Best bets for Packers-Bears: Who has the edge in wild-card matchup?
The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on Saturday night in the second game of the NFL’s wild-card weekend. The NFC North rivals split the season series, and the tape really tells a story. So, let’s take a deeper look at both teams, using the previous games to place our top…
The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on Saturday night in the second game of the NFL’s wild-card weekend. The NFC North rivals split the season series, and the tape really tells a story. So, let’s take a deeper look at both teams, using the previous games to place our top bets.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Packers have the ball
Bowen: I expect the Packers to be methodical in their approach, using the running game and taking the throws that are available when Jordan Love sees zone coverage. However, when the Bears play their man schemes, the Packers can cash in. In the Week 14 game, Love completed 9 of 13 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns versus man coverage.
Edge: Packers.
Best bet: Christian Watson can create numbers on out routes and quicks, but we want to see the big throws that get him loose on deep over routes and posts. Watson has 80 or more yards receiving in three of his last five games, with 89 yards (on just four catches) versus Chicago in Week 14. Take Watson over 54.5 yards receiving (-113).
When the Bears have the ball
Bowen: Bears coach Ben Johnson wants to run the ball and deliver body punches in the second half of football games. We’ve seen it. But that also sets up quarterback Caleb Williams on play-action throws out of multiple-tight-end sets, and this Green Bay pass rush has declined since Micah Parsons‘ knee injury.
Edge: Bears.
Best bet: Colston Loveland has emerged as a priority target for Williams, catching at least six passes in back-to-back games. Plus, given the zone-heavy tendencies of the Packers defense, Loveland can operate as an underneath outlet and work the seams. I’m going Loveland over 4.5 receptions (+105).
Staff picks, best bets and props
Bears +1.5 (-112)
Maldonado: Chicago controls pace with the run game, forces turnovers at the highest rate in the league and closes games late. Green Bay moves the ball but struggles to finish drives, especially under pressure. The Bears’ fourth-quarter edge makes them the side to take.
Caleb Williams 34+ pass attempts (+142)
Moody: Williams has averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game over his last 10 contests and recorded at least 34 attempts in both meetings against the Packers earlier this season. With these teams familiar with one another, this matchup has the potential to turn into a high-scoring game, especially with Green Bay dealing with multiple defensive injuries. The Bears will look to exploit this.
Williams UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-112)
Solak: The Bears have had to dig their way out of two multi-score holes against Green Bay this season, and, accordingly, those two games have demanded 35 and 34 pass attempts from Williams. If this game, with a spread of only 1.5 remains a closer contest that allows Chicago to play their preferred style of offense, Williams won’t need to drop back nearly as much. And with his receiver room returning to full health, more completions will become big gains, leading to fewer attempts overall.
Williams OVER 21.5 rushing yards (-112)
Loza: Williams averages 4.5 carries (QB16) and nearly 23 rushing yards per contest (QB8). He ripped off 30 rushing yards when he last faced a Parsons-less Packers defense in Week 16 (he had only 15 rushing yards at Green Bay, with Parsons on the field, in Week 14). Green Bay’s defense has allowed an average of 32 rushing yards per game since Parsons was injured in Week 15. Williams should find some scrambling room and flirt with at least 25 rushing yards Saturday.
Montez Sweat UNDER 0.25 sacks (-140)
Walder: Sweat’s 4.8% pass rush win rate ranks 50th out of 52 qualifying edge rushers. That’s probably underselling his ability a little bit because it might not capture some of his pocket-pushing ability, but still, there’s a reason why the Bears have struggled with their pass rush all year. But it gets worse. Jordan Love has just a 4.3% sack rate this season, seventh-lowest among quarterbacks. And while I’m making this bet either way, if Zach Tom is active, this bet becomes even more attractive. Tom, who Sweat figures to align opposite most often, ranks sixth in pass block win rate among tackles. My model prices this under at -233.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): D’Andre Swift ($13,800). The Bears recorded the fifth-most rushes over the regular season. Ben Johnson figures to stick to that script versus a banged-up Packers defense. Despite Kyle Monangai‘s emergence, Swift has remained the Chicago’s RB1, averaging 15.5 touches per game and 13 fantasy points per contest from Weeks 10-18.
Also in my lineup: Colston Loveland ($6,400). The rookie has emerged over the back half of the regular season, drawing at least five looks in every game since Week 12. He also leads the team in red zone opportunities (13). Chicago’s receiving corps can be tricky to predict, but Loveland’s robust number of high-value targets make him a solid ceiling pick.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Caleb Williams ($15,900) has rushing upside with scramble ability. Even when his throwing accuracy wavers early, volume and four-quarter aggression create ceiling outcomes. His legs matter more than efficiency.
Also in my lineup: DJ Moore ($8,400) is Williams’ first read in big spots. When pressure hits, targets funnel his way. Moore’s role spikes late in the game, giving him a reliable floor with shots at scores.
Moody’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Kyle Monangai ($4,200) is a nice value option and comes at a lower cost than Swift. Monangai has put together an impressive rookie season, and while his usage has been inconsistent, Monangai is an explosive runner. The Packers’ defensive front has struggled late in the regular season, and Monangai could find success running behind a Bears offensive line that finished fifth in run-block win rate.
Also in my lineup: Luther Burden III ($6,600) closed the regular season on a strong note, averaging 5.4 targets per game over his last seven games. He also flashed significant upside, highlighted by a 30.8-point performance in Week 17 against the 49ers. Whether or not Rome Odunze plays, Burden profiles as an excellent DFS value at this price.’
Solak’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Josh Jacobs ($14,400). Expect ownership to come in low on Jacobs, who has been quiet for the last month as he’s dealt with nagging injury. But he’s off the injury report this week for the first time in over a month, and the Packers will look to run the football and shorten the game against a Bears offense that has struggled to consistently put up points against them in the first half. Should be a heavy volume day for a player most of the field passes on.
Also in my lineup: Colston Loveland ($6,400). Despite leading the Bears in target share over the back half of the season, Loveland is priced below all three of the Bears’ starting receivers in showdown. I think the return of Rome Odunze and emergence of Luther Burden III will lead to more distributed production among the wideouts, while Loveland’s role as a reliable stick-mover with red zone utility will go untouched. He’ll be heavily owned, but rightfully so.
Walder’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jordan Love ($15,600). I think this is going to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle where the quarterbacks are going to put up big numbers. The reason? Pass protection. Both of these team rank in the top six in pass block win rate, the Bears rank 31st in pass rush win rate and the Packers are even worse than that if we only look at their pass rushing snaps without Micah Parsons on the field. Love, and his stats, will be the beneficiary.
Also in my lineup: Caleb Williams ($10,600). Yes, this means we’ll have to go cheap with the rest of the lineup. But I want to squeeze both quarterbacks into the same lineup because of exactly what I wrote above. The offensive lines should win the day and lead the way to a passing-driven points bonanza.
