champion. Aspinall wouldn’t be the first UFC heavyweight champ to experience that. Khamzat Chimaev, middleweight: Chimaev won the championship in August by dominating his fight with Dricus Du Plessis, amassing 21 minutes, 40 seconds of control time in the 25-minute bout. I view that as a foreshadowing of Chimaev’s viciously virtuosic year to come. Islam Makhachev, welterweight: If the knee injury that has sidelined Shavkat Rakhmonov for over a year is healed, he could give Makhachev a can’t-miss fight. Rakhmonov is 19-0 and a dangerous finisher. There’s also another 19-0 fighter for the champion to face, young prospect-turned-contender Michael Morales. Will Makhachev spend his year putting the first blemishes on two perfect records? Ilia Topuria, lightweight: He moved up from featherweight to lightweight this year and has expressed interest in rising one more weight class, chasing a showdown with Islam Makhachev at welterweight. But I don’t envision that happening in 2026, especially with Topuria sitting out for an unspecified time to address allegations of domestic abuse. If Topuria returns to the cage, though, it would be reasonable to expect an unfocused and less prepared version. Even so, I cannot envision a downfall for an undefeated champion who has looked indestructible inside the Octagon. Alexander Volkanovski, featherweight: I wouldn’t say Volkanovski is invulnerable. He’s 37 years old and has been knocked out in two of his past three fights. But those defeats came at the clenched fists of the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the game — Makhachev and Topuria. Does anyone among the current crop of 145-pounder fighters have what it takes to vanquish Volk? I don’t think so. Diego Lopes gets his shot Jan. 31, but Volkanovski handled him with little difficulty just nine months ago. Kayla Harrison, women’s bantamweight: Harrison will open the year with a Jan. 24 title defense against Amanda Nunes, and despite it feeling unfathomable to pick against the GOAT, I am doing just that. Nunes has been retired for 2½ years, and at age 37, she could soon learn that rust never sleeps. And Harrison, 35, a two-time Olympic judo gold medalist who has proven to be a quick study in MMA, knows Nunes well from sharing the American Top Team gym for years. Even if Nunes wins at UFC 324, her comeback could be a one-and-done deal, leaving the title available for Harrison to reclaim before 2026 is over. Valentina Shevchenko, women’s flyweight: The division has a couple of rising contenders in Natalia Silva and Erin Blanchfield, and there’s always Father Time to contend with, as Shevchenko is 37 years old. Maybe a year from now, I’ll predict a changing of the guard at 125 pounds. But not this year.
